DOC
4 Unit Play. #517 Take Vanderbilt +10 ½ over Tennessee
Way too many points to be laying in this Battle of Tennessee, as the Commodores head to Knoxville to take on the Volunteers. Both teams have just one setback on the season and Vandy has had plenty of time to recover from that emotional loss to Kentucky over the weekend in double overtime. Both teams have great guard play and thus expect many perimeter shots and Vandy can more then hold their own. This game will go right down to the wire and getting double digits makes this a strong play with the underdog.
4 Unit Play. #521 Take Butler -5 ½ over Cleveland State
The Bulldogs are in first place in the Horizon League and expect them to stay there for the remainder of the season, moving to 5-0 after putting away Cleveland State on Thursday. Butler owns a commanding 21-5 series lead over Cleveland State, including four consecutive wins over the Vikings. This game comes down to one player in A.J. Graves. Butler has him and the Rams have no answer for him. He is a big time player and will be able to play at the next level and when you are in the Horizon League, you will not face strong competition and be able to showcase all of your skills.
4 Unit Play. #526 Take Seton Hall -5 over South Florida
The Hall will record their first conference victory of the season tonight @ the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ. The Pirates have never lost to the Bulls and that will continue past Thursday and the more athletic talent lies with the home squad. Seton Hall is scoring over 80 points per game and that will allow them to cover this medium sized number. Brian Laing will dominated inside going for a double-double propelling the Hall to their first victory on the season. They have too much talent to be this bad and will not go 0-4 in Big East play.
Gold Key
Morehead State -3.5
Priority Sports Info
1-13 run 😮 - had Xavier last night
Wash St - 20
LOCKOFTHEDAY.COM
Thursday, January 17th, 2008
Today's Lock: College Basketball
Lock Of The Month ~ INDIANA -1.5
The Hoosiers are the best team in the BIG 10. Minnesota is overrated. The Gophers lost to UNLV by 18 points a couple weeks ago. Minnesota is 12-3, but they do not have one quality win! Indiana is led by freshman phenom Eric Gordon. DJ White is also a bigtime player. Indiana has already beaten Kentucky, Georgia Tech, Michigan, and Illinois this year. THEY WILL NOT LOSE TO MINNESOTA!! The Gophers nice record will get tarnished tonight! Indiana is a LOCK. This game is worth 2 Lock wins or 2 Lock losses. Bet the Hoosiers!
AAA
Marquette Golden Eagles at Louisville Cardinals - Louisville -3 -110 | Unit Value: 2
Note: Louisville Head Coach Rick Pitino has turned in one of his best coaching jobs this season. His team had been wrecked by injury, a broken knee cap suffered by senior leader center David Padgett, and a knee injury by senior guard Juan Palacios, limiting his options. Also on various occasions he had to suspend both center Derrick Caracter and forward Earl Clark for a game. Because of that the Cardinals got off to a horrible start and the Boo Birds began to be heard at his home arena. This is a very talented team but lacking both leadership on the court, and depth on the bench did not allow Mr P from doing what his teams are famous for. That is, of course High D Pressure for 40 minutes. Always playing pressure defense, Pitino has different pressures, one to slow an opponent, a second more hectic to try and cause turnovers. With a lack of depth, he could not turn up the pressure often until everyone returned. They are all back and the Cardinals are playing as good as anyone in this country right now, with wins at Kentucky, and Rutgers, and home to a very good West Virginia Team. We saw what they are capable of with the Mountaineers in town as the Cards held them to just 36% shooting and numerous turnovers. I am not a huge proponent of laying any points to a squad as good as Marquette, and they certainly have performed well outside of Milwaukee, but they are going to playing a highly motivated team tonight that has all their horses back in the stable. The Golden Eagles are going to try to force the isuue tonight and we are going to see some running at Freedom Hall. The key to the game will be whether Louisville's pressure can harass all-Big East Guard Dominque James, a lightning fast kid who is a flashy passer and possesses among the top turnover-assist ratios in the league. If they cannot stop him, they might very well be in for a long night. But the Cardinals have proven they can reek havoc with good guards as they did with West Va, and they do possess great turnover ratios themselves. Nobody is playing better D than Louisville right now, limiting all opponents to 34% shooting over the last 6 games, and being at home, performing as they are, should give us what we want. Petino said it best. "This is a home-court league. At one point all the Big East teams were playing good on the road. Now they seem to be playing great at home." Both of Marquette's losses have come outside Milwaukee. I am laying the 3 points.
