Wunderdog
Game: Siena at Niagara
Pick: Game Total UNDER 156.5 -110
Niagara is coming off a 96-point performance while Siena is off a 52-point game.
What gives here? We like this game to come in UNDER the lofty total. Niagara has
the propensity to be an up-and-down team. Six times already this season they
have shot in the 30% range from the floor. Overall they are 7-4 UNDER while Siena is 8-4 UNDER. Both teams are 4-1 UNDER their last five games. Siena is allowing just 61.5 ppints per game to conference foes. We like this one to come in under this high posted total.
Sports Marketplace – NBA Edition
NBA Sports Marketwatch 1/11/07 – Games to Watch
Washington Wizards vs. Atlanta Hawks
One sportsbook we spoke to says that “sharp” money on Washington moved the line fairly early from Atlanta -3.5 to -3 and then to -2.5. There is still a “3” at SportsInteraction, which we would grab.
SportsInsights betting statistics verify this observation. With only 33% of the bets on Washington, the line moved in the opposite direction than we would have expected. This is a big divisional match-up, pitting two teams against one another that are only a-half-game apart from one another in the standings. This should be a barn-burner of a game that goes to the wire, so we love taking Washington plus the points.
Washington Wizards +3
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Houston Rockets
After a slow start, Houston has won four games in a row and seven of their last ten. Minnesota, on the other hand, continues with its worst record in the NBA. Still, the point spread is a huge equalizer and the Timberwolves are looking like a good value at this point. Indeed, Minnesota won its last game outright – its first win, in about two weeks. Even though the win was against a weak Miami team, Minny looked good.
Some “smart money” is on Minnesota in tonight’s matchup. The line opened at Houston -11.5, but with the bets coming in heavily (almost 70%) on Houston, the line actually declined to Houston -10.5. Take the double digit points and sell the Rockets at a recent “high.” There’s still Minny +11 at SportsInteraction.
Minnesota Timberwolves +11
Seattle Supersonics vs. Dallas Mavericks
The public loves the first-place Mavericks over the lowly Supersonics in this matchup. Dallas is currently receiving almost 80% of the bets placed in this game. To the casual observer, this makes sense. Who would want to back a lowly team with a 9-26 record vs. a first place team with a 24-11 record?
Dallas is coming off of a huge win against first-place Detroit and has won five in a row. On the other hand, Seattle has lost five in a row. In this matchup, our readers are familiar with our “contrarian goal” of seeking out value: we’ll buy Seattle at a “low” and sell Dallas at a “high.”
Seattle has been a “live dog” for much of the season, with its recent slide bringing its record “against the spread” (ATS) below 50%. Even with its recent run, Seattle’s record ATS remains below 50%. The high percentage of public bets on Dallas has already given us 1 pt of additional value. We’ll take the 9 points for Seattle at home.
Seattle Supersonics +9
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for the NBA.
Games to Watch (1-1-0)
Washington Wizards +3
Minnesota Timberwolves +11
Seattle Supersonics +9
Purelock
Philly Minus Points
New Orleans Minus Points
Mike Lineback
4* Atlanta Hawks Spread -2.5 for Game -110
Washington are struggling against quality competition w/out Arenas in lineup. Atlanta have talent, are healthy again and deep off the bench. In addition, they play defense, unlike their counterparts and will give Wash. problems in the post. Hawks won last meeting w/ Arenas on the court. Plus, Atlanta coming off a confidence boosting win over Cleveland who are more formidable with Hughes, Gibson & Verajao back in rotation. Like the home team laying a small number.
Play on ATLANTA
Indian Cowboy:
Lakers -12.5 (POD)
This is a revenge game. Do you remember when the Lake show went to Milawukee after some great results and the Bucks shocked everyone by winning outright? The Bucks got up for that game, and although they have actually won a couple ballgames lately, this is a dangerous game as the Bucks struggle against teams that score with ease - such as the Lakers. The Lakers have won 8 of 9 ballgames straight up - and something interesting about the Lakers, is that when they win, they also cover ballgames as well. Of those 8 of 9 ballgames they won, they have covered 7 of those 9 ballgames. The Lakers beat Phoenix, Utah and covered big spreads recently against the Sixers and Pacers winning basically by scoring more than 110 and holding the opponent to under 98 points. The Bucks have won 4 of 5 ballgames mind you, but Michael Redd will not start this game. With the Lakers have revenge as well, I wouldn't be surprised if they won this ballgame by 20+ today - after all, they beat New Orleans by 29 on the road and the Sixers by 31 on the road. The Sixers and Bucks are models of each other in scoring and I have this game as a blowout according to my math models.
Dartmouth +3
I was speaking of an ugly card earlier, and this picks might be as ugly as it gets next to taking a 8-6 Siena team on the roda, but I do like the Big Green at home today to make an upset over Harvard. Harvard is 0-8 on the road and to have this team favored simply because their name carries more weight in the past in college basketball - doesn't reflect that this team is vulnerable this year as they are outside the top 225 in the power rankings and they facea Dartmouth team that is better at home as they are 3-1 and even beat a top 200 Colgate team at home. Dartmouth comes off a terrible and disgusting loss on the road recently to Harvard where they lost by 26 on the road (56-82) - so that means Harvard spanks them again tonight right? Not necessarily. I do think that Dartmouth has considerable revenge and Dartmouth did beat a better ranked Vermont team as well. Once again, I believe in numbers and I believe in my power rankings as it has worked for me the years that I have used it and Harvard is ranked outside the top 300 on the road - they are simply a different team on the road, having lost to 3 teams outside the top 200 on the road already this year. I will take the splits advantage here as Harvard did lose to Sacred Heart, Leight and Boston - all teams outside the top 250 essentially on the road. Remember, Dartmouth is around the top 225 when they play at home. Crimson are 1-4 ATS on the road and the Mean Green are 4-1 ATS following a straight up loss.
Siena +4
This is an ugly play, as is my card for today as it is full of "unsexy" picks. However, I think the Saints shock quite a lot of people tonight. These 2 met last year in what was probably one of the best games that the Metro Atlantic Conference saw last year in which Niagara continued their ridiuclous winning streak and went on the orad to beat Siena. In fact, the line closed at a pick-em because I tracked that line specifically as it was a game that created a great deal of interest in vegas. Although Niagara is a dominant team this year - yes, Niagara is very good this year as they are a top 70 school and won about 5 games in a row I believe, not to mention at a Big East school in St. Johns and Santa Clara who is a top 150 school - here is the catch, their key contributor is likely out for this game and considering he pops 13 points a game, this is a key difference. Franklin for Siena will play and that is a boost for this team as he scores 15 points as it was uncertain if he was going to play or not. Siena also comes off a tough loss at home to Fairfield, and I think they bounce-back well as I believe they were looking past Fairfield (fairfield had revenge from earlier in the season as well) - but looking past Fairfield for this game against Niagara in this revenge game from last year. I wouldn't be surprised if Siena shocks quite a lot of people out there and wins this game outright. Sure, I could be wrong, but the Saints are 22-5 ATS after a straight up loss and 5-1 ATS as small road underdogs.