Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Monday 2/11/19
Virginia is 0-2 vs Duke, 20-0 vs everyone else; Cavaliers are 4-1 on ACC road, with closest win in OT at NC State. North Carolina won its last seven games; they needed OT beat Miami at home Saturday. Tar Heels are 6-4 this season vs top 50 teams. Virginia won six of last nine games with UNC, winning last three, by 12-10-8 points; Cavaliers are 3-2 in their last five visits to Chapel Hill. Virginia is 16-8 vs spread in its last 24 ACC road games, 4-1 this year; last three years, UNC is 14-9 vs spread in ACC home games, 2-3 this year (4-1 SU).
Kansas played three starters 36:00+ in Saturday’s win; injuries/defections have thinned their roster. Jayhawks lost their last four road games. TCU is 4-0 at home, 1-5 on road in Big X games; they upset Iowa State on road in last game. Kansas beat TCU 77-68 at home Jan 9, forcing 20 turnovers (+8); Jayhawks won 13 of last 14 games with TCU, winning last five visits to Fort Worth (three by 6 or fewer points). Kansas is 8-6 in its last 14 games as an ACC road underdog, 0-2 this year; under Dixon, Horned Frogs are 11-10-1 in Big X home games.
Baylor hammered Oklahoma 77-47 in Norman two weeks ago, making 10-20 on arc and 56.8% of shots inside arc. Bears won four of last five series games, with three of those wins by 23+ points. Sooners lost last two visits to Waco, by 6-23 points. Oklahoma lost its last four games, three of them at home; Sooners are 1-4 on Big X road, with losses by 7-7-3-8 points, and a win at Oklahoma State. Oklahoma is 11-8-2 in its last 21 games as a road underdog, 2-0-1 this year; over last four years, Bears are 10-14 vs spread as a Big X home favorite, 1-1 this year.
Portland State lost its last two games, is 4-7 in Big Sky, 2-5 on road; they’re turning ball over 20.8% of time in league games. Sacramento State is 3-8 in Big Sky, 1-3 at home, with only win by 21 over Idaho. Hornets are 1-5 in Big Sky games decided by 6 or fewer points. Hornets are 7-4 in its last 11 games with Portland State; underdogs covered five of last six series games. Vikings lost last two visits to Sacramento, by 3-5 points. PSU is 6-11 vs spread in last 17 games as a Big Sky road underdog; Hornets are 9-16 in last 25 games as a home favorite, 1-2 this season.
By David Schwab
Big Monday on ESPN starts things off with a big showdown in the ACC between the No. 3 Virginia Cavaliers and the No. 8 North Carolina Tar Heels in Chapel Hill.
Moving to the Big 12 in a 9 p.m. start, the No. 13 Kansas Jayhawks will be on the road against the TCU Horned Frogs. As a bonus tilt in that same conference, the Oklahoma Sooners go on the road to tangle with the Baylor Bears.
Opening Odds - per BetOnline.ag
No. 3 Virginia Cavaliers at No. 8 North Carolina Tar Heels (ESPN , 7:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Virginia -1, Total 143
Betting Matchup
Coming off Saturday night’s 81-71 loss to Duke as a two-point home favorite, Virginia will look to avoid a straight-up two-game losing streak after losing just one other game all season long. At 20-2 SU overall with a 8-2 record in ACC play, the Cavaliers have now failed to cover in their last three games to fall to 16-6 against the spread. They are still a profitable 7-1 ATS on the road. The was the first time all season that Virginia’s defense allowed more than 72 points. Both losses have come against the Blue Devils.
North Carolina needed overtime to get past the Miami Hurricanes on Saturday in an 88-85 victory as a heavy 15 ½-point home favorite. The Tar Heels improved to 9-1 SU in the ACC as part of an overall record of 19-4. The total has gone OVER in four of their last six games. This was just the second time they failed to cover in their current SU seven-game winning streak. The lone conference loss was against Louisville on Jan. 12. Freshman guard Coby White posted 33 points in Saturday’s win . He continues to lead North Carolina in scoring with 15.9 points per game.
