Jimmy Boyd
Celtics vs. Raptors
Play: Raptors -3½
I really like the value here with Toronto as a short home favorite against the Celtics. The Raptors went just 5-11 over their final 16 games before the All-Star break and I believe it has them way undervalued at home against Boston. Injuries played a big part in their struggles. Not only is Toronto healthy, but they will be adding in newly acquired Serge Ibaka, who will help them out on both sides of the ball.
The Raptors have taken 2 of the first 3 games against the Celtics this season, but did just recently lose at Boston 104-109. The Celtics needed a 32-19 4th quarter to secure the win and it came with Toronto playing without their best player in DeMar DeRozan. This is a statement game for the Raptors coming out of the break and I like their chances of delivering at home against a division rival. Raptors are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 home games against a team with a winning road record and 20-6 ATS in their last 26 against division opponents.
Steve Janus
Phoenix at Chicago
Play: Chicago -6
Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHICAGO) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival. This system is 33-11 (75%) against the spread since 1996.
Brandon Lee
Jazz vs. Bucks
Play: Jazz -3
I know that Utah isn't a great road team, but I just feel there's too much value here with the Jazz laying a short number against the Bucks. Utah limped into the All-Star break, which I actually like, as it should have them motivated to come out strong in the first game back. The Jazz are also finally healthy with all their major pieces in play. If not for injuries I think this team would be viewed a lot different. I just see a big gap here in talent between them and the Bucks. Sure Milwaukee won 3 straight before the break, but it came against the Pacers, Pistons and Nets, which isn't anything to get excited about. Prior to that they had gone just 2-12 in their previous 14 games. Note that the Bucks are a mere 3-13 ATS over the last 3 seasons after 3 or more consecutive wins.
Alex Smart
Oilers vs. Capitals
Play: Oilers +180
The Edmonton Oilers are currently playing a top level brand of hockey of late, as is evident, by a 4-1-0 record in their last five games would indicate . In the Oilers last trip to the golden pond, the leagues leader scorer Conner McDavid led the team to a 4-3 overtime victory at Florida that snapped the Panthers' five-game winning streak. Tonight against a strong Washington side they matchup well against and beat earlier this season, 4-1 , Im betting they are viable underdogs. Tonight look for Oilers Goalie Cam Talbot, who owns a spectacular 16-6-5 mark with four shutouts away from home to be the catalyst behind a Oilers victory.
John Martin
Lakers vs. Thunder
Play: Lakers +10
I believe the Oklahoma City Thunder are getting too much respect from the books after they traded to get Taj Gibson and Doug McDermott yesterday. But for now, they'll be short-handed for this game against the Lakers. They won't have their chemistry in their first game back from the All-Star Break. The Lakers are as healthy as they have been all season and should come out of the break being covering machines, just like they were when they started the season. That return to health has led to a 7-3 ATS run over their last 10 games. This number is simply too big tonight.
Black Widow
Phoenix at Chicago
Play: Chicago -6
Bets on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Chicago) revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent that's off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival are 46-16 ATS since 1996. The Suns blew out the Lakers in their final game before the break at home, but I think they get their doors blown off on the road in their first game back here at Chicago. The Suns are allowing 113.3 points per game on the road this season.
Dave Price
Heat vs. Hawks
Play: Hawks -4
The Miami Heat won 14 of their final 16 games before the All-Star Break. Now the betting public has taken notice and this team is clearly overvalued now. The break was the last thing that the Heat needed as they had all that momentum, but now having a week off can only hurt them. The Atlanta Hawks lost 3 of their last 5 games before the break and aren't getting any love now. I strongly believe this line is shorter than it should be as the Hawks are clearly the superior team and should be favored by more than 4 at home. The Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss. The Hawks are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS loss.
Teddy Davis
Oregon State vs. California
Play: Oregon State +18
While we all can agree Oregon St is a bad team, but recently they have shown life. They have covered 4 straight games which included an upset over Utah. They have also covered 7 of their last 10. Cal to me has absolutely zero motivation here after they are coming off a heartbreaking loss to Oregon. While Cal no doubt wins this game, I don't see them being to interested here. Given the situation and asking them to cover a large number I would take all the points. Also Oregon St only lost by 11 in their first meeting.
Jack Jones
Nets vs. Nuggets
Play: Nets +9.5
The Denver Nuggets are starting to be overvalued due to their current standing as the No. 8 seed in the West. They lost 99-112 at home to Minnesota as 6.5-point favorites in their final game before the break, and they came out of the break with a lackluster 100-116 road loss to Sacramento as 6.5-point favorites.
I think the Brooklyn Nets come out of the All Star Break undervalued due to an NBA-high 14-game losing streak. However, it's not like the Nets haven't been competitive, losing 11 of their last 12 games by single-digits. Each of their last nine losses have come by single-digits as well, and I think that streak continues here Friday.
The Nuggets clearly haven't taken the Nets seriously in recent meetings. In fact, the Nets are a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings with the Nuggets. They've won each of the last three meetings outright as underdogs, including a 116-111 home victory over the Nuggets as 4.5-point dogs in their first matchup this season.
Brooklyn is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 road games when playing with 3 or more days of rest. Denver is 1-10 ATS in home games when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back over the last three seasons. The Nuggets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 0 days' rest.
Brad Diamond
Washington at Philadelphia
Play: Washington -7½
Here we go again with the Sixers throwing in the towel on the season after a mild run recently. The trades made are for the long-term development of the program? However, these major distractions have a way of altering floor and team chemistry at this point in the season. Although this is a difficult number to lay, feel Washington's 23-9 ATS run overall and 6-1 ATS road current effectiveness enough to overcome "game" Philly. The home unit is 4-10 ATS with three or more days rest and could be in somewhat of down mood here.
