NBA Situational Sports Betting Tips October 17-22, 2017
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
The NBA season begins on Tuesday night. It really feels like the season just snuck up on us and, to be honest, it pretty much did. The NBA calendar starts earlier this year so that the league can throw in some more off days to keep its star players from sitting out as much as they have in recent seasons. So, we start basically a week and a half or so earlier than we did last season on October 27.
Throughout the season, we’ll be looking for prime opportunities to use the schedule to our advantage. Obviously it won’t be as easy with some extra days thrown in the mix for travel and for rest so that the league isn’t so watered-down on a regular basis. But, we should still be able to find those compromising spots and use them to win bets. What’s nice about this is that you don’t even have to know the teams inside and out or have them power-rated. You’re simply looking to play on situations. We’ve had a lot of success with this in the past and hope to continue that trend.
Before we proceed, one word of caution. We’ve seen a ton of player movement this offseason. It takes time for teams to gel. That one word of caution is patience. You have six months to bet the NBA regular season. It doesn’t hurt to take two or three weeks to see what these teams have. To see how these new coaches fit. To see how the scheme changes fit. Be smart. Be selective. Limit your exposure early on.
Here are the NBA situational betting spots for the week ending October 22:
Tuesday October 17
Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers – We’ve got a two-game TNT doubleheader on Opening Night, with the Celtics against the Cavs and the Rockets against the Warriors. It should be a really interesting night of basketball. Everybody knows about the bad blood between Kyrie Irving, the Cavs, and the city. We’ll have to wait and see what the fan reaction is for Kyrie, but I’m guessing it won’t be good. There’s a lot of bad blood in the rivalry between these two teams to begin with. The Cavs are down Isaiah Thomas for the first several months of the season, so it will be fascinating to see how Tyronn Lue handles LeBron James and his substitution rotations. The end goal is a title, not a 1-0 record. Not a 10-0 record. Not a 15-5 record. The Cavs may be a little thin at the outset, so don’t be surprised if this game showcases that. On the other hand, LeBron may go nuclear and who wants to bet against that?
Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors – Remember all the concerns we had when Kevin Durant signed with the Warriors? “There’s only one ball”, they told us. Well, it seemed to work out just fine. The Houston Rockets face a similar situation with Chris Paul in the mix. It will lessen the usage of James Harden and, eventually, that will be a good thing because he has another scorer and distributor to play with. I’m guessing it takes time for that to come together in Mike D’Antoni’s offense. Paul is a world-class player and a huge addition for this team, but I think it will take some time to come together. I’d look to lay it with Golden State in the opener, despite the pregame banner-raising ceremony, which is a point of contention within the sports betting community. Some believe it hurts. Some believe it helps. It’s a team-by-team thing. The Warriors expected to win. This wasn’t a surprise. The banner raising is a formality.
Wednesday October 18
Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics – The Bucks enter the season as a distant third favorite to win the East. This is a good litmus test for them against a Boston team on a back-to-back after what will be an emotional game, win or lose, in Cleveland. The Bucks should be very live here in this spot I would think. They didn’t have a lot of roster turnaround in the offseason, so they are virtually the same team as last year with some better depth. They’re a play on team on Wednesday.
Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons – I think we see a little bit of urgency from both the Charlotte Hornets and the Detroit Pistons on opening night. We could also see a bad shooting night. For the first time in the regular season, the Pistons will play in the new Little Caesars Arena after playing at the Palace of Auburn Hills for the last several seasons. These are two teams that fell well short of expectations last year and a good start on erasing last year’s bad memories would be to go out and win the first one. Given the fanfare of a new building, the Pistons may be the side here, but this may be one to just watch for future reference.
Denver Nuggets at Utah Jazz – Playing on teams that lost a ton is a good idea early on in the season. The Utah Jazz lost their best offensive player in Gordon Hayward, so the market will look to go against them, especially against an upstart team in the Denver Nuggets. The Jazz are likely in a play on spot here on opening night. Teams that aren’t expected to contend enter the season with a chip on their shoulders and the Jazz are that team. It’s hard to see how they will score points, but they’re still going to be able to defend and we should see max effort on a regular basis as a result.
Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs – The Timberwolves have a lot of helium in the betting markets coming into this season. They did last season as well and finished well outside of the playoffs. This season, they open up with the San Antonio Spurs. This is one of those spots where a young team may put more pressure and emphasis on the opener…and then fall completely flat. Teams talk about wanting to see how they stack up. About wanting to measure up. That feels like the spot here for Minnesota, but they need to prove it first. I think the line will indicate that and the result could as well.
Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix Suns – Damian Lillard better be ready to go right from the opening tip because he’ll be missing his Robin in this one. CJ McCollum is suspended for leaving the bench during an altercation, so Portland’s second-best player will be sidelined against a Phoenix team eager to get the season going. Eric Bledsoe’s regular season return is a big storyline here, especially as the Suns look to build off of last year’s offensive success. It’s Suns or nothing here because if Lillard is off to start the year, Portland is going to struggle to score.
