MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, July 15th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Cardinals @ Pirates
Lynn is 2-1, 3.50 in his last three starts; over is 9-5 in his last 14. St Louis is 4-6 in his road starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 9-8-1

Taillon is 2-0, 1.04 in his last three starts; his last four starts stayed under. Pirates are 2-3 in his home starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 5-3-3

Cardinals won three of last five games; over is 8-4-1 in their last 13 road games. Pittsburgh won six of last seven games; under is 10-2 in their last 12 home games.

Nationals @ Reds
Scherzer is 2-0, 2.18 in his last three starts; under is 7-3 in his last ten. Washington is 7-3 in his road starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 13-4-1

Castillo is 1-1, 3.13 in four starts this year (under 3-1). Reds’ first 5-inning record with him: 3-1

Nationals won six of last eight games; over is 5-3 in their last eight games. Cincinnati is 8-6 in its last 14 games; under is 10-0-1 in their last 11 games.

Rockies @ Mets
Chatwood is 0-3, 7.31 in his last three starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Rockies are 4-6 in his road starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 7-10-1

Lugo is 3-2, 5.34 in five starts this year (over 3-1-1). Mets are 0-1 in his home starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 3-2

Rockies are 2-12 in last 14 road games; under is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games. New York lost five of last seven games; under is 6-4 in their last ten games.

Dodgers @ Marlins
Wood is 9-0, 1.63 in his last ten starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Dodgers are 3-3 in his road starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 10-2-1

Urena is 11, 5.63 in his last three starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five. Miami is 4-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-4-2

Dodgers won their last seven games; under is 5-2-2 in their last nine games. Miami won five of last seven games; under is 5-1-1 in their last seven home games.

Diamondbacks @ Braves
Corbin is 0-3, 3.09 in his last four starts; over is 4-2-2 in his last eight. Arizona is 1-6 in his road starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 6-9-3

Foltynewicz is 4-0, 2.98 in his last seven starts; his last four starts stayed under. Atlanta is 5-2 in his home starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 7-5-4

Diamondbacks lost six of last seven games; under is 6-1-2 in their last nine games. Atlanta lost four of last seven games; five of their last seven games went over.

Phillies @ Brewers
Nola is 3-1, 1.54 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Phillies are 3-4 in his road starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 6-3-4

Nelson is 3-0, 2.84 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Milwaukee is 5-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-9-1

Phillies lost six of last seven games; under is 7-1-1 in their last nine games. Milwaukee is 10-2 in its last 12 games; under is 5-3 in their last eight games.

Giants @ Padres
Bumgarner is making his first start since April 19; he got hurt in an off-field accident. He is 0-3, 3.00 in four starts this year (under 3-1- SF scored 7 runs in those 4 games). Giants are 0-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-3

Chacin is 4-2, 2.13 in his last six starts; his last five starts stayed under. San Diego is 5-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-11-2

Giants lost five of last seven games; under is 6-3 in their last nine games. San Diego won five of last eight games; under is 9-4 in their last 13 games.

American League

New York @ Boston
Severino is 0-2, 5.75 in his last five starts; over is 9-4 in his last 13 starts. New York is 3-6 in his road starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 9-6-2

Sale is 3-1, 2.51 in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Red Sox are 7-1 in his Fenway starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-3-6

New York lost seven of last nine games; over is 5-2-1 in their last eight road games. Boston lost four of last six games; under is 5-1-1 in their last seven home games.

Blue Jays @ Tigers
Liriano is 2-2, 5.96 in his last four starts; over is 7-2 in his last nine. Toronto is 5-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-6-3

Fulmer is 3-0, 3.57 in his last three starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five. Detroit is 6-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-6-2

Blue Jays won four of last five road games; over is 4-1-1 in their last six games. Detroit is 3-6 in its last nine games; under is 4-1-2 in their last seven games.

Mariners @ White Sox
Hernandez is 1-1, 4.50 in his last three starts; over is 4-1-1 in his last six. Mariners are 0-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-4

Holland is 0-3, 10.00 in his last four starts; over is 10-3 in his last 13 starts. White Sox are 2-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-9-1

Mariners lost five of last eight games; over is 4-3 in their last seven games. Chicago lost five of last six games; over is 5-3 in their last eight home games.

Twins @ Astros
Santana is 2-3, 5.93 in his last five starts; under is 6-4-1 in his last 11. Twins are 2-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-9-3

Musgrove is 0-3, 9.15 in his last four starts, last three of which went over. Astros are 2-7 in his home starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 4-9-1

Twins lost seven of last nine road games; over is 8-4 in their last 12 games. Houston won seven of last nine games; over is 12-2 in their last 14 games.

Rangers @ Royals
Hamels is 2-0, 1.26 in his last two starts (over 6-1-1). Texas is 1-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-0-1

Duffy is 12, 7.02 in his last three starts; under is 8-3 in his last 11. Royals are 3-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-7-2

Rangers are 3-5 in last eight road games; under is 4-0-1 in their last five games. Kansas City lost its last four games; over is 4-2 in their last six home games.

Indians @ A’s
Kluber is 2-1, 1.22 in his last five starts; under is 3-0-1 in his last four. Indians are 3-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-7-1

Blackburn is 1-0, 1.38 in two starts for Oakland (over 1-1)— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-0-1

Indians are 9-3 in last 12 road games; under is 8-4-1 in their last 13 games. Oakland won five of last seven games; over is 4-3 in their last seven games.

