Black Magic Sports
NCAA Basketball
5 Unit Black Magic MWC Game of the Year on UNLV -1.5
UNLV is one of the best home teams in the nation. The Rebels are 9-2 at home this year and face a BYU team that has really struggled on the road. All 4 of BYU's losses have come away from home. BYU has lost 3 straight road games to this point. One of UNLV's home losses came against a very tough Arizona Wildcats team by just 3 points. UNLV will have no problem dismantling a much lesser BYU at home tonight. UNLV is 9-1 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite since 1997. The Rebels bounce back in a big way tonight with this 90% winning ratio on their side. Cash in with UNLV as the favorite.
3 Unit Sharp Play on Boston College -2
Boston College will put the Miami Hurricanes in their place tonight. Miami has had a very weak schedule to this point and it's only going to hurt them now that they have reached ACC play. Boston College won their first SEC test on Saturday with a 39-point crushing of Wake Forest. Back-to-back home wins to start ACC play for the Golden Eagles can be expected tonight. Boston College is 14-5 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. Boston College is 15-4 ATS vs. teams who are called for 3+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last 3 seasons. The Golden Eagles will win the free throw battle, thus winning this home game over Miami. Cash in with Boston College as the favorite.
NBA
4 Unit NBA Shocker of the Week on New York Knicks +3
The Washington Wizards are in for a serious letdown tonight. Washington just beat the Boston Celtics on Saturday and then again last night to pull off two of the biggest upsets of the season. Now the public is all over Washington tonight and we will go the opposite way of these morons. The Knicks are coming off a 24-point home win over the Detroit Pistons on Sunday. We will play on the home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less. This is a 30-6 System with an 83% winning ratio over the last 5 seasons. Bet the Knicks as the underdog in a shocker.
Wolkosky Milan
10* ATLANTA -1½
10* PHO/LAC UNDER 208
10* TOR/DET OVER 182
atslocks
10 unit under 192 Was/NYK
8 unit under 207.5 Den/Atl
5 unit under 183 Hou/Philly
5 unit Missouri State -8.5 vs Indiana State
John Ryan
Carolina, Vancouver, Edmonton
Bradon Lovell
NCAA Hoops
Miami
Creighton
Penn
Banker
3* San Jose Sharks
Prophet
4 * Tampa Bay Lightning
Bobby Bo
3* La Salle -4
3* Wake Forest +7
3* Atlanta Hawks -2.5
1* Free Play N. Iowa -1
Drew Gordon
1. 200,000* Miami-Florida
2. 50,000* Cavaliers
3. 50,000* Wisconsin
1. Miami-Florida- Several reasons to like the Hurricanes in this spot, but let's start with their overall play, which has been excellent thus far this season, going 14-1 SU and 8-0 ATS... You can't argue with those numbers. They're doing it with a more "team-first" attitude this season, as coach Haith has his kids, including the one time ball-hog turned team-leader Jack McClinton, buying into his system.
Besides their overall play, the 'Canes have the all-important "double-revenge" angle going for them in this one. The Eagles beat a much different Miami team twice last season, and don't think for second that they've forgotten about it. Now its payback time, as the Eagles are vulnerable, as witnessed by their 57-51 home loss to Robert Morris a week ago Monday. Sure, they destroyed Wake Forest in their last home game, but that was to be expected coming off the ugly upset loss to Robert Morris... Don't expect the same kind of energy this time around.
No question Miami's bread is buttered by its defense, which allows 60 ppg on a lockdown 38% shooting this season. Anchored by bruiser Anthony King down-low, this 'Canes defense is athletic enough to limit a solid Eagles' frontcourt. While in the backcourt, McClinton and Dews make up a blanced duo, that at the very least can contain Tyrese Rice. Rice dominated his match up against Wake Forest, but don't expect him to shoot 9 for 15 and score 32 points against this Miami defense.