Betting Trends
-- The Cavaliers have covered ATS in seven of their first 10 ACC games and the total has stayed UNDER in three of their last for conference games before going 135 ½ points on Saturday night.
-- The Tar Heels are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five home games and the total has gone OVER in three of those five contests.
-- Virginia has won the last three meetings both SU and ATS with the total staying UNDER in four of the last five meetings.
No. 13 Kansas Jayhawks at TCU Horned Frogs (ESPN, 9:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: TCU -2, Total 148
Betting Matchup
The Jayhawks are 2-3 both SU and ATS in their last five games, but they ran past Oklahoma State on Saturday as 10 ½-point home favorites. The total went OVER the closing 137 ½-point line in the win and it has gone OVER in four of their last six games. One of Kansas’s seven SU conference wins (against four losses) came against TCU on Jan. 9 with a 77-68 victory at home as a six-point favorite. Junior forward Dedric Lawson is averaging a team-high 19.6 points and he has eclipsed that average in three of his last five starts.
TCU improved to 5-5 SU in the Big 12 with back-to-back victories against Oklahoma State at home as an 8 ½-point favorite and Iowa State on Saturday in a 92-83 win as a 9 ½-point road underdog. The total has gone OVER in its last four games. Saturday’s win was the first time the Horned Frogs covered the closing number in their last four outings. Freshman guard Kendric Davis had the hot hand against Iowa State with a season-high 22 points.
Betting Trends
-- The Jayhawks have failed to cover in their last four Monday games and the total has gone OVER in their last five games played on Monday.
-- The Horned Frogs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games with the total going OVER in six of their last eight Monday games.
-- The favorite in this matchup has covered in three of the last five meetings with one of those games ending as a PUSH. The total has stayed UNDER in the last two games between the two.
Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears (ESPN2, 9:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: OFF
Betting Matchup
With Saturday’s 66-54 loss to Texas Tech as slight 1 ½-point home underdogs, the Sooners’ SU losing streak reached four games while going 1-3 ATS. They are now 3-8 SU in Big 12 play as part of an overall record of 15-9. They have gone 16-6-2 ATS with the total staying UNDER or ending as a PUSH in 15 of those 24 games. Oklahoma is allowing an average of 67.9 PPG, but it has allowed 70 points or more in six of its eight losses in the conference.
Baylor beat the Sooners 77-47 on Jan. 28 as a 5 ½-point home favorite as part of a six-game wining streak (SU and ATS). However, it has now lost its last two games (SU and ATS) with Saturday’s 70-63 setback against Kansas State at home in a game that closed as a PICK. The total went OVER 126 points on Saturday and it has gone OVER in nine of the Bears’ last 12 games. Baylor was without its top scorer against Kansas State with senior guard Makai Mason (16.1 PPG) sidelined with a foot injury. He is day-to-day for Monday night.
Betting Trends
-- The Sooners are 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 road games and the total has stayed UNDER in two of their last three games on the road.
-- The Bears have a 9-6 record ATS in their last 15 games at home with the total staying UNDER in nine of those games.
-- Baylor has won four of the last five meetings SU and it has a 5-1 edge in the last six games between the two. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of the last 10 meetings overall.
Poison Ivy Trends
February 10, 2019
By Marc Lawrence
With the college basketball season now in full conference swing, let’s examine a handicapping theory that yields a much better return on your investment than the banks do these days.
It deals with teams playing back-to-back days without rest during the regular season. In particular, Ivy League games noted for playing back-to-back contests on Friday and Saturday nights.
What we’re looking to target on is how brain-chain teams fare the second night of these affairs no-rest affairs. Let’s take a closer look at a few of the more suitable situations.
Creaky Double Digit Chalk
According to our database, the worst role for these teams is as double-digit home favorites, where they are just 62-94-3 ATS overall heading into this year since the 1990-91 season.
Even worse, double-digit home chalk with a .687 or greater win percentage are just 23-45 ATS.
Digging deeper, if these tired .687 or greater hosts are laying doubles digits at home facing an opponent that is coming off consecutive losses they dissolve faster than an Alka Seltzer tablet in a glass of ice-cold water, going 3-22 ATS. Now that’s cold.
