CFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Week 10 from various handicappers and websites
CFL Betting Recap - Week 9
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
League Betting Notes
Favorites went 4-0 SU in Week 9
Favorites went 4-0 ATS in Week 9
Home/road teams posted a 2-2 SU record in Week 8
Home/road teams posted a 2-2 ATS record in Week 8
The 'Under' went 2-1-1 in Week 9
Analysis
It was a 'chalky' week in the CFL as all four favorites won straight up and against the spread. All four of the matchups were divisional battles and things got a little interesting in the competitive West as Edmonton suffered its first loss of the season while Calgary inched closer with a road victory.
Even though we saw three teams post 30-plus points on the scoreboard, the 'under' produced a 2-1-1 record in Week 9.
Team Betting Notes
For the second straight week, British Columbia looked like a different team, especially on the offensive side of the ball. After getting embarrassed 41-8 at Saskatchewan in Week 8, the Lions were stifled 21-17 at home last Friday. It was the first time this season that BC had dropped back-to-back games. The 'under' has now cashed in three straight and is 6-3 overall.
Edmonton's chances of going undefeated this season were haulted on Friday as the club dropped a 33-26 decision at Winnipeg. The Eskimos were listed as short road underdogs and were catching points for just the third time this season. The 'over' connected in the setback and is now 4-1 in their last five games.
Hamilton (0-8 ) remained winless on the season as it suffered a 37-18 home loss to Ottawa on Friday. The Tiger-Cats actually held a 10-6 lead after the first quarter at Tim Horton's Stadium before getting outscored 31-8 over the final 45 minutes. The T-Cats haven't held an opponent under 30 points this season, which has helped the 'over' go 5-2-1. The team will be off in Week 10 and returning on Sept. 4 versus Toronto.
The Alouettes and Argonauts completed their home-and-home series on Saturday and Toronto earned the split at home. Montreal earned a 21-9 win at home in Week 8 but it was all Argos on Saturday as they cruised to a 38-6 victory. They led 35-0 at halftime but only a combined nine points were scored in the final 30 minutes, which helped the 'under' sweep the series. With the win, Toronto is back in first place of the East division.
The RedBlacks snapped their second three-game skid of the season on Friday with a road win over Hamilton. Bettors should note that Ottawa is now 4-0 ATS on the road this season despite going 1-3 SU.
The Blue Bombers extended their winning streak to four games this past Thursday with their 33-26 home win over previously unbeaten Edmonton. The club is 3-1 ATS during this run and is 6-2 overall versus the number, which is the best mark in the CFL. Winnipeg hits the road for back-to-back games over the next two weeks.
Saskatchewan was on bye in Week 9 but will be tested next Friday when its visits Edmonton, who is coming off its first defeat of the season.
WINNIPEG (6 - 2) at MONTREAL (3 - 5) - 8/24/2017, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1996.
WINNIPEG is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 52 over the last 2 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in August games over the last 2 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
MONTREAL is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games when playing on a Thursday over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 3-1 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 3-2 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN (3 - 4) at EDMONTON (7 - 1) - 8/25/2017, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 130-95 ATS (+25.5 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
EDMONTON is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 52 over the last 2 seasons.
EDMONTON is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 52.5 and 56 over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-2 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 4-1 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA (5 - 4) at OTTAWA (2 - 6 - 1) - 8/26/2017, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OTTAWA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 92-66 ATS (+19.4 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 69-47 ATS (+17.3 Units) in road games off a division game since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 27-10 ATS (+16.0 Units) in road games in August games since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 2-2 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
OTTAWA is 2-2 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO (4 - 5) at CALGARY (6 - 1 - 1) - 8/26/2017, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a win over a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
CALGARY is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
CALGARY is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in August games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 4-1 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 5-0 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG @ MONTREAL
Winnipeg is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Winnipeg's last 11 games on the road
Montreal is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games at home
SASKATCHEWAN @ EDMONTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Saskatchewan's last 15 games
Edmonton is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Edmonton is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan
BRITISH COLUMBIA @ OTTAWA
British Columbia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
British Columbia is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing Ottawa
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Ottawa's last 6 games when playing British Columbia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ottawa's last 5 games when playing at home against British Columbia
TORONTO @ CALGARY
Toronto is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Calgary
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Toronto's last 10 games when playing on the road against Calgary
Calgary is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Calgary is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
