Free Picks for Wednesday, Friday, January 20th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
RED WINGS VS SABRES
PLAY: RED WINGS +110
Detroit hits the road for a game with the Sabres in Buffalo, and the Red Wings should be arriving with a good deal of momentum. The Wings are off one of their best wins of the season as they rallied from a three-goal deficit to beat the Bruins on Wednesday evening.
The Sabres are definitely making progress toward respectability this season, and the future might finally be looking good for the long suffering Buffalo faithful. But the Sabres have looked beatable recently and I’m not seeing them as chalk material here.
I realize that’s not much of an analysis, but as of now this is really the only Friday game I have any opinion on. Rather than mislead readers with a breakdown that makes the game sound like a great investment, I’d rather it read like a lean, as that’s all it is. But at plus money, I can at least make a case there’s a little value on the Red Wings side this evening.
Sleepyj
Portland -115
Portland hasn't been very good over the last month or so...Something tells me they give a big effort tonight and it comes from the stars on the team..Trailblazers have lost 3 games now in a row and this is the best chance they have at picking up a win...This is the 3rd game of this road trip and word is the team has issues internally right now...I can see that being a issue, but overall they have two stars that can pull this team together..Philly on the other hand is talking about making the playoffs...That could be good and bad for Philly overall..They might be looking ahead, but they should come in here focused tonight..Something just tells me that the Trailblazers really give an all out effort and Philly isn't good enough....Yet, to stop it...Philly has more work to do and this is really the most crucial time of the season for Portland...They sit right on the fringe of the playoffs right now...Making a turn in the right direction would get them back in, but if they in fact lose this game, I think the Trailblazers crumble after this loss if that is the case...If Portland falls tonight, I will be on the fade train for sure...I think they pull it out with Lillard and McCollum taking over and taking charge once again.
Jesse Schule
Warriors vs. Rockets
Play: Under 237½
All eyes will be on Houston Friday, when MVP favorite James Harden and the Houston Rockets host the Golden State Warriors. There are plenty of interesting storylines here.. a revenge spot for the Warriors who lost to the Rockets in OT at home earlier this year. Or if could be a let down spot for the Dubs, coming off a blowout win over the Thunder, with KD scoring a whopping 40 points against his former team. I'm not interested in picking a winner here, as I've got my eyes on the total. The over/under is set at an enormous 236.5 points, and I simply can't resist betting the under with such an inflated number. The last time these teams met, the final score was 132-127 for Houston. Only 228 of those points were scored in regulation though, and only once in the last 10 meetings have these teams combined for more than 228 points. That was a 123-110 home win for the Warriors, and those 233 points still fall short of tonight's total. The Warriors have now gone under 10 of their last 11 road games. Even for those who think this game is going to be a shootout, there's just no value betting over with such an inflated total.
Brandon Shively
Milwaukee at Orlando
Play: Orlando +3
I like the time to buy in on the Magic tonight. Things can’t get much worse for them. They just played a dreaded 6 game road trip on the West Coast. The good news is they are back home and have had 1 day of rest. The Magic’s next game is at home Sunday vs the Warriors. Having lost 3 straight and 7 of their last 8, the Magic know this is an important game because their last home win was before Christmas. They need to give the fans some hope and reason to come fill the gym Sunday against the Warriors. Orlando knows that game vs the Warriors is more than likely a loss and the need to win is now.
Players have spoken. Nikola Vucevic summed it up nicely here and I would think that would get the players attention….“I don’t think anybody is happy with where we are at,” Nikola Vucevic said. “We have to show up mad. But then show up mad. Be mad on the court. Mad doesn’t mean go out there and do dumb stuff. It’s playing the right way. Bring the effort, play mad, show some passion. You are supposed to do that if you play basketball. If you enjoy the game, it’s automatic. It’s never a question to do it.” Jeff Green, another veteran, was vocal about the lack of effort. I expect a fully motivated Magic team here.
There is reason for excitement after a 6 game road trip. There is also motivation playing with same season double revenge against the Bucks. Home Dogs coming off a 6 game road trip are 60-45-2 ATS (57.1%). When our home dog lost the last 3 road games on their road trip, they improve to 24-13 ATS (64.9%). When we add in the home dog playing with double revenge, like the Magic, these home dogs are 14-6-1 ATS (70%) since 1996.
