Dave Cokin Comp
Kings @ Pistons
Play: Kings +11
The Pistons lost their earlier meeting with the Kings, and the quick reaction is to expect big revenge. But that hasn't been the case for Detroit when in this scenario. The Pistons have actually been awful the last couple years in this setting, and they're a pretty amazing 0-8 vs. the number when facing a squad that topped them when they were road favorites in the prior meeting. The Kings are finally healthy and look to have enough value at the big number to justify a play.
JEFF BENTON
For Friday, we shift to the NBA and play the Hornets at home against Charlotte.
Big number to be laying here, especially considering that the Bobcats have been playing decent ball, going 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS in their last six, all as an underdog. However, tonight, they run up against arguably the most improved team in the NBA in the Hornets. New Orleans is 26-12 SU and 23-14-1 ATS on the season, including three straight impressive wins over the Heat (114-88) and Sonics (123-92) at home and the Rockets (87-82) on the road. And if you go back exactly a month to Dec. 19, New Orleans is on an 11-2 SU and ATS run, with nine of the 11 wins coming by double digits. Also, the straight-up winner covered the pointspread in all 13 of those contests.
Moreover, the Hornets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 against the Southeast Division and 5-1 ATS as a big chalk (laying 9 points or more).
As for the Bobcats, as good as they've been of late, well, it's still hard to ignore this stat: 2-12. That's their record on the road. How have they done against the spread in those 14 games Try 4-10 ATS
Finally, New Orleans already owns a blowout win over the Bobcats this season, rolling 99-85 in Charlotte as a 3'-point chalk on Dec. 28. In fact, the Hornets are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
Lay the price with confidence here.
(based on a 1 to a 10* Rating)
5* NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
MATT RIVERS
For Friday take the number with the 76ers.
Boston is obviously still the far superior team of these two but the Celtics have been far from flying high of late and I'll take my chances at this huge price back with a decent enough Philadelphia squad.
Boston shockingly lost both legs of that back-to-back with Washington after looking shoddy in the previous few games. They then did just finally beat Portland by 10 on Wednesday in a cover but the Blazers led and controlled the pace for a lot of it and if not for Ray Allen going off the Celtics, who had that ridiculous 30-3 start, would have once again fallen as the big time favorite. BTW Boston led by only four in the final 50 seconds.
Doc Rivers' squad is still either the best team in the East or the second best behind Detroit but these guys are not nearly as dominant as the first few months to the season showed and things are catching up to them a bit of late. As I like to say they are coming back down to Earth.
The 76ers have talent with Andre Iguodala, Andre Miller, Samuel Dalembert and a few others and earlier in the season at home led the C's by a ton at the break before imploding at the end in a push and a ten point defeat. These guys have the players to compete tonight and at this price I'm all about the pup!
COMPS
BIG AL Comp
Philadelphia 76ers +11 over Boston Celtics
TRACE ADAMS
Portland Trail Blazers
NICK JONES
Memphis Grizzlies -5.5
Bob Harvey Sports
Niagara vs Canisius
Niagara -12.5 (-105)
HDs ACTIONLINE
Toronto -6.5
BIG TIME SPORTS
SACRAMENTO / DETROIT UNDER 195
ARTHUR RALPH
Washington NBA
DARK HORSE
NBA - Miami +4.5 over Portland
Paul Leiner
10* play on the Blazers/Heat over 192
Burns
NHL Blowout------------Sabres
Feast-------------------Heat
Shootout----------------Over Heat/Blazers
Blue chip-----------------Under Raptors/Hawks
Brandon Lang
10 Dime: TRAIL BLAZERS
10 Dime: HORNETS
10 Dime: RAPTORS
Free Pick: KNICKS
Drew Gordon
1. 200,000* N.Y. Knicks
2. 50,000* Hawks
3. 50,000* Heat
1. N.Y. Knicks- The Knicks are playing their best basketball of the season right now, thanks in large part to the absence of Stephon Marbury, who's shoot-first mentality and overall selfishness was killing this team. Now with their roles defined and more than enough shots for everyone to go around, its no surprise than an otherwise talented team has started to win games. With 3 straight outright wins under their belt, I'm looking for them to continue their success tonight in Washington and here's why:
Clearly, oddsmakers aren't ready to jump aboard the Knicks bandwagon just yet, which means NOW is the time to get the best prices on this New York team. Their winning streak maybe short-lived depending on what happens before the trade deadline, but right now, this current Knicks unit can and will win games.
