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NCAAB Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends For Friday 3/22/19

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shazman

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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Friday 3/22/19

Posted : March 21, 2019 8:19 pm

shazman

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Posts: 57819

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Iowa lost six of its last eight games; they’re in NCAA’s for first time in three years. Hawkeyes are experience team #223 that gets 22.9% of its points on foul line- McCaffery was suspended for two of those games, after cursing out a ref after a game. Cincy beat UConn of AAC by 19 in November. Cincinnati won seven of its last nine games; they’re experience team #98 that plays a slow (#338) pace. Bearcats lost by 8 to Ohio St in their only Big 14 game. McCaffery is 2-1 in NCAA first round games; Cronin is 5-3. Last four teams, teams are 11-11-1 vs spread in Big 14-AAC matchups. Last six years, favorites are 16-8 vs spread in 7-10 games.

Oklahoma/Ole Miss both lost in first round of their conference tourney; Sooners lost eight of last 12 games, Rebels lost five of last seven. Oklahoma is experience team #45 whose defense had #28 eFG%; they beat Florida by 5 in only SEC game. Ole Miss beat Baylor by 8; they’re #183 experience team that that forces turnovers 21% of time. Kruger is 2-3 in first round games at Oklahoma; Davis was 2-1 in first round games at Middle Tennessee, winning as 12-15 seeds. Last three years, underdogs are 7-5 vs spread in 8-9 games. This season, Big X teams are 11-8 vs spread when playing an SEC opponent.

Northern Kentucky won its last five games, is 26-8, shooting 55.3% inside arc; Norse are in field of 68 for 2nd time in three years- they lost 79-70 (+20) to Kentucky two years ago. NKU is #187 experience team; Horizon teams lost last seven first round games (2-5 vs spread); league hasn’t won an NCAA game since Butler got to national title game in 2011. Texas Tech had won nine in a row before losing in first round of Big X tourney; Red Raiders are #105 experience team that forces turnovers 23% of time, and has #2 defensive eFG% in country. Beard is 4-2 in NCAA’s, 2-0 in first round games.

Check status of K-State big man Wade, who missed Big X tourney last week. Cal-Irvine won its last 16 games; they’re experience team #44 that plays pace #296- they start three juniors, two seniors. Anteaters are 2-3 vs top 100 teams, with losses by 7-24-17 points- they beat Texas A&M, Saint Mary’s. Kansas State won 10 of its last 13 games; they’re experience team #39 that plays tempo #342. Coach Weber is 2-5 in last seven first round games. Big West hasn’t won a first round game since Pacific in 2005 (they’re 2-0 in play-in games since then); they’re 2-6 vs spread in last eight first round games. Last five years, underdogs are 12-8 vs spread in 4-13 games.

Tennessee is just 6-4 in its last ten games after starting season 23-1; Vols are experience team #53 (#3 in MC); that shoots 55.7% inside arc- their eFG% is #20 on offense, #35 on defense. Tennessee beat Kentucky Saturday, then lost SEC title game Sunday, caught break with not having to play until Friday here. Colgate is in NCAA’s for first time since the Adonal Foyle era, are experience team #205.. Red Raiders won their last 11 games. Since 2003, Patriot League teams are 9-6 vs spread in first round games, 2-5 in last seven- they covered last two, in losses by 6-4 points. Since 2011, SEC double digit favorites are 5-6 vs spread in first round.

Last year, Virginia was first #1 seed ever to lose to a 16-seed; Cavaliers won nine of their last 10 games overall, are experience team #199 that plays slowest tempo in country. Cavaliers have #4 eFG% defense in country. Gardner-Webb is in NCAA’s for first time, but they beat Ga Tech, Wake Forest of ACC this year, so no need to be intimidated; they’ve won 11 of last 13 games overall. Bulldogs make 37.7% of their 3’s. Gardner-Webb is experience team #160; they haven’t played in 12 days. Big South teams lost last seven NCAA tourney games, going 0-4 vs spread in last four; their last first round win was Winthrop in 2007.

Buffalo smoked Arizona by 21 in this round LY; they’re experience team #14 that is 5-1 vs top 100 teams this season. Buffalo won its last 12 games; they’re 12-1 outside MAC, losing by 18 at Marquette. Bulls’ last loss was Feb 1st; they force turnovers 20.5% of time, are shooting 55.7% inside arc. MAC teams are 7-3 vs spread in their last ten first round games. Bobby Hurley went 42-20 in two years coaching Buffalo; then bolted to Arizona State in 2015; his ASU team beat St John’s by 9 Wednesday, playing three guys 31:00+ in a game where ASU was 23-33 on foul line. Sun Devils are experience team #281 whose only senior starter is a transfer.

Oregon won its last eight games after being 15-12 at one point this season; Ducks are #304 experience team whose best player hasn’t played since Dec 12. Oregon’s defensive eFG% is #25 in country; they held seven of last eight opponents to 61 or fewer points. Ducks lost by 8 to Iowa this year; Badgers beat Stanford by 16. Altman is 5-0 in first round games at Oregon; Gard won both his first round tournament games. Wisconsin won six of its last eight games; they’re experience team #201 whose defensive eFG% is #10 in country. These are two slow tempo teams; Oregon plays tempo #328, Badgers #332.

Duke covered three of its last four first round games; they won ACC tournament last week, with Williamson playing 35-36-40 minutes on consecutive days. Blue Devils are 2-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200 this year, winning by 22-64 points. North Dakota State starts three juniors, has no seniors who play; Bison played eight guys 11:00+ in its win Wednesday, making 9-20 on arc. NDSU tied for 3rd in the Summit League. Since 2003, Summit teams are 2-16 in NCAA games, with only non-play-in win in ’14; last five years, they’re 3-1-1 vs spread in first round games.

Picked for 8th in Mountain West preseason poll, Utah State won 17 of its last 18 games, won MW tourney, with #19 eFG% in country; Aggies are experience team #283- they lost by 5 to Arizona State, in only game vs a Pac-12 squad. Last 10 years, Mountain West teams are 9-17 vs spread in first round games. Washington won Pac-12 regular season, lost tourney final; they went 4-3 in last seven games after starting season 22-5; Huskies are experience team #42 that forces turnovers 24.1% of time. Both coaches are in NCAA’s for first time as a head coach. This season, Mountain West teams are 7-6 vs spread when playing a Pac-12 opponent.