The Bucks are on a 3 game skid having lost the 3 games by 9, 13, and 19 points. They have won 8 road games this year. This will be only their 3rd time as a road favorite this season. Their last two road wins have been by 1 and 2 points.
While the Magic are on a losing streak, they have not given up in the 4th quarter. They have either won the 4th quarter or played to close over their last 5 road games. For the Bucks, they got outscored in the 4th quarter of their last 4 games.
This game is more important to Orlando I think than meets the eye. They are facing a team on a skid also, and the Magic have played better 4th quarters lately. In January, the Bucks rank 28th in offensive rating in the 4th. The Magic rank 20th.
Orlando is 19-9-1 ATS as a homedog of 5 or less points, playing with revenge and off 3 losses. This is a rare spot for the Bucks to have lost 3 straight and still be a road favorite here that the public is in love with.
LV Traders
Raptors at Hornets
Pick: Raptors
The Raptors had a little set back on Wednesday, but playing in a B2B can do that. They take on a Hornets teams that is not living up to expectations and been barely mediocre in the first half of the season. Toronto will be fired up ready to get back to their comfy 48% shooting. Charlotte will have a hard time keeping up on offense as they are only shooting 42% from the floor. The Raptors are a great shooting team, and 2nd best in the NBA at the 3 ball. The Raptors lead the NBA in forcing turnovers as they get about 15 per game. Expect a sharp offense and a feisty defense from this team.
Jim Feist
Oakland at Northern Kentucky
Pick: Over
Oakland likes to run, 35-16-1 over the total as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Oakland averages 88.2 ppg, but the defense allowed 80.2 ppg. They are also 5-1 over the total following a double-digit loss at home. Northern Kentucky is home, surrendering 76 and 93 points the last two games, both losses.
Jason Sharpe
Detroit (+7) over Wright State
The Detroit Titans have won their last two games in a row and are playing as well as they've played all season long right now. They play a Wright State squad that they split with last year during the regular season with the loss coming by just 1 point. Look for the Titans to keep things close here in this one. Take Detroit plus the points.
Wunderdog
Florida @ Vancouver
Pick: Florida -103
Florida is 5-5 over the last 10 games, cashing three times as a dog. The Panthers are solid defensively at #14 in goals allowed, and seventh in penalty killing. Vancouver is favored but has only one win in the last five contests. Vancouver has holes everywhere. They are #25 in goals scored, #28 on the power play, #18 in goals allowed, and #22 in penalty killing. The Canucks are 7-19 against the Eastern Conference, plus 6-13 playing on two days of rest.
Teddy Covers
Golden State at Houston
Play: Golden State -5
When these teams met for the first time this season, the Warriors were laying -11 to the Rockets at home. Golden State never led by more than four points at any point during that game, eventually losing outright in overtime. The key to Golden State’s weakness that night? Nothing more than a rare poor shooting game from their starting backcourt, as Steph Curry and Klay Thompson combined to hit just 13-of-42 from the floor. Meanwhile, Houston role player Ryan Anderson came off the bench to score 29, including five backbreaking three pointers.
Anderson has missed the last two games with the flu, no sure thing to suit up or be effective this evening. Here’s the quote from Rockets head coach Mike D’Antonio, following Houston’s loss in Miami earlier in the week with an injury depleted roster: “These are dog days. We're going to have to find some energy and see if we can sneak one out."
It’s been an impressive first half of the season for the Rockets, currently sitting at #3 in the West – this is not a desperate, hungry team, especially off their national TV win and cover against Milwaukee on Wednesday Night, taking the sting out of that previous loss at Miami. But from a scheduling standpoint, the Rockets are really up against it right now. This will be Houston’s seventh game in the last 11 nights (the first six all involved court changes and travel too). And it’s the first night of back-to-backs – they’ll play their eighth game in 12 nights tomorrow at Memphis.
That stands in sharp contrast with the Warriors scheduling spot. Golden State just completed an 11 day homestand in which they played only four games, allowing head coach Steve Kerr to get some much needed practice sessions in. As a result, all of a sudden, the Warriors are playing championship level defense, ranked #4 in the NBA in defensive efficiency this month. Their offense is playing at an extraordinarily high level as we’ve clearly seen in Golden State blowout wins over the likes of the Cavs and Thunder in their last two games.
