Free Picks for Saturday, March 25th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
RANGERS VS. KINGS
PLAY:RANGERS +115
Nice win by the desperate Kings on Thursday night. But I’m not reading much into it as Winnipeg’s two biggest season long issues were in evidence throughout the game. The Jets are very undisciplined and take way too many penalties and their goaltending is terrible. Los Angeles exploited both vulnerabilities and got the two points.
Tonight the Kings step up in class as they host the Rangers. New York is off two straight losses, but they have only lost three in a row once all season. Anti Raanta will get the start in goal in this game, with Henrik Lunqvist slated to return next game, but I have no problem with Raanta in the cage.
The Kings are in must win mode but aside from the win against the Jets, that hasn’t exactly been a plus for them down the stretch. It’s a bigger game for the home team to be sure, but I really can’t see the Kings being favored over NY at this point, and off two losses I will back the Rangers at a plus price.
Bruce Marshall
Jazz / Clippers Under 203.5
There is some concern in Utah that neither Derrick Favors nor Rodney Hood will be able shake the knee injuries that have plagued them all season in Favors' case, and for the past two months in Hood's. The Jazz are 10-7 in their past 17 games as they try to cling to the West's No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Clips are in line for a bounce-back effort after a loss at Dallas on Thursday. Two of the first three meetings this season have been played at an extremely slow tempo, however, and Utah's pace is the slowest in the league. These teams will have trouble clearing 203 1/2 at Staples Center this afternoon.
Scott Rickenbach
Wolves vs. Blazers
Play: Wolves +7
Of course with Minny off of an OT loss last night and then having to travel to Portland for this game, the whole world will likely line up on the Trail Blazers here. However, keep in mind, the Timberwolves had 2 days off before facing Los Angeles and they have 2 days off after facing Portland. The point is that they've still got some energy in the tank and they've got no reason to be worried about expending it either as they don't play again until Tuesday. While the Blazers are playing with the pressure of still having a shot a playoff spot the T-wolves have no such pressure and can play loose and relaxed in this game. The points being offered here are significant for two reasons. One is that the road team has covered each of the last four meetings between these teams. The other is the fact that all 4 of those games were decided by 6 points or less! The Timberwolves are 4-2 ATS their last 6 back to back situations and one of the two ATS losses was a game decided by 7 points. Look for the T-wolves to keep this one much closer than many are expecting as Portland drops to 5-8 ATS this season when off of a win by 10 points or more.
Ray Monohan
Wolves vs. Blazers
Play: Blazers -7
This play just missed out on our premium card. After Minnesota collapsed last night in Los Angeles, things are going to be extremely tough on them here in Portland on Saturday.
Minnesota blew an 8 point lead with just 2 minutes to play, as this team just isn't playing with much confidence at the moment.
However, on the other side of things, the Trail Blazers certainly are playing with a lot of momentum. Portland enters play 9-3 in the month of March, as they are heating up at the right time.
Some trends to note. Trail Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference. Trail Blazers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 Saturday games.
This is a worth a shot here on Portland. Minnesota comes in on a low note and with how well Portland is playing, they should blow the doors off Minnesota.
Brandon Lee
Wolves vs. Blazers
Play: Blazers -7
Portland is worth a look here at home against the Timberwolves. This is a brutal spot for Minnesota, who is clearly having trouble closing out the season strong. The Timberwolves have lost 5 straight and will be playing on no rest after a crushing overtime loss at the Lakers last night. Five different players for Minnesota logged 35 or more minutes with their big three of Rubio, Towns and Wiggins all eclipsing 40 minutes. There's just no incentive here for the Wolves to play hard in this situation. Portland on the other hand is just 1.5 games back of the Nuggets for the 8th and final playoff spot in the west. They know they can't afford to lose this game and I look for them to turn this into a blowout early.
Jim Feist
Raptors vs. Mavs
Play: Mavs Pk
It's a long road trip for Toronto, and the Raptors are 2-6 ATS after a victory, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Dallas is terrific on defense and Mavericks are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 home games. And the Mavericks are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Rob Vinciletti
St. Peter's vs. Texas State
Play: St. Peter's Pk
The Peacocks are ranked 10th in the country and are 9-4 vs teams ranked 100 to 200 in the RPI Scale. They have played a much tougher schedule than Texas St who is 4-8 vs teams ranked 100 to 200 in the RPI Scale. Texas Sr is 1-10 vs teams who allow 65 or less and 1-10 as a pick or home dog. State has lost 3 of 4 at home if the total is less than 120. St. Peters is 13-1 ats in lined road games and 11-2 after allowing 60 or less and are 4-1 with 7+ days rest.
Jimmy Boyd
Raptors vs. Mavs
Play: Mavs -1
I really like the value here with Dallas at basically a pick'em at home against the Raptors. I was on the Mavericks in their 97-95 home win over the Clippers last time out as a 5.5-point dog and while they are favored I still think they aren't getting enough respect. Toronto has been playing better of late and come in having won 4 straight, but I look for them to come out flat in their second straight game on the road.
