UCF (4 - 1) at LOUISVILLE (6 - 0) - 10/18/2013, 8:00 PM
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Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
CENTRAL FLORIDA vs. LOUISVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Central Florida's last 14 games on the road
Central Florida is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Louisville is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
Louisville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Central Florida at Louisville
Central Florida: 1-6 ATS after having won 2 out of their last 3 games
Louisville: 9-0 ATS off 2 or more consecutive unders
Central Florida at Louisville
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
In what is most likely the most difficult hurdle remaining on its cupcake schedule, Louisville (6-0 straight up, 3-3 against the spread) will take on Central Florida at Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium this Friday.
As of Thursday morning, most betting shops had Charlie Strong’s squad installed as a 12.5-point favorite with a total of 53. Gamblers can take the Golden Knights on the money line for a +400 payout (risk $100 to win $400). For first-half wagers, U of L is favored by seven with a total of 27.
Louisville has won eight consecutive games dating back to last season, including last Thursday’s 24-10 non-covering triumph over Rutgers as a 19-point home ‘chalk.’ The 34 combined points easily stayed ‘under’ the 55.5-point total.
Junior quarterback Teddy Bridgewater completed 21-of-31 passes for 310 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. Bridgewater was playing without his leading receiver DaVante Parker, who was out with a shoulder injury.
Damian Copeland picked up the slack with a team-high eight receptions for 115 yards. Senorise Perry rushed 13 times for 104 yards and one touchdown.
Central Florida (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) has had two weeks to prep for this crucial AAC showdown. George O’Leary’s team failed to cover the number for the first time in its last contest, a 24-17 win at Memphis as a 9.5-point favorite.
Truth be told, UCF was fortunate to escape the Liberty Bowl with a victory. Trailing 17-10 with 2:05 remaining, RB Storm Johnson coughed up a fumble just as he was about to cross the goal line. Fortunately for the Knights, OT Chris Martin recovered the ball in the end zone for the tying score.
On the ensuing kick, Memphis fumbled and Drico Johnson scooped up the ball and returned it 12 yards for the go-ahead score. With the Tigers threatening to tie in the waning moments, UCF secured the victory thanks to Terrance Plummer’s second interception of the game.
Johnson ran for a team-high 86 yards on 16 carries. QB Blake Bortles had a shaky performance, connecting on just 17-of-36 throws for 160 yards and no TDs.
For the season, Bortles has completed 64.8 percent of his attempts for 1,334 yards with a 9/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Johnson has run for a team-high 455 yards and seven TDs, averaging 5.2 yards per carry.
Meanwhile, Bridgewater has connected on 71.0 percent of his throws for 1,872 yards with an 18/2 TD-INT ratio. He got some good news Wednesday when Parker practiced and was upgraded to ‘probable.’ Parker has made 21 receptions for 375 yards and six TDs, while Copeland has hauled in 23 catches for 379 yards and three scores.
Perry has rushed for a team-high 402 yards and five TDs while averaging 6.0 YPC. The Cardinals are loaded in the backfield with three quality options. Dominique Brown has run for 271 yards and two TDs while also averaging 6.0 YPC, and Auburn transfer Michael Dyer has 43 carries for 220 yards and two TDs with a 5.1 YPC average.
Since Strong took over in 2010 after a long career as a defensive coordinator at several SEC schools, Louisville has compiled a 9-12 spread record as a home favorite. On O’Leary’s watch, UCF has posted an 18-15 spread record as a road underdog.
The ‘under’ is 5-1 overall for U of L, 3-1 in its home games. The ‘under’ is 4-1 overall for UCF, 2-1 in its road assignments.
These schools haven’t met since 1985 when Louisville captured a 42-21 home win in a pick ‘em matchup.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
California is the nation’s only school with a 0-6 spread record. In addition, the Bears are an atrocious 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as home underdogs. They host Oregon St. this weekend as double-digit ‘dogs.
Georgia RB Todd Gurley and safety Tray Matthews were downgraded to ‘doubtful’ for Saturday’s game at Vanderbilt. Gurley will most likely miss his third straight game since spraining his ankle in a 44-41 home win over LSU.
The ‘over’ is 6-0 for UGA, 4-2 for Vandy. The Commodores are 12-4 ATS at home under James Franklin.
South Carolina leading WR Bruce Ellington is ‘questionable’ Saturday at Tennessee. Ellington strained his foot in last week’s 52-7 clubbing of Arkansas in Fayetteville. He was in a walking boot Monday and Tuesday but did practice on a limited basis Wednesday. The Gamecocks will get WR Shaq Roland back for the Vols after serving a three-game suspension.
Shhh! Keep this a secret but South Carolina QB Connor Shaw is enjoying another outstanding season. He has 10 TD passes without throwing an interception. While the media keeps making a big deal out of Jadeveon Clowney doing or not doing this or that, Shaw and Mike Davis have led the Gamecocks to a 5-1 start with lots of winnable games in front of them. Check out my recent blog post on VI for some more thoughts on South Carolina and Stanford and their longshot future odds.
The ‘under’ is 4-1-1 overall for Florida, 3-0 in its road assignments. The Gators are short favorites Saturday at Missouri with the total at 44.
UCF at Louisville: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Central Florida Knights at Louisville Cardinals (-12, 53)
Louisville didn’t silence the critics of its schedule with a difficult home win in its most recent performance, but will attempt to remain among the 14 unbeaten teams in FBS on Friday when it hosts Central Florida. The sixth-ranked Cardinals are coming off a 24-10 victory against Rutgers, one of the two teams they have faced with a winning record. Louisville’s opponents have combined to go 13-23, while none of the six remaining teams left on the schedule are ranked in the Top 25.