Jesse Schule
Brooklyn vs. Denver
Play: Brooklyn -9½
The Nuggets are just a half game up on the Sacramento Kings, clinging to the eighth and final playoff spot in the West. They've lost back to back games after upsetting Golden State two weeks ago. They tied an NBA record with 24 made three-pointers in the win over Golden State, but followed that up by making just 23-of-69 attempts since. After suffering a blowout loss on the road at Sacramento last night, I expect to see the Nuggets play with a bit of added intensity at home tonight. They host bottom feeders Brooklyn, who have lost 14 straight. Normally playing on back to back nights is a disadvantage, but when your opponent is coming off a week long layoff, it's probably a positive thing. There isn't much for Brooklyn to play for here on the road at altitude in one of the league's toughest places to play. The Nets have failed to cover in seven of their last eight games against Western Conference teams.
Will Rogers
Brown vs. Dartmouth
Pick: Dartmouth
The set-up: It's Friday night Ivy League action when the 8-20 Brown Bears visit the 10-18 Dartmouth Big Green. Brown is a woeful 3-11 in Ivy games (tied for last with Cornell) and Dartmouth just barely better at 4-10.
Brown: The Bears come in on a five-game losing streak on a season in which they are scoring 75.8 PPG and allowing 77.8. A pair have seniors have led the way, 6-6 forward Spieth (17.0-5.9-3.7) and guard Blackmon (11.2 & 3.9 APG), who are the team's lone double digit scorers.
Dartmouth: The Big Green are "on a roll" in comparison, entering with a 3-3 record in their previous six games. Dartmouth owns one of the Ivy's best big men in the 6-8 Evan Boudreaux, who is averaging 16.9 points and 9.3 rebounds. A pair of solid guards chip in 12.5 PPG (Smith) and 10.2 PPG (Wright).
The pick: Series history says Brwown (the Bears 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings overall against the Big Green) but Dartmouth won 77-74 at Brown back on Feb 11th. What's more, while Brown limps in 0-5 SU & ATS its last five, Dartmouth enters 5-1 ATS its last six. Lay the points with the home team.
Larry Ness
Memphis vs. Indiana
Pick: Memphis
The Indiana Pacers didn't make a move at the trade deadline and get back on the court for the first time since the break at 29-28. They are currently the East's No. 6 seed and are three games inside of the playoff 'cut line." Indiana welcomes the 34-24 Memphis Grizzlies to Bankers Life Fieldhouse Friday evening. Memphis, the owners of three max-contract players in center Marc Gasol, PG Mike Conley and SF Chandler Parsons, was devoid of trade rumors in recent weeks. Does that mean the Grizzlies feel like they can compete in the West with their current roster?
Memphis currently owns the West's No. 6 seed and if it stays away from falling lower, the Grizzlies would avoid Golden St or San Antonio in the first round. However, one of those two teams will be waiting for them in the second round and just who expects Memphis to be able to win a series against either of those teams? The Grizzlies have won seven of their last 10 games and have held their own on the road this season, going 16-13 SU and 15-14 ATS. "Overall, I'm really happy with this team," head coach David Fizdale told The Commercial Appeal. "We've shown that we can compete with the best. With what we have, if we continue to build chemistry and guys get stronger, I'd like to see where this team ends up."
In stark contrast to the "All Quiet on the Western Front" attitude surrounding Memphis during the last week, trade speculation surrounded the Pacers all week, especially around Indiana's best player, Paul George (23.2-5.3-6.2). However, Larry Bird and company ended up staying pat. Indiana went into the break on a six-game slide, which was preceded by a seven-game winning streak! The Pacers have fallen apart on the defensive end, allowing 116.0 PPG during the team's six-game skid.
This game is of utmost importance because after this home contest vs Memphis, the Pacers hit the road for five straight games, including trips to Houston and San Antonio. It may be an important game for Indiana but I want no part of this team the way it has been playing defense. Take the road team.
Chip Chirimbes
Lakers vs. Thunder
Play: Lakers +10.5
Magic Johnson is back! But, this tenure with the Lakers of course is not as a player but as an executive as the new president of basketball operations. Los Angeles who has lost 10 straight to the Thunder are also 0-7 ATS in the last seven meetings in Oklahoma City. With the Lakers trading their spark-plug Lou Williams they look to build on their 7-3 ATS run before the break.
ASA
Brooklyn Nets +10
The Nuggets are off a game last night in Sacramento which resulted in a 16-point road loss. They shot 44% for game which isn’t horrible but they didn’t play much defense, allowing the Kings to hit 52% from the field, 50% from the beyond the arc. Denver is just 2-10 SU (4-8 ATS) when playing without rest this season with an average loss margin of 9PPG. Because of the higher altitude in Denver the schedule makers typically don’t schedule the Nuggets to play at home the second night of a back to backs. In fact, it’s only happened 12 times since the start of the 2014 season and the Nuggets are a pathetic 1-11 SU & ATS in those games. Brooklyn is playing better even though it hasn’t translated to a ton of wins but they have covered 3 of their last five games and have a negative differential of -6PPG which is nearly 3-points better than their season differential. Of their last 9 losses, none have come by more than 9-points or tonight’s spread. We’re not sure how Denver is a favorite of this size when their defense is allowing over 51% shooting their last five games and even the All-Star break didn’t fix that. Brooklyn clearly isn’t a great defensive team but the Nuggets are last in the league in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.134 points per possession. In the lone meeting this season the Nets did win at home by 5-points which is 6th straight time they’ve beaten Denver. Grab the points with Brooklyn.