Brandon Lee
Giants vs. Cardinals
Play: Under 8½
I think we are getting a great price and number on the UNDER in tonight's game between the Giants and Cardinals. St Louis doesn't hit left-handed pitching well and are scoring just 3.7 runs/game and hitting a mere .220 as a team against left-handed starters this season. San Francisco's Matt Moore is part of the high total here, as he's 2-4 with a 5.68 ERA in 8 starts, but he's coming off a great start last time out, allowing just 1 run over 7 1/3 innings against the Reds. On the flip side of this we got Michael Wacha on the mound for the Cardinals and he's been on point at home, where he's 2-0 with a 2.92 ERA in 4 starts. Wacha also owns a 1.88 ERA over 4 career starts against the Giants.
Jimmy Boyd
Rockies vs. Reds
Play: Reds -110
Cincinnati is coming off a 3-game series in Chicago, where they were they got swept and ended up their road trip on a 6-game losing streak. Now the Reds return home where they have won 6 of their last 7 and I look for them to the opener here against the Rockies.
The offense wasn't the problem in Chicago, as Cincinnati scored 15 runs (5 in each game) and they shouldn't have much trouble keeping the offense going there against Colorado starter Tyler Anderson, who is 2-4 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.476 WHIP in 8 starts overall and 1-2 with a 7.78 ERA and 1.627 WHIP in 4 road starts. Reds counter with Lisalverto Bonilla, who will be making his second start of 2017. He threw 8 solid innings at San Francisco in his first outing and I like his chances here against a Rockies team that is scoring just 3.9 runs/game on the road.
Art Aronson
Predators vs. Ducks
Play: Over 5
This has been a very even series and it enters Game 5 all knotted up at two games apiece. Every game has been decided by a single goal except for the Ducks’ 5-3 win in Game 2. Two have gone to overtime. So far the O/U is 1-1-2. We think the overall situation lends itself to a higher-scoring affair in Game 5 though. The Predators looked pretty inept for most of Game 4 except for the final eight minutes. Clearly they’ll be out to set the tone early tonight. The Ducks haven’t been great defensively in the playoffs, but they’ve been exceptional on the offensive end, ranked No. 1 overall. Also note that Nashville has seen the total go OVER the number in 11 of 16 this year in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while Anaheim has seen the total go OVER the number in 14 of 24 home games when the total is set at 5 or less. We’re recommending a play on the OVER in Game 5, but what do you think? Shootout or goaltenders battle?
Darryl Tucholski
Angels vs. Mets
Play: Over 7½
Ricky Nolasco is no stranger to the NL, if you recall he's spent 9 years of his career getting battered to the tune of a high 4 ERA. The sharps are banking on Degrom holding the Angels down, but with Trout on fire (homeruns in 4 of his last 5 games) I wouldn't worry. This game may hit 10 runs.
Handicappers Hub
Penguins vs. Senators
Play: Senators -104
The Ottawa Senators have completely dominated this entire series and ever since Crosby left with the concussion the Pens offense hasn't been the same. The high octane Pittsburgh Penguins have only scored 1 goal per game in this series and you have to give a lot of credit to this suffocating Sens defense but also need to wonder what is wrong with Crosby and that Pens offense.
Look for more of the same tonight as the Sens smell blood in the water and I love them to shut down the Penguins again and win this game to take a huge 3-1 lead in this series.
Dennis Macklin
Diamondbacks vs. Padres
Play: Diamondbacks -140
The DBacks are 6-2 L8 and fresh off a three-game home sweep of the Mets. The Snakes gave up a lot to get Taijuan Walker who has been steady to this point at 3-3 with a 3.91 ERA. He's done his best work on the road at 3.10 and rocks a 1.80 ERA in three lifetime starts against the Friars. You almost have to fade Jared Weaver in the blind at this point as he is the very definition of a spent bullet. He's 0-4 this year with 6.05 ERA and he has never had success against the DBack, even in his prime with the Angels way back when. 40 cents is fair price on the road.