Cal St Fullerton Titans at Pacific Tigers - Pacific -3.5 -110 | Unit Value: 2
Note: The Tigers have the 3rd best defense in this conference and that deserted them last game at Northridge. That is probably not going to happen tonight as they return home where they play D as good as anyone in this country. They also win here at a high clip and are off to a 5-1 mark this year already. While they will face another high octane offense in Fullerton, they will also be playing a team that does not play good D and is way near the bottom of the conference with that stat. The Titans have struggled against good defensive squads and last game Cal SB took it to them pretty hard. "Their defense was terrific," coach Bob Burton told the Orange County Register. "They got out on the right guys, and we didn't penetrate with the ball, didn't get it inside, didn't move it. I think what happened was that when the defense had us so stymied, that if you're not scoring, that affects how you're going to play defense and it hurt us." The Tigers have played their last 3 on the road, and their last 4 of 5. They are back at home for a nice stretch of activity and can ill afford to lose this one to a team that is already 3-1 in the conference. It is time to circle the wagons and they will be highly motivated to do so. Sometimes that is all it takes to win a game, but the fact is, Pacific at home is a much better proposition than Fullerton on the road. This line has drifted upward since posting this morning and still a play at the current level.
Arkansas State Indians at Denver Pioneers - Denver -2.5 -110 | Unit Value: 2
Note: Denver is becoming a pain in the neck for Sun Belt teams because of its meticulous Princeton offense and UALR found that out a few days ago. "I would hate to face that offense every day. It's like going to have a root canal." -- New Orleans coach Joe Pasternack. Denver coach Joe Scott, and formally the same at the Ivy League School has done a good job with a team that is limited in talent, but is playing his style of play almost to perfection. That talent level just went down again and this team with 7 true freshmen on a 13 man roster just lost Small Forward David Kummer as he went down with an ankle injury last game and his 11 Points and 4.7 Rebounds will be missed by this team that regularly plays only 7 to 8 players per game. He is their leading scorer and perhaps why this line opened at 3 and has dropped a bit. But that is not what this team is all about, and the fact is, they work the ball very well and they will find the open shot tonight. They have done that very well here at home with a 5-1 mark and probably because they are nailing all shots at over 51%. Arkansas State has not traveled well this season and they never have. They have won but 1 of 7 away from Jonesboro and that was their last game as they beat a very poor UL Monroe team. They have had serious problems stopping anyone, allowing an amzing 53% shooting away from home and 81 points per game. They do lack depth at all positions and that is key here in the High Air of Denver Colorado. They have lost 6 straight here in Colorado and my best belief is that they will lose again. The Pioneers won just 3 Sunbelt games all last year, they already have 3 wins this year. Coach Scott is on my Hit List for people to watch in this conference and he will show his magic tonight with better shot selection, better D, and a hefty turnover margin this year, especially in front of the home crowd.
Drew Gordon
1. 200,000* Arizona State
2. 50,000* Louisville
3. 50,000* Nuggets
1. Arizona State- Okay so the Sun Devils lose badly in an early season road game at Nebraska, and all of sudden everyone is jumping off their bandwagon tonight in Berkeley... You'd think 9 straight wins, including a nice OT win over Arizona last week would tell you something about how far this team has progessed! Look for the Sun Devile to to prove doubters wrong in this spot, and here's why:
First, if recent history is any barometer, then this game should be a close one. Recall last year's black-and-blue 42-41 battle, in which the Sun Devils upset the Bears in Berkeley. In the meeting beforehand, they went into overtime, with Cal pulling out the 66-62 win. Not to mention the fact the Sun Devils have had 8 days to gameplan for this match up, while Cal has Arizona on deck two days from now!
