Dave Essler
Cardinals -145
This is my one bet for the day, but I will give you thoughts as usual. Here we have an NL total going UP, or at least the vig. That's with what has been an anemic Giants offense and no, no Hunter Pence, against a rested Wacha and a bullpen that's been on the upswing. Moore threw 120 pitches last game and 108 in the game prior to that. So, pitching deep isn't a strong likelihood, and we don't trust their bullpen - so add that to the total going up and IMO it seems like the Cardinals will be the ones doing most of the scoring.
Ian Cameron
Philadelphia at Pittsburgh
Play: Over 9
The days of Jeremy Hellickson’s strong start to the season for the Philadelphia Phillies are numbered. Hellickson sports a decent 3.71 ERA but it doesn’t correlate to his xFIP which is nearly two full runs higher at 5.56. His strikeouts per 9 innings has declined sharply from last season going from 7.3 to 3.7 and his swinging strike rate has followed a similar pattern going down from 10.8% last season to 7.4%. He’s also seen an uptick in his hard hit ball pct. which indicates opposing hitters are squaring up his pitches more successfully than a year ago. Hellickson has surrendered 12 runs in his last 13.1 innings of work and has failed to pitch more than 6 innings in four straight starts which is bad news for a Phillies bullpen that is not only bad with a 5.04 collective bullpen ERA but has been taxed with Phillies starting pitchers on a 7-game streak of not getting past six innings in any start. Pittsburgh’s lineup has climbed their way out of a recent funk by scoring 30 runs in their last five games combined and I expect them to do damage tonight. On the flip side, Trevor Williams takes the mound for the Pirates and he doesn’t offer a whole lot of long-term upside. He has allowed 17 runs on 23 hits in 19.2 innings of combined starting and relief work for the Pirates this season and the long ball has burned him issuing 5 home runs during that span. Williams has had trouble finding the strike zone at times as well with nine walks allowed in 19.2 innings. Philadelphia has scored at least four runs in seven of their last nine games and should be able to plate some runs tonight against Williams and the Pirates tonight. The over is 7-2 in Philadelphia’s last nine games and 4-2 in Pittsburgh’s last six games. I expect a high scoring affair in this inner state battle tonight.
Bob Balfe
Nationals -1.5
The Braves are the worst team in baseball at hitting left handers and the Nationals are the best team in baseball at hitting right handers. R.A. Dickey is a man well past his prime and I expect the Nationals to jump on Atlanta early in this one. The money line is too high to play so we will go with the run line.
Harry Bondi
HOUSTON (-130) over Cleveland
We have had a field day going against Cleveland pitcher Trevor Bauer recently and we’ll do it again here tonight. The struggling right-hander is 1-3 on the road this season with an ERA hovering around 7.00 and in his last three starts overall he has allowed 14 runs on 20 hits in 16 IP with a 1.750 WHIP. Compare that to Astros starter Charlie Morton who is 4-0 with a 2.43 ERA at home this season and you can see why we are more than willing to lay the -130 here. Houston is also 14-6 at home overall this season and a profitable 23-7 against right-handed starters. The price is right. Lay the home favorite.
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for tonight is on the Pittsburgh Pirates at home, against the struggling Philadelphia Phillies, as the cross-state rivals open a Keystone State series in Steeltown.
Tthe Pirates come in after winning two straight, after Adam Frazier drove in four runs during a 10-4 win over the Washington Nationals last night. That's a huge win over a mighty powerful team, and now the momentum will carry over to the weekend.
Philadelphia steps into Pittsburgh after losing 8-4 at Texas yesterday afternoon. The Phillies have lost four straight and six of seven, while they're stuck with their worst record through 38 games since 2000.
All Bucs tonight.
2* PIRATES
Jack Brayman
My paid play for tonight is on the San Diego Padres, against the Arizona Diamondbacks, and in this one I want you listing the scheduled starting pitchers; Jered Weaver and Taijuan Walker.
This is a pitching rematch from a series that took place in late April, when the Padres and Weaver took the L, from the Snakes and Walker.
But see, Weaver is coming off his best start of the season, in which he allowed one run over six innings against the White Sox. It was the veteran right-hander's first outing without allowing a homer.
Walker, on the other hand, has allowed seven runs over his last two outings. And while only four of them were earned, he hasn't necessarily looked as good as he did last month.
Take the Padres and list both.
5* PADRES
Brad Wilton
Friday night comp play is the Rangers and Tigers to open their weekend series in Motown with an Over.
Texas has been on an offensive surge, as they are averaging 6.5 runs per game over their last 9 games, as the Rangers have plated 59 runs.
Texas has played Over in their last pair of games, and 4 of their last 5 overall.
Detroit is fresh off a 3-game home set in which they posted 22 runs against the Baltimore Orioles, 2 of those 3 games landing Over the total.
Texas starter Nick Martinez sports a season ERA over 5, while Detroit starter Daniel Norris's ERA is 4.34 for the season.
I say offense rules tonight at Comerica Park.
Texas and Detroit Over the total.
4* TEXAS-DETROIT OVER
Jeff Benton
Friday night comp play is the Under in the Penguins-Senators series.
Pittsburgh's offense has not been seen through the first 3 games, as the Senators have held the Penguins to just 3 goals, as 2 of the 3 games played thus far have held Under the total.
Wednesday's game did land Over thanks to an Ottawa 4-goal eruption in the first period, but I don't think the Sens are going to light up the scoreboard in that fashion again tonight.
This game will revert to previous series form, as the previous 4 played dating back to the regular season had all held Under the total.
