Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, April 26, 2018 from various handicappers and websites
Eastern Conference First Round - Game 6 - Celtics lead 3-2
Boston at Milwaukee (-4.5/200), TNT, 8:05 p.m. ET
If one could only guarantee that frustration gets channeled the right way, the Bucks would be the lock of the century in Thursday’s lone NBA playoff game. You can understand how even down 3-2 against the Celtics, seventh-seeded Milwaukee feels it is the better team in the series.
It lost Game 1 in overtime, blew a 20-point lead before surviving Game 4 and fell in Boston on Tuesday after getting hosed by a missed shot-clock violation that could’ve completely altered the next few possessions.
Mix in the fact that forward Giannis Antetokounmpo felt his Game 1 ejection in OT was unwarranted and clinched that loss, not to mention his lack of fourth-quarter involvement in Game 5 and you can surmise the Bucks will have their superstar leader engaged for this one.
Unless Milwaukee rallies in the series and wins the next two games, Thursday’s contest will be the final one at Bradley Center, home to the team since 1988. An emotionally charged atmosphere awaits the young Celtics, who are still looking for their first road win as they look to advance to an Eastern Conference semifinal series against Philadelphia where they will be an underdog despite opening the series at home as the highest-seeded team.
Boston knows it can’t look past the Bucks given how this series has unfolded. Without Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward available, the Celtics are utilizing a collective approach to try and make the most of finishing second in the Eastern Conference this season. Marcus Smart returned for Game 4 to help aid the cause, while second-year wing Jaylen Brown, rookie forward Jayson Tatum and third-year point guard Terry Rozier have joined veteran center Al Horford as the team’s driving forces with their two max players sidelined.
Brad Stevens has been up to the challenge of making the most of his remaining pieces, a talented group light on playoff experience. He’s outcoached counterpart Joe Prunty, who probably needs to pull this series out to hang on to the gig he inherited on an interim basis when Jason Kidd was let go on Jan. 22.
The latest tweak saw a commitment to a smaller look with rookie forward Semi Ojeleye replacing burly 6-foot-10 center Aron Baynes in the starting lineup. He was placed on “Greek Freak” duty and fared extremely well, resulting in Antetokounmpo finishing with a series-low 10 field goal attempts. Baynes played a series-high 30 minutes in the 116-92 Game 3 blowout loss the Celtics suffered after the action shifted to Milwaukee, so it’s not hard to take the leap that Stevens and his staff will stick with going small now that Ojeleye has proven with worth and Smart is back in the mix.
A standout defender whose grit and versatility makes him an asset even when he’s not playing well on offense, Smart logged 25 minutes in his first game since breaking his thumb on March 11. He shot 2-for-7 and turned it over five times in a rusty showing, but he blocked a game-high three shots.
It’s no coincidence that from an efficiency standpoint, Milwaukee’s Game 5 effort was by far its worst this postseason, not to mention its lowest-scoring. The Bucks had averaged 108.3 points over the first four games of this series, which all went over the posted total. After books adjusted after the first two contests, moving the total from 199.5 to 204-plus for Games 3 and 4, Smart’s return forced the number to close at 202.5 on Tuesday and has it right back around 200 for Game 6.
The Bucks have a number of guys they need to make sure get going in addition to Anteokounmpo, who is averaging 25.4 points, 8.8 rebounds and 7.0 assists in the series despite his Game 5 struggles. He’s shooting 60 percent from the field, so there’s a good chance he’ll be able to identify some counters for Ojeleye and Smart, the two new wrinkles he had to deal with on Tuesday.
Khris Middleton is averaging 25.0 points and shooting 57 percent from the field, which includes shooting 18-for-30 from 3-point range. Milwaukee can’t possibly ask for more from him from a consistency standpoint. He shot a series-worst 43 percent in Game 4, putting up a series-high 21 shots from the field, so you can expect he’ll also have some counters in place.
Center John Henson is likely to be sidelined once again due to a back issue that has kept him out of the last three contests after he played 37 minutes in the first two, so the Bucks will probably start Tyler Zeller once again before going small themselves. Jabari Parker has been the beneficiary of the extra minutes, averaging 16.7 points while shooting over 50 percent.