Rays @ Angels
Cobb is 2-1, 2.79 in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Rays are 5-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-5-2

Ramirez is 2-2, 4.37 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Angels are 4-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-7-4

Rays won four of last five games; over is 3-2 in their last five road games. Angels are 3-8 in last 11 games; under is 7-1-1 in their last nine games.

Interleague

Cubs @ Orioles
Former Oriole Arrieta is 1-2, 5.40 in his last three starts; four of his last five starts stayed under. Cubs are 5-7 in his road starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 9-7-2

Miley is 1-3, 6.97 in his last four starts, which all stayed under. Orioles are 4-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-9-1

Cubs are 5-8 in last 13 games overall, 9-17 in last 26 road games; under is 11-3 in their last 14 road games. Baltimore lost five of last six home games; under is 4-2 in their last six home games.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
StL-Pitt: Lynn 8-10; Taillon 6-5
Wsh-Cin: Scherzer 12-6; Castillo 2-2
Col-NY: Chatwood 7-11; Lugo 3-2
LA-Mia: Wood 10-3; Urena 9-4
Az-Atl: Corbin 8-10; Foltynewicz 9-7
Phil-Mil: Nola 6-7; Nelson 10-8
SF-SD: Bumgarner 0-4; Chacin 9-9

American League
NY-Bos: Severino 8-9; Sale 13-5
Tor-Det: Liriano 9-5; Fulmer 10-7
Sea-Chi: Hernandez 4-5; Holland 6-11
Min-Hst: Santana 10-8; Musgrove 6-8
Tex-KC: Hamels 4-4; Duffy 6-7
Clev-A’s: Kluber 8-6; Blackburn 1-1
TB-LAA: Cobb 9-9; Ramirez 10-7

Interleague
Chi-Balt: Arrieta 9-9; Miley 9-9

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
StL-Pitt: Lynn 6-18; Taillon 2-11
Wsh-Cin: Scherzer 4-18; Castillo 1-4
Col-NY: Chatwood 4-18; Lugo 2-5
LA-Mia: Wood 1-13; Urena 2-13
Az-Atl: Corbin 10-18; Foltynewicz 2-16
Phil-Mil: Nola 3-13; Nelson 3-18
SF-SD: Bumgarner 1-4; Chacin 7-18

American League
NY-Bos: Severino 4-17; Sale 1-18
Tor-Det: Liriano 6-14; Fulmer 5-17
Sea-Chi: Hernandez 5-9; Holland 6-17
Min-Hst: Santana 4-18; Musgrove 3-14
Tex-KC: Hamels 4-8; Duffy 3-13
Clev-A’s: Kluber 3-14; Blackburn 0-2
TB-LAA: Cobb 3-18; Ramirez 9-17

Interleague
Chi-Balt: Arrieta 6-18; Miley 7-18

Umpires

National League
StL-Pitt: Last four Hudson games stayed under.
Wsh-Cin: Underdogs are 8-4 in last 12 Kellogg games.
Col-NY: Over is 8-3 in last 11 Segal games.
LA-Mia: Underdogs are 5-3 in last eight Wolf games.
Az-Atl: Under is 5-2 in last seven Nauert games.
Phil-Mil: Four of last five Danley games stayed under.
SF-SD: Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Reynolds games.

American League
NY-Bos: Last four Cederstrom games stayed under total.
Tor-Det: Over is 5-2 in last seven Fletcher games.
Sea-Chi: Under is 6-3 in last nine Carapazza games.
Min-Hst: Three of last four Tumpane games stayed under.
Tex-KC: Over is 10-4-1 in last 15 Wolcott games.
Clev-A’s: Over is 12-4-1 in last 17 Eddings games.
TB-LAA: Six of last seven Hoberg games went over.

Interleague

Chi-Balt: Underdogs are 7-5 in last 12 Holbrook games.

Interleague play
NL @ AL– 45-33 AL, favorites -$993
AL @ NL– 47-44 NL, favorites -$390
Total: 88-78 AL, favorites -$1,383

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 45-36-2
AL @ NL: Over 48-37-3
Total: Over 93-73-5

Armadillosports.com

Weekend Outlook
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Washington (52-36) at Cincinnati (39-49)

Scheduled Rotation: Gonzalez (7-4) vs. Adleman (5-6), TBA vs. Castillo (1-1), TBA vs. Bailey (2-2), TBA vs. Feldman (7-6)
Series Price: TBA

Are you kidding me with this Nationals lineup featuring the top three hitters in the National League? Daniel Murphy (.342), Ryan Zimmerman (.330) and Bryce Harper (.325) are 1-2-3. And to boot, they also have starters with two of the top three ERA's with Max Scherzer (2.1) and Gio Gonzalez (2.86). The only thing stopping them from being a great bet at 6/1 odds to win the World Series is their lousy bullpen which has an MLB-worst 5.20 ERA. You can bet that a few trades will be made for bullpen relief before the deadline at the end of the month. If you've been betting the Nationals all season you'd have to say they're overrated, or overpriced, because you would be down -1.1 units despite them being 16 games over .500. The Nats went 'over' in their last three before the break, but the Reds have been on an incredible 10-1-1 'under' run thanks to a vastly improved bullpen. Cincinnati has gone 23-20 at home, but lost two of three at Washington in their only meetings this season.

