CFL Betting Recap - Week 14
By Joe Williams
League Betting Notes
Favorites went 3-1 SU in Week 14
Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 ATS in Week 14
Home teams posted a 4-0 SU record in Week 14
Home teams posted a 3-1 ATS record in Week 14
The 'Under' went 3-1 in Week 14
Team Betting Notes
Calgary (11-1-1) won an entertaining divisional game against Winnipeg (8-5), cooling off the Blue Bombers 36-34. It was Winnipeg's first loss since July 21, also against the Stampeders. In fact the Bombers are 8-2 SU and 6-2-2 ATS against everyone else, and 0-3 SU/ATS against Calgary this season. The good news for Winnipeg is they will not see the Stamps again unless they meet in the playoffs.
Ottawa (6-5-1) hammered visiting Toronto (5-8 ), improving to 2-1 SU/ATS against the Argonauts this season. The 'under' is now 5-2 over the past seven games, and 7-3-1 over their past 11 outings.
The Argonauts are struggling against the number lately. They opened 4-2 ATS in their first six games, but they're just 1-6 SU/ATS over their past seven outings.
Saskatchewan (3-10) has won back-to-back games for the first time this season, topping Hamilton (6-7) by a 20-18 score as 5 1/2-point underdogs at home. The Roughriders improved to 4-0-1 ATS over the past five games after opening the season 2-6 ATS in the first eight games.
The Tiger Cats have failed to cover in a season-worst three straight games, and they're just 2-6 ATS over the past eight outings.
Edmonton (6-7) got untracked with a 27-23 victory over the BC Lions (8-4), snapping a three-game winning streak to B.C. The Lions entered 7-1 ATS in their past eight games. These sides will face each other Oct. 22 in Vancouver.
CFL Betting Notes - Week 15
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
Week 14 Betting Recap
Action in Week 14 got underway last Friday with Ottawa getting past Toronto 29-12 as a 5½-point home favorite in a key matchup for playoff position in the East Division. Edmonton bounced back from a bad loss last week with a 27-23 victory against West Division rival British Columbia as a slight 1½-point favorite at home in the backend of Friday’s double-header.
In Saturday’s CFL action, the biggest game of the week ended with Calgary beating Winnipeg 36-34 as a 9½-point home favorite to extend its straight-up winning streak to 10 games while ending the Blue Bombers’ impressive run at seven games. Saskatchewan won for the second week in a row by taking down Hamilton 20-18 as 5½-point home underdogs to close out Week 14. The following is a look at all four matchups this weekend in the CFL.
Friday, Sept. 30
Edmonton Eskimos (6-7 SU, 4-8-1) vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers (8-5 SU, 7-5-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Winnipeg -3
Total: 54
Game Overview
Edmonton’s much-needed win last week snapped a straight-up three-game skid and it was the first time it covered against the spread in its last five outings. Credit the play of running back Shakir Bell, who rushed for 108 yards and a score on 23 carries. Quarterback Mike Reilly added another 300 yards to his CFL-high 4,353 passing yards this season and his one touchdown throw gives him 21 on the year.
The Blue Bombers’ furious come-back attempt against Calgary last week with 20 points in the fourth quarter was almost enough to preserve a very impressive seven-game winning streak and they did serve notice that they are for real as a Grey Cup contender. Matt Nichols ended the game with 287 yards passing while completing 27 of his 44 passing attempts and Clarence Denmark was his leading receiver with nine catches for 84 yards and a score.
Betting Trends
These two West Division rivals have split the first two meetings this season with the road team winning each time both SU and ATS. Edmonton has a 6-2 edge ATS over the last eight meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in five of the last six games.
Saturday, Oct. 1
Calgary Stampeders (11-1-1 SU, 10-3 ATS) vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -3
Total: 55
Game Overview
Behind 10 SU wins in a row while going a highly profitable 8-2 ATS, the Stampeders have now established themselves as the Gold Standard in the CFL. Bo Levi Mitchell is on a clear path to being the league’s Most Outstanding Player following yet another 300-plus passing yards performance. He threw two more touchdown strikes in last week’s crucial win to raise his league-high total to 24. The Stampeders also gained 100 yards on the ground in a balanced offensive effort.