WINNIPEG vs. MONTREAL
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 6 games
Winnipeg is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games at home
Montreal is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
SASKATCHEWAN vs. EDMONTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Saskatchewan's last 5 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Saskatchewan is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
Edmonton is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing Saskatchewan
Edmonton is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. OTTAWA
British Columbia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
British Columbia is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing Ottawa
Ottawa is 2-6-1 SU in its last 9 games ,
Ottawa is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing British Columbia
TORONTO vs. CALGARY
Toronto is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Toronto is 5-16 SU in its last 21 games
Calgary is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Calgary's last 10 games when playing at home against Toronto
WINNIPEG vs. MONTREAL
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 6 games
Winnipeg is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games at home
Montreal is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
SASKATCHEWAN vs. EDMONTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Saskatchewan's last 5 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Saskatchewan is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
Edmonton is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing Saskatchewan
Edmonton is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. OTTAWA
British Columbia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
British Columbia is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing Ottawa
Ottawa is 2-6-1 SU in its last 9 games ,
Ottawa is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing British Columbia
TORONTO vs. CALGARY
Toronto is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Toronto is 5-16 SU in its last 21 games
Calgary is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Calgary's last 10 games when playing at home against Toronto
CFL Week 10
Winnipeg (6-2) @ Montreal (3-5) — Alouettes led by two TD’s at Winnipeg with 1:00 to play four weeks ago, but blew game 41-40; Blue Bombers are now 9-3 in last 12 series games, winning five of last six visits here. Over is 5-3 in last eight series games. Winnipeg won its last four games, scoring 33+ in all four games- they’ve scored average of 36.8 pts/game in last six games, five of which went over total. Montreal lost three of last four games; they’re 3-1 at home, with only home loss 23-16 to BCLions. Under is 6-2 in Alouette games this season.
Saskatchewan (3-4) @ Edmonton (7-1) — Eskimos lost at Winnipeg last week, their first loss of season after seven wins, five by 5 or less points. Edmonton won five of last six games against the Roughriders; two of their three meetings LY went to OT. Three of last four series games went over total. Riders are 0-3 on road this season, 1-2 as a road underdog, losing by 1-17-23 points while scoring 13.7 pts/game. Three of their last four games stayed under. Edmonton is 4-0 at home but only 1-3 vs spread as a home favorite. Four of their last five games went over.
BC Lions (5-4) @ Ottawa (2-6-1) — Lions beat Ottawa 29-23/40-33 in LY’s meetings; they’re 4-2 overall vs Ottawa— under was 4-1-1 in those games. BC lost three of last four games, scoring 8-17 points in losses the last two weeks. Lions’ last three games stayed under; they’re 3-2 on road, 1-1 as a road underdog. Five of Ottawa’s six losses are by 4 or less points; RedBlacks are 1-3-1 at home; they’re 2-3 vs spread as a favorite this season. Under is 5-1-1 in Ottawa’s last seven games.
Toronto (4-5) @ Calgary (6-1-1) — Stampeders (-6) won 41-24 at Toronto three weeks ago, their 7th win in a row over the Argonauts, who’ve lost last three visits to Calgary, by 7-5-18 points. Under is 8-2 in last ten series games played here. Toronto snapped 3-game skid with win over Montreal last week; Argos are 1-3 on road, 1-3 as a road underdog, with losses by 8-11-12 points, and the lone win 26-25 at Ottawa. Calgary won/covered its last four games; they’re 3-0 at home, 2-1 as a home favorite, winning by 4-17-59 points- this is their first home game in a month.
Armadillosports.com
CFL Pick & Prediction: Winnipeg at Montreal
By Allen Moody
Bangthebook.com
Just a single game in the Canadian Football League tonight, as Winnipeg visits Montreal. The Bombers are favored by 1 and the total on the game is 55.5.
So far this season, home teams are 16-20-1 against the spread and totals are 17-19-1. After a brutal start to the season, favorites are also 16-20-1 against the number and away favorites are 6-6-1 ATS. Totals above 55 are 7-10-1 this season.
These same two teams played a memorable 41-40 contest last month, as the Alouettes typical tough defense was beat-up a little bit, but the offense had a surprisingly strong game, netting 495 totals yards, including 183 on the ground. That led to a game that was far different than their previous meetings, which had been somewhat low scoring. The oddsmakers have also made a bit of an adjustment as the total on the first game was 50.5, which is five points lower than the number we’re faced with tonight.
The Blue Bombers come into this game off handing Edmonton its first loss of the season and Winnipeg has had its ground game going, picking up 311 yards the past two games, although things shouldn’t be quite as easy against Montreal’s defensive front.
Winnipeg has a home and home series against Saskatchewan beginning next week, so won’t be looking ahead, although they can be forgiven a bit if they suffer a slight letdown. The Bombers are 3-1 on the road and at home this season, with the biggest difference being points scored on the road, which is 10 points higher.
The Blue Bombers have gone over in five of their last six games and Andrew Harris had over 100 yards rushing and receiving last week, the first time a CFL player accomplished that feat since 2010. Matt Nichols has thrown 160 passes without an interception, one reason why they’ve won four in a row.