When the Warriors are in rested and in sync, like they are right now, they’re as good as any NBA team in modern history. Coming off those two impressive home blowouts, I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if Golden State wins by margin again tonight, covering the spread with room to spare.
ASA
Red Wings @ Sabres
Play: Over 5.5
The Red Wings are off of a 6-5 home win over Boston and that was the 5th over in Detroit’s last 6 games. A slowdown here is unlikely as the over is 10-6 this season when the Red Wings are off of a game where they allowed 4 goals or more. Also, when off of a divisional game, the over is 10-5 in Detroit’s games this season. The Red Wings have won 3 straight games and Detroit has a long-term mark of 12-6 to the over when they are on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Buffalo also has been getting involved in plenty of high-scoring match-ups recently. The over is 5-2 in the Sabres last 7 games and Buffalo did win 4-3 at Detroit in late December. The Sabres have scored 3 goals or more in 6 of their 8 games this month and the Red Wings have scored 3 goals or more in 9 of their last 12 games. Buffalo has scored 4 goals in 3 straight home games and this one is likely to turn into a shootout as the Sabres goalie Robin Lehner was pulled from his last start and his back-up, Anders Nilsson, is dealing with an illness. The Red Wings also are not without goaltending issues as their #1 netminder, Jimmy Howard, is still out with an injury and both Jared Coreau and Petr Mrazek have battled inconsistency between the pipes. All signs point to a good shot at getting this one to at least 6 goals and there is a nice positive return on the over 5.5 goals in this match-up. Bet the OVER in Buffalo in this one early Fridayevening.
Rocketman
Chicago @ Boston
Play: Boston -150
The Chicago Blackhawks travel to Boston to take on the Bruins on Friday night. Chicago is 28-19 SU overall this year while Boston comes in with a 23-25 SU overall record on the season. Chicago is scoring only 2.4 goals per game on the road this year. Chicago is allowing 3.6 goals per game their past 5 games overall. Boston is scoring 3.4 goals per game their past 5 games overall. Chicago is 2-5 last 7 games when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game. Chicago is 1-4 last 5 games when playing on 2 days rest. Boston is 4-1 last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. We'll recommend a small play on Boston tonight!
Chris Jordan
My free play is out of the same conference as my premium selection, as I like UW Milwaukee over Cleveland State in Horizon League play.
As the Panthers finish up a stretch of home games, the last-place Vikings arrive after a monumental win that could result in a letdown. Cleveland State knocked off previous first-place Oakland on its own court and now it might still be hungover.
Truth is, if the Vikings were playing this game immediately after beating Oakland - say, on Wednesday - I'd give them the benefit of the doubt. But since they had time to leave Oakland, return to Cleveland and they're now back on the road in Milwaukee, this is a terrible spot.
Too much time in between, and with college kids, a little partying back home could have these players distracted.
Meanwhile, the struggling Panthers could use a league win after opening the Horizon campaign on a 1-5 skid. One of those losses came against Cleveland State on Dec. 31, so the revenge factor is in place, too.
Take the home team in this one, as Milwaukee rolls.
4* UW MILWAUKEE
Brad Wilton
Friday night comp play will be the surging 76ers on their home floor over the visiting Blazers.
The "Trust the Process" chant has been ringing through the stands at the Wells Fargo Center of late, as Philly comes into this home game with wins in their last pair, and 7 of their last 9 overall. The Sixers have also covered in 8 of their last 9 games contested.
Portland isn't exactly burning things up as they hit the court tonight, as the Blazers have dropped 3 straight, and are 5-12 overall their last 17.
Philly has held their own against Portland of late, as they are 3-4 straight up the last 7 series meetings, and are 4-1 against the spread the last 5 showdowns.
Going to ride Philadelphia to keep their surge going one more time.
2* PHILADELPHIA
Eric Schroeder
Tonight I'm playing the Milwaukee Bucks, who hope to avoid their first four-game losing streak of the season, and will against a struggling Orlando Magic team.
While the Bucks just lost to a legit Houston Rockets team on Wednesday, the Magic were also getting beat up the same night, a 20-point setback to the New Orleans Pelicans.
Orlando has lost nine of its last 11, and will continue to struggle with the absence of Evan Fournier. The Magic are missing out on offense, and offensive rebounding.
Look for Milwuakee to roll here.
2* BUCKS