Power Sports
Boston vs. Oakland
Pick: Boston
The Red Sox don't lose to the A's often (just three times since the start of '15), but it happened last night w/ a surprising 8-3 setback at O.co Coliseum. Look for "normalcy" to be restored this evening though w/ Chris Sale on the bump. Sale has been everything Boston could have hoped for as he comes into this start w/ a 2.15 ERA and 0.767 WHIP in his eight starts. He's posted double digit strikeouts in seven straight starts.
Sale's WHIP is easily baseball's best right now. So is an 85-13 KW ratio. Throw in the fact that Boston is 13-5 off a loss and a bounce back from last night seems very high. If he were to strike out 10+ batters tonight, then he would tie a MLB record for most consecutive starts doing so. He's generally dominated Oakland in his career w/ a 2.70 ERA in 12 starts.
Before winning yday, the A's had dropped five of six. Granted, all were on the road, but home field advantage is virtually non-existent in this park. Over the L3 seasons, the team is just 80-102 at home and very few fans are coming to the games these days. Kendall Graveman is simply not the answer opposite Sale as he has a 6.35 ERA and 1.588 WHIP his L3 outings.
Will Rogers
Pittsburgh vs. Ottawa
Pick: Ottawa
The Pittsburgh Penguins' high-octane offense averaged an NHL-best 3.39 goals per game in the regular season but in three games against Ottawa, the Penguins have scored just one goal in each game of this series. Kessel's third-period goal in Game 2 was enough to win but when Crosby scored for the Pens in Game 3, Ottawa already led 5-0. Game 4 of this series is clearly a pivotal one for the defending champs, as coming back from a 3-1 deficit may be too much to ask of a Pittsburgh team struggling on offense and decimated by injuries on the blue line. Adding more drama to the occasion, Pittsburgh head coach Mike Sullivan told reporters he'd reveal what he hopes to be his ace in the hole on Friday morning, with the disclosure of whether franchise goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury or rookie Matt Murray will get the start in net!
Pittsburgh: Fleury had been nothing short of brilliant while stepping in for an injured Murray (lower body), lifting the Penguins past Columbus and Washington and stopping 56 of 58 shots versus Ottawa in the first two games before getting shredded for four goals on nine shots in the first period of a Wednesday's 5-1 loss. The roles are somewhat reversed from last season when the 22-year-old Murray took over for a concussed Fleury and guided Pittsburgh to its fourth Stanley Cup title in franchise history. That aside, the Penguins still have their offensive woes to deal with. Those haven't just begun this series, as they come into this contest having mustered just nine tallies in their last six games, which follows them having scored 35 goals in their first nine of the playoffs.
Ottawa: Head coach Guy Boucher offered his own take on the Penguins' netminding situation. "I don't care," Boucher said, according to the Ottawa Sun. "Whether it's (Fleury) or another goalie, it doesn't matter." Ottawa's 1-3-1 system is largely responsible for flustering Pittsburgh but the team's offensive 'explosion' (four, first-period goals) was a welcome sight in Game 3. Ottawa's offense was almost non-existent in Game 2, as the Senators failed to record a shot on goal for 18:53 bridging the second and third periods! Five different players scored in Wednesday's win with Ryan adding two assists (giving him five goals and eight assists) to close within one point of Karlsson's team-leading 14 points (two goals / 12 assists) this postseason.
The pick: Penguins head coach Mike Sullivan has chosen to keep everyone guessing as to the identity of his starting goalie on Friday and is that really a "winning strategy?" Time will tell. I do see the defending champs coming out strong, as a team with the firepower of Malkin (6 G / 14 A), Kessel ( 6 G / 9 A), Crosby (5 G / 10 A) and Guentzel (9 G / 5 A) is unlikely to be held to just one goal again. However, the goalie situation could turn into a 'nightmare' plus regardless of which player is in goal, the injury-riddled Pittsburgh blue line remains a real problem. Expect Ottawa to take a 3-1 lead in the series with a win.