Finally, as mentioned above the 'Canes have been nothing but a money-machine this season, going 8-0 ATS! They proved in their outright upset at Mississippi State that they can win on the road. However, because the Eagles crushed Wake Forest a couple days ago, there's the misperception that these two teams are about equal, but that's simply not the case. Miami is a much better team, with a much better defense, playing for payback against a Boston College team that just lost to Robert Morris at home last week!
Take Miami-Florida plus the points over Boston College as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Cavaliers- Two teams going in separate directions, as the Cavs have won 7 of their last 9 games, while the Grizzlies are tailspinning, losers of 10 of their last 12 games overall. More of the same tonight, as the Griz have no answer for Lebron in this one.
Problem with Memphis starts and ends with defense, as they're allowing a mind-boggling 108 ppg on 48% shooting over their last 5 games! Its not like Cleveland is a strong offensive team, but when Memphis gives ZERO effort on the defensive end, even the Cavs look good. Don't believe me? Pop in the tape of their last meeting in Memphis, when the Cavs won 118-96 as 2'-point favorites!
Unlike the Grizzlies, Cleveland actually cares about defense, surrendering just 91 ppg over their last 5 games. That's a problem for the Memphis backcourt, which features an inexperienced PG in Conley Jr. and a turnover-machine in Mike Miller (leads team with 105 turnovers). Hughes, Gibson, and of course Lebron are all solid defenders and quick with their hands, making for a tough match up tonight.
Finally, let's look at the numbers as the favorite in this series is 8-3 ATS over their last 11 meetings. While this is their first meeting this season, its clear Memphis is one of the worst teams in the NBA and playing like it. Expect the Cavs, and especially Lebron, to take advantage of a paper mache Grizzlies defense in a solid road win and cover tonight.
Take the Cavaliers over the Grizzlies in this NBA match up.
3. Wisconsin- Oddsmakers are clearly underestimating the Badgers in this spot, as despite being on the road, its hard to ignore the edge in overall talent Wisconsin has in this match up, especially in the frontcourt.
Its important to note that the Lions leading rebounder is G Geary Claxton, which should immediately tell you something about Penn State's frontline. He also happens to lead them in blocked shots (12), so don't expect much resistance from the Lions bigmen either. Both Butch and Landry should have a field day in this match up, as Wisconsin is at its most dangerous when they can work inside/out, opening up the defense for G Trevon Hughes.
While defensively Penn State has some convincing stats at home, clearly the better defense lies with Wisconsin, which is allowing opponents just 54 ppg on 38% shooting, against better competition no less. While you expect Claxton to score, the rest of the Lions backcourt isn't nearly as talented and will struggle against the superior perimter defense of the Badgers.
Bottom line, while Penn State is coming off its first home loss of the season, don't put too much stock in a bounce back effort against this Wisconsin team tonight. This is clearly their toughest home contest to date, and with the match up issues mentioned above, look for the Lions to get handed their second home loss of the season in this one. Butch and Landry open up it up for Hughes, while the Wisky defense takes care of the rest!
Take Wisconsin comfortably over Penn State in this Big Ten match up.
Yankee Capper Comp
2 Units - Ohio State +8 ½
Cal Spts
4* Cleveland Cavs
4* Mizz St
3* New Mex
The real animal comp play
Pick title: 2* Evansville +6
Southern Illinois is 7-9. That’s big news in the Missouri Valley Conference for a team that was 29-7 a year ago. I’m not buying them as a 6-point road chalk in a game where the total has fallen from 123 to 120 and figures to be low scoring. The Salukis are 0-6 ATS on the road this year and Evansville only allows 57.5 points a game at home. But here’s the problem for the Purple Aces. Their last four wins (out of five this year) were against Norfolk State, Hanover, Austin Peay, and Princeton. But Evansville has won outright each of the past two years against Southern Illinois in this gymnasium. I’ll take the +6 points and watch Evansville go to 13-2 ATS the last three years when facing an opponent with a losing record.
