NCAAB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, January 24th, 2017

NCAAB Knowledge

South Carolina won five of its last six games but lost at Kentucky last game; Gamecocks are 3-0 at home in SEC, winning by 11-11-4 points. is forcing turnovers 27.7% of time in SEC games, but shooting just 41.5% inside arc. Auburn won three of last four games after starting 0-3 in SEC games; Tigers are 1-2 on SEC road, losing by 19-20 at Vandy/Kentucky winning at Missouri by 5. Tigers won six of last eight games with South Carolina, winning last three visits here by 15-8-5 points. SEC home favorites of 9+ points are 6-9-1 vs spread.

Akron won its last nine games; they’re 6-0 in MAC, with both road wins by 4 points. Zips beat Western Michigan 66-59 at home 18 days ago, despite going 7-29 on arc in game that was tied at half. Akron won its last five games with the Broncos, winning two of last three visits here (wins by 2-3 points). WMU is 2-4 in MAC but scored 90-92 points in winning only two MAC home games; Broncos are playing slowest tempo games in conference this season. MAC favorites are 8-6-1 vs spread in games with spread of 4 or less points.

Louisville won its last nine games with Pitt, winning last three visits here, by 11-12-7 points; they beat Pitt by 5 at home 13 days ago, game that was 47-27 at the half. Cardinals are 1-2 on ACC road with only win by 15 at Ga Tech- they lost at FSU/Notre Dame, are best defensive team in ACC but 2nd-worst on offense. Pitt lost its last four games after a 12-3 start; they’re 1-2 at home in ACC, splitting pair of OT games, then losing by 26 to Miami. Panthers shoot 40.5% on arc in ACC, #3 in league. ACC road favorites of 4+ points are 2-8 vs spread this season.

Purdue is 5-2 in Big 14, just 1-1 on road, winning at Ohio State by 5, losing by point at Iowa- their only other road game was 71-64 loss at Louisville. Michigan State is #313 experience team that lost three of last four games, is 4-3 in Big 14, but 3-0 at home, winning by 9-28-18 points. MSU won eight of its last nine games with Purdue, winning last three played here, by 25-23-6 points; Spartans beat Purdue 66-62 in Big 14 tourney last March. Curious to see how Spartans do against Boilers’ big men. Big 14 home underdogs of less than 5 points are 6-3 this season.

West Virginia allowed 84 pts/game in losing its last two games after a 15-2 start; now they’re favored over Kansas squad that won its last 11 games since losing to Indiana on a neutral floor Nov 11. Jayhawks are 3-0 on Big X road, winning by 6-11-4 points. Home side won last seven Kansas-West Virginia games; Jayhawks lost last three visits here, by 6-1-11 points- they also beat WV by 10 in Big X tourney last March. Kansas is shooting 42.2% on arc in Big X games. Big X home favorites of 5 or less points are 5-6 vs spread.

Villanova shot 14-23 on arc in 93-81 home win over Marquette Jan 7; Wildcats are 2-1 on Big East road, winning by 10 at Creighton, 13 at St John’s- they lost at Butler. Marquette won last game at Creighton but that was Bluejays’ first game with their best player out for year. Eagles are 4-3 in Big East, 3-0 at home, with OT win over Seton Hall best of the three. Villanova won its last nine games with Marquette, winning last three visits here, by 9-11-10 points- their last six series wins were all by 10+ points. Big East road favorites of 6 or less points are 5-3 vs spread.

Syracuse is 3-0 at home, 0-4 on road in ACC (they’ve lost 8 in row on road). Orangemen are 1-5 vs top 50 teams this year- their best win was over Miami at home. Syracuse won its three ACC games with Wake Forest by 10-3-28 points, winning 86-83 in OT in only one of the three played in Carrier Dome- they beat Deacons 83-55 on road LY. Wake scored 96-93 points in winning its last two games; their ACC road losses are by 16 at Florida St, 17 at Virginia- they won at NC State in last road game. ACC home favorites of less than 5 points are 9-6 vs spread.

Virginia won its last four games, three by 13+ points; they’re 3-1 on ACC road, with wins at Louisville/Clemson/BC- they lost in OT at Pitt. Cavaliers won their four ACC games with Notre Dame, winning by 15-6 points in two games played here. Notre Dame is 3-0 at home, scoring 78.7 pts/game in wins over Louisville/Clemson/Syracuse- their only ACC loss was at Florida State by 3 last week. Virginia forces turnovers 20.8% of time in ACC play. ND is making 42.9% of its 3’s in league games. ACC road teams are 7-4-1 in games with spread of 3 or less points.

