MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, October 10th, 2016 from various handicappers and websites.
CLEVELAND (96 - 67) at BOSTON (93 - 71) - 4:05 PM
JOSH TOMLIN (R) vs. CLAY BUCHHOLZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 14-23 (-15.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
CLEVELAND is 4-12 (-10.2 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
CLEVELAND is 96-67 (+10.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TOMLIN is 19-10 (+8.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TOMLIN is 14-6 (+9.7 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
TOMLIN is 26-12 (+13.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 242-247 (-34.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 30-30 (-9.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
BOSTON is 124-120 (-31.7 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 15-17 (-9.9 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
BOSTON is 149-139 (-14.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 89-91 (-30.1 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 4-12 (-10.6 Units) against the money line after getting shut out over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 60-63 (-22.1 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 35-41 (-18.5 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 27-39 (-19.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
BUCHHOLZ is 28-39 (-19.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
BUCHHOLZ is 8-13 (-9.7 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
BUCHHOLZ is 13-21 (-13.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
BUCHHOLZ is 5-13 (-12.9 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 4-4 (-0.2 Units) against CLEVELAND this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.5 Units)
JOSH TOMLIN vs. BOSTON since 1997
TOMLIN is 2-3 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 4.08 and a WHIP of 1.185.
His team's record is 3-3 (+1.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-4. (-2.2 units)
CLAY BUCHHOLZ vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
BUCHHOLZ is 2-2 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 4.85 and a WHIP of 1.195.
His team's record is 3-4 (-1.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-4. (-1.9 units)
WASHINGTON (95 - 68) at LA DODGERS (92 - 71) - 4:05 PM
GIO GONZALEZ (L) vs. KENTA MAEDA (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 6-1 (+5.8 Units) against WASHINGTON this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)
GIO GONZALEZ vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
GONZALEZ is 3-1 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 1.69 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 3-2 (+0.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-2. (+1.0 units)
KENTA MAEDA vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
No recent starts.
CHICAGO CUBS (105 - 58) at SAN FRANCISCO (88 - 77) - 9:35 PM
JAKE ARRIETA (R) vs. MADISON BUMGARNER (L)
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1593-1681 (-260.1 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 176-203 (-50.8 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1536-1594 (-234.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 769-824 (-186.4 Units) against the money line after a win since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 63-45 (+21.9 Units) against the money line in October games since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 47-32 (+19.7 Units) against the money line in playoff games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 28-9 (+17.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 121-70 (+26.5 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
ARRIETA is 28-7 (+16.7 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons
ARRIETA is 16-3 (+11.5 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
ARRIETA is 28-7 (+16.7 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ARRIETA is 60-40 (+20.3 Units) against the money line in night games since 1997.
ARRIETA is 16-3 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 88-77 (-9.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 19-31 (-20.4 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 85-77 (-12.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 55-55 (-14.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 58-54 (-17.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO CUBS is 6-3 (+2.1 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.6 Units)
JAKE ARRIETA vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
ARRIETA is 4-2 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 1.81 and a WHIP of 0.907.
His team's record is 4-2 (+2.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-4. (-2.7 units)
MADISON BUMGARNER vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
BUMGARNER is 8-2 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 2.25 and a WHIP of 1.025.
His team's record is 9-3 (+4.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-3. (+3.6 units)
WASHINGTON vs. LA DODGERS
Washington is 2-8 SU in their last 10 games when playing LA Dodgers
Washington is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 9 games at home
CLEVELAND vs. BOSTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games when playing Cleveland
CHI CUBS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chi Cubs's last 9 games
San Francisco is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing Chi Cubs
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs
StatFox Super Situations
CHICAGO CUBS at SAN FRANCISCO
Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CHICAGO CUBS) after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, a top-level team (>=62%) playing a team with a winning record 90-38*over the last 5 seasons.(70.3% | 39.0 units*) 16-11 this year. (59.3% | 1.6 units)
CLEVELAND at BOSTON
Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CLEVELAND) below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.70 to 5.70) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start 44-28 over the last 5 seasons. ( 61.1% | 28.8 units ) 11-11 this year. ( 50.0% | 3.3 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends
CHICAGO CUBS at SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-1 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in Home games vs. teams whose hitters draw 4 walks or more/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was: SAN FRANCISCO (3.7) , OPPONENT (1.8 )
Dodgers @ Nationals
Gonzalez is 0-2, 8.31 in his last three starts; he is 0-0, 3.21 in three postseason starts. Nationals are 2-9 in his last 11 road starts. Gonzalez beat LA 8-1 on July 20, allowing one run in six IP. Over is 5-2-1 in his last eight starts.
Madea is in his first MLB season; he is 2-3, 5.56 in his last five starts. Over is 9-5 in his last 14 starts. Dodgers won his last six home starts.- he hasn’t faced Washington.
Dodgers are in playoffs for 4th year in a row- their last World Series title was in 1988. LA is 6-2 vs Washington this season; they’re 11-1 in last 12 home games. Nationals won three of last four road games; they’re in playoffs for third time in last five years.
Roberts is a rookie manager. Baker is 20-27 as postseason manager; he won NL pennant is 2002 with the Giants.