Thursday October 19
Los Angeles Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers – The Lakers are technically the home team as things get underway at the STAPLES Center with a Battle of Los Angeles. Life without Chris Paul begins for the Clippers. That is not easy. The point guard facilitates the offense and one as good as Paul is hard to replace. Patrick Beverley can play and the additions of Danilo Gallinari and Lou Williams are helpful, but I would think that it is going to take the Clippers some time to come together as a unit. The Lakers added some nice depth pieces over the summer and are a very, very talented, albeit young, ballclub. They’re going to make mistakes and get exposed, but I’d be surprised if a retooled Clippers team can do it this Thursday. I’d take the Lakers here.
New York Knicks at Oklahoma City Thunder – Sometimes the storylines just write themselves. Carmelo Anthony’s first game with the Thunder is against his old team. It’s hard to argue with the level of talent the Thunder has in the starting lineup, with the additions of Anthony and Paul George. This, however, is a spot where only having one ball in play could be a bit of a disaster. Russell Westbrook is such a high-usage player that he needs the rock. Carmelo wants the rock. Paul George needs to get his. That’s not to say that I want to back a rebuilt Knicks team in the opener after a horrendous preseason, but I’m not laying numbers with OKC right now and may not at all as the year goes along.
Friday October 20
Utah Jazz at Minnesota Timberwolves – These are games that Minnesota needs to win and win convincingly in order to take the next step. The Jazz are a motivated team to prove the naysayers wrong. The Timberwolves, on pure talent, are a top-10 team in the NBA. Spots like these are when they need to show it. This is a standalone road game for Utah with Oklahoma City on deck at home the next night. This will be a great test for Minnesota against a high-level defensive team. This is a game that isn’t one to bet, but it is one to watch in order to get an idea about some of these teams.
Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans – I’ll be very interested to see how Golden State handles Friday night’s spot. It is the home opener for the Pelicans, so there will be some excitement in the building. The Warriors play about the only team that can consistently hang with them in the Memphis Grizzlies on Saturday night in a back-to-back with travel. That is a game that commands all of Golden State’s focus. This is a team that has prided itself on rewriting the record books in the regular season, so I think we get a solid effort on Friday, but I’m not sure it will be enough to cover a big road number with such a huge game looming.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks – This is a little bit like the Wednesday night game for Milwaukee, except it comes at home. The Cavs are in such a precarious spot at the start of the year. LeBron James led the league in minutes played per game last season and that cannot happen again. With Isaiah Thomas out and some new bench guys, there are a lot of moving parts. The Bucks have continuity. They have stability. They have the chance to prove something here. I wonder how invested the Cavs are with a standalone road game coming off of the Boston game. We’ve seen the Cavs start slow before. This season, they have reasons to do just that. I wouldn’t lay a road number. It’s Bucks or bust for me.
Orlando Magic at Brooklyn Nets – Wins will probably be tough to come by for both the Magic and the Nets this season. The Nets might be a little bit farther along in their rebuilding process than Orlando. The Magic returned the majority of a bad team from last season. At least the Nets infused some talent with DeMarre Carroll and D’Angelo Russell. Does that help Orlando at the outset? To not have to wait around as players get used to playing with each other? It might. We’ll have to see what the price looks like to see how the market is evaluating these two teams.
Saturday October 21
Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies – For whatever reason, the Grizzlies might as well be the regular season arch-nemesis for the Golden State Warriors. Memphis catches Golden State on a back-to-back with reasonable travel from the Big Easy to the Land of Blues. The Grizzlies are basically the same bunch that they have always been with a few new depth pieces factored into the equation. The overriding sentiment here will probably be that Golden State is going to be out to prove a point, but that’s generally the sentiment and the point is rarely proven. On the other night, everybody knows that Memphis plays Golden State tight, so is that reflected in the line? If you choose to get involved, you have a lot to consider.
Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat – The host Heat are a good look for Saturday night against Indiana. Life without Paul George will be tough enough, but factor in travel from Indianapolis to Miami for an early-season back-to-back and the spot favors the home team. Miami will be waiting around for a couple of days to get back on the floor for their home opener in this one. Miami looks like the preferred side.
Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Clippers – The Clippers are probably the team that you need to keep the closest eye on here at the start of the season. The Clippers have gone through such a significant roster turnover. A visit from the young and hungry Suns should be a good test to see how far away they are. The Suns are not good defensively, but they can run the floor and be athletic. The Clippers need to control the pace, which may be tougher without Paul.
Sunday October 22
Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder – A big week of measuring stick games comes to a close for the Timberwolves on Sunday against the Thunder. A tough roadie against San Antonio led into a very winnable game to show if the Timberwolves can do what needs to be done to take that next step. On Sunday, they’ll draw the Thunder, who, as mentioned above, have a lot of new moving parts alongside Russ. This is a back-to-back off an altitude game in Utah, so that could give Minnesota a little bit of an opening to cover this number and possibly win outright. OKC is a fade team or a stay away team for me until I see how everything comes together.
Atlanta Hawks at Brooklyn Nets – The Hawks aren’t expected to be a very good team this season. By Sunday, we may have seen that come to fruition with road games against the Mavericks and Hornets. Brooklyn is able to ease into the season with a watered-down Pacers bunch, the Magic, this game, and then the Magic again on Tuesday. This may be a good spot to back the Nets. One of the biggest concerns about Atlanta is depth and that will be tested with four road games in six nights to open the season. This is Game 3 of that trip, with a division game on Monday against the Heat.