St. Louis (43-45) at Pittsburgh (42-47)

Scheduled Rotation: Leake (6-7) vs. Cole (7-7), Lynn (7-6) vs. Kuhl (3-6), Martinez (6-8 ) vs. TBA
Series Price: TBA

Both teams have been disappointing, but I'm sure they'd both gladly take where they're at with St. Louis being only 5.5 back out of first tied with the Cubs and Pittsburgh being only seven games back. Last season the Pirates finished five games under like they performed in the first-half and finished 25 games back because of the dominant Cubs. I love what Milwaukee has done, but that starting rotation isn't running away with the National League Central, sorry. The Cardinals are the team that could actually make a run just because of their pitching, which ranks sixth in baseball with a 3.97 ERA. The Cards are -9.5 units so far if betting daily, but I like them to be one of the more profitable teams in the second-half because of their pitching. Their hitting will come around. The Cards are on a run of going only 5-12 in their last 17 road games but they've beaten the Bucs in seven of the last nine meetings. The 'under' has been a good bet in this series -- seven of the past 10 -- and Pittsburgh has gone 19-6-2 to the 'under' in its last 27 games overall.

Los Angeles Dodgers (61-29) at Miami (41-46)

Scheduled Rotation: McCarthy (6-3) vs. Straily (7-4), Wood (10-0) vs. TBA, Hill 95-4) vs. TBA
Series Price: TBA

An interesting look for a Dodgers player to win MVP is rookie sensation Cody Bellinger, who has 18/1 odds. He's hit 25 homers and 58 RBI in 70 games and really has been the key to the Dodgers offense charging to the largest margin of victory (+1.8 ). That effort has helped them topple Colorado and Arizona and get 32 games over .500 which has them 7.5 games out front in the National League West. There's been several instances in baseball where a key player with lesser stats won because of the contribution to a team making the postseason. Only Fred Lynn and Ichiro Suzuki has won rookie-of-the-year and MVP in the same season. In 1981, Fernando-mania gave him the rookie-of-the-year award and Cy Young -- man, what a wild, magical strike-shortened season that was and it ended with a World Series title for Los Angeles. The Dodgers have MLB's best record and are now the 7/2 favorites (Bet $100 to win $350) at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook to win it all. Meanwhile, Miami is in the selling mode as the trade deadline approaches, but they have won 14 of its last 20 at home. For whatever reason over the years, these two squads score a lot when they hook-up going 42-16-6 to the 'over' in their last 64 meetings.

Arizona (53-36) at Atlanta (42-45)

Scheduled Rotation: Walker (10-4) vs. Dickey (6-5), Corbin (6-9) vs. Foltynewscz (7-5), Godley (3-3 vs. Garcia (2-7)
Series Price: TBA

Arizona has had the most rapidly dropped World Series odds from an opener of 100/1 down to 18/1. Its success stems from getting solid starts from the rotation. The club is No. 2 in baseball with the lowest ERA (3.43) behind the Dodgers (3.24) which is why they also have the most rapidly improved team rating. They've netted +15.2 units if you've bet them every day this season. Getting swept at home by the Dodgers before the break really slowed some of their momentum, but they haven't lost more than three straight all season and that's a testament to their starters. Paul Goldschimdt (.312, 20 HR, 67 RBI, 13 SB) also got back to his normal self in the first half after being sluggish in 2016. The Westgate is offering him as the 11/4 co-favorite with Joey Votto and Bryce Harper to win the 2017 NL Most Valuable Player award. Despite Arizona finishing the first-half going 1-5, they still ended up with a franchise-best first-half record. Atlanta should be applauded for hanging in there and battling after a rough start. They were nine games under .500 on May 10, but are now only three games back. The Braves need to clean up their act in games decided by five runs or more where they are 8-20. Despite the losing record, they do win a few with chunky prices and have netted +5.2 units on the season. R.A. Dickey is +4.8 units with the Braves going just 10-7 behind him. The Braves have gone 11-4-2 to the 'under' in their last 17 home games. Arizona has gone 35-17-1 to the 'under' in its last 53 road games.

NY Yankees (45-41) at Boston (50-39)

Scheduled Rotation: TBA vs. Pomeranz (9-4), TBA vs. Sale (11-4), TBA vs. Porcello (4-11), DH #2 TBA vs. Price (4-2)
Series Price: TBA

The Yankees stayed on top of the American League East for 51 days, but a seven-game losing streak in June helped contribute to their slide. At the same time, Boston has put it all together and now lead the Yankees by 3.5 games in the division. The Yankees are currently 20/1 to win the World Series, but they're not playing like a 20/1 squad lately. They're batting only .221 in their last 10 games and have gone 3-10 in their last 13 road games. They've had trouble with lefties all season, batting just .229 and they'll get three right out the gate with Drew Pomeranz, Chris Sale and David Price this weekend. The Yankees have won seven of the past eight meetings, but Boston is on a 13-5 run at home. Look for Boston to take this series and the Yankees to make a couple moves for pitching to stay in the AL Wild Card race.

Minnesota (45-43) at Houston (60-29)

Scheduled Rotation: Berrios (8-2) vs. Morton, Santana (10-6) vs. Musgrove (4-7), Gibson (5-7) vs. Fiers (5-4)
Series Price: TBA

Houston has been the best bet all season at +20.9 units, but Minnesota has been profitable as well at +5.2 units. The Astros have an MLB-leading .285 batting average and while going 8-3 in their last 11 they're batting .329. This team is actually getting better and they've been doing without ace pitcher Dallas Keuchel (neck), and he's scheduled to be back within two weeks. They're a short 9/2 price to win the World Series for a good reason. Amazingly, the Twins are still looking at postseason play being only one game out of the final wild card spot. They've stayed alive by going an impressive 25-15 on the road. The hot trend coming in to this series is the totals going 'over.' Houston has gone 12-3-1 to the 'over' in their last 16 games and the 'over' is 8-1-2 on their last 11 meetings with Minnesota. Houston pounded the Twins in a three-game sweep at Target Field in May where the combined score was 40-16.