Georgia State won its last five games, is 24-9; they’re experience team #29 that makes 38.4% of its 3’s, scoring 38.1% of their points behind arc (#43). Panthers beat Tulane (worst team in AAC) by 4 this year. Houston is 31-3 after losing AAC title game Sunday; Cougars are experience team #145 that has best defensive eFG% in country. Sun Belt teams are 4-3 vs spread in last seven first round games, splitting last four games SU; Georgia State is in NCAA’s for 3rd time in last five years; they upset Baylor 57-56 (+7.5) four years ago, lost 68-53 (+14.5) in this round LY. Sampson is 10-8 in his last 18 NCAA games, winning five of last eight first round games.

Liberty beat UCLA by 15, Georgia State by 26; they lost by 10 at Georgetown. Flames won 18 of their last 20 games; they’re experience team #122 (#30 in MC) that makes 56.7% of its 2’s, has #12 eFG% in country. Mississippi State lost three of last five games, is 23-10; they make 37.8% of their 3’s, have #28 eFG% in country. Bulldogs are experience team #182 (#16 in MC). Howland is 19-9 in NCAA games; he made Final Four three years in row at UCLA, and is 7-2 in first round games. Atlantic Sun teams covered four of last five first round games; since 2004, they’re 8-6 vs spread.

Iona won MAAC tournament for 4th year in row, and 6th time in eight years; they’re 0-5 vs spread in NCAA games, losing last three years in this round by 13-16-22 points, with average total in those games of 167. Iona won its last ten games after starting season 7-15; they’re a bad defensive team (#275 eFG%) and they play fast (#45 pace). This was worst season MAAC has had since at least 2002. North Carolina won eight of its last nine games; they start three seniors and play #5 pace. UNC is 1-4 vs spread in its last five first round games. Last four years, #1 seeds are 9-7 against the spread in this round.

VCU’s star guard Evans hurt his leg Friday; it looked serious, check status. Rams had won 12 in a row before Evans got hurt, then they got upset by URI. VCU has #3 defensive eFG%; they’re making only 30.7% on arc, which is bad news vs a Central Florida team with 7-6 center Fall in middle. VCU is experience team #227, with only one senior on their depth chart (3rd string C). UCF lost its last eight games after winning seven of previous eight games; Knights are #20 experience team that has #13 defensive eFG%. Dawkins is coaching in NCAA for only 2nd time in 11 years as a HC. UCF beat St Joe’s by 20 in their only A-14 game this season.

Ohio State lost seven of its last ten games; they’re experience team #259 that started season 12-1, mainly because they played #245 non-conference schedule. Buckeyes play slowish (#272) pace- they shot only 32.1% on arc in their conference games. Iowa State won Big X tourney for fourth time; Cyclones are #225 experience team that is shooting 55% inside arc, and #25 eFG%, Both coaches are unbeaten in first round games; Holtmann is 4-0, Prohm 3-0. Last four years, Big X teams are 22-18 vs spread when playing Big 14 teams. Last five years, underdogs are 12-8 vs spread in 6-11 games.

Virginia Tech gets star PG Robinson back after he missed last 12 games; they went 7-5 in those games. Hokies are 24-8- they’re experience team #1000 whose bench just got little deeper with Robinson back as a starter, Tech is shooting 39.4% on arc this year (#8). Saint Louis won six of its last seven games; they won four games in four days to win A-14 tourney, despite their bench playing minutes #341. Billikens shoot only 30.8% on arc, 59.8% inside arc; their eFG% is #322 in country. SLU coach Ford is 1-6 in NCAA tourney games, 1-5 in first round, despite not being lower than a 9-seed at Oklahoma State. Williams is 8-7 in NCAA games, 4-3 in first round.

Friday’s other tournament games
Memphis won seven of its last nine games, but they lost five of last six road games; this is their first road game in 20 days. Tigers are 9-5 outside AAC; they play #7 pace in country. Memphis had easy time with San Diego Tuesday; nine guys played 12:00+. Creighton won six of its last seven games; they played four started 34:00+ Tuesday in 70-61 win over Loyola. Bluejays are #285 experience team that is shooting 38.5% on arc- they get 40.4% of their points there.

Drake had some injury issues during Arch Madness, but they haven’t played in 13 days; check status on their health. Bulldogs won seven of their last nine games; they’re on their 3rd coach in three years, are experience team #174 that won five of its last seven road games. Southern Utah lost four of its last six games; they’re experience team #265 that scored 83+ points in its last three wins, lost last three times they scored less than 83.

Posted : March 22, 2019 7:50 am

shazman

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22nd Mar 2019 | Kyle Hunter

The first day of the NCAA Tournament is in the books. Auburn’s one point win over New Mexico State was probably the craziest game of the day. Wofford and Murray State were extremely impressive in their wins. If Yale could have made a three, we could have had a 3/14 upset, but they did still get the cover. Let’s see what day two of the madness has ready for us.

No doubt the article picks have done worse in recent days than they were doing for most of the season. The Villanova -4 (1.5 unit) play pushing against St. Mary’s is a perfect example of a play that clearly should have cashed. Villanova missed the front end of a 1 and 1 twice in the final minute, and they were called for a bogus offensive foul in the last 30 seconds as well. That one should have been a win, but sometimes when you are running bad it goes that way. In any season, you’ll always have bad stretches, which is why bankroll management is so important. The Belmont/Maryland 1st Half under was just a bad play and that one was a loser. It was an 0-1-1 first day of the NCAA Tournament.

I don’t find the NCAA Tournament to be a good time to unload on big plays very often. Let’s be honest, these lines are sharper than regular season lines. The number of tickets sportsbooks are going to write on these games far exceeds what they write on even big regular season contests. Keep that in mind as you place your wagers during the NCAA Tournament.

I will continue to write this daily college hoops article through the postseason. There will be free picks inside, but I really hope that readers are able to learn a lot about the college basketball betting market through my analysis as well. My goal is to try to help you become better informed so you can improve in placing your own bets on this sport. I hope consistent readers of this daily article will feel much better informed about the college hoops market by the end of this season. These picks won’t match my premium picks, but I will be personally betting all of these selections.

We are keeping a running tally throughout the season of the selection results. For easiest tracking purposes, 1 unit will equal $100 in this article. A 2 unit play would be $200. A 3 unit play would be $300. I will be making plays from 0.5 units all the way up to 3 units. I added in half units for more flexibility. Juice will be accounted for in the tracking of the record.

NCAA Tournament Round of 64 Numbers to Know

*I’ll keep these in the article for both days so you can reference these*

All of the numbers listed below are from the Round of 64 only.

-Favorites are 221-215-2 ATS since 2005.

-Teams averaging 13.4 turnovers per game or more are just 68-89 ATS (43.3% ATS).

-Teams who had 19 wins or more in the previous season are 153-129-7 ATS (54.3%). If they are laying 6 points or less or are the underdog those teams 87-65-4 ATS (57.2%)

-The under is 227-213-8 since 2005.