AAA
NCAAB: Brigham Young Cougars at UNLV Runnin' Rebels - UNLV -1.5 -110
Note: I am going to be brief with this play. These two Schools are very similar in one respect and that is that they both play much better than average defense. In fact both are ranked within the Top 40 of all 341 NCAA Teams in D efficiency this year. While the Cougars set a much higher pace than their counterparts and there have a "More Points Per Game" Team, they are not any better at scoring per possession that the home team with offensive efficiency being just about equal. What the Rebels have that the visitors do not, is a team that works together to accomplish their goal and their number of assists prove that, as they have 3 of the top 12 assists leader in this conference. At just over 15 assists per game, they easily lead all of the teams in the WAC and we will see a lot of ball movement tonight. The Rebels ended a 5 game win streak last game at Air Force shooting just 17 of 47 from the court. UNLV guard Curtis Terry summed it up best. "We're very disappointed. We didn't come out and have a lot of energy, enthusiasm and excitement about this game. We played lackadaisical somewhat. Our focus and intensity just wasn't there." We can expect that to change as UNLV is back at home where they have been dominent, losing only to Arizona and Louisville, and where they turn on the D to a higher level, limited all comers to just 37% shooting, and allowing just 60 points per game. They do matchup well with BYU in their style of play and one reason why they are 6-2 ATS verses this team here in Las Vegas. The Home team has won the last 5 times they have played and with BYU playing just their 5th road affair, I am not sure if they are ready for what they will face tonight. This team does have experience with their starting 5, but they do not have that with players they bring in, including 2 freshman guards. They are going to have to work the bench tonight with what UNLV will bring to the table. Those substitution minutes are not going to be a good situation for the Cougars. With these teams being very similar in talent and D, I am playing the one at home, following a loss, and with better bench strength.
OC DOOLEY
"1 UNIT" Sixers at Rockets OVER 183
Balfe
NBA Basketball
Wizard -3 over Knicks
College Basketball
Michigan State -8 over Ohio State
Selective Sports
Over 197 Cleveland/Memphis 10 units
INDAIAN COWBOY
Mississippi State -8.5 (POD)
Promos: Winning 8 of 9 days (coming off the Golden week of 7 winning days in a row). Winning 11 of 14 days in January and 13 of 17 days. 10-5 Last Week. Only Handicapper in the nation to have over a 100 plays (140 total plays ((85-55)) and still remain 60% in Basketball 2007 - college and pro. 14 of 20 POD Winners. Kentucky won outright at home against Vanderbilt so they are going to go on the road and dominate today right? I don't believe so. Listen, I have followed Kentucky from the beginning of the year, and although this team got the much needed win at home against Vandy, this team is simply not as talented as the rest of the SEC. Kentucky continues to struggle on the road as they have only played 2 road games this year - on the road at Indiana a top 20 school and lost by 19 points and on the road at Houston a top 100 school and losing by 14 points - a game in which was my POD. Today is no different as this school now faces a Bulldog team that is top 80 in the power rankings and a team that has already defeated better teams such as Missouri (a top 75 team) and UGA (a top 125 team) at home by double-digits. Heck, this team held LSU to 39 points on the on the road and won by 20+ and faces a Kentucky team that they do have bad blood against as they won in overtime last year in Lexington and this year they have even a better team. Sure, Kentucky can sneak in for the cover here, but this team has lost both of its road games by roughly 20 points, I believe they are in for a let down here and Mississippi State will not hesitate to run up the score on a team that struggles to score away from home. Much like Hawaii yesterday, I think the public is in for a bit of a burial with the appealing underdog here as the wildcats are 0-5 ATS on the road, 0-7 ATS following a straight up win which shows their inconsistency and the Bulldogs have covered their last 4 ballgames.
