Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Saturday 11/17/18
Road side won last four Drexel-LaSalle games; Dragons won their last two visits here, by 2-13 points. Drexel scored 64 ppg in losing both its D-I games this year- they crushed a stiff in last game, with means little. Dragons are shooting 40% outside arc, 39.3% inside arc. LaSalle allowed 78 ppg in losing its first three games; Explorers are starting a frosh, two sophs- they were killed on boards in first three games. A-14 home favorites are 8-8 vs spread this year; CAA road underdogs are 7-4.
Wm & Mary lost tough 100-95 game at Ill-Chicago Thursday; Tribe made 15-34 on arc, had lead in last minute, but lost. W&M starts three juniors; all their subs are frosh/sophs- their best two guys played 41:00 each at UIC. Notre Dame got upset at home by Redford Wednesday; Irish start two juniors, two seniors. ND made only 28.6% of its 3’s in their first three games- they had wins by 17-27 points. ACC home favorites are 12-4 vs spread this month; CAA road underdogs are 7-4.
This is Yale’s first game back in US after playing in China last week; Bulldogs beat up on Cal by 17 over there- they start three seniors, two juniors, are #39 in minutes continuity, but teams have had trouble adjusting after coming back from Asia. Memphis lost by 9 at LSU Tuesday; Penny Hardaway’s Tigers start two freshmen; they were 10-30 on arc in Baton Rouge. AAC home favorites are 5-9 vs spread this season; Ivy League road underdogs are 4-1 vs spread.
Saint Louis won its first three games, allowing 60.3 ppg; Billikens head out on road for first time having made only 23.9% of its 3’s at home- they’re forcing turnovers 21.9% of time, and are moving up in class, visiting a top 60 Big East team here. Seton Hall start two sophs and two juniors; Pirates lost by 23 at Nebraska Wednesday- they were 2-16 on arc, minus-6 in turnovers (14-8). Big East home favorites are 2-9 vs spread so far this season; A-14 underdogs are 2-4.
Bradley won its first two D-I games, beating couple of OVC teams by 11-9 points; Braves start a senior and three juniors- they’re #18 in USA in minutes continuity. Bradley plays slow tempo games; so far their tempo is #289 out of 353 D-I teams. Ill-Chicago is 1-3, splitting pair of OT games in last two games; Flames allowed 84+ points in all four games. UIC is playing the #31 pace in country, are making 40% of 3’s- they start four juniors and a freshman. MVC teams are 4-7 vs spread on the road; Horizon teams are 4-6 at home.
Texas State beat Air Force by 10 in its only D-I game eight days ago; they beat a stiff by 45 since then. Bobcats start three juniors, two seniors; they’re #57 experience team in country. Drake has its third coach in three years; Bulldogs are #338 team in minutes continuity- they lost first I-A game 100-71 at Colorado- Drake was 11-37 on arc- they took only 25 3’s, but they do start three seniors, just guys who haven’t played together much. Sun Belt teams are 7-7 vs spread away from home this year; MVC teams are 2-2 vs spread at home.
Portland won its last meeting with Northridge by 18 two years ago; Pilots lost both D-I games in Hawai’i, giving up 80 ppg. Portland starts a freshman and three sophs- they’re #322 experience team in country, CSUN is 3rd-least experienced team in country; they start three frosh, a soph and the coach’s son, who was a scrub at Siena three years ago and transferred in when his dad got hired. Big West dogs are 9-9 vs spread this season; WCC favorites are 8-1, 4-0 away from home. Last 3+ years, Big West teams are 32-28 vs spread when playing WCC squads.
Montana scored 87 ppg in winning its first two D-I games; Griz played start three seniors, are #14 experience team in country- they’re shooting 69% inside arc. Montana played three guys 29:00+ last nite. Miami OH split its first two D-I games- they beat North Dakota State by 11 last nite, playing three guys 30+ minutes. RedHawks start three sophs, are #219 experience team. Big Sky teams are 5-7 vs spread away from home; MAC teams are 6-9 vs spread.
Michigan pounded on Villanova by 27 Wednesday; Wolverines won their first three games, allowing average of 42.3 ppg. Winners play again Sunday, so main danger for backing Michigan is that Beilein will call off dogs early to rest guys for Sunday’s final. George Washington is off to terrible start, losing home games to Stony Brook/Siena, then losing by 19 at Virginia (was 42-17 at half). Colonials are #266 experience team; they’re shooting only 54% on foul line- they were 16-34 on line in their OT loss.
South Carolina is off to 2-1 start, beating couple of stiffs, losing at home to Stony Brook; USC is 19-17 SU since making Final Four two years ago- they’re starting two seniors, forcing turnovers 23.6% of time, but making just 28.6% of their 3’s. Providence beat Siena/Holy Cross by 10-9 point, but lost by 3 to young Wichita squad on neutral floor. Friars are #264 experience team that is turning ball over 22.8% of time. SEC teams are 4-6 vs spread away from; Big East teams are 2-4. Last 3+ years, Big East teams are 15-13 vs spread when playing SEC squads.
UCSB scored 1.30 pts/possession is 91-69 win at Montana State LY. Santa Barbara split pair of D-I road games to open this year; Gauchos are turning ball over 21.8% of time, they’re starting a frosh and two sophs, are #341 team in minutes continuity (out of 353). Montana State is 0-3 vs D-I teams, giving up 87.3 ppg; they lost by 4 at Colorado State in last game- bobcats made 14-35 on arc, led by 6 with 12:35 to play. Big West home favorites are 2-2 vs spread; Big Sky road dogs are 3-7. Last 3 years, Big Sky teams are 24-15-1 vs spread when facing Big West teams.
Villanova got crushed 73-46 at home by Michigan Wednesday; Wildcats are #227 experience team that lost four starters off its national title game- their wins this year are by 23-33 points over stiffs, but Furman is no stiff, having already won at buzzer at Loyola-Chicago. Paladins are #246 experience team that starts a frosh and two sophs. 5-11 junior Lyons made 15-34 on arc in last game, tying an all-time record for most 3’s in a game. SoCon road underdogs are 6-6 vs spread this year. Big East home favorites are 2-9.
Western Illinois beat Eastern Illinois two of last three years; WIU beat Eastern by hoop LY, after trailing by 7 with 5:12 left. Western lost by only 11 at Creighton in their opener, then beat up on couple of stiffs- they started two sophs and a frosh at Creighton. Eastern lost its first two D-I games by 12-6 points, giving up 71 points both games. EIU turned ball over 25% of time in those games; Panthers are #301 experience team. OVC home favorites are 3-1 vs spread this season; Summit League road underdogs are 5-8 vs spread.