-The under is 136-108 (55.7%) in games where the spread is 6 points or more. In these games with a total of 131.5 or higher, the under is 106-73 (59.2%).

Rotation #817/818- Arizona State vs. Buffalo (Buffalo -4.5, 157)

The Buffalo Bulls push the pace to the extreme. Buffalo ranks third in the nation in shortest average possession length. Buffalo is going to try to get out in transition at every opportunity here.

Arizona State ranks 44th in the country in overall tempo. The Sun Devils aren’t likely to stray from their normal plan of playing uptempo.

Both of these teams are excellent at creating second chance opportunities. Look for plenty of putbacks and trips to the charity stripe in this contest.

Buffalo’s consistency on the offensive end has been amazing this year. The Bulls have scored 82 points or more in five straight contests coming into this one. Arizona State allowed some pretty high point totals in the Pac 12, and that conference wasn’t very good offensively all season.

Look for plenty of pace and the point spread suggests a foul fest is possible late.

Pick: Arizona State/Buffalo over 157 (-105) (1 Unit) *1.05 Units to Win*

Rotation #815/816- Georgia State vs. Houston (Houston -12.5, 142)

Georgia State plays a zone defense all the time. Houston hasn’t faced many zones so far this season. The Cougars are inconsistent on the offensive end. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take some bad shots going against this unique trapping zone defense that Ron Hunter runs.

The Panthers are unlikely to try to turn this game into a track meet. They wouldn’t have a very good chance of winning that way against a team with much better talent. Houston prefers to play at a slow pace as well. The Cougars are first in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense as well. Georgia State’s offense is too reliant on D’Marcus Simonds. Houston has some lockdown defenders, and I expect them to do a good job on Simonds.

This game fits an impressive under system for the first round of the NCAA Tournament. A top 4 seed laying 2.5 points or more with a total of 136.5 or higher is 73-38 to the under (65.2%) since 2005.

Pick: Georgia State/Houston Under 142 (1 Unit)

General Live Betting Totals Tip

I think there is money to be made live betting the NCAA Tournament, especially on the totals side of things. I would watch for some of these games where teams come out of the gates fast and start blowing out a weaker opponent. The total could be inflated for a while thanks to the hot shooting from the start, but those games generally slow down later because it is a blowout and the team ahead is being classy. This gives you an in-game chance to take some unders that fit systems like the one listed above.

NCAA BB Daily Free Pick Record Season to Date- 80 Wins 60 Losses 2 Ties (+$3,595)

Posted : March 22, 2019 8:35 am

shazman

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Dark Horses to Watch
By Bruce Marshall

ANOTHER LOYOLA-CHI IN THE HOUSE?

As usual, we think there are some intriguing low and mid-majors that might be able to make some noise in the Dance. Whether any become the “next George Mason” or the “next Loyola-Chicago” remains to be seen. But it’s always fun to speculate those entries that have the capacity to create upset alerts. And who knows? Maybe one of the following will make a George Mason or Loyola-Chicago-like run to the Final Four!

Wofford (SU record 29-4; seeded 7th in Midwest, facing Seton Hall in the first round)...We hesitate to even put the Terriers in this group; the secret is out on the SoCon champs, who earned a 7-seed in the Midwest, heady stuff for a mid or low-major entry. But it seems deserved. No shame in non-league losses to North Carolina, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Mississippi State (Big Dance entries all), and SEC South Carolina was hammered by 20 at Columbia, no less. Vet HC Mike Young has taken several Wofford editions to the Dance in the past, and the Terriers have never been humiliated; now this appears the best of many very good Wofford squads in the Young era. The Terriers enter the Dance on a nation’s-best 20-game win streak (and the SoCon was not an easy touch this season), with a squadron of bombers led by dagger-throwing sr. G Fletcher Magee (20.5 ppg). Wofford has four weapons who shoot better than 40% beyond the arc, and the Terriers’ 41.6% from tripleville ranks second nationally. For good reason, nobody is overlooking these guys.

Utah State (28-6; seeded 8th in Midwest, facing Washington in first round)...Nobody saw this coming at Logan under first-year HC Craig Smith, who was a winner at previous stop South Dakota. But few expected the Utags, picked ninth in the Mountain West preseason poll, storming thru the loop and likely having sewed up an at-large even before winning the MW Tourney last Saturday at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas against San Diego State. Strengths are ball movement and a variety of deadly spot shooters, including bombs-away G Sam Merrill (21.2 ppg), who is also quite a resource at the end of the game when USU is protecting a lead, as his 90.7% FT shooting ranks nationally in the top ten. But the real Utah buzz is being created by 6-11 Portuguese frosh C Neemias Queta, who physically reminds of Deandre Ayton and has been coming on like gangbusters as the season progressed. In fact, some observers believe Queta could even be a lottery pick should he declare for the NBA Draft, especially in a year that might be more than a bit diluted. What we do know is that Queta shuts off the defensive interior like no Utag we can remember, and his shot-altering presence unnerved Fresno State and San Diego State last weekend in Vegas, as USU earned the auto bid from the Mountain.

Belmont (26-5; seeded 11th in East, facing Maryland in first round)...We think the Committee definitely got it right by inviting the Bruins, who are a familiar March entity in the era of HC Rick Byrd, a possible future HOFer. They proved so in the at-large play-in win on Tuesday vs. Temple. The recipe is basically the same as it has been for a variety of Belmont teams that have danced over the past decade, with adept ball-spacing and plenty of shooters. One of the nation’s highest-scoring teams at 87.4 ppg, the Bruins shoot plenty of 3s, led by sr. G Dylan Windler (21.4 ppg), who has connected on an eye-opening 43% of his triples the past two seasons. Good news is the return to active duty of 6-11 frosh C Nick Muszynski (14.9 ppg), a legit post scoring threat (unique to Byrd’s Belmont teams) who missed the Ohio Valley finale vs. Murray State with an ankle injury but returned on Tuesday against Temple. With Muszynski, the offense is complete, and could be a load for the Terps (or any subsequent foe) to handle.

New Mexico State (30-4, seeded 12th in Midwest, facing Auburn in first round)...The Ags dominated the WAC, arguably the most forgiving loop in the nation, but still recorded a 30-4 mark this season. No matter the opponents, 30-4 is still 30-4. Regional observers believe this NMSU edition might be better than recent Dance qualifiers out of Las Cruces, now coached by former Wichita State aide Chris Jans, who like predecessors Marvin Menzies and Paul Wier, might not be sticking around the Pan Am Center much longer. The Ags are not big, but they have plenty of shooters and go 10-11 deep, with a variety of components capable of stepping into featured roles. An impressive stat worth noting in this era of the 3-point shot, however, is that the Ags lead the nation in FG% inside the arc (56.5%), though 3-balls account for almost half of their shots (NMSU 34% beyond the arc). Very efficient team; the leading scorer, G Terrell Brown, only tallies 11.3 ppg. But the Aggies’ strength is in their balance (indeed, thirteen players average double-digit minutes!).

