Big 12 Conference Betting Preview
By Steve Merril
Covers.com
Big Ten East
Indiana Hoosiers (2015: 6-7 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +12000
Season win total: 6
Why bet the Hoosiers: Indiana played in their first bowl game in eight years last season, so they come into this year with some momentum. Head coach Kevin Wilson is a terrific offensive mind, and his system simply racks up points and yards in bunches. The Hoosiers return 7 starters on defense, and that unit might be much improved under new coordinator Tom Allen.
Why not bet the Hoosiers: They won more than 5 games for the first time since 2007, and they did so because of their potent offense that averaged 36.5 points on 504 yards per game. However, Indiana lost QB Nate Sudfeld and running back Jordan Howard to the NFL. The Hoosier’s defense needs major improvement; they’ve allowed 36.4 points per game since Wilson took over.
Season win total pick: Under 6
Maryland Terrapins (2015: 3-9 SU, 7-5 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +22500
Season win total: 6
Why bet the Terrapins: Maryland cleaned house on the coaching staff, and in steps new head coach DJ Durkin who cut his teeth under Urban Meyer and Jim Harbaugh. The young Durkin (38 years old) has plenty of coaching experience to work with, so the Terrapins are in good hands. Maryland returns 7 starters on offense, including two senior quarterbacks. The early schedule is quite easy, so expect Maryland to get off to a fast start.
Why not bet the Terrapins: The Terrapins still lack much talent, and their defense has regressed in three consecutive years. And even though the coaching change was a positive, it’s still going to take time for Durkin to implement his schemes on both sides of the ball. Maryland’s late season schedule is brutal, so the season may tailspin down once the calendar turns to November.
Season win total pick: Under 6
Michigan Wolverines (2015: 10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +240
Season win total: 9.5
Why bet the Wolverines: Michigan is ultra talented and experienced. Jim Harbaugh is one of the best coaches in college football. Harbaugh increased Michigan’s scoring average 10.5 points per game in his first season; the Wolverines went from averaging 20.9 points per game in 2014 to 31.4 points per game in 2015. Michigan will have one of the best defenses in the country even with new coordinator Don Brown calling the shots.
Why not bet the Wolverines: The secret is out on Michigan and Harbaugh. There will likely be very little value on the Wolverines this season. Michigan will play their first five games at home, and in fact six of their first seven games will be at home. The problem is all six of those opponents should be easy wins which means their toughest games will all be on the road, including a trip to Ohio State in their season finale.
Season win total pick: Over 9.5
Michigan State Spartans (2015: 12-2 SU, 5-9 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +850
Season win total: 8
Why bet the Spartans: Head coach Mark Dantonio is one of the most underrated coaches in the country. Dantonio has orchestrated outstanding defenses, and that shouldn’t change this season. The Spartans have held their opponents to just 21.7 points per game or less in five straight seasons. Michigan State will rely on their defense to win games once again in 2016, and since that formula has worked well for the Spartans in recent years, there’s no reason it won’t be effective this season.
Why not bet the Spartans: Michigan State only returns 10 starters from last year’s 12-2 team that played in the College Football Playoff. The Spartans are much more inexperienced than they’ve been in the past, so that may cause them to regress some this season. Michigan State’s offense must replace QB Connor Cook who is now in the NFL. The quarterback position is the biggest question mark for the Spartans heading into the 2016 season.
Season win total pick: Over 8
Ohio State Buckeyes (2015: 12-1 SU, 6-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +170
Season win total: 9.5
Why bet the Buckeyes: Ohio State is 31-1 in conference play in four years under Urban Meyer, so the conference certainly goes thru the Buckeyes. Ohio State will host Michigan after thumping the Wolverines 42-13 in Ann Arbor last season, so it’s easy to see why the Buckeyes are the clear-cut favorites to win the Big Ten.
Why not bet the Buckeyes: Head coach Urban Meyer was quoted that last year’s Ohio State team would be his best. They came up short in a loss to Michigan State, and the Buckeyes now have to replace 16 outgoing starters. While it’s true they simply reload, the inexperience will likely get them at some point this season. Ohio State will be overpriced in just about every game, so be careful when backing the Buckeyes in 2016.
Season win total pick: Over 9.5
Penn State Nittany Lions (2015: 7-6 SU, 4-9 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +2300
Season win total: 7
Why bet the Nittany Lions: Penn State will play their third season under head coach James Franklin, and with 14 starters returning, expect a breakout season in State College. Running back Saquon Barkley leads an offense that returns nine starters for new offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead. His play-calling should spark an offense that has averaged less than 24 points per game in Franklin’s first two seasons.
Why not bet the Nittany Lions: The biggest concern coming into 2016 for Penn State is their inexperienced defense. The Nittany Lions only return 5 starters on that side of the ball, and they lost coordinator Bob Shoop to Auburn. Defense has been Penn State’s team strength over the last few seasons, but their are signs that indicate the stop unit will regress some in 2016.
Season win total pick: Over 7
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2015: 4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +50000
Season win total: 6
Why bet the Scarlet Knights: Rutgers was a complete and utter mess last season. The team had no direction from their head coach who was suspended for three games, and they were simply decimated by injuries. Chris Ash is the new head coach, and he has a lot of work to do. But the good news is Rutgers returns 16 starters, and off a disappointing 4-8 season in 2015, there’s plenty of motivation for the Scarlet Knights.
Why not bet the Scarlet Knights: The program was in free fall last season, so it’s not like Rutgers will be able to just flip a switch in 2016. Their road schedule is absolutely brutal with games at Washington, at Ohio State, and at Michigan State. The Scarlet Knights will play a brutal 3-game set against Iowa, the aforementioned Buckeyes, and Michigan. There’s optimism for Rutgers, but taking a wait and see approach may be the best thing to do early on.
