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College Basketball Betting News and Trends For Thursday, March 15, 2018

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shazman

(@shazman)

Posts: 57818

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Thursday’s NCAA games
Day Games
Oklahoma is 4-11 in its last 15 games after starting season 14-2; they haven’t played since Wednesday. Sooners are #303 experience team with no senior starters. In their last three games, Oklahoma is 22-82 (26.8%) behind the arc. Rhode Island split its last eight games; they lost A-14 final on Sunday. Rams start four seniors; they’re 4-6 vs top 100 teams. URI forces turnovers 22.8% of time (#5). Over last five years, favorites are 12-8 vs spread in #7-10 seed 1st round games. Over last three years, Big X teams are 12-2 SU vs A-14 teams, 9-4 vs spread.

Tennessee is in NCAAs for 1st time since 2014; Barnes is in for 14th time in last 17 years, but first time since ’15- he is 9-4 in his last 13 1st-round games. Vols played SEC title game Sunday, now has early tip time on Thursday; pretty quick turnaround. Tennessee is 8-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100, with six wins by 10+. Wright State coach Nagy was 1-2 vs spread in 1st-round when he was at South Dakota St. Raiders finished 2nd in Horizon; their last game was March 6. Horizon League reps are 2-4 vs spread in 1st-round games the last six years.

Gonzaga will have big crowd support in this game in Boise; Zags won their last nine 1st-round games (5-4 vs spread). Gonzaga is #239 experience team that won its last 14 games; they lost national title game 71-65 LY, re-tooled, are 30-4 this year- they’re 8-4 vs top 100 teams, but aren’t great defending arc (#210 in 3-pt %age). NC-Greensboro lost by 12 to Virginia, by 6 to Wake Forest in its high-profile games; they get 40% of their points from arc (35.5% on 3’s). SoCon teams lost last nine 1st-round games, going 1-3 vs spread last four years.

Ivy League teams covered seven of last eight 1st-round games, going 3-2 SU in last five, with all five decided by 6 or fewer points, but this is first time since ’89 that Ivy League rep is a 16-seed. Penn lost 90-62 to Villanova, 60-51 to Temple in its top 100 games this year; Quakers are #135 experience team. Kansas is 3-5-1 vs spread in last one 1st-round games; Jayhawks are 7-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100, with five wins by 30+ points. Kansas makes 40.3% on arc; they won eight of last nine games. Penn opponents shot only 29.6% on arc this season.

Duke is 2-4 vs spread in its last six first round games; they’re 8-0 vs teams ranked lower than #100, with seven wins by 17+ points. Blue Devils are 2nd-least experienced team in country but they do have senior G in Allen. Iona is #26 experience team that is in NCAAs for third year in row- they lost 1st round games 93-77 (Oregon), 94-81 (Iowa St) last two years. Gaels finished 4th in MAAC this year; they lost 71-62 to Syracuse of ACC. Iona shoots 38.8% on arc. Over last six years, #2 seeds are 12-11-1 against the spread in 1st round games.

Last six years, ACC teams are 13-25 vs spread in 1st-round games. Loyola is in NCAAs for first time since 1985; Ramblers won at Florida- they lost 87-53 in Boise, 73-56 in Milwaukee in non-MVC games (9-2). MVC teams won last eight 1st-round games; 6 of 8 wins were Wichita/Creighton, who have moved on. Miami won five of last six 1st-round games; they’re experience team #307, starting two frosh and a soph. Miami is 11-1 outside ACC (#283 NC sked), losing to New Mexico St in Diamond Head. Last 4 years, dogs are 9-7 vs spread in #6-11 seed games.

South Dakota State is in NCAA’s for 5th time in seven years, going 2-2 vs spread in previous four 1st-round games. Jackrabbits are #49 experience team that turns ball over least of any team in country (13.8%)- they beat Big 14’s Iowa 80-72 in November. Ohio State is 24-8 but lost three of last five games; Holtmann won/covered his three 1st-round tourney games while at Butler. Buckeyes are 9-4 outside Big 14, with all four losses to top 30 teams. Summit teams are 1-14 SU in this round, 5-4 vs spread the last nine years, covering only two times they were a #12-seed.