Texas (43-45) at Kansas City (44-43)

Scheduled Rotation: Perez (4-6) vs. Hammel (4-8 ), Hamels (4-0) vs. Vargas (12-3), Darvish (6-8 ) vs. TBA
Series Price: TBA

The Royals find themselves only three games out of first in the mediocre American League Central, which is a huge accomplishment considering they started April with a 7-16 record and that included a nine-game losing streak. They got right back into the mix of things by going 17-9 in June aided by their bats finally waking up. Ian Kennedy has also been a big reason for the KC upswing with them winning five of his past six starts after losing eight of his first 10. Texas is only three games out of the Wild Card, but the standings would look a lot different if they could win some one-run games -- they're 6-14. The Rangers have won 13 of the past 16 meetings and the 'under' has gone 31-15-5 in the past 51 meetings.

Chicago Cubs (43-45) at Baltimore (42-46)

Scheduled Rotation: Montgomery (1-6) vs. Gausman (5-7), TBA vs. Miley (4-7), TBA vs. TBA
Series Price: TBA

Prior to the start of the season, the Cubs were 3/1 favorites to repeat as World Series champions, but now with a losing record at the break you can get 12/1 odds if you think they take control in the second half. The Orioles have made the playoffs three of the past five seasons and opened the season with plenty of respect at 20/1 to win the World Series, but now they're 200/1 as they sit in fourth-place. The bad news for Baltimore is when they hit the road where they're 17-30. However, they're pretty good at home at 25-16. The Cubs are 19-25 on the road this season, but the good news for Cubs fans is that no one has really taken control of the NL Central even though the Brewers closed out the first-half on a 9-2 run. This is a good test for both teams to maybe find their true identity and the Cubs rotation just got better by trading for Jose Quintana. Something to keep note of is that the Cubs have stayed 'under' in 21 of their last 28 road games while Baltimore has gone 9-4 to the 'under' in its last 13.

Saturday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Dodgers (7-0 past seven games, 26-4 past 30 overall)

The Dodgers picked up right where they left off, winning 6-4 in Miami to open the second half. That's seven victories in a row for Los Angeles, and now they'll run All-Star Alex Wood to the mound with his 10-0 record in tow. The Dodgers have won 10 of the past 11 starts by Wood, although they're just 4-10 over his past 14 outings on the road.They're also a dismal 2-6 in his past eight outings on the road against teams with a losing overall mark. However, they're 6-0 in his past six overall against teams with a losing record while the Dodgers are an impressive 29-10 across their past 39 against National League East foes.

Coldest team: Diamondbacks (1-6 past seven games, 3-9 past 12 overall)

While the Dodgers continue to roll in the National League West, their closest pursuers continue to struggle. The Colorado Rockies were annihilated 14-2 in New York by the Mets on Friday, while the Diamondbacks were nipped in Atlanta by a 4-3score. That's three losses in a row for the Snakes, and they have scored a total of just four runs during the span. In fact, the offense is averaging a dismal 2.4 runs per game over their past seven outings. While that's tremendous news for 'under' bettors, the once close NL West is being blown wide open by L.A. The Dodgers now hold an 8 1/2-game lead over the D-Backs, and 10 1/2 over the Rockies.

Hottest pitcher: Max Scherzer, Nationals (10-5, 2.10 ERA)

Scherzer, the major league leader in ERA, will make his first start of the second half. He has been nearly unhittable with a .163 opponent batting average and 0.78 WHIP, also league-leading marks. While some might not be wowwed by his 10-5 record, it's mostly due to a lack of run support earlier in the season. He has rolled up 173 strikeouts over 128 1/3 innings to lead the National League. He'll be on the road in Cincinnati on Saturday, and that's even worse for the opposition. He is 3-3 with a 2.96 ERA overeight starts at home, while going 7-2 with a 1.47 ERA across 10 road outings with both of his complete games coming away from home. The opposition is hitting just .140 against him away from home across 73 2/3 innings with 98 strikeouts.

Coldest pitcher: Patrick Corbin, Diamondbacks (6-9, 4.71 ERA)

Like the rest of his teammates, Corbin has struggled lately. He has posted a respectable 5-3 record with a 3.15 ERA in 11 starts at home, but he has been brutal on the road. The southpaw is 1-6 with a 7.57 ERA over seven road starts with the opposition hitting a robust .331 against him. Homers have been a big issue, too, as he has yielded just six homers across 65 2/3 innings at Chase Field while serving up 10 bombs in just 35 2/3 road frames. Perhaps he snaps out of it against the Braves. While he hasn't faced Atlanta this season, he is 2-0 with 15 2/3 scoreless innings against the Braves across two starts and a relief appearance since the start of the 2014 season.

Biggest UNDER run: Diamondbacks (7-1-1 past nine overall)

The Diamondbacks have had a power outage lately, and those struggles on offense have been putting money in the pockets of total bettors. The under is 7-1-1 over Arizona's past nine overall, including 5-1-1 in their past seven against National League East foes. The under is also 36-17-1 over their past 54 road outings, including 3-1-1 in their past five on the road against teams with a losing record. However, the over is 9-3 over Corbin's past 12 starts on the road, and 10-3-1 in his past 14 assignments against NL East foes. The over is also 18-3-1 in Corbin's past 22 road outings against teams with a losing overall mark.