Vanderbilt snapped 4-game skid with upset win at Florida Saturday; Commodores are 3-4 in SEC, 2-2 on road, with losses by 3 at Alabama, 8 at Georgia. Arkansas won its last three games with Vanderbilt, winning three of last five visits here- they beat Vandy in OT at home LY. Hogs won last three games by 19-2-13 points; they’re 1-3 vs top 60 teams, with best win at #53 Tennessee. Arkansas is shooting 39.8% on arc in SEC. Three of last four series games were decided by 5 or less points. SEC home favorites of less than 5 points are 3-13 vs spread.

Kentucky won its last seven games, is 3-0 on SEC road, winning by 23 at Ole Miss, 6 at Vandy, 7 at Miss State. Wildcats are shooting 41.4% on arc in SEC games. Kentucky won nine of last 11 games with Tennessee, but lost two of last three visits here. SEC double digit favorites are 7-10 vs spread, 1-2 on road. Kentucky PG Fox tweaked ankle in last game, is supposed to be OK, but Calipari’s son could see time at PG if Fox cannot go. Vols lost four of last six games; their last three losses are by 13-10-11 points- they’re 1-2 at home in SEC, beating Miss State.

Utah State lost its last three games, by 8-19-8 points; they beat New Mexico 79-75 at home Jan 4, going 10-22 on arc in game Lobos led by 1 at the half. Aggies are 0-3 on MW road, losing by 5-8-19 points; they’re making 39.5% of 3’s, best in MW. New Mexico scored 81 pts/game in winning last three games by 13-11-7 points since disturbing home loss to UNLV. Lobos are 4-3 in Mountain West games with Utah State, winning two of three here (wins here by 9-18 points). Mountain West home favorites of 7+ points are 5-3 against the spread.

Iowa State won two of last three games, winning in double OT at Oklahoma Saturday after they fell behind 28-9 early on. Cyclones are 2-2 on Big X road, losing by 2 at Baylor, 7 at TCU. Iowa State won four of last five games with Kansas State, winning last five played here, by 2-6-6-6-19 points. K-State won its last two games, scoring 87.5 pts/game- they upset West Va Saturday, Wildcats are 1-2 on Big X road, losing at Kansas/Tex Tech by total of three points. Iowa State is by far worst rebounding team in Big X. Big X home favorites of 5 or less points are 5-6.

San Diego State won its last three games by 15-19-13 points after a stumbling 8-7 start; Aztecs are turning ball over 19.2% of time in MW games, worst in league. Air Force lost last three games, dropping wild double OT game in Vegas Saturday; Falcons are 2-1 at home in MW, losing by 4 to San Jose St, beating Fresno St, Utah St. Air Force scored 76+ points in its last six games. San Diego State won 14 of its last 16 games with Air Force, winning last six in row, last two visits here by 7-32 points. Mountain West road favorites are 5-5 vs spread.

Armadillosports.com

Tuesday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Villanova at Marquette

As of early this morning, most books had Villanova (19-1 straight up, 12-7 against the spread) listed as a 5.5-point favorite. The Wildcats have won nine consecutive head-to-head meetings over Marquette, going 8-1 ATS in those encounters. The ‘over’ has hit in three straight and four of the last five in this rivalry.

Jay Wright’s team has posted a 4-1 record both SU and ATS in its five road games. Villanova took its only loss of the season at Butler (66-58) as a two-point road favorite on Jan. 4. The Wildcats have road wins at Purdue, at Penn, at Creighton and at St. John’s.

Villanova has won five in a row while going 4-1 ATS since the loss at Butler. The Wildcats’ lone non-cover during this surge came in Saturday’s 78-68 win over Providence as 10-point home ‘chalk.’ Josh Hart had 25 points, six rebounds and four assists compared to just one turnover against the Friars. Hart buried 10-of-16 from the field, including both 3-point launches. Kris Jenkins had 19 points, four boards, four assists and two steals, while Mikal Bridges scored 14 points and handed out four helpers without committing a turnover. Jalen Brunson was also in double figures with 13 points and six assists with just one turnover.

Villanova is No. 1 in the Associated Press poll and No. 2 in the RPI Rankings. The Wildcats own six Top-50 wins and 13 Top-100 scalps. Their most notable victories include home wins over Xavier and Seton Hall, in addition to road wins at Creighton and at Purdue, along with neutral court wins over Notre Dame, Wake Forest, UCF and La Salle.