Seton Hall is #55 experience team that lost six of last 10 games; three of their last four games were decided either by 1 point or in OT. Pirates are 10-2 outside ACC, losing to Louisville of ACC by a hoop. NC State is 5-4 in its last nine games; they start frosh/soph guards- they’re #179 experience team. State is in NCAAs for first time since ’15; Keatts is in for 3rd year in row, losing but covering his 1st-round game last two years for UNCW. Last three years, Big East teams are 17-12 SU vs ACC teams. Last five years, favorites are 11-8 vs spread in #8-9 seed games.

Night Games
Last nine years, 16-seeds who won their play-in game are 7-11 vs spread in their next game, vs a #1-seed. Radford played only two guys more than 26:00 Tuesday, in their 8th straight win; Highlanders are 0-4 vs top 100 games, losing by 10-12-27-15 points. Villanova won its last five games; they’re 13-0 outside the Big East, Radford plays slow (#346 pace); they finished T2 in Big South; Wildcats are 11-0 vs teams outside top 100; three of their last six games went to OT. Last three years, #1-seeds are 7-5 against the spread in first round games.

Kentucky is least experienced team in country, starting four freshman, one soph; Wildcats won seven of last eight games- they’re 10-2 outside the SEC (NC sked #43), 7-9 vs top 50 teams, 4-7 vs spread in its last 11 first round games. Davidson won 8 of its last 9 games; they’re 5-6 outside A-14, 2-4 vs top 50 teams. Wildcats shoot 39.1% on arc, have #11 eFG% in country. Last three years, A-14 teams are 10-7–1 vs spread when getting points from an SEC squad. Last five years, A-14 teams are 7-5 vs spread when getting points in this round.

Houston is in NCAAs for first time since ’10; Cougars won 10 of last 12 games- they’re #48 experience team that is 10-2 outside AAC (#250 NC sked), 10-4 vs top 100 teams- they’ve got #9 eFG% defense in country. San Diego State won last nine games after PG Kell got healthy; Aztecs are 3-2 vs top 50 teams, 7-3 outside Mountain West- they’re in NCAA’s for first time since ’15, won last three first-round games. Last three years, AAC teams are 3-5 SU in this round, 2-3 vs spread when favored. Last 4 years, dogs are 9-7 vs spread in #6-11 seed games.

Texas Tech lost five of its last seven games; they had some players banged-up but they’re back now. Tech is 11-1 outside tough Big X, beating Abilene Christian of Southland 74-47 back in December. Red Raiders are 9-1 vs teams not ranked in top 100, with all nine wins by 18+ points. SF Austin is in tournament for 4th time in five years; they upset VCU, West Virginia in two of three 1st round games, lost other game by 7. Lumberjacks won 10 of last 11 games; they played three SEC teams this year (1-2), with three games decided by total of seven points.

Alabama lost six of last eight games, finished T9 in SEC, but upset Auburn in SEC tourney; they’re #348 experience team, 8-4 outside SEC (#84 NC sked). Crimson Tide shoots 32.4% on arc- their frosh PG Sexton is their best player. Virginia Tech is #156 experience team that finished 7th in ACC; Hokies beat Ole Miss by 3, lost by 7 at Kentucky in two SEC games. Bama is in NCAA’s for first time since 2012; Tech lost by 10 to Wisconsin LY, their first NCAA game in decade. Last three years, ACC teams are 32-23 SU vs SEC, 17-12 vs spread when favored.