With Ottawa goalie Craig Anderson in a zone, and the Penguins offense just not being able to solve Anderson or the Senators neutral zone trapping, look for Game 4 on this Eastern Conference Final series to land Under the total.
Penguins-Senators Under.
2* PITTSBURGH-OTTAWA UNDER
JOHN MARTIN
Texas Rangers +130
The Texas Rangers are the hottest team in baseball and we're getting them at a great underdog price here Friday night against the Detroit Tigers. The Rangers have won nine straight coming into this series while scoring at least five runs in eight of the nine wins. I'm not high on Nick Martinez, but he's not going to have to deal with arguably the two best hitters for the Tigers in Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, who are both expected to sit tonight. The Rangers are 6-0 in their last six meetings in Detroit.
DARRYL TUCHOLSKI
Angels vs. Mets
Play: Over 7½
Ricky Nolasco is no stranger to the NL, if you recall he's spent 9 years of his career getting battered to the tune of a high 4 ERA. The sharps are banking on Degrom holding the Angels down, but with Trout on fire (homeruns in 4 of his last 5 games) I wouldn't worry. This game may hit 10 runs.
DAVE PRICE
Indians vs. Astros
Play: Astros -129
The Houston Astros have gone 9-1 in their last 10 games overall, have the best record in baseball at 29-12, and we're getting them at a very reasonable price at home tonight. And they have a huge advantage on the mound over the Indians in this one. Charlie Morton has gone 4-0 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 5 home starts this season. He'll be opposed by Trevor Bauer, who is 3-4 with a 6.92 ERA in 7 starts and 1-3 with a 6.95 ERA in 4 road starts. The Astros are 10-1 in their last 11 during game 1 of a series. The Astros are 5-0 in Morton's last 5 home starts.
JACK JONES
Phillies vs. Pirates
Play:Phillies +113
The Philadelphia Phillies are showing great value as road underdogs to the Pittsburgh Pirates today. The Phillies will be highly motivated to put an end to their current four-game losing streak heading into this series. They have lost seven of their last eight overall as well.
The Phillies have the clear edge on the mound tonight with Jeremy Hellickson, who is 4-1 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.099 WHIP in eight starts this season. Hellickson is 2-1 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.164 WHIP in three career starts against Pittsburgh as well.
Trevor Williams is no more than a fill-in starter for the Pirates. He has gone 1-1 with a 7.87 ERA and 1.625 WHIP in two starts this year. He has already allowed three homers in just eight innings over those two starts.
Half of Philadelphia's 14 wins this season have come with Hellickson on the mound. In fact, the Phillies are 7-1 in his eight starts this season. They have the edge on the mound and at the plate today folks.
LARRY WALLACE
Colorado at Cincinnati
Play: Colorado -102
Taking the Rockies in this game. The Rockies own the second-best record in the National League, while the Reds dropped the final six contests on a seven-game road trip to fall two games below .500. Nolan Arenado hit his 10th home run Thursday and maintained his perfect fielding percentage at the hot corner.
TEDDY COVERS
New York at Tampa Bay
Play: New York -123
The Yankees red hot lineup got cooled off by Danny Duffy last night, but I’m not expecting any sort of longer term decline. A squad that leads the majors with 17 games this season in which they’ve produced seven runs or more is live to do it again tonight in Tampa against Rays spot starter Erasmo Ramirez. This is a lineup worthy of support following a loss in which they got shut down completely; 8-2 in their last ten games on the highway.
And the Yanks are catching Tampa in a ‘fat and happy’ spot, returning home off their first winning road trip in nearly a year. The Rays just hit ten home runs in Cleveland in their three game series, now returning home to the Trop where the ball just doesn’t carry as well as it does in most other ballparks. This Rays lineup is not primed to batter Luis Severino and the elite Yankees bullpen behind him.
Severino’s advanced metric stats are truly stellar. His xFIP is sitting at 2.87, nearly a full run lower than his ERA. Severino has an excellent 50% ground ball rate and he’s striking out more than ten batters per nine innings while walking only two. Severino held the Rays to two runs on five hits while striking out 11 batters in a dominant seven inning performance in his lone start against Tampa this year. His numbers this season and for his career clearly show that the best place to back Severino is on the highway, because he just doesn’t allow many home runs in pitcher friendly venues like this one.
Behind Severino, the Yanks rank #2 in MLB in bullpen ERA, suffering only three bullpen losses all year. The Rays bullpen has suffered ten losses already and they rank outside the top half of MLB in bullpen ERA. That’s bad news with Ramirez on the hill, because he’s not going to eat up many innings, lasting only five in his lone previous start this season and coming off a 28 pitch effort out of the bullpen on Sunday. Short road chalk worth laying!
MARK FRANCO
White Sox vs. Mariners
Play: White Sox +100
Quintana did not factor in the decision in his last outing after giving up three runs and five hits over seven innings against San Diego. The 28-year-old has posted a 2.13 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in his last 11 starts versus AL West teams. Quintana is 2-1 with a 3.46 ERA in eight career appearances (seven starts) against the Mariners and has limited Kyle Seager to 2-for-19 hitting but both hits are homers.
Miranda recorded a season-high eight strikeouts in five innings against Toronto but yielded one run and three hits in a no-decision. The 28-year-old has enjoyed success at home, going 6-1 with a 3.02 ERA in 10 career appearances (nine starts) at Safeco Field. Miranda lost to the White Sox in Chicago last season when he gave up three runs and five hits over four innings, serving up a homer to fellow Cuban Jose Abreu.