Memphis +2
As wild as this play sounds, I like the Grizzlies in this spot here. Look, this team gave their heart out on the road and they came up short including that 1 point loss to the Lakers and I feel that will come out fired up today at home to face a Cavs team that they measure up well against. The Cavs have won 7 of 9 games - this is true, but this team also struggles on the road - remember, they did lose on the road to New York, New Jersey and Charlotte. Cleveland ha an odd way of not showing up for certain road games and I believe this game will be one such game as they get caught in a bad spot here. Memphis has lost 4 straight and if you are wondering why a 10 win team is dogged by just a bucket here, understand that Memphis is due for a big win at home - remember, this team did take down the Spurs at home (albeit without Paker) but this team is capable of wins as 6 of their 10 wins do come at home. The line is relatively short for good reason here are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 ballgames as a favorite, the Grizzlies will likely get rewarded for their hard play with a win at home here and the Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 ballgames following a straight up loss.
Miami of Florida +2
I tell people that college basketball is not for the faint at heart and this pick certainly fits that bill similar to San Jose State on the road yesterday. Boston college by just a bucket at home - easy right! wrong. Miami of Florida is a top 25 power ranking team according to my spreadsheets and frankly one of the best teams in the country that no one speaks of. Tell me which team in the country has done the following: gone on the road to beat a top 75 Mississippi State team, has just 1 loss this year coming out of the ACC and 13 wins, defeated Marist by 25 who is a sound team, beat St. Johns by nearly 20 at home and recently beat Georgia Tech at home by double-digits. You can't name many - and I think Boston College will chalk up their fifth home loss today. I like this play in part because it is a let down for this team after a big win over Wake Forrest at home - similar to Kentucky's let down today against Mississippi State. Wheneve Boston College faces a top 50 team, they do not fare well. After all, BC lost to Providence and Umass both top 50 teams at home and of course they got easily handled by Kansas - as the only game they won earlier this year against a top 50 team was Rhode Island -a game they never should have won and a game they were down big at half time. If Miami of Florida can beat one of the elite teams in the SEC on the road, I believe they can beat a mediocre team in ACC Basketball as I have this game at 64% chance of a straight up win for Miami of Florida according ot my math models and I will take my chances. The public likely gets buried again here as the Hurricanes are 7-0 ATS when facing a team with a winning percentage of over 60% and 6-0 ATS against a team with a winning home record. This is not your daddy's Miami Hurricanes basketball team as the Basketball in Miami is considerably better than the football these days.
Dr Bob
Tuesday Free Best Bet
**CLEMSON (-11 ½) over NC State
NC State is 3-9 ATS this season and the Wolfpack are still overrated. In fact, NC State has gotten even worse with starting pointguard Farnold Degand out for the season (he’s missed the last 5 games) and Clemson is better now than their season rating with James Mays healthy again (he missed 5 games). My ratings favor Clemson by 16 ½ points and the Tigers apply to a solid 195-91-7 ATS situation tonight. Only a look ahead to the Duke game this weekend would keep the Tigers from winning big in this game and that possibility will keep me from making this a 3-Star Best Bet. I’ll take Clemson in a 2-Star Best Bet at -12 points or less.
Tuesday Free Opinions/Possible Best Bets
Golden State (-7 ½) over MINNESOTA
Minnesota is just 2-11 ATS as a home dog of 10 points or less this season and the Timberwolves have lost 12 of their 17 home games by 8 points or more. Golden State, meanwhile, is 5-2 ATS as a road favorite of 2 points or more and they’re 4-0 ATS visiting one of the bottom teams in the league – beating Minnesota by 13 points, Seattle by 13 points, New York by 26 points, and Memphis by 8 points. My ratings favor the Warriors by 9 ½ points in this game and I’ll lean with Golden State at -8 or less.
Cincinnati (+12) over NOTRE DAME
Cincinnati started the season 0-5 ATS, but the Bearcats are 7-1-1 ATS with pointguard Jamuel Warren in the starting lineup (Warren missed the first part of the season). Notre Dame is coming off a blowout loss at Marquette, but the Irish are only 8-28-2 ATS under coach Mike Brey as a favorite of 4 points or more after a loss, including 0-2 ATS this season. My ratings favor Notre Dame by just 11 points and I’ll lean with Cincinnati at +12 points or more.