Second, if you thought last year's version of Arizona State played hard-nosed defense, this year's version in downright nasty, allowing just 57 ppg on 40% over their last 5 games (and that includes wins against Arizona and Oregon). Their youngish guard-heavy rotation is quick on their feet and with their hands, led by James Hardin's 27 steals (2 others with 19 steals).
Also, while many are calling for Ryan Anderson and DeVon Hardin to dominate this match up, its really not that simple. Just because the Sun Devils are smaller, doesn't mean they can't compete... Did guard-heavy Oregon have trouble with this Cal team? No, because despite the fact Anderson scored 22 points in that game, the rest of his team (besides G Christopher) is average at best.
Finally, let's look over some trends, as the Sun Devils have been excellent against the PAC-10, going 7-1-1 ATS over their last 9 in conference. Not only that, but the road team in this series is an outstanding 13-3 ATS over their last 16 meetings. Numbers like those are hard to ignore, but I'll leave you with one last stat to digest... Cal is allowing 72 ppg over their last 5 games, and if you think defense like that is going to extend the margin enough to cover, then you don't know college basketball!
Take Arizona State plus the points over California as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Louisville- This is a tough spot for Marquette, as they've shown vulnerability on the road this season with a loss at West Virginia, and are just 2-7 ATS over their last 9 road games. Coming into Pitino's house with his team healthy and starting to surge does not bode well for the Golden Eagles tonight.
Make no mistake, the Cardinals win at Kentucky was their "turnaround game," a game that they can hang their hats on and build off of for the rest of the season. They've won and covered 3 straight, including beating the very same West Virgnia team that beat Marquette 63-54 at Freedom Hall a week ago. Speaking of Freedom Hall, don't forget the Golden Eagles outright win there last season... Now its payback time!
Biggest reason why they win and cover tonight at home is defense, plain and simple. Louisville is allowing just 54 ppg on an outstanding 34% shooting over their last 5 games! When you include the fact that those numbers came against offenses like Kentucky and West Virginia, that stat is even more impressive. The Cardinals frontcourt is head and shoulders better than Marquette on both ends of the court, while the backcourt of Smith, McGee, and Sosa is good enough to at least limit Marquette's guard duo of James and McNeal.
Finally, the numbers don't lie, as Louisville is 12-2-2 ATS against the Big East over their last 16 regular season match ups. More of the same tonight, as the Cardinals are starting to peak, and playing them at home without the size to counter their deep frontcourt is a recipe for disaster, plain and simple.
Take Louisville over Marquette in this Big East showdown.
3. Nuggets- While its easy to underestimate Denver in this spot, thanks to the fact they've lost 3 of their last 4 games, all 3 of those losses were on the road, where Denver has been anything but good. Back at home is a different story, as the Nuggets protect their house with zeal, going 15-5 SU & 11-9 ATS there, including wins and covers over Orlando and San Antonio the last 2 weeks.
Utah suffers from the same problem as Denver, in that, they're both excellent home teams, but terrible road teams. You could easily make the argument that the Jazz's disparity of home vs. road play is even greater, going 16-3 SU in Salt Lake, but just 6-14 SU on the highway. The problem is defense, as they leave their intensity back in Utah, allowing 105 ppg on a ridiculous 48% shooting when they travel!
It doesn't take a brain surgeon to figure out that allowing opponents to shoot 48% on the road is a big reason why the Jazz are 6-14 SUATS on the road. Facing a bad offense, they may be able to get away with it, but Denver is one of the better offenses in the NBA, especially at home, where they average upwards of 108 ppg on the year.