Giants @ Cubs
Arrieta is 2-3, 5.22 in his last five starts; over is 7-2 in his last nine starts. He is 2-1, 3.66 in three postseason starts. Chicago is 11-4 in his road starts. He is 1-1, 2.77 against the Giants this year.
Bumgarner is 2-0, 2.45 in his last four starts, he is 2-0, 1.32 against the Cubs this season, 8-3, 1.94 in 15 postseason games (13 starts). Under is 3-1 in his last four starts. Giants are 10-6 in his home starts.
Giants are 3-6 against the Cubs this year; they’ve won five of last seven games overall (five of last six at home), after a dreadful second half of season. Chicago won 11 of its last 14 games, five of its last seven on foreign soil.
Bochy won three World Series in last six years; he is 43-32 as a postseason manager. Madden got Rays to ’08 World Series; he is 19-22 as a postseason manager.
Cleveland @ Boston
Tomlin is 2-1, 2.10 in his last four starts; his last five starts stayed under. Indians are 10-5 in his road starts. He allowed three runs in 7.2 IP in his only start vs Boston this year. This is his first postseason appearance.
Buchholz is 0-0, 4.21 in five postseason starts, which suggests a bullpen game here. He is 4-0, 2.41 in his last six starts overall; under is 8-3 in his last 11 starts. Boston is 4-7 in his home starts.
Red Sox are in playoffs for just second time in last seven years; they’re 4-4 vs Cleveland this year; they lost seven of last eight games overall, which followed their 11-game win streak. Indians are in playoffs for just third time since 2001; they’re 10-4 in last 14 games overall.
Obvious subplot here is that Francona is manager who ended Boston’s championship drought when he won 2004 World Series, then won again with Sox in ‘07. Francona has a 29-18 career record in playoff games. Farrell is 11-6 as a postseason manager, with a World Series title in 2013.
Armadillosports.com
Monday's MLB Division Series Betting Preview
Covers.com
Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals (-150, 7.5)
Daniel Murphy is picking up right where he left off last postseason and hopes to stay hot when his Washington Nationals visit the Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday afternoon for Game 3 of their National League Division Series. Murphy has recorded four hits in the first two games, including three in Sunday’s 5-2 victory, after batting .328 with seven home runs and 11 RBIs in 14 contests for the New York Mets during last year’s playoffs.
Murphy knocked in a pair of runs and Jose Lobaton, a .226 lifetime hitter, belted a three-run homer as the Nationals evened the best-of-five series, which resumes clear across the country less than 24 hours after Mark Melancon retired the final Dodgers batter on Sunday. Gio Gonzalez brings a 3-1 lifetime record and 1.69 ERA against Los Angeles into his fourth career playoff start while Kenta Maeda makes his postseason debut for the Dodgers. Los Angeles stranded 12 baserunners in Sunday’s loss and needs others to step up outside of Corey Seager and Justin Turner. Seager has homered in each contest of the series and Turner is 4-for-6 with a blast, extending his playoff hitting streak to seven games.
WEATHER REPORT: Umm, it's Los Angeles - of course it's going to be sunny with temperatures in the 80's and virtually no wind. There is a 5 percent chance of rain but don't count on that long shot coming through.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Nationals LH Gio Gonzalez (11-11, 4.57 ERA) vs. Dodgers RH Kenta Maeda (16-11, 3.48)
Gonzalez struggled in September, going 1-2 with a 7.43 ERA and completing more than five innings just once in five starts. The 31-year-old Floridian went 4-6 on the road during the regular season but did win six of his nine decisions after the All-Star break and beat the Dodgers on July 20. Gonzalez has had solid success against Adrian Gonzalez (2-for-17), Yasiel Puig (1-for-11) and Turner (2-for-19).
Maeda made 32 starts in his first season in the majors and performed well overall, but he completed seven innings just twice and was pounded in his last two outings. The 28-year-old native of Japan gave up eight runs in 6 2/3 frames over the last two turns and owns a 4.25 ERA since the All-Star break after posting a 2.95 beforehand. Maeda, who will be facing Washington for the first time, is 7-5 with a 3.22 ERA at home.
TRENDS:
* Nationals are 1-6 in Gonzalez' last 7 road starts.
* Dodgers are 6-0 in Maeda's last 6 home starts.
* Under is 21-5 in Nationals last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles.
CONSENSUS: The public is leaning toward the home favorite Dodgers with 66 percent of the picks and Over 7.5 is grabbing a surprising 82 percent of the totals wagers.
Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox (-145, 9.5)
Cleveland Indians manager Terry Francona is pushing all the right buttons with his pitching staff in the American League Division Series and has a chance to clinch in a place that holds some special memories. Francona, who guided the Red Sox to two World Series championships as manager, tries to advance the Indians to the AL Championship Series when they visit Boston for Game 3 in the best-of-five set Sunday.