Not only has the absence of Marbury created some offensive oppurtunities for other players, but because everyone is "getting involved," the Knicks are actually starting to play defense (what a concept). Over their last 5 games they're allowing just 92 ppg on a solid 43% shooting. That's a huge improvement from their season average of 100 ppg on a laughable 47% shooting. Washington is scoring only 90 ppg on an ugly 39% shooting over their last 5 games... Just how in the hell do you expect them to cover the number against this resurgent Knicks defense when they're offense is struggling mightily!
Bottom line, Knicks may not win this game outright, but they sure as hell keep it close enough to cover. Washington will have trouble against a re-energized Knicks defense, while the 1-2 punch of Crawford and Randolph lead the way on the offensive end.
Take the N.Y. Knicks plus the points over the Wizards as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Hawks- While everyone is jumping all over this Toronto team, I'm not convinced. Its going to take more than a couple decent home wins for me to lay this many points with a flawed Raptors team tonight, and let me explain why:Of their 3 straight home wins, the only one that impresses me was their OT win over Portland. Toronto should beat team like the Kings and 76ers, so don't go giving them too much credit. Before those 3 home wins, they lost to Cleveland (bad road team), Detroit (blowout loss), and Boston (blowout loss)... Granted, the Hawks aren't as good as any of those 3 teams, but I believe the number accurately reflects that fact. In other words, I fully expect the Raptors to win this game, just not by enough to cover.
Match up-wise, Bosh has been on a tear, but matching up against a very ahtletic Hawks frontcourt will give him trouble. Note that Atlanta is allowing just 89 ppg on an outstanding 38% shooting over their last 5 games, thanks in large part to players like the ultra-athletic Josh Smith (7 blocks in loss at Milwaukee).
Offensively the Hawks have struggled on the road, but Toronto defense is far from impenetrable. Bargnani and Moon are both average defenders, while the Raptors backcourt will have their hands full with Joe Johnson. Johnson is coming off a sub-par effort against the Bucks (4 for 16 12 points) and will be looking to bounce back hard tonight.
Finally, let's examine the series, as the road team is a solid 9-3 ATS over their last 12 meetings. Not only do the Hawks have the defense to keep this game competitive, but several edges on the offensive end as well. In the end, the Raptors likely pull out the win, but its the Hawks that grab the cash.
Take the Hawks plus the points over the Raptors in this NBA match up.
3. Heat- I know you're scratching your head at this pick, but before you go completly dismissing this play, let me break it down for you first and then you'll see my point.
Look guys, there's no question this Heat team is struggling mightily, losers of 11 straight (1-10 ATS over that span), so let me ask you a question: Why if they're so bad, are the Heat only relatively slight underdogs against the hottest team in the NBA? Think about it, doesn't this line look a fishy to you? This is exactly how Vegas makes their money... Remember, if it looks to good to be true, it probably is!
So why now? Simple, Miami just got thoroughly embarassed by Chicago in front of their home fans 126-96 two days ago. This is a proud team, that has a now-healthy Shaq (24 points 10 boards against Bulls) and Dwayne Wade, one of the best players in the NBA, bar none. Look for them to lead the rallying cry in this game against a Portland team that doesn't have the size to stop Shaq or the backcourt defender (Roy is good, but not good enough defensively) to stop Wade.
Make no mistake, this is your typical "backs against the wall/us against the world" scenario that coach Riley loves use to motivate his team. Not to mention the fact, would it surprise you if Portland overlooks Miami when they've got a tough match up at Orlando the very next day?
Bottom line, small play on Miami in this one, as the oddsmakers are clearly begging the public to take the Blazers. Can't you just hear your uniformed buddy saying: "This game is a lock!" No it isn't, because oddsmakers know what they're doing and so do I.
Take the Heat plus the points over the Blazers in this NBA match up.