Biggest OVER run: Astros (9-0-1 past 10 overall)

Like the Dodgers, the American League's best team also didn't skip a beat despite the four-day All-Star break. The Astros mashed the Twins by a 10-5 count for another 'over' result. The over is a perfect 4-0 in Houston's past four at Minute Maid Park, 6-1-3 in their past 10 against AL Central clubs and 18-5-4 across their past 27 games following a victory. The over has also been a frequent happening with Joe Musgrove on the hill, going 5-2 over his past seven, including 5-1 over his past six against teams with a winning overall mark.

Matchup to watch: Athletics vs. Indians

The Indians stumbled out of the gate in the second half, getting bounced by the Athletics 5-0 in Friday's series opener. Cleveland is hopeful All-Star Corey Kluber will continue to stay hot, pitching them back into the win column. The Indians are 8-3 across Klubot's past 11 road outings, 23-9 over his past 32 overall and 11-2 in his past 13 assignments agaisnt teams with a losing record. In addition, the Indians are 4-0 in Kluber's past four assignments against AL West foes. The Indians have dropped five of their past six at O.co Coliseum, with the under going 18-7-1 in the past 26 meetings in Oaktown. The under is also 3-0-1 in Kluber's past four against the A's.

Betcha didn’t know: JC Ramirez entered the 2017 season with zero career starts in the majors, but he has excelled in the role for the Halos and is actually the team leader with eight victories. He allowed two hits across six scoreless frames last time out against the Rangers, and he turned back the Rays in St. Petersburg on May 22 in his last starts against Tampa Bay. He gave up just two runs and six hits over 6 2/3 innings in that outing. Ramirez has struggled at home, however, going just 1-4 with a 5.44 ERA over nine appearances (eight starts) with 10 homers allowed. He is 7-3 with a 3.60 ERA across 11 appearances (nine starts) on the road.

Biggest public favorite: RedSox (-175) vs. Yankees

Biggest public underdog: Rangers (+125) at Royals

Biggest line move: Reds (+185 to +160) vs. Nationals

MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros

Sometimes a team just has another teams number. That certainly applies to the Houston Astros when it comes to the Minnesota Twins. After last night's 10-5 victory the Stros enter Saturday's contest with 9 wins, 1 loss the past 10 meetings.

However, backing Stros with Joe Musgrove on the hill comes at great risk. Over his last three starts, the hurler has allowed 6 yard-ball, 18 runs in just 15 innings and heads to the mound with a 2-7 Team Start Record in front of the home audience. On the other side, Twins Santana who threw his MLB-leading fourth complete game in his final start before the break has a 4-1 Team Start Record vs Astros and Twins have been a solid choice with him tossing in an opposing park (6-2)

MLB Picks of the Day
By Zabo Jones
Bangthebook.com

MLB Favorite of the day: Washington Nationals -176

The Nationals and Reds are playing at Great American Ballpark tonight, with Max Scherzer and Luis Castillo starting. The Nationals probably don’t have to do too much to ensure that they win the NL East, with the only team with even a theoretical chance being the Braves at this point. Meanwhile, the Reds are in a strange rebuild, in which they don’t have any effective starting pitchers, but a plethora of good position players, many of whom I imagine will be traded.

Max Scherzer is of course an amazing pitcher, I don’t think there is any question about that. What I don’t think many people realize is just how historic his strikeout rates are. Scherzer has the fifth highest strikeout rate for an individual’s career, and for a single season, he’s sitting at ninth right now. Randy Johnson occupies much of the top ten, so Scherzer is in great company. The Reds are pretty good at avoiding strikeouts, but there’s no way to avoid them entirely against Scherzer. So much of the value that the Reds have extracted from their position players is thanks to their ability to make contact, and get on base at a high rate. It’s just really tough to see them maximize these skills against one of the most unique pitchers in the MLB, so I like the Nationals in this game.

MLB Underdog of the day: Tampa Bay Rays +101

Mike Trout has returned from injury finally, and any baseball fan should be excited. One of the interesting things I’ve seen this year is just how much attention Aaron Judge has earned (deservedly), and comparing in to how much attention Trout got. I think a lot of it is just how amazing Judge is at hitting homeruns. Regardless, both deserve attention, and I’m excited to see if Trout could potentially propel the Angels into a real playoff chase in the American League Wild Card.

The Rays are going to be starting Alex Cobb who has been a really nice pitcher for Tampa Bay. So far this season he has an ERA of 3.75, and while his peripherals are a bit worse, the Rays also have a pretty good defense that will of course result in better defense independent stats. The biggest concern that I have related to Cobb is the lack of strikeouts, but in his past his strikeout numbers have been quite a bit better. But the reality is that he hasn’t made any vast changes, outside of using his curveball quite a bit more, while reducing his changeup usage. I think it’s likely that his peripheral stats will begin to improve as the season wears on. If he does manage to strike more batters out, I think it’s actually possible he could have a low 3s ERA for the remainder of the season.