Dallas will have a little extra motivation here, as they were just embarrassed by 22-points in a loss at Toronto on 3/13. The Mavericks are a much better team at home and have covered the spread in 15 of their last 19 home games. Toronto is just 11-23 ATS in their last 34 after 4 or more straight wins, while Mavs are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 when revenging a same season loss.
Art Aronson
Xavier vs. Gonzaga
Play: Gonzaga -8
Gonzaga looks to punch its ticket to the Final Four and make it to the Championship game for the first time in school history. The Bulldogs haven’t been steam-rolling opponents like many predicted that they would, but they’ve been methodical in their attack and their defense has been “on point.” Xavier looks poised for a letdown here though after its big upset of Arizona in the Sweet 16, somehow managing a way to victory despite losing the rebounding battle 35-27 and missing 5 of its 16 free throw attempts. Gonzaga held WVU to just 26.7 percent from the floor and only 5 of 23 from range. Nigel Williams-Goss also had an “off” night, finishing with only ten points and seven boards (normally averages 16.8 and 5.8 respectively). Suffice it to say, we’re expecting Goss and the BULLDOGS to get back on track offensively, to continue their dominant defensive play and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Consider laying the points in this one.
RJ Robbins
Utah vs. Los Angeles
Play: Under 202.5
The up & down Clippers host the Jazz in a afternoon match up in LA-LA Land. The Clippers lost at Dallas on Thursday 97-95. The Clippers are looking to evening the score with the Jazz who defeated them back on March 13, 114-108. These two teams are a combined 12-4 Under the last 8 games Utah has been a dog 2-6 under while the last 8 games LA has been a favorite 2-6 under! The last 4 games between these two teams has seen an average of 187 points scored!
Cajun Sports
Toronto vs. Dallas
Play: Toronto +1
The Toronto Raptors hit the road to take on the Dallas Mavericks Saturday night in Big D. Back on March 13, the Raptors beat the Mavericks 100 to 78. DeMar DeRozan led the Raptors with 25 points and six rebounds. This matchup features two Top Ten defensive teams with the Mavericks ranked fourth in defense in the league allowing an average of 100.3 points per game while the Raptors are ranked seventh allowing 103.1 points per game. The Mavericks are led by Harrison Barnes who averages 19.6 points per game and 5.1 rebounds. Toronto is led by DeRozan who is fifth in the league in scoring averaging 27.2 points per game. Toronto defeated the Miami Heat Thursday 101 to 84 and the Mavericks were in action on Thursday night also taking on the LA Clippers and defeating them 97 to 95. The Clippers had an opportunity for the victory with J.J. Redick missing a trey at the buzzer which would have of course won the game. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 3.98 points. The BMM has a point differential of 4.61 points against the current line range of +1.0 to -2.5 points. The SIM Matrix has the Toronto Raptors with a 70.06 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in tonights contest. Dallas is coming off a SU win and they are now involved in a game with a line range of Pk to -2.5 and they are 10-27 ATS their next trip to the hardwood. They also won ATS and they are 9-20 ATS in this situation their next trip to the hardwood. With Toronto coming off a SU and ATS win while going Under in their last game and now face a non-conference foe on the road they are 30-15-2 ATS. We are going to back the Raptors on Saturday night.
Marc Lawrence
Utah vs Los Angeles
Pick: Los Angeles
Edges - Clippers: 4-1 ATS last five games in this series… Jazz: 2-11 ATS with two days of rest against foe with one day of rest… With The Clippers off a loss and playing with same season loss revenge, we recommend a 1* play on the L.A. Clippers.
Ben Burns
Columbus -179
Off back-to-back losses, the Jackets are going to be highly motivated this afternoon. This marks the seventh time this season that the Jackets have lost two in a row. In all six previous cases, they won their next games. While the Flyers are 12-19 (-6.2) against teams with a winning record, the Jackets are 26-13 (+8.8 ) against losing teams. Including a 2-0 mark against Philadelphia, the Jackets are 17-8 (+8 ) against divisional opponents. On the other hand, the Flyers are 8-14 (-6.7) against divisional foes. The Flyers are 13-24 (-9.2) on the road. The Jackets are 26-11 (+9.5) at home. All things considered, the price could easily be even higher.
Bruce Marshall
St. Peter's vs Texas St
Pick: Under
Defensive purists will love this matchup between two of the top stop-end teams in the country. St. Peter's is certainly well-rested after a nine-day CIT-only break, but the Peacocks play at a slow pace and not sure how many touches the Bobcats' top weapons Nijal Pearson and Kavin Gilder-Tilbury will get with a chance to do damage. Can certainly envision these teams playing a game in the 50s at San Marcos.