Liberty (28-6; seeded 12th in East, facing Mississippi State in first round)...Emerging from the Atlantic Sun was a nice accomplishment this season, especially beating a dangerous Lipscomb side twice in Nashville, including the conference title game. Unlike his long-ago days at Portland State and Colorado State, Flames HC Ritchie McKay is preaching defense with his current bunch. Beyond those two road wins over Lipscomb, Liberty won at Kent State and UCLA (not the accomplishment it once was to beat the Bruins, we know, but ask Steve Alford, dismissed shortly thereafter by the Bruins, if that result wasn’t meaningful). Plus a highly-impressive 26-point blowout of eventual Sun Belt champ Georgia State. McKay’s team has decent balance, often running the offense thru bullish 6-8 post threat and Bradley transfer, Scottie James (13.1 ppg; 67% FGs!), and is among the nation’s shooting leaders, converting 49% of its FG attempts.

Murray State (27-4; seeded 12th in West, facing Marquette in first round)...The hype has preceded electric soph G Ja (pronounced like ya-ya) Morant, considered by some to be a potential top-five pick in the upcoming NBA Draft if he so chooses to declare, which most regional observers believe will happen right after the Racers finish their season, which might last a bit longer if Morant (24.6 ppg) is as good as he was in the OVC finale vs. Belmont, when exploding for 36. Though Morant (who also averages 10 apg) is the ultimate highlight reel, Murray State is not a one-man team. It hasn’t lost since Jan. 31, and connects on nearly 57% of its shots inside the arc. Marquette, fading down the stretch, is well-advised to be on alert for the first-round matchup at Hartford.

Posted : March 22, 2019 8:38 am

shazman

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Friday - Session 1
By David Schwab

The first four games on this Friday’s 16-game slate in the second-half of the opening round of this year’s NCAA Tournament offers some interesting betting options in the South and West Regions. First up, No. 10 Iowa takes on No. 7 Cincinnati in the South. This will be followed by a matchup between No. 9 Oklahoma and No. 8 Ole Miss, which is also in the South Region.

Friday’s first game in the West Region pits No. 14 Northern Kentucky against No. 3 Texas Tech. The early sessions wraps things up with a South Region tilt between No. 13 UC Irvine and No. 4 Kansas State.

South Region (Columbus, OH)
No. 10 Iowa Hawkeyes vs. No. 7 Cincinnati Bearcats (CBS, 12:15 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Cincinnati -3 ½, 138

Betting Matchup

Iowa slipped to 10-10 straight-up in Big Ten play after losing its last four regular season games. The Hawkeyes then fell to Michigan 74-53 as eight-point underdogs in their second game of the conference tournament. Going back to a tight one-point win against Northwestern on Feb. 10 as 11-point favorites, they have failed to cover against the spread in nine of their last 10 games. Iowa is 0-4 ATS in its last four games closing as an underdog.

The Bearcats bring quite a bit of momentum into their opener after knocking off Houston 68-57 as five-point underdogs to win the AAC Tournament. This followed a pair of losses to the Cougars that cost them the regular season title. Junior guard Jarron Cumberland is one to watch in this game after posting 33 points in that recent win against Houston. He is averaging a team-high 18.8 points per game.

Betting Trends

-- The Hawkeyes have gone 9-1 ATS in their last 10 neutral-site games and the total has gone OVER in 10 of their last 13 games following a SU loss.

-- The Bearcats are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in the NCAA Tournament with the total staying UNDER in four of their last five games against the Big Ten.

-- Cincinnati won the only previous meeting both SU and ATS with the total going OVER.

South Region (Columbia, SC)
No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 8 Ole Miss Rebels (TruTV, 12:40 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Ole Miss -2, 142 ½

Betting Matchup

The Sooners lost to Kansas State as 7 ½-point road underdogs in their regular season finale ahead of an early exit in the Big 12 Tournament with a 72-71 loss to West Virginia as 6 ½-point favorites. The up and down nature of this team was evident in a SU five-game losing streak early in February with three more losses in its last five games. Oklahoma has also been a tough team to bet on lately at 3-5-1 ATS over its last nine games.

Mississippi is another team that struggled down the stretch with five SU losses in its last seven games. The latest setback was a 62-57 loss to Alabama as a 3 ½-point favorite in its SEC Tournament opener. The Rebels went 1-3 ATS in their last four games closing as favorites with a SU mark of 2-2. Ole Miss averaged 75.4 PPG this season, but it allowed an average of 70.4 points a game on defense. This defense has given up at least 71 points in five of its last seven games.

Betting Trends

-- The Sooners are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 NCAA Tournament games and the total has stayed UNDER in six of their last eight games against the SEC.

-- The Rebels have a 13-3 record ATS in their last 16 nonconference games with the total going OVER in their last four games against the Big 12.

West Region (Tulsa, OK.)
No. 14 Northern Kentucky Norse vs. No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders (TNT, 1:30 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Texas Tech -14, 137

Betting Matchup

With a share of the Horizon League regular season title at 13-5 SU along with a tournament title, the Norse bring some momentum into the Big Dance. They have won their last five games SU, but the record ATS stands at just 2-6 over their last eight contests. Northern Kentucky got a big effort from Dantez Walton with 15 points and 14 rebounds in a 77-66 upset against Wright State as a slight one-point underdog in the Horizon League’s title game.

The Red Raiders were the class of the Big 12 all season long at 14-4 SU along with Kansas State, but an early exit from the conference tournament put a damper on a recent SU nine-game winning streak. They fell to West Virginia 79-74 as heavy 13-point favorites in the opening game. This was just the second time that Texas Tech failed to cover in its last 10 games. The total has gone OVER in six of its last seven outings.

Betting Trends

-- The Norse have covered in nine of their last 12 games played at a neutral site. The total has stayed UNDER in three of their last five nonconference games.

-- The Red Raiders are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games in the NCAA Tournament with the total staying UNDER in seven of their last 10 games in this tournament.

-- Texas Tech won the only previous meeting SU with no posted betting line.