Starting for the Angels is going to be JC Ramirez. I don’t think that there’s too much to get excited about relating to Ramirez, but he’s fine as a piece of rotation depth for the Angels. The only thing that Ramirez has really outperformed in relation to his projections is innings pitched, which isn’t surprising given the injury problems that the Angels have had, especially at the front end. Ultimately, I like the Rays as the better team, with the better starter. I love Mike Trout, but I don’t think that he pushes the Angels to be better than the Rays. I don’t have any totals picks today, so these are going to be my only two picks.

MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Chicago (-135) at Baltimore; Total: 10

We’ll skip down to the 7 p.m. hour for our first matchup, as the Chicago Cubs and Baltimore Orioles continue their weekend interleague set. The Cubs and Orioles combined for 17 runs on Friday night, with the Cubs eventually taking down a 9-8 decision. Runs could be on the menu for tonight as well with Jake Arrieta up against Wade Miley.

We’ve talked a lot about Arrieta this season. Both his velocity and command are down according to the numbers, which has led to a 4.35 ERA and a 4.17 FIP. His 3.98 xFIP suggests that better fortunes may be coming, but that also implies that he’ll find some command at some point. Arrieta has struck out 102 in 101.1 innings of work, but he’s also allowed 14 home runs. He allowed 16 in 197.1 innings last year and just 10 during his Cy Young season in 2015 across 229 frames. Just about everybody has been affected by the major spike in dingers this year, but it has certainly affected Arrieta more than some. He’s seen a drop in his ground ball percentage from 52.6 percent to 45.7 percent. This is a bad year for that and Arrieta has paid the price accordingly.

Speaking of bad years, Wade Miley is having one of those. Miley has a 4.97 ERA with a 5.04 FIP and a 4.53 xFIP. Over Miley’s first seven starts, he posted a 2.45 ERA with a 3.83 FIP and a 3.98 xFIP. He had 43 strikeouts in 36.2 innings of work. From May 16 on, Miley has a 6.75 ERA with a 5.90 FIP and a 4.91 xFIP. He only has 37 strikeouts in 52 innings and has allowed 10 home runs out of his 76 hits in that span. Miley’s command is completely gone with a .365 BABIP against and that obscene 22.7 percent HR/FB%.

There really aren’t many reasons to buy Miley in this start. Arrieta has his red flags and problems as well, but they aren’t nearly as numerous as the ones with Miley. The Cubs are chalky today, but they’re the preferred side once again.

St. Louis at Pittsburgh (-130); Total: 8

The market has been fading Lance Lynn a lot lately. Will that happen again on Saturday? We’ll have to see, as the trade candidate takes the hill against Pirates right-hander Jameson Taillon. Lynn has a 3.61 ERA with a 5.19 FIP and a 4.60 xFIP, so the market has been betting on some positive regression out of him. Lynn has a really strange stat line, with a decent K%, a slightly elevated BB%, a terrible home run rate, and a .220 BABIP against. You normally don’t see .220 BABIPs with neutral batted ball distributions like Lynn’s, with a 42.1 percent GB%, a 40 percent FB%, and a 17.9 percent LD%. BABIPs like that are reserved for guys with 45 percent FB% usually. In that respect, Lynn has probably gotten a little bit lucky this season. Lynn, who is pitching his first full season since Tommy John surgery, has had two big blow-up starts with seven runs allowed accounting for 14 of his 41 earned runs. In those other 16 starts, he has a 2.64 ERA. Does that mean that there’s a little bit of hidden value in Lynn? We’ll have to see how long he can keep outpitching his advanced metrics.

Last night’s loss was a really tough one for the Cardinals with another bullpen meltdown. But, they say that momentum is tomorrow’s starting pitcher. If that’s truly the case, Jameson Taillon is a good one to have on the mound. Taillon has a 2.73 ERA with a 3.50 FIP and a 3.71 xFIP on the season. Taillon has improved upon the strikeout rate from his rookie season last year. He’s issuing a few more walks, but he’s been extremely poised in high-leverage spots with an 83.8 percent LOB%. Given his .322 BABIP, it’s entirely possible that his LOB% drops a bit in the near future, but Taillon clearly has the chops and the command to pitch at this level.

These two teams have been pretty inconsistent and I was hesitant to even include this game today because of that. If I had to roll with something here, it would be to lay the price with the chalk and take the Pirates.

Colorado at New York (-110); Total: 9

That wasn’t the second half opener that the Rockies were hoping for. Jon Gray and the Rockies bullpen took it on the chin from a pedestrian Mets offense and Colorado suffered yet another defeat. They’ll get back after it today with Tyler Chatwood taking the mound against Seth Lugo.

Chatwood has a 4.42 ERA with a 4.89 FIP and a 4.29 xFIP on the season. He is what he is. An extreme ground ball guy with subpar control. He’s generally able to manage the walks because he induces a lot of double plays and force plays that can cut down the lead runner. It is a bit surprising to see a 56.4 percent GB% accompanied by a .275 BABIP. Chatwood’s career BABIP against is .301, but it was .286 last season, so maybe he’s just found better ways to stay off the barrel. My problem with Chatwood and guys of that ilk is that it’s very difficult to handicap them because their performance is based on BABIP luck. You can say that it’s the case for a lot of guys. While that’s largely true, obviously it matters a little bit more for ground ball pitchers. Chatwood has also been allowing home runs, which isn’t good.

Seth Lugo’s season got off to a slow start and he’s been fighting to get to a position where he feels comfortable. Lugo has a 4.59 ERA with a 4.41 FIP and a 4.78 xFIP on the season. Like Chatwood, he allows a lot of balls in play. Unlike Chatwood, he doesn’t exacerbate the problem by allowing free baserunners via the walk. Lugo allowed six runs on 10 hits on July 4 to the Nationals to blow up his season numbers, but we’re talking about such a small sample size that I don’t quite know what he is as of yet.

