College Playoff Outlook
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Whether it's football or basketball, every Selection Sunday leaves a few teams disappointed in their fate. In the first College Football Playoff, the snubs include Baylor and TCU from out of the Big 12 Conference.
The Horned Frogs blasted Iowa St. 55-3 as 35-point home favorite in their regular-season finale this past weekend. Nevertheless, they fell from third to sixth in the committee's rankings.
Gary Patterson's team finished the regular season with an 11-1 straight-up record. TCU's only loss came by three at Baylor in a game it led by 21 early in the fourth quarter. Since then, the Frogs have won seven in a row and their quality resume wins include scalps of Minnesota (30-7), Oklahoma (37-33), West Va. (31-30) and Kansas St. (41-20), not to mention a 48-10 win at Texas.
Baylor, ranked sixth last week, climbed one spot to fifth after beating Kansas St. 37-28 in Waco. The Bears also finish 11-1 with their lone defeat coming at West Va. They had quality wins vs. TCU (61-58), at Oklahoma (48-10) and vs. K-St. Yes, Art Briles's team played an extremely weak non-conference slate, but its loss at West Virginia isn't nearly as bad as Ohio State's home loss to Virginia Tech (at home, by double digits).
But it's hard to argue against Ohio State getting 'in' with the fourth seed after finishing so strong. I mean, with their third-string quarterback making his first career start, the Buckeyes smashed a quality Wisconsin team 59-0 at the Big Ten Championship Game. Since the loss to the Hokies, Urban Meyer's squad has won 11 in a row, including a 49-37 win at Michigan St.
Ohio State will take on top-seeded Alabama on New Year's Day at the Superdome in New Orleans. Most books opened the Crimson Tide as a 10-point 'chalk.' As of Monday afternoon, the number for the side was 9.5 and the total was 58.
Nick Saban's team took care of business in Atlanta, coasting to a 42-13 win over Missouri as a 14.5-point favorite in the SEC Championship Game. The Tide has been No. 1 since beating previously-unbeaten Mississippi St. three weeks ago.
Saban hasn't faced Meyer since 'Bama trounced Florida 31-6 in 2010 at Bryant-Denny Stadium. In the previous meeting, the Tide thumped the Gators 32-13 at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta. Hours later, Meyer was rushed to the hospital after a fainting spell.
Although Meyer won't acknowledge anything of the sort, you can make a strong case that Saban ran him out of the SEC. So there's that storyline on top of all that's already at stake in the first CFP.
The 2/3 game will take place at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena. This contest will pit second-seeded Oregon against third-seeded and unbeaten Florida State Most spots have the Ducks favored by nine with a total of 71.
The Seminoles will be underdogs for the first time since early in the 2011 campaign when they lost 35-30 at Clemson as 2.5-point 'dogs. Jimbo Fisher's team hasn't tasted defeat since a 2012 home loss to arch-rival Florida.
Since then, FSU has won 29 consecutive games, including last week's 37-35 non-covering win over Georgia Tech at the ACC Championship Game. The 'Noles failed to cover the number as four-point 'chalk' due to a late TD that gave the Yellow Jackets a backdoor cover. They went 3-10 ATS this year and are mired in a 3-11 ATS slump dating back to a non-cover vs. Auburn to win it all last season.
The next set of significant bowl games include Mississippi State vs. Georgia Tech (Orange Bowl), Ole Miss vs. TCU (Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl), Baylor vs. Michigan State (Cotton Bowl) and Boise State vs. Arizona (Fiesta).
The Bulldogs are favored by seven over the Yellow Jackets, while the Rebels are three-point underdogs to the Horned Frogs. Baylor is a three-point favorite vs. the Spartans, while the Wildcats are four-point 'chalk' to the Broncos, who have a pair of Fiesta Bowl wins over TCU and Oklahoma over the last decade.
5Dimes has posted lines for the potential matchups in the CFP finals in Arlington at Jerry World. FSU is a three-point favorite over Ohio State, but the 'Noles are 10-point underdogs vs. Alabama.
Oregon is favored by 9.5 (with a -125 price) vs. Ohio State (+9.5, -105), while the Ducks are 3.5-point underdogs to 'Bama.
You can wager on these games at those lines right now. If the matchups don't materialize, then the wagers are refunded. The three games excluding Oregon-Ohio State have prices of -115 either way.