While its true the Nuggets have some injuries to consider, like Martin and Najera, as long as Camby is playing, I like their chances. He not only dominates the glass, but has the ability to challenge smallish PF Boozer in the paint. Boozer can be a beast, but at just 6'9, will have issues scoring on the pogo-stick like Camby.
Bottom line, with both teams neck and neck in the standings, this game is an important statement for either team. Unfortunately for the Jazz, their defense seemingly always finds a way to let them down on the road, and that'll be true once again tonight. Nuggets protect their house and grab the cash in this one.
Take the Nuggets over the Jazz in this NBA match up.
PPP / GAVAZI
5* Pacific,
3* Ore
3* Ore St.
Nick Parsons
Sport: NHL Hockey
Game: Montreal Canadians @ Atlanta Thrashers
Pick: 1 unit (Free Play) MONEYLINE: Atlanta Thrashers -119
The Thrashers will look to beat the Canadiens three times in a season for the first time when the teams meet tonight at Philips Arena. Coming off a shootout victory over Pittsburgh that ended the Penguins' eight-game win streak, Atlanta maintained that momentum with a 5-1 road victory over league-leading Detroit on Tuesday. Montreal has been impressive on the road, but I feel they will have a 'let down' this evening; look for the Canadiens to fall to 6-10 (-5.4 units) after a win of two goals or more (won 3-1 Tuesday over the Islanders)!
Play on the THRASHERS!
CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS
NBA:
CLEVELAND/SAN ANTONIO UNDER 182
CBB:
TENNESSEE -10.5
MARQUETTE +3.5
Ben Burns free play
UNDER Canadiens/Thrashers
Reason: Led by sniper Ilya Kovalchuk, the Thrashers aren't normally thought of as a "defensive" team. However, they've actually been playing rather well at that end of the ice recently. In fact, despite slipping above the number on Tuesday, the Thrashers have seen the "under" go 3-1 their last four games. The Canadiens saw their streak of high-scoring games come to an end when they managed only one goal, en route to a 4-1 loss, at Madison Square Garden on Saturday. The Canadiens power play, which had been clicking, produced just one goal on eight opportunities. That goal came in the third period with the Rangers leading 4-0. Note that Montreal also came up empty on two 5-on-3 advantages totaling 2:44 in time. The Canadiens followed that up by combining with the Islanders for just four goals on Tuesday. Looking at the series history and we find that both this season's meeting produced five combined goals. Looking back further and we find the "under" at an impressive 10-1-1 the last dozen times that these teams faced each other.
Consider a play on the UNDER
RAS Totals
San Jose St UNDER 130
Siena OVER 145
Black Magic Sports
0-4 Yesterday
NCAA Basketball
5 Unit Black Magic Big Ten Beatdown on Indiana -1.5
The Indiana Hoosiers will put Tubby Smith’s Minnesota Gophers in their place tonight. The Gophers have been cruising along, playing a very weak schedule to this point and now their true colors will show against one of the nation’s best teams. Indiana has now won 10 straight games, their longest streak since the ‘92-93 season. The Hoosiers are 14-1 on the year and they flaunt the best guard and best forward the Big Ten has to offer. Freshman Eric Gordon leads the Big Ten in scoring at 23.0 points per game. D.J. White is a double-double machine in the middle for the Hoosiers. Minnesota has no answer for the depth on the Hoosier’s roster as well. Minnesota is 0-9 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons. Indiana is 7-0 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) over the last 2 seasons. Minnesota is 0-8 ATS vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. This combined 24-0 System hits the spot tonight. Cash in with Indiana as the favorite.
3 Unit Sharp Play on Akron -7
Akron is 8-0 at home this season, putting up 19 points per game more than their foes on average. The university of Ohio Bobcats can’t even be mentioned in the same breathe as Akron in the state of Ohio. Akron may be the best team this state has to offer and they will prove it tonight. Akron beat Ohio by 31 points in their last meeting in 2007. Akron is 15-3 ATS in home games after playing a road game over the last 3 seasons. Cash in with Akron as the favorite.