South Region (San Jose, CA)
No. 13 UC Irvine Anteaters vs. No. 4 Kansas State Wildcats (TBS, 2:00 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Kansas State -5, 119

Betting Matchup

Playing out of the Big West, UC Irvine started the season with a SU six-game winning streak and it closed out its run to the conference title in both the regular season and the postseason tournament with 16 SU wins in a row. The Anteaters have also been a solid betting team down the stretch with an 11-3-1 record ATS in their last 15 games. Junior guard Max Hazard was the team’s leading scorer this season with 12.5 PPG and he posted 23 points in the Big West title game.

Kansas State went toe-to-toe with Texas Tech in the Big 12 at 14-4 SU, including a split against the Red Raiders in the regular season series. The Wildcats came up short against Iowa State in the conference tournament with a 63-59 loss as 2 ½-point underdogs. This was part of a 6-2 run both SU and ATS over their last eight games. The total stayed UNDER in six of those eight games. Unfortunately, they will have to play on without the services of Dean Wade, who was lost to a foot injury.

Betting Trends

-- The Anteaters have gone 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games against the Big 12 and the total has stayed UNDER in six of their last eight neutral-site games.

-- The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six games played at a neutral site with the total staying UNDER in their last five games against the Big West.

-- Kansas State won the only previous meeting both SU and ATS with the total staying UNDER.

Posted : March 22, 2019 8:40 am

shazman

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Friday - Session 2
By Kevin Rogers

South Region (Columbus, OH)
No. 15 Colgate vs. #2 Tennessee (CBS, 2:45 PM EST)

Opening Odds: Tennessee -17 ½, 148

The Volunteers (29-5 SU, 17-15-1 ATS) had a nice stretch as the top-ranked team in the country during conference play. Tennessee started the SEC slate at 11-0 before falling at Kentucky on February 16 in an 86-69 defeat. The Vols went 4-3 down the stretch in the regular season to drop to the third seed in the SEC tournament, but still managed to reach the championship game as they were blown out by Auburn, 84-64.

Tennessee posted a 5-8 ATS record in the last 13 games, while compiling a 1-3 ATS mark as a double-digit favorite in the last four opportunities. The Volunteers racked up plenty of quality wins away from Knoxville this season, including beating Gonzaga, Kentucky, Florida, and Ole Miss, while losing in overtime to Kansas and LSU.

Colgate (24-10 SU, 18-14-1 ATS) captured the Patriot League title for the first time since 1996 after topping Bucknell in the conference tournament, 94-80. The Raiders are riding a 7-2 ATS run the last nine games, while eclipsing the 80-point mark in all three victories in the Patriot tournament. Colgate didn’t rack up any great wins on its resume, while losing to Syracuse, Penn State, and Pittsburgh on the road by double-digits.

Tennessee reached the round of 32 in last season’s tournament before getting bounced by Final Four participant Loyola-Chicago in a one-point setback. The Volunteers did cruise in their first round matchup against Wright State in a 73-47 blowout as 11 ½-point favorites. Colgate is in the Big Dance for the third time ever (1995, 1996), as the team that the Raiders eventually lost to each fell in the Sweet 16 those two years.

South Region (Columbia, SC)
No. 16 Gardner-Webb vs. #1 Virginia (truTV, 3:10 PM EST)

Opening Odds: Virginia -21 ½, 129 ½

The Cavaliers (29-3 SU, 23-9 ATS) have seen this movie before and left disappointed as UMBC shocked UVA in the 1/16 game last March, 74-54. The Wahoos have another shot as a top seed in the NCAA tournament this time around after finishing tied with the best record in the ACC at 16-2 alongside North Carolina. The only two losses in conference play came at the hands of Duke, while Virginia was knocked out in the semifinals of the ACC tournament by Florida State.

Virginia covered its first seven conference games before prior to a 1-4 ATS run in early February. The Cavaliers cashed in five straight games prior to a non-cover in the regular season finale against Louisville as 12-point favorites. UVA put together a solid 12-6 ATS mark as a double-digit favorite this season, while closing as a 20 ½-point favorite in the surprising setback to UMBC last season.

Gardner-Webb (23-11 SU, 17-14 ATS) is making its first ever appearance in the NCAA tournament after taking the crown of the Big South tournament. The Runnin’ Bulldogs finished third in the regular season conference standings, but knocked off the top two teams in the Big South tournament by defeating Campbell and Radford in the underdog role. Gardner-Webb has covered in seven of its past eight games, while its signature win this season came at Georgia Tech as a 13-point underdog in a 79-69 victory in December.

West Region (Tulsa, OK)
No. 11 Arizona State vs. #6 Buffalo (TNT, 4:00 PM EST)

Opening Odds: Buffalo -4 ½, 167

Last season, Buffalo (31-3 SU, 18-14-1 ATS) made headlines in the first round of the NCAA tournament by routing Arizona, 89-68 in the 4/13 matchup to make a name for itself. Now, the Bulls take on another Pac-12 squad in the Big Dance opening game as Buffalo faces old head coach Bobby Hurley, who left for Tempe in 2015 after a solid two-year stint in the MAC.

The Bulls rolled through the MAC this season with a 16-2 conference mark, while the only two losses came by a total of six points at Bowling Green and Northern Illinois. Buffalo started the season at 11-3-1 ATS, but finished at 7-11 ATS the final 18 games, although seven of those ATS defeats came as a double-digit favorite. The lone loss out of conference occurred in late December in a 103-85 setback at Marquette, while winning at Syracuse and West Virginia.

Arizona State (23-10 SU, 18-14-1 ATS) lost in the First Four round last season to Syracuse, but atoned for that defeat by holding off St. John’s in this year’s First Four, 74-65. The Sun Devils cashed as 1 ½-point favorites, as ASU limited the Red Storm to 32% shooting to rebound from a 79-75 overtime loss to Oregon in the Pac-12 semifinals.

ASU had several nice wins in non-conference play by beating Utah State, Mississippi State, and Kansas, but also lost at Vanderbilt by 16 points and was upset by Princeton as 14 ½-point home favorites. The Sun Devils posted a 6-5-1 ATS mark in the underdog role, which included conference wins at Arizona, Oregon State, Utah, and UCLA.

South Region (San Jose, CA)
No. 12 Oregon vs. #5 Wisconsin (TBS, 4:30 PM EST)

Opening Odds: Wisconsin -2 ½, 116 ½

The Ducks (23-12 SU, 20-15 ATS) have been living on the edge the last three weeks, but Oregon hasn’t lost a game since February 23 at UCLA. Oregon is riding an eight-game winning streak, capped off by a pair of wins over Pac-12 regular season champion Washington. The Ducks crushed the Huskies to capture the tournament championship and automatic tourney bid, 68-48, while finishing off a run of four wins in four days in Las Vegas.