Cardinals quarterback Teddy Bridgewater had an off-day by his lofty standards last Thursday, committing two turnovers while leading the offense to its lowest point total of the season. He may not catch much of a break against the Knights, who allow 16.6 points per game – good for the second-best mark in the American Athletic Conference. Central Florida has its own prolific signal-caller in Blake Bortles, who ranks second in the conference behind Bridgewater in passing efficiency (160.4).
LINE: Louisville opened as a 10.5-point fave and is now -12. The total is currently 53.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with partly cloudy skies.
ABOUT CENTRAL FLORIDA (4-1, 1-0 AAC): While they only have one win against a ranked team in school history, the Knights have established themselves as a quality foe (34-31 win at Penn State, 28-25 home loss against South Carolina). Although Central Florida ranks fourth in the conference in passing offense, wide receivers Breshad Perriman (fourth) and Rannell Hall (eighth) are among the top 10 in receiving yards. Perriman and Hall have combined for five of the team’s six 100-yard receiving efforts, the school’s most since 2006.
ABOUT LOUISVILLE (6-0, 2-0): With the Cardinals’ vaunted offense unable to score at least 30 points for the first time this season, the defense collected four interceptions (most in a game since 2000), eight sacks and held Rutgers to 12 yards rushing. Louisville has allowed 12 yards rushing or fewer two times over the last three games and a total of 63 yards on the ground over that same stretch. The Cardinals are yielding an FBS-low 7.3 points and 229.5 total yards per game, good for second in FBS.
TRENDS:
* Knights are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Under is 19-7 in Cardinals last 26 games in October.
* Cardinals are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 Friday games.
* Under is 5-1 in Knights last six games overall.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. The Knights (tied for sixth, plus-1.4) and Cardinals (tied for eighth, plus-1.33) each rank in the top 10 in the FBS in turnover margin.
2. Central Florida won its first three road contests for the first time in school history.
3. Louisville WRs DeVante Parker (shoulder) – the team’s top receiver who missed the Rutgers game – and Kai De La Cruz (groin) will be game-time decisions.
NCAAF Week 8
Since '07, Central Florida is 12-7 as a road underdog; they won 34-31 at Penn State in only game as dog (+4) this year. Louisville is 3-0 as home favorite this year, winning lined home games by 42-72-14 points, after being 10-17 as home faves from '07-'12. Knights' only loss was 28-25 at home to South Carolina, but Bortles still threw for 358 yards that game. Kentucky was only team that gained more than 273 yards vs Louisville this year; they're also +8 in turnovers. UCF hasn't played in 13 days, Cardinals in 8 days.
Armadillosports.com
Friday's American Action
By Sportsbook.ag
CENTRAL FLORIDA KNIGHTS (4-1) at LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (6-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Louisville -13.5 & 55.5
Opening Line & Total: Cardinals -12 & 54
No. 8 Louisville attempts to stay undefeated behind the arm of Heisman hopeful QB Teddy Bridgewater as UCF looks for a huge upset in this American Athletic Conference matchup.
Bridgewater and the Cardinals have been outstanding this season, with their closest game coming last week against Rutgers where they had only a touchdown lead late in the fourth quarter, eventually winning 24-10. UCF has looked strong lately as well, beating Penn State 34-31 on the road three weeks ago and then nearly pulling off an upset against South Carolina the next week in a 28-25 loss. UCF also pulled off an unusual win in Memphis this past week, scoring two touchdowns (both fumble recoveries) in nine seconds late in the fourth quarter en route to a 24-17 victory. The Knights have been exceptional on the road in their past eight games (6-2 SU) and are 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) away from home this season.
But they will have the task of facing a Louisville team that has won 10 of its past 11 games at home SU and has outscored its opponents by 41.2 PPG on average this season in Louisville. This meeting will be the first between these two programs.
UCF has looked great this year and nearly pulled off a huge upset earlier in the season in its only loss against South Carolina, losing 28-25, but did not surrender a single point to the Gamecocks in the first half. QB Blake Bortles has enjoyed another strong season with 1,334 passing yards, nine touchdowns and only three interceptions. All three of Bortles' interceptions came in the games against tough opponents, Penn State and South Carolina. The duo of WR Breshad Perriman (397 rec. yards, 1 TD) and WR Rannell Hall (373 rec. yards, 3 TD) has combined to catch 39 of the 95 receptions (41%) for the team. Helping the passing game out has been the ever-consistent HB Storm Johnson. He has carried between 16 and 20 carries in each of the five games and has totaled 455 rushing yards (5.2 YPC) with seven touchdowns.
The Knights defense is what has been really impressive this season, only allowing 16.6 points per game (11th in the nation) and much of their success can be attributed to forcing 12 turnovers against their opponents, including eight over the past two games.
Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater has done everything that was expected of him this season, as he has thrown for 1,812 yards, 18 touchdowns and only two interceptions, leading the Louisville pass attack to 14th-best in the nation. Star WR Devonte Parker (375 rec. yards, 6 TD) is listed as questionable for this game with a shoulder injury that forced him to watch from the sidelines against Rutgers. WR Damian Copeland has filled in nicely as the number one receiving option for Bridgewater, and had eight receptions for 115 yards in Parker's absence last week. Also picking up some of the offensive slack last week was HB Senorise Perry, who ran for 104 yards on 13 carries (8.0 YPC) and one touchdown; bringing his season numbers to 402 yards on 67 carries (6.0 YPC) with five touchdowns.
On the defensive side of the ball, look for LB Preston Brown to lead the nation's second-ranked rushing defense (68.3 rush YPG allowed) and fifth-ranked pass defense (161.2 pass YPG allowed). The Louisville defense has not allowed more than 13 points in any of its six games this year, and has given up the least amount of points per game in the nation (7.3 PPG).