3 Unit Sharp Play on UConn -8.5
UConn is putting a coming out party on display this year. Their 5 returning starters have the Huskies at 11-4 on the season. UConn nearly upset Georgetown on the road in their last game before a desperation 3-pointer by 7-footer Roy Hibbert gave the Hoyas a 72-69 victory. This UConn team has grown up in a hurry and they will bounce back in a big way tonight. Providence got beat by 29 points at Marquette and followed that up by a 5-point road loss at Depaul in their last two road games respectively. Providence is 0-8 ATS in road games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons. Cash in with UConn as the favorite.
NBA
4 Unit NBA Game of the Night on Denver Nuggets -2.5
The Denver Nuggets have been a completely different team at home this season. With a 15-5 home record, the Nuggets are scoring over 108 points per game in Denver and giving up just 99 points. Utah heads into this game with a 6-14 road record, one of the worst in the league. Denver is 21-8 ATS in home games after a game with 20 or more offensive rebounds since 1996. The Nuggets’ ability to grab offensive rebounds and get second chance points is their forte. Cash in with Denver as the favorite.
Marco D' Angelo
CBB Sides
triple-dime bet Fresno St. -2.5 vs San Jose St.
Analysis: Very Tough spot for San Jose St who returns from playing in Hawaii on Monday Night. I expect San Jose St to be flat tonight off of the combination of the narrow loss and trip to Hawaii in General. Fresno St takes the momentum out on the road after their Blowout Win at home over Idaho. Fresno St will be ready for San Jose ST. as last year they had two close games with them. TAKE FRESNO ST as MARCO'S 7* COLLEGE KEY RELEASE BLOWOUT and make them a TRIPLE DIME PLAY
Stan Sharp...
CBB Sides
double-dime bet Minnesota 2.0 vs Indiana
Analysis: Indiana travels to Battle Minnesota and Stan and all 3 of his Top College Bettors believe the Wrong team is Favored here. This line is based on name and not talent. Expect Minnesota to Wins this game outright. TAKE MINNESOTA as STAN'S COLLEGE FALSE FAVORITE BIG BET OF THE MONTH and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY
Teddy Covers
Sometimes, I get a little leery of laying big points in college hoops. This is one game where the chalk was a little bit too much to lay, leaving me with only a strong opinion, not a service play for my clients.
West Virginia is one of the easier teams to handicap in college basketball. The Mountaineers do one thing extremely well – they play pressure defense, causing all kinds of problems for opposing teams that don’t handle the basketball well. When Bob Huggins squad faces a team with good guard play that can handle the pressure, West Virginia loses. However, when the Mountaineers face an opponent that doesn’t have good guard play, the results have been downright ugly for those foes.
West Virginia has played eight ‘true’ home games this year at the WVU Coliseum in Morgantown. They’ve won every single one of those games by 15 points or more, nary a competitive contest in the bunch, including a 20 point blowout over Syracuse this past weekend and a 15 point win over a nationally ranked Marquette team. Opposing teams are shooting only 34% in Morgantown this year, held to a truly woeful 0.46 assist-to-turnover ratio, committing more than 19 turnovers per game against that pressure defense.
The Red Storm have an 0.76 assist-to-turnover ratio on the road, without the type of guard play that can keep this game from turning into a rout. In two road games against quality competition, St John’s lost by 16 at UConn and by 19 at Miami-FL. Their two leading scorers, forwards Justin Burrell and Anthony Mason Jr are both turnover machines, neither with the type of ‘good hands’ that we look for out of strong low post players. Point guard Eugene Lawrence and his backup, frosh Malik Boothe, are both prone to turnovers as well. Look for this one to get ugly for the road underdog.
Take West Virginia -16.5
ROOT
Chairman - Lakers
Millionaire - Stanford
Money Maker - Cal
No Limit - St Louis
Insiders Circle - Minnesota