Wisconsin (23-10 SU, 16-16-1 ATS) finished fourth in the Big 10 this season behind Michigan State, Purdue, and Michigan at 14-6. The Badgers were knocked out of the conference tournament semifinals by the eventual champion Spartans, 67-55 to fall to 2-7-1 ATS in the last 10 games. Wisconsin started Big 10 play at 3-3 before running off six consecutive wins, including handing Michigan its first loss of the season on January 19.

Oregon has clamped down on opponents during this eight-game hot stretch by allowing 54 points or fewer six times and cashing the UNDER seven times. The Ducks are on a 12-2 UNDER run since late January, as Oregon is two years removed from making it all the way to the Final Four in 2017.

Oregon and Wisconsin hooked up in the NCAA tournament in 2014 and 2015 as the Badgers eliminated the Ducks each time in the round of 32. Wisconsin won its tournament opener from 2014-17 before not qualifying last season, as the Badgers were last eliminated in the first round by Ole Miss in 2013.

Posted : March 22, 2019 8:43 am

shazman

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Friday - Session 3
By Tony Mejia

Midwest Region - Columbus, OH - Nationwide Arena
#9 Washington vs. #8 Utah State - 6:50 PM EST - TNT

Opening Odds: Utah State -3, 134.5

-- This line hasn't moved much despite the novelty of the Mountain West champion being favored over the team that ran through the Pac-12 wire-to-wire, dominating the regular season before losing to Oregon in the conference tournament final in Las Vegas. Utah State (28-6 SU, 18-15 ATS) stunned Nevada to capture the regular-season title in a memorable game that got testy and caught a break when San Diego State took down the Wolf Pack in Vegas, making the championship game far more manageable as they won 64-57.

-- The Aggies won 17 of their last 18 games, covering in seven of the last nine. West Coast Conference tourney champ Saint Mary’s was their strongest victim in the non-conference portion of their schedule. They also took down Big West champ UC-Irvine but fell to Houston, Arizona State and BYU. -- Washington (26-8 SU, 17-16-1 ATS) had a stretch of 10 consecutive covers between Jan. 5-Feb. 7, part of a 12-game unbeaten run that put the Pac-12 in its back pocket by Valentine's Day.

-- Starting wing Sam Merrill (21.2 ppg) was named the Mountain West Player of the Year after shooting 38 percent from 3-point range, which was actually down from his averages over his first two seasons, where he shot better than 45 percent from beyond the arc. He’s one of the nation’s top shooters and has knocked down over 90 percent of his free-throws, making him a huge asset late in games. The attention he commands from a defense due to his range makes the game easier for everyone else, which explains why he’s averaged over 35 minutes per game over his last two seasons.

-- While Merrill is Utah State’s most important player, its top NBA prospect is 6-foot-11 freshman center Neemias Queta, a native of Portugal. He’s agile and has excellent footwork, so even though he’ll have to put on a lot of weight and is a project as far as scouts are concerned, he’s one with loads of promise. New Mexico State’s Pacal Siakam is similarly built and has blossomed for the Toronto Raptors this season. Queta is averaging 11.9 points, 8.9 rebounds and 2.4 blocks. He’s shooting 55 percent from the field in March and has averaged 9.2 rebounds and 2.0 blocks, earning Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year honors. He’s managed to score in double-figures in all five games, matching the longest such streak of his freshman season. It will be interesting to see how he handles the Huskies’ zone defense, which can certainly be confusing and imposing.

-- The Huskies rely on defense to create easy baskets and turn miscues into points well enough to compensate for an inconsistent offense that could struggle feeding Noah Dickerson inside given Queta’s presence. He’s only 6-foot-8 but is typically a load inside and has nice touch, but he struggled immensely in the Pac-12 Tournament, shooting 6-for-18 from the field. Washington clearly has to get him going to be a factor in the NCAAs, but doing so against a team whose strength is interior defense means he’s going to need a special game right out of the gate.

-- Washington leading scorer Jaylen Nowell can really get hot and has an old-school mid-range game, so his ability to make plays with the shot clock dwindling will likely be the x-factor in who advances to face North Carolina. Point guard David Crisp and wing Matisse Thybulle, one of the nation’s most effective defensive players, both struggle to put the ball in the basket, which puts additional pressure on Nowell (16.2 ppg, 5.3 rpg), to produce to keep the Huskies’ attack from bogging down. Nowell shot just 8-for-23 over the last two games of the Pac-12 Tourney, shooting 1-for-5 from 3-point range. He went 4-for-4 in the opener against USC and went from a 35 percent 3-point shooter as a freshman to 43 percent this season.

-- Both the Huskies and Aggies were each 500-to-1 to win the entire NCAA Tournament per the Westgate Superbook.

-- The 'over' was on a 3-0-1 run prior to Utah State's MWC Championship game over San Diego State. The Aggies' 64-57 win fell well under the posted total of 133.5. The low-side is on 13-4 run in Washington games since Jan. 19.

East Region - Columbia, SC - Colonial Life Arena
#16 North Dakota State vs. #1 Duke - 7:10 PM EST - CBS

Opening Odds: Duke -27, 148.5

-- It's no surprise to see Duke (29-5 SU, 18-16 ATS) so heavily favored after its jaw-dropping performance in the ACC Tournament. After getting Zion Williamson back, the Blue Devils saw him put together a perfect 13-for-13 shooting night against Syracuse before following it up with big nights against UNC and FSU. The nation's most heralded NBA prospect shot 77 percent in the ACC Tournament, averaging 27 points and 10 boards. He's healthy following his knee sprain, which means the Blue Devils are going to be tough to beat..

-- The Blue Devils were a 9-to-4 choice at Westgate when the NCAA Tournament tipped off, making them the favorite over Gonzaga (9/2), North Carolina and Virginia (6/1).

-- The fact North Dakota State (19-15 SU, 15-17 ATS) had to play on Wednesday certainly didn't aid its cause as far as the spread is concerned, but teams have rebounded well over the past few years in this situation. We'll see how the Bison hold up after defeating North Carolina Central in Dayton.

-- NDSU shot 9-for-20 from 3-point range to rally against the MEAC champion Eagles, landing four starters in double-figures. Versatile wing Tyson Ward finished with team-highs of 23 points, six rebounds and three assists against NCCU, while point guard Vinnie Shahid added 14 points. They were the team's top scorers this season. .

-- The Bison lost to Gonzaga, Iowa State, East Tennessee State, New Mexico State by double-digits in November and December. The team's best victory this season came over Missouri State on Dec. 15. They had dropped both of their games against Omaha before pulling off an upset in the Summit League championship game.