Fading the Rockies on the road has been extremely profitable lately. If you want to go that route today, you certainly can. This game has too many variables for me to invest.

Arizona at Atlanta (-110); Total: 9.5

Patrick Corbin and Mike Foltynewicz square off at SunTrust Park as the Diamondbacks and Braves continue their weekend set. Corbin owns a 4.71 ERA with a 4.24 FIP and a 3.86 xFIP. He’s one of the few Diamondbacks pitchers to not get a whole lot of assistance from what is a very good defensive team. Corbin has a .346 BABIP against. He also has a 16.8 percent HR/FB%, so the problem isn’t the defense, it’s the guy making the pitches. He hasn’t shown a whole lot of command this season.

That being said, Corbin, since allowing 13 runs over nine innings in two starts on May 28 and June 2, ended his first half with a 3.34 ERA, a 2.40 FIP, and a 2.89 xFIP over his last 35 innings. He only allowed 15 runs, 13 earned, with 41 strikeouts against 10 walks. Corbin pitched around a .376 BABIP, likely with the help of that increased strikeout rate. He also allowed only two home runs in that span. He relied a little bit more on his two-seamer and slider per PITCHf/x data and those adjustments could have been a big key in his streak of solid outings. The question is whether or not he can carry it over from the Break.

Mike Foltynewicz has a 3.77 ERA with a 4.63 FIP and a 4.55 xFIP. He has average K/BB rates and a BABIP that falls right in range. He’s basically an average pitcher with an ERA propped up by a 79.8 percent LOB%. If there’s some regression in that, his ERA will likely creep up into the 4.20 range, much like it did last season at 4.31. I’m not a big believer in Foltynewicz, but there is value in a guy that is truly average given how many pitchers this season are not.

This is a tough game for me. I want to fade the Diamondbacks coming out of the Break because of some of their sequencing stats and the fact that I think they have overachieved quite a bit thus far. On the other hand, I have a hard time backing Foltynewicz. It’s a stay away, but there are compelling angles on each side.

Texas at Kansas City (-125); Total: 9

A bad number went up on the overnights at Bookmaker, as the Rangers opened a slight favorite on the road with Cole Hamels on the hill. The market has since corrected that number and Danny Duffy is anywhere from -120 to -125 in the marketplace. Hamels has a 3.51 ERA with a 4.61 FIP and a 4.98 xFIP, but the underlying metrics tell some kind of story. Hamels only made eight starts prior to the Break, with just 28 strikeouts in 51.1 innings of work. He got very fortunate to carry a .223 BABIP, which is 62 points below his career average. He limited home runs, so that was good, but the lack of swings and misses remains a concern. A search party has been sent out to find Hamels’s changeup, but has come back empty-handed thus far.

After allowing seven runs to Cleveland on June 26, Hamels made a couple of quality starts against the White Sox and Angels with just two runs allowed on five hits with a 12/1 K/BB ratio in 14.1 innings of work. We’ll have to see if those are building blocks or if they are outliers.

Danny Duffy has a 3.76 ERA, a 3.76 FIP, and a 4.66 xFIP. Duffy has pretty average numbers across the map, except for his HR/FB%, which sits at just 7.6 percent. That is a very good number for any pitcher this season and Duffy’s ability to keep the ball in the park has made up for his lack of swings and misses. Duffy struck out well over a batter per inning last season. This season, he’s nowhere close.

I think I’m going to lean towards the under in this one. Duffy has been stingy with the long ball and Texas’s offensive claim to fame is mostly the long ball. Adrian Beltre has given the team a more balanced dynamic, but many of the Rangers’ most dangerous hitters are left-handed. Lefties are only batting .203/.266/.271 against Duffy. Hamels has such an extensive track record that I’m confident that he can get things figured out, even if the stuff is in decline with his age and workload. If you want to eliminate the bullpens, which makes sense, you can try the first five under.

San Francisco (-145) at San Diego; Total: 7.5

Madison Bumgarner makes his return to the Giants rotation after a dirt bike accident cost him nearly three months of the season. He was off to a promising start with a 3.00/2.59/3.48 pitcher slash over his first 27 innings, but then the unfortunate accident happened and the Giants season went down the tubes.

This is a tough situation to handicap. My personal belief is that Bumgarner will be a man possessed in his quest to make up for his transgression. That means extra pressure on the soon-to-be 28-year-old. Pressure hasn’t bothered Bumgarner in the past, so maybe that’s irrelevant. While Bumgarner is elite, he’s also coming back after being out for three months. His command was a bit spotty in four rehab starts. We’ll have to see how this whole thing plays out.

Jhoulys Chacin has a 4.32 ERA with a 4.41 FIP and a 4.17 xFIP. His numbers are pretty average across the board, though he has increased his GB% this season, which is always good in today’s offensive environment. He could be a sought after trade piece as teams look to accumulate starting pitcher depth at the Trade Deadline. Chacin hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a start since May 23. In fact, Chacin has allowed 23 of his 49 earned runs in just three of his 18 starts. Those three outliers give him a 4.32 ERA, but he has a 2.54 ERA across those other 15 starts. It’s possible that there’s a little bit of hidden value in Chacin. We obviously can’t eliminate those bad starts from the equation, but they happen to just about everybody. Starts like that skew just how consistent Chacin has been.