Hart (19.2 points per game) paces the defending national champs in scoring, pulls down 6.5 rebounds per game and has a 72/33 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Jenkins is averaging 14.3 points and 4.2 rebounds per game, while Brunson is scoring at a 13.9 PPG clip. Brunson is handing out 4.3 APG while making 54.1 percent from the field, 44.6 percent from 3-point range and 84.1 percent at the free-throw line.

Marquette (13-6 SU, 10-9 ATS) has won 10 of its 11 home games while compiling a 6-5 spread record. The Golden Eagles have been underdogs only once, losing 93-84 to Wisconsin as 4.5-point ‘dogs on Dec. 10.

Since losing back-to-back games at Seton Hall (69-66) and at Villanova (93-81), Steve Wojciechowski’s squad has won three of its last four games, including Saturday’s 102-94 win at Creighton as a 6.5-point road underdog. Seven players scored in double figures led by Katin Reinhardt, the sharp-shooting grad transfer from USC who scored 21 points and dished out seven assists. Reinhardt drained 8-of-13 shots, including 4-of-9 from long distance. Luke Fischer had 18 points, eight rebounds, six blocked shots and three assists. JaJuan Johnson also scored 18 points.

We noted ‘Nova’s 93-81 win over Marquette as an 11.5-point home favorite on Jan. 7. The 174 combined points sailed ‘over’ the 149.5-point total. Jenkins scored 23 points while Hart tallied 19 points, seven assists and five rebounds. Markus Howard scored a team-best 21 points for the Golden Eagles.

Johnson paces five Marquette players scoring in double figures with his 13.0 PPG average. The Golden Eagles rank 18th in the nation in scoring (84.6 PPG), 16th in FG% (49.5), 3-point percentage (41.7%) and FT% (79.9%).

The ‘over’ is 11-8 overall for Marquette, but the ‘under’ is 6-5 in its home games. Regardless of the venue, the Golden Eagles have seen back-to-back ‘overs’ and four in their last five outings.

Villanova has seen the ‘under’ go 12-7 overall, 3-2 in its road contests.

Kentucky at Tennessee

As of early this morning, most betting shops had Kentucky (17-2 SU, 12-7 ATS) installed as a 10-point road favorite. If this line holds,

John Calipari’s team is atop the SEC standings with a 7-0 record in league play. The Wildcats lead South Carolina by 1.5 games after disposing of the Gamecocks by an 85-69 count Saturday as 14-point home ‘chalk.’ It was Frank Martin’s team first loss of the season with senior star Sindarius Thornwell in the lineup. He didn’t disappoint at Rupp Arena, producing 34 points and six rebounds in the losing effort. Malik Monk led the winners with 27 points on 9-of-14 shooting from the field, including 4-of-7 from 3-point range. Edrice Adebayo had 18 points, while Derek Willis contributed 12 points and seven boards.

Kentucky freshman point guard De’Aaron Fox left the win over Tennessee with an ankle injury that has him ‘questionable’ tonight at UT. Fox is averaging 16.2 points, 4.8 rebounds, 6.0 assists and 1.6 steals per game. Fox had played just eight minutes Saturday, making all three of his shots for six points and one assist. UK’s Mychal Mulder (6.5 PPG) is also ‘questionable’ after missing the win over South Carolina due to an illness.

Monk leads UK in scoring with a 21.7 PPG average. The freshman sensation is making 50.7 percent of his shots from the floor, 41.4 percent from downtown and 83.3 percent at the free-throw line. Isaiah Briscoe is averaging 14.3 points, 4.2 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.0 steals per game.

UK has won three of four road games, going 1-3 ATS. Since losing their first road game 73-70 at Louisville, the Wildcats have won at Ole Miss (99-76), at Vanderbilt (87-81) and at Mississippi State. (88-81). The only other loss for the ‘Cats this year came at home to UCLA, 97-92.

Tennessee (10-9 SU, 9-8 ATS) has been a home underdog twice, going 0-2 both SU and ATS vs. Gonzaga and South Carolina. With that said, the Volunteers are 6-1 ATS as ‘dogs on the road and on neutral courts, including three outright wins at Vandy, at Texas A&M and at East Tennessee State. They also lost by only two at North Carolina and by four to Oregon in overtime out at the Maui Classic.

Rick Barnes’s second team in Knoxville is in a four-way tie for eighth place in the SEC with a 3-4 record in conference action. UT started SEC play by winning 73-63 at Texas A&M as a 9.5-point road underdog. Following the win in College Station, the Vols dropped three in a row both SU and ATS, but they’ve responded with a pair of victories both SU and ATS in their last three outings.