-- Besides Williamson, freshmen starters R.J. Barrett, Cam Reddish and Tre Jones will all be playing their first NCAA Tournament game. Talent alone should help stabilize them -- particularly in this matchup -- which is helpful since there aren't many vets to lean on for advice. Junior Javin DeLaurier has the most experience, having participated in four games last season. He's averaged 5.2 points, 7.8 rebounds and 2.2 blocks over the past four games and should play a large role.

-- Junior center Marques Bolden has also played major minutes for Duke but comes into the NCAAs coming off a knee sprain that has kept him out the past few games. He's expected to play but probably won't be called on to play major minutes until next week since he'll be working his way back.

-- Duke has been favored more than 20 points on 10 occasions this season, winning every time but covering on just six occasions. In their last expected walk-over, Duke narrowly beat Wake Forest as a 24.5-point favorite in the home finale in Durham on March 5. It won 71-70

-- The Blue Devils have seen the 'under' prevail in 13 of their last 17 games and have only surpassed one of the last 13 total set at 150 or higher, which this number may approach by tip-off if public money expect to see a show in a blowout.

Midwest Region - Tulsa, OK - BOK Center
#14 Georgia State vs. #3 Houston - 7:20 PM EST - TBS

Opening Odds: Houston -12, 142

-- Kelvin Sampson continues to work wonders at Houston (31-3 SU, 20-11-2 ATS) and has delivered just the fourth 30-win season in school history. That benchmark hadn't been cleared by the Cougars since 1983-84, when Hakeem Olajuwon led the school to a National Championship game loss to Patrick Ewing-led Georgetown. Houston would set a new school record for single-season victories if it can get out of this weekend unscathed.

-- The Cougs lost in the American Athletic Conference final against Cincinnati, falling by double-digits for the first time. The 69-57 loss came as a result of 30 percent shooting, which included an 8-for-33 effort from 3-point range and an 11-for-18 showing from the free-throw line. The Cougs rebounded from their losses this season with a nine-point win over Wichita State and an 11-point victory over SMU, but both of those bounce-back games came at home. We'll see how they fare in Tulsa.

-- Houston won their first game in last year's NCAAs thanks to a Rob Gray last-second layup over San Diego State before getting denied a trip to the Sweet 16 on a Jordan Poole 3-pointer that game Michigan a 64-63 comeback win.

-- Georgia State (24-9 SU, 18-14 ATS) is a No. 14 seed after garnering a No. 15 seed last year. Cincinnati beat the Panthers 68-53 as a No. 2 in Nashville last season, but they hung around for a half before going cold. Star guard D'Marcus Simonds shot 10-for-20 from the field and scored 24 points, but the rest of his team shot 33 percent and produced just 29.

-- Simonds still struggles to shoot from beyond the arc and shot just 41.5 percent, a career-low, dealing with all the extra attention a reigning conference Player of the Year commands. Seniors Malik Benlevi, Devin Mitchell and Jeff Thomas are all back in addition to sophomore Kane Williams, who has really blossomed into a strong defender averaging two steals per game.

-- Corey Davis, Jr. leads Houston with 16.7 points per game but comes into the NCAAs nursing a hip injury. He's expected to play, but shot just 3-for-13 last time out against the Bearcats, making just two 3-pointers in 10 attempts in one of his worst outings of the season.

-- The Cougars rank among the nation's top 10 percent in 3-pointers made and attempted, while Georgia State was actually more prolific and ranks 15th in the country in 3-point percentage, shooting nearly 39 percent from beyond the arc. They shined in defending the 3-ball in Sun Belt play but will be tested here.
-- .

-- Houston has seen the under connect in its last three games, but the 'over' is 3-1 over Georgia State's last four.

East Region - San Jose, CA - SAP Center
#12 Liberty vs. #5 Mississippi State - 7:27 PM EST - truTV

Opening Odds: Mississippi State -7.5., 133.5

-- As of Friday morning, most books had adjusted their stance on Mississippi State (23-10 SU, 16-15-2 ATS) being such a heavy favorite over the A-Sun representative. Most have the number at 6.5 with it trending towards the 6-point range.

-- The Bulldogs had more wins than anyone else in the SEC outside of this year's big four of Tennessee, LSU, Kentucky and Auburn and were really strong in Starkville, but they limp into the NCAAs as losers of three of their last five.

-- Sophomore Nick Weatherspoon, younger brother of leading scorer Quinndary Weatherspoon, remains suspended and didn't even make the trip with the Bulldogs. He's missed nine games and Mississippi State has gone 6-3 without him. Older brother Quinndary is the Bulldogs' leader and top scorer (18.2 ppg) and was named First-Team All-SEC, while senior big man Aric Holman and excellent freshman Reggie Perry hold down the paint as 6-foot-10 towers inside. Guard Lamar Peters is streaky but capable of taking over games

-- The Bulldogs are in search of their first NCAA Tournament win since 2008, but must find a way to remain patient and avoid bad shots and turnovers against the Flames' pack-line defense, which has held opponents to 60.8 points per game, currently fifth-lowest in the country. Liberty (28-6 SU, 17-14 ATS) employs a deliberate pace but has held teams to 41.5 percent shooting, including 32 percent from 3-point range.

-- Scottie James leads Liberty's efforts up front and is consistently the biggest guy on the floor more often than not. He's barely 6-foot-8 and no shot blocker, which should illustrate how diligent the Flames are in utilizing position and technique to lock down opponents.

-- Head coach Ritchie McKay took New Mexico to the NCAA Tournament back in 2005 but lost to Villanova as a No. 12 seed despite the presence of future pro Danny Granger. He's leading the Flames to their first NCAA appearance since 2013. They're 0-3 in this event.

-- Counterpart Ben Howland has taken the Bulldogs to the NCAAs for the first time since 2009 and has plenty of experience, having reached two Final Fours with UCLA after also getting there with Pittsburgh and Northern Arizona. Mississippi State reached the NIT Final Four last year.

-- Rebounding will play a critical role in this game since Liberty is hasn't been too strong on the boards due to a lack of size and will be at a disadvantage in terms of athleticism. If they can't control the pace, they'll have issues slowing the game down like they failed to against Vanderbilt, Alabama, Georgetown and Austin Peay, surrendering an average of 80 points per game in the losses. Liberty beat UCLA 73-58 at Pauley Pavilion.

-- The 'under' is 8-3 in Mississippi State's last 11 games.

Posted : March 22, 2019 8:45 am

shazman

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Today's biggest bets and line moves: Bettors like UC Irvine's odds vs. Kansas State
Patrick Everson

Max Hazzard and UC Irvine have gotten bettors' attention with a 13-0 SU and 9-3-1 ATS run. Kansas State opened -5.5 for Friday's NCAA Tournament tilt, but Anteaters money took the line to 4.5.