Francona used Andrew Miller and Cody Allen each for a season-high 40 pitches in a 5-4 Game 1 victory and rode ace Corey Kluber, who missed time at the end of the season with a quad injury, for seven innings in Game 2's 6-0 triumph. "I think everybody is just playing baseball," Francona told reporters. "I think that's what we know how to do. I think when you start thinking about other things that maybe we're not so good at, we try to stay away from that and just play the game, and play the game as well as we can and see what happens." The Red Sox led the league in runs scored and batting average during the regular season but struck out 22 times in the first two games and watched stars Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts, David Ortiz, Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr. go a combined 4-for-36. "We're getting our (butts) beat," Ortiz told reporters. "Nothing to celebrate. It's part of the game, man, but I know we're better than that."
WEATHER REPORT: After Sunday's rain out the weather should be much improved Monday evening with clear skies and temperatures in the low-60's. Wind will likely be a factor with a 10-15 mph wind blowing in from left-center field.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Indians RH Josh Tomlin (13-9, 4.40 ERA) vs. Red Sox RH Clay Buchholz (8-10, 4.78)
Tomlin was an unlikely candidate to start a postseason game for Cleveland when he was struggling to get outs in August and was briefly demoted to the bullpen, but a strong finish and injuries to Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar pushed him up to Game 3 status. The 31-year-old Texan posted a 1.75 ERA in his final four appearances during the regular season, capped by a win at Kansas City that helped guarantee the Indians homefield advantage in the ALDS. Tomlin is 2-3 with a 5.49 ERA in seven career games (six starts) against Boston, including a tough-luck loss Aug. 15 when he allowed three runs in 7 2/3 innings.
Buchholz is another unlikely Game 3 starter after being pushed back to the bullpen because of ineffectiveness earlier in the season but - like Tomlin - a strong closing stretch convinced the team to push him up. Buchholz surrendered three runs and 11 hits in 19 innings over his final three regular-season starts. The 32-year-old Texan is 2-2 with a 4.85 ERA in seven career starts against Cleveland but struggled in two chances this season, allowing a combined nine runs (eight earned) and seven walks in 10 innings.
TRENDS:
* Indians are 13-3 in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Red Sox are 5-1 in Buchholz' last 6 starts.
* Under is 5-0-1 in Tomlin's last 6 starts overall.
* Under is 12-3-1 in Red Sox last 16 overall.
CONSENSUS: The public is favoring the home favorite Red Sox at a rate of 68 percent and Over 9.5 is grabbing the majority of the totals picks with 57 percent.
San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs (-130, 6)
Madison Bumgarner looks to continue his impressive postseason success and keep the San Francisco Giants alive when they host the Chicago Cubs on Monday in Game 3 of their National League Division Series. The left-hander is 5-1 with a save and a 0.88 ERA in eight playoff contests over his past two postseasons (2014 and 16) after shutting out the New York Mets 3-0 in the Wild-Card Game last Wednesday.
“We’ve got a lot of confidence with him on the mound,” San Francisco catcher Buster Posey told reporters of his battery mate, who won both starts against the Cubs in 2016. “We’ll try to go out and win that one and go from there.” The Giants, who face elimination after winning 11 straight postseason series, scored just two runs in the first two games and Chicago’s pitchers have knocked in three at the plate. Infielder Javier Baez is 3-for-6 with a homer in the series and the Cubs received a run-scoring single in the first inning of a 5-2 win Saturday from Ben Zobrist, who is 6-for-12 lifetime against Bumgarner. Chicago turns to right-hander Jake Arrieta, who is 11-3 on the road this season and split a pair of 2016 starts against San Francisco with a 2.08 ERA.
WEATHER REPORT: Game-time conditions will be partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the mid-60's. As usual at AT&T Park in San Francisco the temps will fall steadily as evening turns into night and there will be a still 10-15 mph wind blowing out toward McCovey Cove in right field.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Cubs RH Jake Arrieta (18-8, 3.10 ERA) vs. Giants LH Madison Bumgarner (2016 playoffs: 1-0, 0.00)
Arrieta started the season 12-2 with a 2.10 ERA through June and split 12 decisions since after going 2-3 with a 4.60 ERA in September. The 30-year-old TCU product, who boasts 40 wins and a 2015 Cy Young Award in his past two seasons, owns a 4-2 mark with a 1.82 ERA in six career starts against the Cubs. Arrieta has held Posey, Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt to a combined 2-for-38, but Angel Pagan is 5-for-11 against him.
Bumgarner baffled the Mets with a four-hitter, striking out six and walking a pair, to improve his career postseason numbers to 8-3 with a 1.94 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. The 27-year-old cooled off in the second half of the regular season as well, going 5-5 with a 3.80 ERA after posting a 10-4 record and 1.94 mark before the All-Star break. Bumgarner is 9-4 with a 2.14 ERA at home this season and has fared well against the Cubs in his career (8-2, 2.25).
TRENDS:
* Cubs are 5-0 in their last 5 Divisional Playoff games.
* Giants are 14-3 in Bumgarner's last 17 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 11-2 in Cubs last 13 games following an off day.
* Giants are 4-0 in Bumgarner's last 4 starts vs. Cubs.
CONSENSUS: Early consensus returns are showing the public favoring the juggernaut Chicago Cubs as road dogs at a rate of 55 percent. Under 6 is picking up 59 percent of the totals wagers.