Once again, the Tiger-Cats’ inconsistency on both sides of the ball cost them a game that they were favored to win. They have now failed to cover in their last three games closing as favorites, so maybe they will have better luck this week as underdogs at home. Zach Collaros completed 26-of-40 passing attempts for 310 yards and a score in last week’s stunning last-second loss to Saskatchewan, but with the game on the line Hamilton’s defense could not make the stops when it needed to the most.
Betting Trends
Calgary won the first meeting this season 30-24 in late August as a four-point home favorite. It is has now won the last 10 meetings SU while going an even 5-5 ATS. The total in that game stayed UNDER 55 and it has stayed UNDER in nine of the last 10 games between the two.
Ottawa RedBlacks (6-5-1 SU, 5-7 ATS) vs. British Columbia Lions (8-4 SU, 9-3 ATS)
Point-spread: BC -6
Total: 53½
Game Overview
Ottawa’s Week 14 win has it back on top in the East, but it has still been a rough ride for bettors with a 2-6 record ATS in its last eight games. The total stayed UNDER 53½ points against the Argonauts and it has stayed UNDER in five of the RedBlacks’ last seven contests. Trevor Harris turned in another solid performance with 274 yards passing while connecting on 71.4 percent of his 35 throws, but the bulk of the team’s 29 points came on five field goals and 109 kick return for a score on a missed Toronto field goal.
The Lions’ loss to Edmonton pretty much has them fighting for second place in the West right now. This setback snapped a three-game winning streak both SU and ATS that started with a six-point road victory against Ottawa. Last week, Jonathon Jennings threw for 278 yards against the Eskimos, but he only completed 57.1 percent of his 28 passing attempts with two completions going to the wrong team as interceptions.
Betting Trends
BC has won three of the last five meetings SU including that 29-23 victory on Aug. 25 as a 2½-point road underdog. The RedBlacks have the slight 3-2 edge ATS and the total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in all five games.
Sunday, Oct. 2
Toronto Argonauts (5-8 SU, 5-8 ATS) vs. Montreal Alouettes (3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS)
Point-spread: PICK
Total: 49
Game Overview
Toronto’s loss to Ottawa last week was its sixth setback both SU and ATS in its last seven games and it now has to be concerned about even making the playoffs this season with Edmonton moving in position to be a crossover team from the West. A change at quarterback to newly acquired Drew Willy in place of an ineffective Dan LeFevour did not provide the necessary spark against the RedBlacks and an injured Ricky Ray (ribs) is still a few weeks away from returning to the lineup.
The Alouettes are coming off a bye, but with Saskatchewan winning its last two games, they are in position to be considered the worst team in the CFL right now. Montreal has averaged 20.8 points a game this season and it has not scored more than 18 points in three of the four games in its current four-game SU losing streak. It has only covered a spread twice in its last seven outings.
Betting Trends
Toronto won the first meeting this season 30-17 in late July as a 4½-point home favorite, but Montreal still has the slight 3-2 edge both SU and ATS in the last five meetings. The total went OVER 46 in that first game after staying UNDER in the previous six meetings.
EDMONTON (6 - 7) at WINNIPEG (8 - 5) - 9/30/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 3-2 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 5-1 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY (11 - 1 - 1) at HAMILTON (6 - 7) - 10/1/2016, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
CALGARY is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
CALGARY is 123-89 ATS (+25.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1996.
CALGARY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) off a division game this season.
CALGARY is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in games played on turf this season.