BAYLOR (-6 ½) over Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State is 0-10 straight up and 1-9 ATS as a visiting team under coach Sean Sutton while Baylor is 51-33-3 ATS in all games under coach Scott Drew, including 21-10-2 ATS in conference home games (4-1 ATS as a favorite). Baylor is still not getting the respect that they deserve, as my ratings favor Baylor by 8 points using a standard home court advantage. I’d get Baylor by 9 ½ points after adjusting for Oklahoma’s poor history on the road, which actually goes back to the days when Sutton’s father was coaching the team before he took over last year. I’ll consider Baylor an opinion at -6 ½ or -7 points and I’d take Baylor in a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less. Free Best Bet and 3 opinions available after 3 pm Pacific
AAA
Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves - Over 212 -110 | Unit Value: 2
Note: Super brief as I am whooped. The Wolves are coming off two games with 2 very good defensive teams. Howver, they did shoot well in those games and their shooting skills have improved very much in recent play. They will get their chance to strut their stuff tonight with the Warriors who have just one thing on their mind. SCORE. The first two contests ended at 206 and 209 but that was when the Wolves were seriously having trouble trying to put the ball in the net. They are not now and with the pace we will see tonight, 220+ is a great possibility.
Brigham Young Cougars at UNLV Runnin' Rebels - UNLV -1.5 -110 | Unit Value: 2
Note: I am going to be brief with this play. These two Schools are very similar in one respect and that is that they both play much better than average defense. In fact both are ranked within the Top 40 of all 341 NCAA Teams in D efficiency this year. While the Cougars set a much higher pace than their counterparts and there have a "More Points Per Game" Team, they are not any better at scoring per possession that the home team with offensive efficiency being just about equal. What the Rebels have that the visitors do not, is a team that works together to accomplish their goal and their number of assists prove that, as they have 3 of the top 12 assists leader in this conference. At just over 15 assists per game, they easily lead all of the teams in the WAC and we will see a lot of ball movement tonight. The Rebels ended a 5 game win streak last game at Air Force shooting just 17 of 47 from the court. UNLV guard Curtis Terry summed it up best. "We're very disappointed. We didn't come out and have a lot of energy, enthusiasm and excitement about this game. We played lackadaisical somewhat. Our focus and intensity just wasn't there." We can expect that to change as UNLV is back at home where they have been dominent, losing only to Arizona and Louisville, and where they turn on the D to a higher level, limited all comers to just 37% shooting, and allowing just 60 points per game. They do matchup well with BYU in their style of play and one reason why they are 6-2 ATS verses this team here in Las Vegas. The Home team has won the last 5 times they have played and with BYU playing just their 5th road affair, I am not sure if they are ready for what they will face tonight. This team does have experience with their starting 5, but they do not have that with players they bring in, including 2 freshman guards. They are going to have to work the bench tonight with what UNLV will bring to the table. Those substitution minutes are not going to be a good situation for the Cougars. With these teams being very similar in talent and D, I am playing the one at home, following a loss, and with better bench strength.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Maryland Terraphins - Over 139 (Heavy Hitter)Unit Value: 3
Note: Make no mistake about it. We are going to see some action in this contest and we have seen just that, the last 12 times these schools have met on the court. The Fact is, in those games, the lowest point total we have seen was 147 2 years ago, and the rest have pretty topped the 150 mark and more. These teams are doing the same thing this year as in the past, and that is setting a very high amount of activity toward the basket, ranked #41 and #27 in the country with tempo. They also both have a better than average offensive efficiency, with both in the top 1/3 in that department. That is actually a change for the Demon Deacons, as in recent years they have not been a very good shooting squad. While they are still in the marginal category in that phase of their game, they are seeing improvement lately that has allowed them to top the 70 mark the last 7 and 9 of 10 times on the court. Wake does play a good brand of D overall, but no so much when they travel, as they have allowed 48% shooting away from their homecourt and 75 points per game. That will probably get them in trouble tonight with a good shooting Terraphin squad and one that has had better than average success from beyond the arc. The lowest total set for a Wake Forest/Maryland game the last 12, was 152 back in 2004. This is a new low and in my best opinion offers great value, considering how these two teams run the court. The Total is as low as it is, due to the brand of D these two play, the probable absense of Maryland Guard Eric Hayes from tonight's lineup, and recent play by the home team here at home. But Wake brings a much better squad to town than Holy Cross, Savannah State, Delaware, American, and Ohio. They also bring a much higher tempo of action. Play up to 143.