Dave Cokin
Washington vs. Atlanta
Pick: Over 9
The Braves are really going to miss Freddie Freeman. He was legitimately as valuable to his team through the first month and change as anyone in baseball. But Atlanta will still score its runs in this ballpark, at least when facing guys who can get hit. That's the case tonight as Gio Gonzalez has some red flag numbers that foretell a regression is on the way. On the surface, 3-1, 2.47 looks great. But his walk rate is clearly up and his fly ball rate is the highest since his rookie year. The former is troubling because Gio doesn't throw hard anymore. The latter is a red flag in a ballpark like this one, where the ball carries extremely well. As for Dickey, he's getting by but I think this park is bad news for him as well. His BB rate is up, K rate is down and Dickey has already given up seven homers in only 25 innings in the new stadium. Neither of these teams has an especially good bullpen. In fact, the Nats pen is pretty awful right now. I see the offenses with the edge tonight and will play this game Over.
Larry Ness
Toronto vs. Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore
The Baltimore Orioles open a three-game series at Camden Yards on Friday vs the Toronto Blue Jays. The Orioles can hardly be happy about about losing six of seven during their just completed, rain-shortened road trip but manager Buck Showalter's team should be confident having outscored the Jays 26-14 while winning five of six meetings this season with their AL East rivals. Baltimore (23-16) has slipped behind the first-place New York Yankees (24-14)) in the American League East.
Meanwhile, Toronto has shown signs of making a move out of the division's basement, after opening the season 2-11. The Blue Jays have won six of their last nine, after Thursday's 9-0 rout in Atlanta and are now 18-24 on the season. Jose Bautista is starting to heat up after an ice-cold start to the season with eight hits in the series against the Braves and four HRs, 12 RBI and 11 runs scored in his last nine games.
The pitching matchup on Friday features Toronto's Aaron Sanchez (0-1, 2.95 ERA) against Baltimore's Chris Tillman (1-0, 2.89 ERA). Sanchez has already had two stints on the DL in 2017 but looked good in his first start back last Sunday at Seattle. He allowed just one unearned run on five hits over five innings of a no-decision in the Mariners' 3-2 win. However, he didn't fare well in his lone start against the Orioles in 2017, permitting five runs on seven hits (including three HRs) over 5.1 innings of a 6-4 loss back on April 14. Sanchez is 5-3 in nine career starts against Baltimore (Jays are 5-4) but owns a 4.71 ERA and has allowed 11 HRs and 32 walks in 56.1 innings (not good!).
Tillman needed 105 pitches (with only 61 for strikes) to get through just 4.1 innings at Kansas City on Saturday, avoiding a loss after allowing three runs on eight hits. "Command has been a challenge for him," Showalter said of the 29-year-old Tillman. "He feels good health-wise, so that's a good sign." Tillman will make just his third start of 2017 here (debut was delayed until May 7 due to injury) and may have an uphill battle vs Toronto, as he owns a 5-10 career mark with a 5.44 ERA in 25 career starts against them (teams are 10-15) while surrendering 29 HRs in 137.1 innings.
I don't trust either pitcher, as neither has worked much in 2017. However, the Orioles have 'owned' the Jays in 2017 (5-1) and are at home, where they are 13-3 on the season, giving them MLB's best home moneyline mark at plus-$986. Good enough for me.