Betting on a team facing a must-win spot is always dicey and Chris David of VegasInsider.com is hesitant to lay the points with Milwaukee in Game 6.
“Outside of the blowout win in Game 3 at home, the Bucks haven’t performed well in the role of home favorites in the second-half of the season. Including that outcome, Milwaukee has gone 6-5 SU and more importantly 2-9 ATS,” said David, expanding on his position on the ‘dog. “If this line was shorter, I wouldn’t have as much issue with the Bucks but six points is a little too rich to lay and Boston has been a solid underdog this season and in the playoffs under Brad Stevens.”
The Bucks must get better play out of lead guards Eric Bledsoe and Malcolm Brogdon, who combined to shoot 6-for-20 in Game 5, squandering opportunities that where there to be had since most of Boston’s defensive focus was on Antetokounmpo and Middleton. The ability of Rozier and Shane Larkin to be productive in the series, actually winning the matchup at the point, has helped swing the series in Boston’s favorite. For Milwaukee to win its third game of the series as a favorite, Bledsoe and Brogdon must improve. The Bucks are 7-1 straight up (5-3 ATS) in their last eight games as a favorite.
“Boston has gone 7-11 this season when catching points and while that’s nothing to boast about, a 12-6 record at the betting counter in those games shows you that they don’t lay down,” added VI’s David. “In the postseason, the Celtics are 4-11 overall as road underdogs during Stevens’ tenure and again a profitable 9-6 ATS.”
It’s a certainty Boston will be in action at home on Saturday night. Whether the Bucks are out there for a Game 7 or lamenting plays that made the difference in their elimination as they watch the Celtics host Philly depends entirely on making the most out of their opportunities tonight.
By Tony Mejia
NBA playoffs
Thursday’s games
Celtics (3-2) @ Bucks
Home side won last seven series games; Celtics lost last three visits here, by 4-2-24 points, but they’re 3-1 vs spread in last four visits here. Six of last seven series games went over the total. Bledsoe was just 5-15 from floor in Game 5; Bucks need a 3rd scorer to compliment Middleton, Antetokounmpo- 5-15 ain’t good enough. Boston lost its last five road games, but they’re 12-5 vs spread in last 17 road games overall. Milwaukee won five of its last six home games; they’re 2-12 vs spread in last 14 games as a home favorite.
Preview: Celtics at Bucks
Gracenote
Apr 25, 2018
The home team has won each of the first five games of the first-round series between the Boston Celtics and the Milwaukee Bucks, a trend the Bucks hope to maintain when they host a do-or-die Game 6 on Thursday. The second-seeded Celtics took a 3-2 series lead with a 92-87 win at home Tuesday night, moving to within a victory of a second-round matchup with the Philadelphia 76ers.
Al Horford switched from power forward to center and led Boston with 22 points and 14 rebounds as the Celtics survived a sluggish affair to push seventh-seeded Milwaukee to the brink of elimination. "We needed to make an adjustment and do something," Horford told reporters of the lineup changes, which included the return from injury of guard Marcus Smart and a rare start for rookie forward Semi Ojeleye. "Coach (Brad Stevens) saw that and he went with his gut and that, and a combination of Marcus Smart, I think paid off for us tonight." The Bucks shot well over 50 percent from the floor in the previous three games before being held to 36.8 percent in Game 5, and superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo was limited to just 10 shot attempts. "It's on me. I had open shots, but they wasn't my shots," Antetokounmpo told the media. "I think my teammates did a great job finding me, but coming the next game, Game 6, I've got to be more aggressive and make more plays."
TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT, NBCS Boston, FS Wisconsin (Milwaukee)
ABOUT THE CELTICS: Smart, who was out since March 11 with a thumb injury, added an instant dose of defense and toughness that Boston lacked while allowing an average of 110 points in losing games 3 and 4. "You can look at stat sheets all you want; with Marcus it just doesn’t tell the story," Stevens told reporters. "It's his energy, it's his emotion, it's little plays that turn out to be game-changing plays. ... Those are huge plays. And we have other guys that are making them when he hasn't been here, but he makes them every night. He makes them every night that he plays." Horford is averaging 18.2 points on 54.5 percent shooting and 8.6 rebounds in the series.