I won’t be taking the Padres here against Bumgarner, but if Chacin still hangs around in San Diego, or goes to another place, he could be a guy to consider for some value.

MLB Daily Line Drive
By: Covers.com

Double-Play Picks

Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins (+155, 8.5)

The Dodgers picked up right where they left off in the first half of the season, topping the Marlins 6-4 in their first game back from the All-Star break and extending their winning streak to seven games. Los Angeles looks to make it eight in a row and take the series from the Marlins when Game 2 goes tonight in Miami.

The Dodgers won’t make it any easier on the Fish in the second game of this three-game weekend set as they send arguably their hottest starter to the bump and we’re not talking about Clayton Kershaw for once.

We’re talking of course, about veteran southpaw Alex Wood. The 26-year-old has been outstanding since joining the Dodgers rotation. Wood is 9-0 with a 1.79 ERA and a 0.942 WHIP since taking the mound every fifth day and Los Angeles is 10-0 in his last 10 starts overall.

The crazy part is he’s been getting even better as the season wears along. In his last four starts he has an ERA of 1.00, a WHIP of 0.704, while racking up 30 strikeouts.
The Marlins will counter with Jose Urena. The young right-hander has been one of the Marlins’ better starters this season going 7-3 with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.216 WHIP, but has had a bit of a tougher time over his last three starts, going 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA. Urena also hasn’t faced anyone that can mash like this Dodgers lineup, who have scored 6.2 runs per game in their last 12 road games.

Now the Dodgers don’t show much value on the moneyline today at -190, but they are also 7-3 on the runline in Wood’s last 10 starts.

Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-110)

Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals (-125, 9)

The Rangers and Royals open their second halves of the season in a battle of two teams in the midst of the American League Wild Card race. It was Texas who struck first with a 5-3 victory on Friday and will look to win the series with a win in Kansas City on Saturday night.

The Rangers are 44-45 after the win and sit two games behind the Yankees for the second Wild Card spot in the AL, while the Royals dropped to 44-44 and 1.5 games back with the loss.

Texas has stated they may become sellers at the deadline and are willing to listen to offers for Yu Darvish and Saturday’s starter Cole Hamels.
Hamels spent most of the season on the DL due to an oblique strain. The veteran lefty got rocked in his first start back, but since then has begun to regain his old form (see Streaking Starter below).

Hamels faces Royals southpaw Danny Duffy, who has had a solid season for Kansas City despite his recent struggles. Luckily for Duffy and KC, he will make his first start of the second half at home, where he has been very good.

Duffy is 2-2 with a 2.76 ERA and a 1.188 WHIP in five starts at Kaufman Stadium this season. Most importantly for this game, Duffy is great at keeping the ball in the ball park, only allowing seven home runs this year. Something the Rangers rely on.

Texas ranks fifth in runs this season thanks to the long ball. They have hit the third most homers, but are the fourth worst hitting team in terms of average.
Meanwhile, Kansas City ranks 26th in runs and OPS and 21st in batting average.

Pick: Under 9

Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 87-77-8

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Cole Hamels, Texas Rangers (4-0, 3.51 ERA, $-5)

The Texas Rangers might not be waving the white flag yet, but they’re definitely talking about it. Reports came out this week that the Rangers will listen to offers for Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish if the team doesn’t make strides before the July 31st trade deadline.

Hamels takes the mound tonight not only looking for a win but to increase his trade value to World Series contenders. A strained right oblique muscle caused the lefty to miss eight weeks of the first half, but if his last two trips to the mound are any indication he’s rounding into form.

Over his last two starts, Hamels is 2-0 with a 1.26 ERA, .4186 WHIP in 14.1 innings and has only walked one batter to go along with 12 strikeouts. Every contender could use this in their rotation. Hamels and the Rangers are +108 road dogs against the Kansas City Royals.

Slumping: Joe Musgrove, Houston Astros (4-7, 6.04 ERA, $-468)

It seems like it would be difficult to struggle on a team as good as the Astros, but that is exactly what is happening to Joe Musgrove.

The right-hander is 4-7 with a 6.04 ERA this season and the last three games have been even more of a struggle, where he is 0-2 with a massive 10.80 ERA with a WHIP near 2.000. He takes the mound Saturday at home against the Twins, with Houston currently a -160 fave.

Saturday's Top Trends

* Diamondbacks are 1-11 in Patrick Corbin's last 12 road starts. D-backs -105 @ Braves.
* Under is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings between the Blue Jays and Tigers. O/U: 9.5.
* Twins are 0-7 in the last seven meetings in Houston. Twins +150.
* Rockies are 2-12 in their last 14 road games. Rockies -105 @ Mets.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

According to the forecast precipitation won’t be an issue anywhere across Major League Baseball, everything should start on time and won’t be delayed.

The Wind may be a factor at Oakland Coliseum for tonight’s game between the A’s and Indians. There is an 11-13 mile per hour wind blowing out to right-center. The total is currently sitting at 8.

Ump Of The Day

Gary Cederstrom: Cederstrom will be calling balls and strikes this evening at Fenway Park and that is troublesome news for fans/backers of the New York Yankees. Over the first half of the season, Cederstrom ranks second among umpires in home team money. The home team has won 14 of his 18 starts (77.8 percent) behind the plate and a blind $100 wager on the home team in all of those starts would have profited $987 thus far.

Chris Sale and the Red Sox are -170 home chalk this afternoon.