Matt Fargo
Los Angeles at New York
Pick: Los Angeles
The Mets are coming off a winless roadtrip as they dropped all six games and have now lost seven straight overall. A trip home with one of their top pitchers on the mound will put a lot of bettors behind New York tonight but this team is in a bad place right now with injuries and overall ineffectiveness at several positions. The pitching has allowed at least five runs in all seven of those losses, giving up an average of 7.4 rpg while the offense has managed more than four runs only twice. The Mets are 3-13 in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. The Angels are coming off a successful homestand where they went 5-2 and while they have not been good on the road, they are playing well right now and bring in some good momentum into New York. Jacob deGrom takes the hill for the Mets and while he has been pretty solid, he has been pretty inconsistent. He has a 4.07 ERA and 1.36 WHIP which at this point are both career highs and he has struggled over his last three starts with a 6.35 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. The Mets are 1-5 in his last 6 starts against teams with a winning record. The Angels give the ball to Ricky Nolasco who has been pretty solid this season with just two bad outings in his eight starts. He has allowed three runs or less in six starts
Alex Smart
Cavs at Celtics
Play: Cavs -5
The Cleveland Cavaliers owned game 1 of their Eastern Conference series with the Boston Celtics. That was the case during the regular season, as the won 4 of 5 meetings, and now I expect nothing to change in game 2. The Cavs are still fresh, after taking out the Raptors easily in their last series, and very dangerous. With a banged Boston squad that just recently finished playing an exhausting 7 game series, against the Wizards and now running on fumes, they look like fade material once again. CLEVELAND is 35-18 ATS L/53 when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days dating back to last season, with a combined average win coming by 8.8 ppg. Cavaliers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win. Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Boston.
Bryan Leonard
Cleveland at Boston
Play: Over 218
In game one the Cavaliers played it's best first half of defense we have seen over the past several months. We expect Boston to make the needed offensive adjustments. Neither Thomas or Irving created anything offensively as both players were taken out of their primary games. Neither team was successful from the perimeter and Boston failed to go to the line. We expect all that to change here as the game will more closely resemble the second half of the previous contest.
Mike Rose
Texas at Detroit
Play: Under 9
Martinez’s home/road splits are scary to take into account when looking at the under of tonight’s series opener in Detroit, but with Miggy and Victor both out, I’ll take a stab. Norris has failed to live up to expectations thus far, but he could thrive in this spot with the Rangers ranked #29 against left-handed pitching. The under has cashed five of the L/7 times these clubs squared off in Comerica, and the brisk temps in Detroit should make it tougher for the sticks to get going.
Tony Finn
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
Play: Toronto Blue Jays +105
The American League East Birds square off tonight at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland, with first pitch scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET with Blue Jays right-hander Aaron Sanchez (0-1, 2.95 ERA) squaring off against Orioles righty Chris Tillman (1-0, 2.89).
The Orioles are scuffling and have dropped six of seven but return home in an attempt to right their ship, their bullpen, for the most part.
The punch less Jays are beginning to bunch hits together despite being without a big part of their offensive. Third baseman Josh Donaldson (calf), outfielder Kevin Pillar (suspension), outfielder Steve Pearce (calf) and catcher Russell Martin (shoulder) are all sidelined. Jose Bautista is starting to find his swing after a sluggish start to the season with eight hits in the early week series versus the Braves. Batuista's hit four homers, registered 12 RBI and scored 11 runs over his last nine games.
Sanchez makes his second start since returning from the disabled list. returned to the mound for the first time since going on the DL. He was solid in that start allowing no earned runs over five innings of work.
Tillman, who has gone five or fewer innings in both of his starts back from the disabled list, will take the mound in Friday night's series opener vs. Toronto. Tillman returned from the DL winning his first turn. He allowed three hits and three walks with four strikeouts over five innings vs. the White Sox.
However, not all is right with Tillman and his win over the Pale Sox is nothing to write home about. Over the last full year of pitching Tillman's been fortunate, to type the least, as his strand rate is due for serious regression. In his first start back off the DL he stranded every single base runner. His hard contact rate has climbed nearly 10 points and it is primarily due to his increased walk ratio and his inability to spot his fastball and create swings and misses.
Every important factor in Tillman’s success as an Oriole, has declined over the last year, most critical is his swinging strike percentage. He simply isn't fooling hitters like he did two-to-three seasons ago and the North of the Border Birds know him well.