Fool Me Twice
Revenge serves as a major motivating tool in these no-rest Ivy League matchups, especially when we bring a visiting team in as a dog in with double-revenge incentive from a pair of losses suffered last season.
That’s confirmed by a 54-36-2 ATS mark when these wonder-boys are on the road, including 43-23-1 ATS when taking seven or more points when fueled with double-revenge incentive.
Better yet, bring these hungry revengers in off consecutive losses as 7-point or larger dogs and they make the Dean’s List, going 24-8 ATS (see Brown +12 against Princeton earlier this season).
Triskaidekaphobia Road
Our third and final theorem occurs when these non-rested Ivy Leaguers are on the Saturday night road off a loss of 13 or more points.
Dress them up as dogs (or pick) in this role and they are 79-61-3 ATS, including 41-24 ATS when taking 10 or more points.
Bring them into these same games with a win percentage of .400 or less and they ratchet up to 36-14 ATS, including 19-2 ATS when taking 17 or more points.
There you have it, the perfect calamine lotion for Ivy League teams in search of a remedy for a little extra Saturday scratch.
No. 3 Virginia Cavaliers at No. 8 North Carolina Tar Heels (ESPN , 7:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Virginia -1, Total 143
Betting Matchup
Coming off Saturday night’s 81-71 loss to Duke as a two-point home favorite, Virginia will look to avoid a straight-up two-game losing streak after losing just one other game all season long. At 20-2 SU overall with a 8-2 record in ACC play, the Cavaliers have now failed to cover in their last three games to fall to 16-6 against the spread. They are still a profitable 7-1 ATS on the road. The was the first time all season that Virginia’s defense allowed more than 72 points. Both losses have come against the Blue Devils.
North Carolina needed overtime to get past the Miami Hurricanes on Saturday in an 88-85 victory as a heavy 15 ½-point home favorite. The Tar Heels improved to 9-1 SU in the ACC as part of an overall record of 19-4. The total has gone OVER in four of their last six games. This was just the second time they failed to cover in their current SU seven-game winning streak. The lone conference loss was against Louisville on Jan. 12. Freshman guard Coby White posted 33 points in Saturday’s win . He continues to lead North Carolina in scoring with 15.9 points per game.
Betting Trends
-- The Cavaliers have covered ATS in seven of their first 10 ACC games and the total has stayed UNDER in three of their last for conference games before going 135 ½ points on Saturday night.
-- The Tar Heels are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five home games and the total has gone OVER in three of those five contests.
-- Virginia has won the last three meetings both SU and ATS with the total staying UNDER in four of the last five meetings.
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No. 13 Kansas Jayhawks at TCU Horned Frogs (ESPN, 9:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: TCU -2, Total 148
Betting Matchup
The Jayhawks are 2-3 both SU and ATS in their last five games, but they ran past Oklahoma State on Saturday as 10 ½-point home favorites. The total went OVER the closing 137 ½-point line in the win and it has gone OVER in four of their last six games. One of Kansas’s seven SU conference wins (against four losses) came against TCU on Jan. 9 with a 77-68 victory at home as a six-point favorite. Junior forward Dedric Lawson is averaging a team-high 19.6 points and he has eclipsed that average in three of his last five starts.
TCU improved to 5-5 SU in the Big 12 with back-to-back victories against Oklahoma State at home as an 8 ½-point favorite and Iowa State on Saturday in a 92-83 win as a 9 ½-point road underdog. The total has gone OVER in its last four games. Saturday’s win was the first time the Horned Frogs covered the closing number in their last four outings. Freshman guard Kendric Davis had the hot hand against Iowa State with a season-high 22 points.
Betting Trends
-- The Jayhawks have failed to cover in their last four Monday games and the total has gone OVER in their last five games played on Monday.
-- The Horned Frogs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games with the total going OVER in six of their last eight Monday games.
-- The favorite in this matchup has covered in three of the last five meetings with one of those games ending as a PUSH. The total has stayed UNDER in the last two games between the two.