Season win total pick: Over 6
Big Ten West
Illinois Fighting Illini (2015: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +15000
Season win total: 6
Why bet the Fighting Illini: Illinois suffered thru another losing season after going 5-7 in 2015. The Illini haven’t had a winning season since 2011, so there’s nowhere to go but up for new head coach Lovie Smith. Expectations are extremely low in Champaign, so the Illini may be able to surprise some teams this year. Illinois only returns 11 starters, but with a former NFL coach, the team may take to Smith sooner than expected.
Why not bet the Fighting Illini: The program has been in steady decline over the last decade, and the talent has dropped off significantly. Losing teams are hard to back, especially when they are just 17-32 over the last four seasons. Lovie Smith has been in the NFL for the past 20 years, having last coached a college team in 1995. The game has dramatically changed over that time, so the hiring of Smith is somewhat puzzling. The schedule is also very difficult, so expect another losing season for Illinois in 2016.
Season win total pick: Under 6
Iowa Hawkeyes (2015: 12-2 SU, 8-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +850
Season win total: 8.5
Why bet the Hawkeyes: Iowa was one of the surprises in the Big 10 last season after going 12-2 overall, and a perfect 8-0 in the conference. Quarterback C.J. Beathard returns after throwing for over 2,800 yards with 17 touchdown passes in 2015. The Hawkeyes are terrific at controlling the ball with their rushing attack, and then turning to their stout defense to close games out late. Iowa’s defense will once again be one of the best in the entire conference.
Why not bet the Hawkeyes: Normally when a team comes out of nowhere to win as many games as Iowa did last year, they often regress the following season. That’s the concern with the Hawkeyes in 2016. Iowa’s defense will have the spotlight on them, and it’s probably a stretch to think the Hawkeyes’ offense can match last year’s numbers when they averaged 30.9 points per game on just 386 yards per game.
Season win total pick: Over 8.5
Minnesota Golden Gophers (2015: 6-7 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +6500
Season win total: 6.5
Why bet the Golden Gophers: Minnesota had back-to-back 8-5 seasons prior to going just 6-7 in 2015. But the Golden Gophers lost their coach midway thru the year, and their 5-2 start to the season went up in smoke. With 13 returning starters, 2016 should be a bounce back season for Minnesota. The Golden Gophers play a favorable schedule this season as they avoid the Big Three: Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State.
Why not bet the Golden Gophers: The Golden Gophers regressed on both sides of the ball last season, so they’ll need to bounce back strong if they want to have a winning record. Minnesota also needs significant improvement on both lines as they only ran for 144 yards per game while giving up 166 yards per game to their opponents.
Season win total pick: Over 6.5
Nebraska Cornhuskers (2015: 6-7 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +1000
Season win total: 8.5
Why bet the Cornhuskers: Nebraska will be in their second season under head coach Mike Riley, and significant improvement is quite possible. The Cornhuskers lost five games last season with just seconds left to play; six of their seven losses came by single digits. Nebraska returns 13 starters, including seven on an offense that averaged 32.8 points per game.
Why not bet the Cornhuskers: Even though Nebraska returns quarterback Tommy Armstrong, that may not be a good thing. Armstrong is mistake prone, especially late in ball games. The Cornhuskers’ defense was a similar story to Armstrong; that unit gave up 400 yards per game. Nebraska also plays a very tough schedule late in the season with three of their final five games coming on the road.
Season win total pick: Over 8.5
Northwestern Wildcats (2015: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +4200
Season win total: 7
Why bet the Wildcats: Northwestern gets little respect in the markets, but the Wildcats have proven to be a scrappy team under head coach Pat Fitzgerald. They were underdogs in six games last season, and they finished with a 10-3 SU record. Nothing is likely to change in 2016, so there will be plenty of opportunities to back Northwestern as underdogs.
Why not bet the Wildcats: Northwestern was a phony 10-win team in 2015. The Wildcats only averaged 19.5 points on just 327 yards of total offense. Northwestern was out-gained by 39.3 in conference play last season despite going 6-2 in those games. There’s plenty of reasons to expect major regression from Northwestern in 2016.
Season win total pick: Under 7
Purdue Boilermakers (2015: 2-10 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +20000
Season win total: 6
Why bet the Boilermakers: Expectations are extremely low for Purdue coming into 2016. The Boilermakers went just 2-10 last season, and they are just 6-30 over the last three seasons. Purdue will likely be big underdogs in just about every one of their games this season. With expectations so low, playing the Boilermakers will take courage, but the abundance of points will be plentiful.
Why not bet the Boilermakers: As alluded to above, Purdue will be a terrible team. The Boilermakers will be in their fourth year under head coach Darrell Hazell, and they do return 16 starters. But that still won’t be enough as the talent on hand is just not that good. Purdue is simply a bad team, so be careful when backing the Boilermakers in 2016.
Season win total pick: Under 6
Wisconsin Badgers (2015: 10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +1600
Season win total: 7
Why bet the Badgers: Wisconsin will be in their second year under head coach Paul Chryst. The Badgers went 10-3 last season because of their defense. The stop unit allowed just 13.7 points on 269 yards per game. Wisconsin has a history of winning games by controlling the ball with their running game and their stout defense; that always makes them dangerous as an underdog.
Why not bet the Badgers: The Badgers’ offense regressed by 7.8 points per game and by 90 yards per game last season. They did so despite playing an extremely easy schedule. They won’t have that luxury this season with away games against LSU, Michigan State, Michigan, and Iowa. Their strong defense also lost coordinator Dave Aranda to LSU. Overall, with just 12 returning starters, Wisconsin will fall in 2016.
Season win total pick: Over 7