Michael Cannon
10 Dime –
HAWKS
Take the points with the Hawks tonight when they travel to take on the Raptors.
Atlanta is an athletic, confident team, which is why they’re hovering at .500 this late in the season for the first time since their last playoff year of 1999.
They own recent road wins over the Wizards, Magic, 76ers, Timberwolves and Heat.
The Hawks remain an undervalued team, but as long as Joe Johnson stays healthy, and Josh Smith and Marvin Williams continue to live up to expectations, they should continue to provide solid value for their backers.
The road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings between these two.
Take the points with the Hawks as they stay within the number.
5 Dime –
KINGS
Take the points with the Kings tonight when they take on the Pistons at Detroit.
The Kings are missing some of their best players, but are covering generous point spreads. Role players are being elevated to starters, but efforts from Francisco Garcia, Beno Udrih, Mikki Moore and John Salmons have been good.
Sacramento is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road games.
Detroit has a revenge game on tap against Chicago, who upset the Pistons last month, 98-91. So their full concentration may not be there for this easy-to-overlook opponent.
Take the points with the Kings as they keep this one within the number.
Red Dog Sports
4* Pistons Over
Mr.A's
Atlanta at Toronto, 7:00 PM Toronto Raptors -6½
Portland at Miami, 7:00 PM Portland Trail Blazers -4½
Minnesota at Phoenix, 9:00 PM Phoenix Suns -14
WINNERS EDGE
Atlanta Hawks/Toronto Raptors over 186 , 2 units
La Clippers/ Utah Jazz Over 197.5 , 2 units
Portland Trail Blazers - 4.5 , 5 units (Game of the Month)
Bobby Bo
5* Washington -7.5
3* Atlanta / Toronto over 187
1* Free Play Seattle / Memphis over 215
Jeff Bonds
NHL Money Line
triple-dime bet MIN -135 vs ANA
Analysis
The Minnesota Wild have outscored the Anaheim Ducks 7-2 in their two meetings this season and the Ducks are a dismal 1-6 in the last seven meetings. The home team is also a dominating 16-5-1 in the last 22 meetings.
The Ducks are also 0-4 this year in the second game of a back-to-back situation - being outscored 8-16 in the process.
The Wild pick up the home victory tonight.
King Creole
NYK 7.5 vs WAS
Analysis: NEW YORK KNICKS plus the points vs the washington wizards
These two teams played each other on Tuesday and we were ON the Knicks as a 2** Play. They beat the Wiz at home as 'short' dogs.... and we'll jump on em on more time on Friday night. Current 2007/2008 season tendencies indicate that the points are the play.
So far this season, NBA Conference UNDERDOGS playing off BB SU wins... with the last one a DOUBLE DIGIT ATS win (a 'cover' by 10 or more points) have gone 20-8 ATS so far. That's the 'play on' situation for New York tonight.... who has actually won 3 STRAIGHT games in a row. They beat the New Jersey Nets on the road Wednesday night 111-105 as dogs of +7.5 points. So they DID win the game by +13.5 points factoring in the line. A 20-8 ATS record is pretty good (71%) but we can do better. If we bring in a favored opponent playing off a SU ATS loss (like the Wizards), the results for our Underdog improve to 6-1 ATS. And if that opponent lost their last game by 10 or more points (double digits), the results improve to a PERFECT 4-0 ATS. So that the case for the Knicks tonight. We don't play on 'em very often.... but tonight is as very good situation. They're playing with confidence (3-0 SUATS last 3).... against an opponent that they have had success against (3-0 L3 / 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings) in the past.
Here's the clincher: So far this season, NBA teams playing on FRIDAYS off a SU road favorite loss (Wizards) are a PERFECT 0-5 ATS when taking on teams with a current W/L percentage of .334 or less. With a record of 12-26 SU, the Knicks also qualify in this PERFECT System.
Rocky Atkinson
MIA 4.5 vs POR
Analysis:
Portland is allowing 99.9 points per game on the road this year. Miami is 4-1 SU and ATS overall vs Portland last 3 years. Trail Blazers are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5. Heat are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5. Heat are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 vs. Western Conference. Heat are 10-4-3 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Heat are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog. Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings. We'll play Miami for 3 units tonight!