The Alouettes enter this game off a dismal performance in a 38-6 loss to Toronto, gaining only 140 yards, including less than 100 through the air, which led to the benching of Darian Durant. The Alouettes are 3-1 at home this season and 0-4 on the road, where they allow 31.5 points per game as opposed to 31.5 on the road.
My numbers make this one Winnipeg 29-22, so I’ll grab the under 55.5 in this one, as it’s unlikely the teams have another shootout, and believe Montreal’s defense will make a better showing.
CFL Pick & Prediction: Saskatchewan at Edmonton
By Allen Moody
Bangthebook.com
Tough loss with the under 55.5 in last night’s Montreal game, as the teams were tied 23-23 at the end of regulation, only to score 19 points in the overtime session. The loss drops us to 15-10-1 on the season, as we’ve now lost a couple of games in similar fashion. That’s life betting the CFL.
Tonight’s game is a bit of a tough one to figure out, as Saskatchewan visits Edmonton and the Eskimos are favored by 5.5 with a total of 54. My numbers have the Eskimos winning 34-20.
The Roughriders have been horrible on the road this season, going 0-3 and are getting outscored by 11 points. At home, Saskatchewan has been a completely different team, going 3-1, which includes a 41-8 thumping of British Columbia, and are outscoring foes by 13.5 points per game. The Roughriders are coming off a bye week, so they’ve had a chance to let that victory soak in a little bit and shouldn’t suffer a letdown from that win.
Letdown is also a bit of a possibility for the Eskimos, who were knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten last week, and have a clash with 6-1-1 Calgary up next. But Edmonton is 4-0 at home this season, although they are just 1-3 ATS in those four victories, as three of the four wins were by five points or less, so the points may be a bit more meaningful than you would normally expect in a game. Overall, despite sporting a 7-1 record, the Eskimos have won only once by more than a touchdown, so if a team is due to lose a few it could very well be Edmonton.
On the other hand, the Eskimos are starting to get healthier after having to make quite a few changes over the past few weeks and most of the returning players are on the defensive side of the ball, although the offense will also get a bit of a boost.
From a betting standpoint, you would think the line on this one would be a bit higher, with a 7-1 team hosting a 3-4 squad. The betting public apparently agrees, as nearly 70% of the wagers in this game have come in on the home team, yet the line dropped from 6 to 5.5.
I’m not in any big hurry to go against the numbers and take Saskatchewan, but not real anxious to lay the points in what is a bit of a tough spot for the Eskimos, so will take the under 54 and hope the defensive players returning for Edmonton make a bit of a difference.
Week 9 CFL Pick & Prediction: Toronto at Calgary
By Allen Moody
Bangthebook.com
The Toronto Argonauts visit the Calgary Stampeders in the final CFL game of the week tonight, where the Stampeders are favored by 10 and the total on the game is at 54.5. The two teams have been the best two in terms of yardage allowed, but Calgary has a much more efficient offense, which is they are 6-1-1 and the Argonauts are 4-5, but they are leading the East Division. All five teams in the West have a better record than Toronto, something that will likely come to light when the playoffs start and the CFL’s crossover rules come into effect.
The Argonauts are led by 37-year-old Ricky Ray at quarterback and he’s having another solid season, ranking second in passing yards. He did struggle a little bit in the first meeting of the year between the two teams, throwing for less than 200 yards and an interception in Calgary’s 41-24 victory in Toronto.
Although the Argonauts are 4-5, although all of their wins have come against the much-weaker East Division. The Argonauts are just 1-3 on the road this season and have dropped the last five games to the Stampeders. The Argonauts scored 21.7 points on the road and allow 29.7.
Calgary is 3-0-1 at home and have lost at McMahon Stadium since 2015. The team typically plays some its best football in August, going 8-2 ATS over the past three years and 47-27 against the number dating back to 1996.
The Stampeders are averaging more than 40 points in front of the home fans and surrendering just 16.7, so the Stampeders have a definitive home field advantage. Overall, Calgary is leading the league in scoring, so something will have to give against Toronto’s defense, which has been better than several previous editions of the Argonauts.
Bo Levi Mitchell struggled for Calgary last week, having his second-lowest completion percentage and is struggling a little bit with a sore arm, but will get the start tonight.
My numbers made this one 43-15 in favor of the Stampeders and I’ll have to agree and lay the points, although I’ve never been a big fan of laying so many points regardless of the league involved. Calgary can’t afford to take it easy, as Edmonton and Winnipeg are both 7-2, so a victory will give them a half-game lead in the West standings. Toronto has a one-game lead in the East and that division will be settled when those teams meet each other, so the game isn’t quite as important for the Argonauts.