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Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears (ESPN2, 9:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: OFF
Betting Matchup
With Saturday’s 66-54 loss to Texas Tech as slight 1 ½-point home underdogs, the Sooners’ SU losing streak reached four games while going 1-3 ATS. They are now 3-8 SU in Big 12 play as part of an overall record of 15-9. They have gone 16-6-2 ATS with the total staying UNDER or ending as a PUSH in 15 of those 24 games. Oklahoma is allowing an average of 67.9 PPG, but it has allowed 70 points or more in six of its eight losses in the conference.
Baylor beat the Sooners 77-47 on Jan. 28 as a 5 ½-point home favorite as part of a six-game wining streak (SU and ATS). However, it has now lost its last two games (SU and ATS) with Saturday’s 70-63 setback against Kansas State at home in a game that closed as a PICK. The total went OVER 126 points on Saturday and it has gone OVER in nine of the Bears’ last 12 games. Baylor was without its top scorer against Kansas State with senior guard Makai Mason (16.1 PPG) sidelined with a foot injury. He is day-to-day for Monday night.
Betting Trends
-- The Sooners are 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 road games and the total has stayed UNDER in two of their last three games on the road.
-- The Bears have a 9-6 record ATS in their last 15 games at home with the total staying UNDER in nine of those games.
-- Baylor has won four of the last five meetings SU and it has a 5-1 edge in the last six games between the two. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of the last 10 meetings overall.
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NCAAB
Long Sheet
Monday, February 11
VIRGINIA (20 - 2) at N CAROLINA (19 - 4) - 2/11/2019, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA is 33-54 ATS (-26.4 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 since 1997.
VIRGINIA is 34-53 ATS (-24.3 Units) in road games off a loss against a conference rival since 1997.
N CAROLINA is 28-17 ATS (+9.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
N CAROLINA is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all home games over the last 3 seasons.
N CAROLINA is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
N CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games when playing with one or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
N CAROLINA is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in home games after scoring 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all games this season.
VIRGINIA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all lined games this season.
VIRGINIA is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
VIRGINIA is 3-1 against the spread versus N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
VIRGINIA is 3-1 straight up against N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OKLAHOMA (15 - 9) at BAYLOR (15 - 8) - 2/11/2019, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in February games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1997.
OKLAHOMA is 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all lined games this season.
OKLAHOMA is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
BAYLOR is 4-1 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA over the last 3 seasons
BAYLOR is 4-1 straight up against OKLAHOMA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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KANSAS (18 - 6) at TCU (17 - 6) - 2/11/2019, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.
KANSAS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games this season.
KANSAS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road lined games this season.
TCU is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
TCU is 116-155 ATS (-54.5 Units) in all home games since 1997.
TCU is 116-155 ATS (-54.5 Units) in home lined games since 1997.
TCU is 164-206 ATS (-62.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1997.
TCU is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in home games when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.
TCU is 189-237 ATS (-71.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS is 3-2 against the spread versus TCU over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS is 5-1 straight up against TCU over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PORTLAND ST (9 - 13) at SACRAMENTO ST (9 - 11) - 2/11/2019, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PORTLAND ST is 5-12 ATS (-8.2 Units) in all games this season.
PORTLAND ST is 5-12 ATS (-8.2 Units) in all lined games this season.
PORTLAND ST is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
PORTLAND ST is 10-20 ATS (-12.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO ST is 5-0 against the spread versus PORTLAND ST over the last 3 seasons
SACRAMENTO ST is 3-2 straight up against PORTLAND ST over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NCAAB
Monday, February 11
Trend Report
Virginia @ North Carolina
Virginia
Virginia is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games on the road
Virginia is 20-2 SU in its last 22 games
North Carolina
North Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
North Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Oklahoma @ Baylor
Oklahoma
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma's last 6 games when playing Baylor
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma's last 5 games when playing on the road against Baylor
Baylor
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baylor's last 6 games at home
Baylor is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oklahoma
Kansas @ TCU
Kansas
Kansas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against TCU
Kansas is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games when playing TCU
TCU
TCU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
TCU is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games at home
Portland State @ Sacramento State
Portland State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Portland State's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Portland State's last 14 games on the road
Sacramento State
Sacramento State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Portland State
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Sacramento State's last 12 games when playing Portland State
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