Sixteen games down on Thursday, 16 more coming up on Friday, as the NCAA Tournament rumbles through the Round of 64. Covers checks in on the action and line movement for a handful of contests, with insights from Scott Shelton, sportsbook supervisor at The Mirage on the Las Vegas Strip.

No. 13 UC Irvine vs. No. 4 Kansas State Wildcats – Open: -5.5; Move: -5; Move: -4.5

Kansas State won the Big 12 regular-season crown, but couldn’t carry that momentum through the conference tournament. The Wildcats (25-8 SU, 19-13-1 ATS) fended off Texas Christian in the quarterfinals, then fell to eventual tourney champ Iowa State 63-59 as 2.5-point semifinal pups.

UC Irvine is the pride of the Big West Conference, winning the regular-season and conference tourney titles. The Anteaters (30-5 SU, 20-13-1 ATS) haven’t lost since Jan. 16, going 13-0 SU and 9-3-1 ATS. In Saturdays’ Big West final, UC Irvine boatraced Cal State-Fullerton 92-65 laying 9 points.

“I was a little surprised UC Irvine was getting so much attention,” Shelton said of pointspread action at The Mirage and other MGM sportsbooks. “Money is 2/1, and the Anteaters are getting more love on the moneyline. They’re a popular pick. It’s pretty lopsided for UC Irvine.”

Tipoff for this South Region tilt is at 2 p.m. ET.

No. 12 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers – Open: -1.5 Move: -1; Move: +1; Move: Pick; Move: +1; Move: -1; Move: -1.5; Move: -2; Move: -2.5; Move: -2

Oregon rides into March Madness on an 8-0 SU and ATS streak, included a four-wins-in-four-days spree as the No. 6 seed in the Pac-12 tournament. The Ducks (23-12 SU, 20-15 ATS) hammered Pac-12 top seed Washington 68-48 as 2-point favorites in Saturday’s final.

Wisconsin won four of its last five regular-season games to finish fourth in the Big Ten. The Badgers (23-10 SU, 16-16-1 ATS) then edged Nebraska in the conference tourney quarterfinals before falling to No. 1 seed Michigan State 67-55 as 5.5-point underdogs in Saturday’s semis.

“The line has bounced back and forth. I’d say the money is leaning more toward Wisconsin now,” Shelton said of this 4:30 p.m. ET tip in the South Region. “But there’s a lot of money on both sides. More tickets on Oregon, more money on Wisconsin, a lot of tickets on both sides, and more moneyline tickets on Oregon. It’s a good two-way game.”

No. 10 Iowa Hawkeyes at No. 7 Cincinnati Bearcats – Open: -3; Move: -3.5; Move: -4

Cincinnati won three games in three days in last week’s American Athletic Conference tournament. The Bearcats (28-6 SU, 14-20 ATS) rolled past fellow NCAA Tourney team Houston 69-57 as 5-point underdogs in Sunday’s AAC final.

Iowa (22-11 SU, 13-20 ATS) managed to slide into the field of 64 despite a rough stretch ahead of Selection Sunday, as it went 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six games. The lone win was over Illinois in the Big Ten tourney opener, followed by a 74-53 loss to Michigan as 8-point pups in the quarterfinals.

“Seventy-six percent of the tickets and 82 percent of the money is on Cincinnati,” Shelton said of pointspread play on the first game of the day, a 12:15 p.m. ET South Region matchup. “The moneyline is lopsided too, 3/1 money on Cincinnati.”

No. 16 Iona Gaels vs. No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels – Open: -24.5; Move: -24; Move: -23

North Carolina is rightly a monster favorite in this 9:20 p.m. ET start, as the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region. The Tar Heels (27-6 SU, 21-10-2 ATS) were on an 8-0 SU run (6-2 ATS) before meeting Zion Williamson and Duke in the Atlantic Coast Conference tourney semis, where they lost 74-73 catching 4.5 points last Friday.

Iona earned an automatic bid to the Big Dance by winning the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament. The Gaels (17-15 SU, 13-19 ATS) pounded Monmouth 81-60 laying 4 points in the March 11 final.

The line drop in this game is not indicative of where the cash is at MGM books.

“Eighty-two percent of the money is on North Carolina, and 72 percent of the tickets are on the Tar Heels,” Shelton said. “It’s a big public game, and they’re all over North Carolina.”

No. 14 Georgia State Panthers vs. No. 3 Houston Cougars – Open: -11.5; Move: -12; Move: -12.5

Houston claimed the AAC regular-season crown, but fell short of doubling up in the conference tourney. The Cougars (31-3 SU, 21-12-1 ATS) lost to Cincinnati 69-57 giving 5 points in Sunday’s final.

Georgia State won its last nine games, going 7-1-1 ATS while winning the Sun Belt Conference tourney. In Sunday’s final, the Panthers (24-9 SU, 17-14-1 ATS) topped Texas-Arlington 73-64 as 4-point favorites.

“Seventy-five percent of the money is on Houston, and 80 percent of the tickets are on Houston,” Shelton said of pointspread action for this 7:20 p.m. ET start in the Midwest Region.

No. 11 Arizona State Sun Devils vs. No. 6 Buffalo Bulls – Open: -5; Move: -4.5; Move: -5; Move: -4.5

Buffalo is on a 12-game win streak (5-7 ATS) entering this 4 p.m. ET meeting in the West Region. The Bulls (31-3 SU, 18-14-1 ATS) topped Bowling Green 87-73 as 11-point faves in the Mid-America Conference final Saturday.

Arizona State already has a win this week, having survived the First Four play-in round. The Sun Devils (23-10 SU, 18-14-1 ATS) beat St. John’s 74-65 as 1.5-point favorites Wednesday.

Much like Iona-North Carolina, the half-point tick downward in the line doesn’t tell the story of who bettors like here.

“We’re lopsided, it’s all Buffalo, 74 percent of the money and 64 percent of the tickets,” Shelton said of pointspread action.
__________________

Posted : March 22, 2019 10:31 am

shazman

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NCAAB
Long Sheet
Friday, March 22

N DAKOTA ST (19 - 15) vs. DUKE (29 - 5) - 3/22/2019, 7:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N DAKOTA ST is 33-49 ATS (-20.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
N DAKOTA ST is 33-49 ATS (-20.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
N DAKOTA ST is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
N DAKOTA ST is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.
N DAKOTA ST is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
N DAKOTA ST is 28-49 ATS (-25.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
N DAKOTA ST is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
DUKE is 136-102 ATS (+23.8 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 since 1997.
DUKE is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
DUKE is 66-91 ATS (-34.1 Units) in March games since 1997.