Arizona won Pac-12 tourney last week, winning by 16-11ot-14 points; last two times Arizona won Pac-12 tourney, Wildcats won first NCAA tourney game by 21-18 points (1-0-1 vs spread)- Wildcats are 2-4-1 vs spread overall in last seven first round games. Arizona won seven of its last eight games; three of their last seven went to OT. Buffalo won 19 of its last 22 games; they’re 0-5 vs top 100 teams this season, losing by 6-14-11-7-16 points. Bulls are in 3rd NCAA in four years, losing last two by 6-7 points. MAC teams are 6-3 vs spread in last nine NCAAs.

Big Sky teams haven’t won an NCAA tourney game since 2006; they’re 1-5-1 vs spread in first round last seven years. Montana is in for first time in five years; they’re 3-2 vs spread in last five NCAA first round games. Griz won 19 of last 21 games; they’re 0-4 vs top 100 teams, losing by 13-16-3-3 points- they lost 70-57 to Big 14’s Penn State. Michigan won its last four first round game (2-2 vs spread); they’ve won nine games in row, have been off for 10 days since winning Big 14 tourney. Wolverines are #202 experience team; they’re 18-2 vs teams outside top 50.

#11-seeds who win the play-in games are 8-6 vs spread in their next game. St Bonaventure finished 2nd in A-14 this year; they’re #32 experience team, with pair of senior G’s- they won 14 of last 15 games, are 11-2 outside A-14, 8-4 vs top 100 teams. Florida covered six of its last eight first round games; they’ve made Elite 8 in their last five NCAA’s. Gators make 37.5% of their 3’s; they take lot of them. Florida is 8-4 outside the SEC (#54 NC sked). Bonnies played four kids 35:00+ in their win over UCLA- they survived their best player Adams going 2-16 from floor. Florida beat St. Bonaventure 73-66 in November ’16.

Posted : March 15, 2018 8:00 am

shazman

(@shazman)

Posts: 57818

Member Moderator

Topic starter

Preview: Radford vs. Villanova
Gracenote
Mar 14, 2018

Top-seeded Villanova starts the quest for a second NCAA Tournament championship in three years when it when takes on No. 16 seed Radford in the first round of the East Region on Thursday in Pittsburgh. The Wildcats take a five-game winning streak into the Big Dance after outlasting Providence 76-66 in overtime in the Big East title game and set their sights on the Highlanders, who advanced out of the First Four on Tuesday.

“The biggest challenge is always this first game,” Villanova coach Jay Wright told ESPN. “One game at a time.” Wildcats junior guard Jalen Brunson, the Big East Player of the Year, matched his career high with 31 points in the conference title game and leads the nation’s most productive offense that boasts six players averaging in double figures, 87.1 points per contest and 388 made 3-pointers - second-most in the country. Villanova, which is the top seed in the East for the third time in four seasons, will face a Radford team that has won a program record 23 games and lost to Ohio State, Vanderbilt and Virginia Tech earlier in the season. Ed Polite Jr. and Carlik Jones each notched double-doubles as the Highlanders won their first NCAA Tournament game by knocking off LIU Brooklyn 71-61 in Dayton on Tuesday.

TV: 6:50 p.m. ET, TNT

ABOUT RADFORD (23-12): Polite, a junior forward, leads the team in scoring (13.5), rebounds (7.9) and steals (1.9) while going over 1,100 points for his career after scoring 13 on Tuesday. Jones, a freshman who drained a 3-pointer at the buzzer in the Big South Tournament final to send the Highlanders to the NCAA Tournament for the third time, averages 11.8 points (13.5 in the last four) and 3.1 assists. Sophomore guard Travis Fields Jr. is averaging 12 points in the last three games (12-for-18 from the field) to push his season mark to 6.3.

ABOUT VILLANOVA (30-4): Brunson averages team highs of 19.4 points and 4.7 assists while draining 53.1 percent from the field and fellow junior guard Mikal Bridges (18.0 points, 52.1 from the field) is scoring 23 per game over the last five. Junior guard Phil Booth, who missed seven games with a hand injury earlier this season, is also a major threat but must recover from an 0-for-5 shooting effort in the Big East final. The Wildcats will also need a big tournament from sophomore guard Donte DiVicenzo (13.1 points), but he has scored only 6.3 per game in his last three outings.