Tennessee has won six of 10 home games at Thompson-Boling Arena, but it has limped to a 2-6 spread record. One of those two spread covers came Saturday when UT captured a 91-74 win over Mississippi State as a four-point home favorite. Senior guard Robert Hubbs scored a game-high 19 points to go with five rebounds and three assists without a turnover. Hubbs made 8-of-11 shots from the field. Grant Williams, a freshman forward, finished with 17 points. Admiral Schofield needed only 17 minutes of playing time and six shots to score 15 points and pull down seven boards. Jordan Bowden was also in double figures with 14 points and seven rebounds.

Hubbs (14.7 PPG) leads UT in scoring and also brings down 4.9 RPG. Williams (10.8 PPG) leads the Vols in rebounding (5.5 RPG), field-goal percentage (52.7%) and blocked shots (2.0 BPG).

The ‘over’ is 13-6 overall for UK, 3-1 in its road assignments. The ‘Cats are ranked third in scoring offense (92.9 points per game) and sixth in field-goal percentage (49.9%).

The ‘under’ is 9-6-1 overall for the Vols, but they’ve seen the ‘over’ hit at a 4-3-1 clip in their home contests.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Michigan State is a rare home underdog tonight at Breslin Center vs. Purdue, which was favored by two early this morning. The Spartans are 9-1 SU and 5-4 ATS at home, while the Boilermakers are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS on the road. Tip-off is slated for 7:00 p.m. Eastern tonight on ESPN.

The ESPN2 game at 7:00 p.m. Eastern will feature a Big 12 struggle in Morgantown, where West Virginia. will host Kansas. Bob Huggins’s squad was favored by 4.5 points early this a.m. WVU is 10-1 SU and 3-3 ATS at home, while KU is 4-0 SU but only 1-3 ATS on the road.

Notre Dame was a one-point home favorite vs. Virginia early this morning. This is an 8:00 p.m. Eastern tip. UVA is 5-1 both SU and ATS on the road this year, while the Fighting Irish owns a perfect 12-0 home record at the Joyce Center. They are 5-1 ATS at home and 10-3 ATS overall for the season.

North Carolina State won at Duke last night for the first time since 1995, winning an 84-82 decision as a 16.5-point underdog at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Dennis Smith Jr. led the Wolpack by dropping 32 points on the Blue Devils despite making just 8-of-15 attempts from the charity stripe. Smith also had six assists, four rebounds and two steals. Abdul-Malik Abu added 19 points and nine boards, while Ted Kaptia had 14 points 10 boards. Grayson Allen finished with 13 points, one rebound and two assists compared to two turnovers. The junior guard was an abysmal 1-of-9 from 3-point range and had himself in a mild form of controversy again. Granted, it wouldn’t be of note if it was anyone not named Allen, but he walked through the middle of N.C. State’s forming huddle after a timeout was called. Two N.C. State players gave him mild forearm shivers, while he showed a little attitude back. The dude just has issues.

Andrew Jones buried a 35-foot game-winning triple with 1.6 seconds remaining to lift Texas to an 84-83 win over Oklahoma last night at Frank Erwin Center in Austin. However, the Sooners still covered the number as two-point road underdogs. The Longhorns snapped a five-game losing streak and won for just the second time in Big 12 play. Despite the non-cover, Shaka Smart’s club is still 6-2 ATS in its last eight outings. OU’s Kameron McGusty missed a pair of free throws with 10 seconds left when his team was ahead by two. Kristian Doolittle had a career-high 29 points and 10 rebounds in defeat for the Sooners.

Marquette looks to upset Villanova
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com

#1 Villanova will be on upset alert when the team takes on Marquette at the BMO Harris Bradley Center on Tuesday.

There has been absolutely no championship hangover for Villanova this season, as the Wildcats have won 19 of their first 20 games. They have been rather dominant in those wins as well, covering in 11 of their 18 lined games thus far. The situation on Tuesday night suits them well, as they have covered in three of their five games as a road favorite on the season (3-1-1 ATS). Marquette, however, is an impressive 10-1 SU (6-5 ATS) when playing at home this season. The Golden Eagles should also be flying high off of a 102-94 road victory over Creighton last game. Still, beating a team like Villanova is not going to be an easy task for Marquette. The Wildcats have dominated this head-to-head series recently, going 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in the past nine meetings between these teams. Villanova also happens to be 5-1 ATS when coming off of an ATS loss on the season. Marquette, meanwhile, is 0-1 both SU and ATS when playing as a home underdog on the season. That is not necessarily a good sign when going up against the best team in college basketball.