ABOUT THE BUCKS: While Antetokounmpo vows to be more aggressive in Game 6, some of his teammates hailed him for doing other things to keep his team in it Tuesday night. "I felt like he had a great game tonight," Khris Middleton told reporters of Antetokounmpo, who had 10 rebounds and handed out nine assists, his best total in over two months. "He played more as a playmaker, which they wanted him to do, I guess. He's got to trust us and we've got to trust him. He's going to find ways to get his shot, get to the paint, or his midrange or threes or whatnot. When he sees everybody crowding in on him, he's got to trust us and trust the pass and that's what he did tonight." Middleton led the Bucks with 23 points but was 9-of-21 from the floor after shooting 40-for-65 through the first four games of the series.
BUZZER BEATERS
1. Bucks C John Henson (back) missed the last three games and remains day-to-day.
2. Celtics C Greg Monroe had a double-double in Game 3 but played five scoreless minutes in Game 4 and did not appear in Tuesday's win.
3. Boston is 99-for-130 from the foul line in the series, compared to 68-for-100 for Milwaukee.
PREDICTION: Bucks 108, Celtics 105
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ATS Trends
Boston
Celtics are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Central.
Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.
Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Celtics are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 1 days rest.
Celtics are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Celtics are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Celtics are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall.
Celtics are 41-18-2 ATS in their last 61 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Celtics are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 road games.
Milwaukee
Bucks are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games playing on 1 days rest.
Bucks are 15-32-4 ATS in their last 51 home games.
Bucks are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Bucks are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.
Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Bucks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Bucks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Conference Quarterfinals games.
OU Trends
Boston
Over is 6-0 in Celtics last 6 games following a straight up win.
Over is 8-1 in Celtics last 9 overall.
Over is 8-1 in Celtics last 9 vs. Eastern Conference.
Over is 6-1 in Celtics last 7 vs. NBA Central.
Over is 6-1-1 in Celtics last 8 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Over is 5-1 in Celtics last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
Over is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 road games.
Over is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games following a ATS win.
Over is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Over is 7-2-1 in Celtics last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Milwaukee
Over is 11-1 in Bucks last 12 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 11-1 in Bucks last 12 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Over is 8-1 in Bucks last 9 home games.
Over is 7-1 in Bucks last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 6-1 in Bucks last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Over is 14-3 in Bucks last 17 games playing on 1 days rest.
Over is 14-3 in Bucks last 17 vs. Eastern Conference.
Over is 4-1 in Bucks last 5 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Over is 20-6 in Bucks last 26 overall.
Under is 10-3 in Bucks last 13 Thursday games.
Over is 16-5 in Bucks last 21 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 6-2 in Bucks last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 5-2 in Bucks last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Head to Head
Celtics are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Milwaukee.
Celtics are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Milwaukee.
Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
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NBA(501) BOSTON @ (502) MILWAUKEE | 04/26/2018 - 8:05 PM
Play UNDER BOSTON on the first half total in Road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game
The record is 10 Overs and 32 Unders for the last two seasons (+21.00 units)
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NBA(501) BOSTON @ (502) MILWAUKEE | 04/26/2018 - 8:05 PM
Play UNDER BOSTON on the first half total in Road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game
The record is 10 Overs and 34 Unders for the last three seasons (+23.00 units)
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NBA
Long Sheet
Thursday, April 26
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BOSTON (58 - 29) at MILWAUKEE (46 - 41) - 4/26/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 52-31 ATS (+17.9 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) as an underdog this season.
BOSTON is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in road games this season.
BOSTON is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 31-19 ATS (+10.1 Units) against Central division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 28-17 ATS (+9.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 36-46 ATS (-14.6 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 38-51 ATS (-18.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) in home games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 14-24 ATS (-12.4 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
MILWAUKEE is 18-29 ATS (-13.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MILWAUKEE is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 11-5 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 10-6 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
11 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NBA
Thursday, April 26
Trend Report
Boston Celtics
Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Boston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Boston's last 9 games
Boston is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games on the road
Boston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games on the road
Boston is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston's last 7 games when playing Milwaukee
Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Boston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Milwaukee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 19 of Milwaukee's last 22 games
Milwaukee is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 7 games when playing Boston
Milwaukee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Boston
Milwaukee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games when playing at home against Boston