TIP-INS

1. Villanova junior F Eric Paschall is averaging 11.3 points and 8.3 rebounds - both above his season marks - over the last four games.

2. It’s the first meeting between the schools and the winner plays Virginia Tech or Alabama in Saturday's second round.

3. The Wildcats are making their 13th NCAA Tournament appearance in 14 seasons and are 21-11 in that stretch.

PREDICTION: Villanova 92, Radford 62
__________________

Posted : March 15, 2018 9:55 am

shazman

(@shazman)

Posts: 57818

Member Moderator

Topic starter

Preview: St. Bonaventure vs. Florida
Gracenote
Mar 14, 2018

Sixth-seeded Florida hopes to find the best version of itself when it begins play in the NCAA Tournament against No. 11 seed St. Bonaventure in the first round of the East Region on Thursday in Dallas. The Gators owns impressive victories over Gonzaga, Cincinnati, Kentucky (two) and Auburn, but dropped five of their last eight games against non-NCAA teams before falling in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals against Arkansas.

“We have competitors, there’s no doubt about that. We see that every day at practice,” Florida senior guard Igor Koulechov told Floridagators.com. “Where we’re lacking sometimes is with our emotion.” As Koulechov said, it’s back to the rollercoaster for the Gators as they try to put strong performances on both sides of the floor together and make a run with a capable group that boasts four players averaging at least 11 points. St. Bonaventure will create quite a challenge after the Bonnies knocked off UCLA 65-58 on Tuesday in the First Four at Dayton, Ohio, for its school-record 26th win and first NCAA Tournament victory since 1970. St. Bonaventure advanced without big nights from its leading scorers - senior guards Jaylen Adams (19.4) and Matt Mobley (18.4), who finished with 22 points combined against the Bruins.

TV: 9:57 p.m. ET, truTV

ABOUT ST. BONAVENTURE (26-17): Mobley recorded 14 points Tuesday, but was 2-for-7 from 3-point range and 4-for-12 overall, while Adams missed 14 of his 16 field goals attempts and all five of his tries from behind the arc. Courtney Stockard (13.3 points) stepped up by scoring 26 and is averaging 23.8 over the last five contests, but the 6-5 junior lauded the team’s defense Tuesday. “We played the same defense all year,” Stockard told reporters. “UCLA is a good offensive team, high-scoring team. But. … we did a good job taking away their knowns, making them take contested shots.”

ABOUT FLORIDA (20-12): The Gators got hammered on the boards against Arkansas 43-28 and shot 41.7 percent from the field after winning the final three regular-season games in impressive fashion. Junior guard Jalen Hudson (15.3 points) scored 22.7 per game during those wins, but went 2-for-9 from the field against Arkansas while Koulechov (13.6 points) missed nine of 11 shots from the floor against the Razorbacks. Junior guard KeVaughn Allen (11.3) is averaging 14.8 points over the last four contests and experienced senior point guard Chris Chiozza (11.2 points, team-high 6.1 assists) runs the show.

TIP-INS

1. The Gators have played at least four games each of the last five times they reached the NCAA Tournament.

2. Adams went over 1,900 points (1,901) in his career last time out and is 12 assists shy of 600.

3. Koulechov has shot 20 percent or worse from the field in three of his last five contests.

PREDICTION: St. Bonaventure 76, Florida 70
__________________

Posted : March 15, 2018 9:55 am

shazman

(@shazman)

Posts: 57818

Member Moderator

Topic starter

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Thursday, March 15

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RADFORD (23 - 12) vs. VILLANOVA (30 - 4) - 3/15/2018, 6:50 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VILLANOVA is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games this season.
VILLANOVA is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
VILLANOVA is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
VILLANOVA is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in non-conference games this season.
VILLANOVA is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.