Villanova is one of the most efficient teams in the country on both sides of the floor, as the Wildcats are scoring 123.1 points per 100 possessions (3rd in NCAA) and allowing only 92.7 points per 100 possessions (17th in NCAA). The most important player on this team is G Josh Hart (19.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.5 SPG). Hart is a guy that seemingly makes the right play every time he has the ball, and he is capable of beating his opponents from the outside and at the basket. He has had some ridiculous games from the charity stripe this season, as well, as he gotten to the line 10 or more times twice. That means that Hart knows how to draw fouls and he will certainly look to get himself some easy points on Tuesday. F Kris Jenkins (14.3 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 1.2 SPG) and G Jalen Brunson (13.9 PPG, 4.3 APG) are Hart’s two biggest sources of help. Jenkins is known best for hitting a game-winner in the championship game last year. He has, however, returned and provided a very good two-way presence for the Wildcats this season. Jenkins is a unique player in that he is both quick and strong enough to guard either guards or forwards. He is also a good three-point shooter, making him something like a college version of Draymond Green. He does, however, lack the court vision that Draymond has. Brunson, meanwhile, has seen a major increase in his role from a year ago. He is the floor general for this Villanova team and will need to be on his game on Tuesday. If he does not play well then it’s tough to imagine the Wildcats winning this one in a hostile environment.

Marquette might not play the same brand of efficient basketball that Villanova does, but the team is very good offensively. The Golden Eagles are averaging 84.6 PPG this season (18th in NCAA) and they’ll look to speed up the pace in this one a bit. Two places where Marquette might be able to beat Villanova in this one are at the point guard and center spots. G Markus Howard (12.8 PPG, 1.0 SPG) is one of the more talented point guards in the Big East this season, and he should be able to have some success against Brunson on Tuesday. Howard is faster than Brunson, and he is also a very good outside shooter (50.6% 3PT). If he is aggressive in this one then the Golden Eagles just might be able to pull off this upset. C Luke Fischer (11.7 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.4 BPG), meanwhile, is going to be the best big man on the court on Tuesday. Fischer is extremely tough to stop around the basket, and he just had 18 points, eight boards and six blocks in the win over Creighton on Saturday. He will, however, need to make sure that he stays out of foul trouble, as he has fouled out of two of the past four contests. If that happens again on Tuesday then it’s very unlikely that Marquette will be able to pick up what could be the team’s signature win under head coach Steve Wojciechowski.

Dave's CBB Tuesday
By Dave Essler

UVA/Notre Dame: The Irish haven't lost at home this season, and it's always tough to bet against them in South Bend. Even last season (as a weaker team) they only lost at home twice, and they lost AT UVA in a game where they were down big and early. They closed the gap, but it wasn't close, so motivation, Irish. UVA has Villanova next, but not until Saturday, so no real look-ahead, but that game will go a long way to determining their seed come March. So, slight situation, Irish. Neither team has a ton of weaknesses, but if UVA has a soft spot it's the perimeter defense, which plays into the Irish's offensive tendencies. UVA has been playing a BIT more inside this season, which should only help Notre Dame. I can't get past the Irish 81% FT shooting, and think that although the pace will be slower, both teams are just incredibly efficient and it might go over as well.

Kansas/WVU: A week ago I probably wouldn't have hesitated to back West Virginia here. We faded them at Kansas State the other night in anticipation of this game, but they lost the game prior to that, and struggled to beat Texas before that. So, three games can't be a look-ahead spot. Kansas has the one four-point loss to Indiana, so it's tough not to take them with +4.5 points here. However, sooner or later their marginal (at best) FT shooting is going to cost them a game, and they do have Kentucky this weekend. WVU's FT shooting isn't all that spiffy, either, so if they don't run away from Kansas I can't trust them to win it late at the line, so as of now I have to lean Kansas, which surprisingly may not be the popular play.

Marquette/Villanova: I have to think this could be Marquette's game to lose. It's a rematch from a loss at Villanova not that long ago, and as I said above, Villanova has UVA this weekend. The ugly part here is that Marquette's perimeter defense has been terrible - offensively these teams play very similar styles, Marquette just does it faster and plays better defense. Villanova has turned the ball over in Conference play, and from an efficiency standpoint Marquette is #1 in the Conference. I do think this could be a high scoring game, but clearly it will (is) a big number. The reason for me to think that way is that Marquette will push the pace. If you're fading Villanova the only way they lose is when they miss three's - and they've shot great against far better defenses, so that's playing with the Devil there. But, it's Marquette or nothing IMO.