CALGARY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) off a win over a division rival this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 3-3 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 6-0 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
6 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
OTTAWA (6 - 5 - 1) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (8 - 4) - 10/1/2016, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OTTAWA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 3-2 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 3-2 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO (5 - 8 ) at MONTREAL (3 - 9) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
MONTREAL is 11-27 ATS (-18.7 Units) in home games in October games since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 3-3 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 3-3 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON vs. WINNIPEG
Edmonton is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
Edmonton is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games
Winnipeg is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games at home
Winnipeg is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Edmonton
CALGARY vs. HAMILTON
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Calgary's last 6 games when playing Hamilton
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Calgary's last 8 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Hamilton's last 6 games when playing Calgary
Hamilton is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Calgary
OTTAWA vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
Ottawa is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games when playing British Columbia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Ottawa's last 5 games when playing British Columbia
British Columbia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of British Columbia's last 5 games when playing Ottawa
TORONTO vs. MONTREAL
Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Toronto is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Montreal is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Montreal's last 9 games when playing at home against Toronto
Edmonton at Winnipeg
Edmonton: 33-58 ATS after a win by 8 or less points
Winnipeg: 12-3 ATS in home games after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored
Calgary at Hamilton
Calgary: 8-2 ATS off a division game
Hamilton: 12-3 UNDER in home games
Ottawa at British Columbia
Ottawa: 9-2 ATS in a road game where the total is between 49.5 and 56
British Columbia: 17-33 ATS in home games after being outgained by opp by 70 or more total yards last game
Toronto at Montreal
Toronto: 1-9 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games
Montreal: 6-0 UNDER in home games off a loss against a division rival
CFL Week 15
Edmonton (6-7) @ Winnipeg (8-5) – Road team won both meetings this year; Eskimos (-3.5) won 20-16 in Winnipeg July 14, then lost rematch 30-23 (-9.5) at home two weeks later, snapping 7-game winning streak against Blue Bombers. Five of last six series games stayed under the total. Edmonton is 5-1 when they allow 25 or less points, 1-6 if they allow more- they lost three of last four games, with last two losses in OT. Winnipeg lost four of last five games; under is 5-1-1 in their last seven. Bombers are 1-3 as a favorite- they lost their last three home games SU.
Calgary (11-1-1) @ Hamilton (6-7) – Stampeders won last ten series games, winning 30-24 (-4) in first meeting this year; last four were decided by 6 or less points. Stamps won last four visits here, by 11-24-10-3 points- they beat TiCats 20-16 in Grey Cup two years ago. Last eight series games stayed under total. Calgary won its last 10 gmaes, scored 30+ points in last six; they’re 4-1-1 SU on road, 3-1 as road favorite. Hamilton is 5-1 when it scores 31+ points, 1-6 when it doesn’t; they’re 2-2 as a dog this year and lost last two home games, 28-3/28-24.
Ottawa (6-5-1) @ British Columbia (8-4) – Lions (+2.5) won 29-23 in Ottawa August 25, scoring TD with 1:36 left for the win; Redblacks averaged 8.4 yard/play that night. BC is 3-2 vs RedBlacks (under 4-0-1), splitting pair here- they lost 31-18 at home to Ottawa LY, beat them 41-3 in 2014. Ottawa is 4-2 on road this year, 1-1-1 as road dogs; five of their last seven games stayed under the total. Lions won three of last four games, are 3-2 at home, 2-2 as home favorites; their last three games all stayed under.
Toronto (5-8 ) @ Montreal (3-9) – Argos lost six of last seven games after a 4-2 start; they lost three in row on road, by 13-17-17 points. Over is 4-2-1 in their last seven games. Montreal is 1-5 at home this year with only win over Saskatchewan. Teams split last 14 series games; Argonauts (-4.5) won first meeting this year 30-17 July 25. Argos won five of last six visits here, in series where home team lost 10 of last 12 meetings. Toronto Under is 13-3 in last 16 series games. Alouettes covered once in their last nine home games.
Armadillosports.com
StatFox Super Situations
CALGARY at HAMILTON
Play On - Home underdogs or pick (HAMILTON) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% in the second half of the season 23-3 since 1997. ( 88.5% | 19.7 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )
CALGARY at HAMILTON
Play Against - Any team vs the the 1rst half line (CALGARY) after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team 41-10 since 1997. ( 80.4% | 30.0 units ) 1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )
OTTAWA at BRITISH COLUMBIA
Play Against - Any team vs the money line (OTTAWA) an average offensive team (23-28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-32 PPG) after 9+ games, after allowing 14 points or less last game 28-4 since 1997. ( 87.5% | 0.0 units )
StatFox Super Situations
TORONTO at MONTREAL
Play On - Underdogs or pick (TORONTO) off a road loss, when playing on a Sunday
62-27 since 1997. ( 69.7% | 32.3 units ) 3-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 3.0 units )
TORONTO at MONTREAL
Play On - Any team vs the money line (MONTREAL) poor rushing team (70-95 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/G) after 9+ games, after gaining 95 or less rushing yards in 4 straight games 22-6 since 1997. ( 78.6% | 0.0 units ) 2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )
TORONTO at MONTREAL
Play Against - Road teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (TORONTO) after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses, in October games 28-7 since 1997. ( 80.0% | 20.3 units )