North Carolina State Wolfpack at Clemson Tigers - Over 138.5 (Heavy Hitter) -110 | Unit Value: 3
Note: Most teams that demostrate a slower than usual pace have a better than average D and that is the case with the Wolfpack. But that has only been when they have played to the home crowd and not when they hit the road. The numbers for this ACC School have been like night and day depending on where they are dribbling and they have dribbled poorly on the road, allowing over 47% shooting and 81 points per contest. All true Road games have gone OVER the posted mark and the average final score has seen 148 points. North Carolina certainly had their way verses NC State and the liklihood of Clemson doing the same is very good. The Tigers have both outstanding offensive and defensive numbers and have been tough to beat here, even losing just by two to the Tarheels. They do push the ball, ranked #51 in the country and with great success as well, ranked #24 in offensive efficiency. The visitors are going to try to slow the action down, and they might have some success early in this game, but eventually they are going to have to play the Tiger way, as most teams coming here have to to do. That is one reason why OVER is 13-3 last 16 played by Clemson and that is why Clemson played games have averaged 151 this year. With the exception of games with very slow tempo Samford and Puudue, home games for this team have been a scoring bonanza as has the last two between these two here and the last 3 regardless of where they have played. A good combination of home and away trends, and Tigers being able to control the tempo gives us what I think is a very nice
Larry Ness
15* TV Game of the Week-CBB (12-3, 80% CBB run the last six days!)
My 15* play is on Michigan St at 7:00 ET. I went against Ohio St Saturday at Purdue and will come right back against them here. The Buckeyes lost at home to North Carolina on 11/28 and then at Butler on 12/1. OSU then ripped off EIGHT straight wins but only left the state of Ohio just once during that span, winning at Illinois (8-9 overall and 0-4 in the Big 10). The Buckeyes are still searching for an identity and they sure didn't find it at West Lafayette last Saturday, shooting 35.5 percent (just 6-of-24 on threes) against a talented but young Purdue team. Here, OSU gets Tom Izzo's 11th-ranked Spartans, still smarting after their 36-point effort last Saturday at Iowa. The team's top-two scorers, the 6-7 Morgan (17.6-7.1) and PG Neitzel (13.2-4.9 APG), a preseason All-American, shot a combined 9-of-26 in the loss. As a team, the Spartans shot 30.8 percent (3-of-12 on threes). However, expect MSU to bounce back in East Lansing, where the Spartans are 10-0 SU. Two 6-10 vets, Suton (9.3-8.6) and Naymick (2.9-3.6) will battle OSU's 7-0 freshman Koufus (14.4-7.1) inside, plus expect big bounce-back games from Morgan and Neitzel. MSU has the 6-8 Gary (6.2-4.8 adding depth up front plus three freshman contributing in the backcourt in Lucas (9.2-4.1 APG), Summers (7.1) and Allen (6.0). OSU seniors, guard Butler (14.8-4.1-6.2) and 6-8 forward Hunter (9.3-6.1) are solid players but OSU's freshman, guards Diebler (7.4) and Turner (7.0) plus Koufus, have been inconsistent vs top-notch opponents. MSU is a top-notch opponent coming off an embarrassing loss, which spells T-R-O-U-B-L-E for the Buckeyes.
TV Game of the Week
15* Michigan St.