Home Run Derby odds and predictions for Monday, July 10th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
Home Run Derby Odds
VegasInsider.com
The Home Run Derby has turned into the staple event of All-Star week as eight sluggers across baseball get together to see who can knock out the most round-trippers. This year’s edition heads to Marlins Park in Miami as all eyes will be on the anticipated showdown of mammoth mashers with last year’s Derby champ Giancarlo Stanton and Yankees’ MVP candidate Aaron Judge listed as the favorites.
Stanton smashed 61 home runs at San Diego’s Petco Park in 2016 to win at 14/5 odds, as the Marlins’ outfielder sits at 9/5 odds (Bet $100 to win $180) in this year’s edition at BetOnline.ag. Only one hitter since 2000 has repeated as champion in the Derby with Mets’ outfielder Yoenis Cespedes accomplishing that feat in 2013 and 2014.
Stanton’s main competition is Judge, who leads the Majors with 30 home runs. Judge is also listed at 9/5 odds to win the Home Run Derby crown, but the New York star will be matched up with Marlins’ first baseman Justin Bour (16/1) in the opening round.
Another hitter to keep an eye is Dodgers’ rookie Cody Bellinger, who is tied with Stanton for second in the National League with 24 home runs. Bellinger sits at 5/1 odds, looking to become the first Dodger to grab the Derby crown, while going opposite another NL West slugger in Colorado’s Charlie Blackmon (20/1) in the first round.
Odds to Win the 2017 Home Run Derby
Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) 9/5
Aaron Judge (NYY) 9/5
Cody Bellinger (LAD) 5/1
Miguel Sano (MIN) 7/1
Mike Moustakas (KC) 14/1
Gary Sanchez (NYY) 16/1
Justin Bour (MIA) 16/1
Charlie Blackmon (COL) 20/1
Home Run Derby - 1st Round Matchups
Cody Bellinger (LAD) 4/7
Charlie Blackmon (COL) 29/20
Aaron Judge (NYY) 5/14
Justin Bour (MIA) 11/5
Miguel Sano (MIN) 5/8
Mike Moustakas (KC) 13/10
Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) 2/7
Gary Sanchez (NYY) 13/5
Home Run Derby - Finalists
Will Aaron Judge make the HR Derby Finals?
Yes 20/23
No 20/23
Will Charlie Blackmon make the HR Derby Finals?
Yes 11/2
No 1/9
Will Cody Bellinger make the HR Derby Finals?
Yes 13/5
No 2/7
Will Gary Sanchez make the HR Derby Finals?
Yes 5/1
No 1/8
Will Giancarlo Stanton make the HR Derby Finals?
Yes 20/29
No 23/20
Will Justin Bour make the HR Derby Finals?
Yes 5/1
No 1/8
Will Miguel Sano make the HR Derby Finals?
Yes 15/4
No 2/11
Will Mike Moustakas make the HR Derby Finals?
Yes 11/2
No 1/9
Home Run Derby Picks and Odds
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
The field is set for the 2017 Major League Baseball Home Run Derby. Marlins Park in Miami isn’t the greatest venue for a power-hitting contest, but the eight guys that have been selected to participate are pretty good fits for the event. The event features a bracket format now, as opposed to just the guy that will hit the most home runs. It is a fun event and you can throw some lunch money on it for fun, but you never want to go overboard betting the Derby.
Two Miami Marlins grace the field, as Giancarlo Stanton grabs the #1 seed and Justin Bour is slotted in as the #7 seed. Two New York Yankees are also in the field with Gary Sanchez as the #8 seed and Aaron Judge, who has already set the Yankees rookie record for home runs in a season with 30, is the #2 seed. Cody Bellinger and Charlie Blackmon have an NL West battle in the #3 vs. #6 matchup. Mike Moustakas and Miguel Sano square off in the #4 vs. #5 matchup.
Odds are available at 5Dimes Sportsbook for the quarterfinal matchups and the overall winner, so we’ll break those down for a little bit of fun over the All-Star Break.
Giancarlo Stanton (-380) vs. Gary Sanchez (+260)
Gary Sanchez has something to prove if he cares at all about what Logan Morrison said regarding Sanchez’s slot in the Derby. We’re going to be using some Statcast data in our analysis and the search parameter is set at 750 pitches because Sanchez has only played 55 games this season and has only seen 936 pitches.
The optimal launch angle for hitting a home run is between 25 and 35 degrees per those that study the data, so that will be a factor in our analysis. Obviously a Home Run Derby is different from game conditions, so we won’t rely too much on that data, but it is worth pointing out.
In the Stanton vs. Sanchez battle, the hometown favorite is Stanton. Stanton ranks 132nd out of 254 players in our sample with an 11.4-degree launch angle on average. He is 122nd in average distance at 181 feet. Stanton is fifth in number of barreled balls, which means a batted ball with a projected average of .500 or higher and a slugging percentage of 1.500 or higher.
Sanchez is 113th in launch angle at 12.3 degrees and is 145th in average distance at 176 feet. Sanchez isn’t thought of as a power hitter, so participating in an event like this could really cause him to change his swing mechanics. He also had an injury earlier this season.
Stanton is familiar with this park and the hitting backdrop, which could give him an edge in the first round against an inferior competitor. There is a lot of pressure to be the big name in the hometown Derby, but Stanton should be able to advance.
Pick: Giancarlo Stanton
Aaron Judge (-350) vs. Justin Bour (+250)
Aaron Judge leads the league in home runs at the All-Star Break and has put on a prolific power show this season. He’s also a young kid who shouldn’t get tired during what can be a grueling format for hitters. That’s a lot of swings to be taking with one goal in mind. Judge rates very well in distance this season with an average of 211 feet. That is 11th and the best mark of anybody in the Derby. His average launch angle of 13.5 degrees ranks 86th out of the sample size, but he’s hit his fair share of line drive missiles out of the ballpark.
Justin Bour has the home field advantage here in this matchup. His average launch angle is the lowest of all the competitors at 10.7 degrees. His distance is the second-lowest behind Gary Sanchez at 180 feet. He has hit 31 of his 58 career home runs at Marlins Park in 17 fewer plate appearances than on the road, so he hasn’t been affected too much by the low park factor.
This event seems to be made for a guy like Judge, though. We’ve seen guys with line drive swings, like Garret Anderson and Bobby Abreu, put on a show, but we’ve also seen prodigious uppercuts like Josh Hamilton have success. Judge is somewhere in between and he’s found the barrel more than anybody else this season.
Pick: Aaron Judge
Cody Bellinger (-160) vs. Charlie Blackmon (+120)
The best bet of the first round, at least in my estimation, is Cody Bellinger. Bellinger has the highest average launch angle of any of these competitors at 18.2 degrees and is 25th in average distance at 209 feet. He’s even hit 14 of his 24 home runs at Dodger Stadium, which isn’t known as a haven for hitters. He’s got one of those uppercut swings that helps to generate loft. That could be a factor if he starts to get fatigued. The natural trajectory of the ball should allow for more carry than somebody with a lower launch angle.
Charlie Blackmon’s power numbers are undoubtedly aided by Coors Field, so it’s easy to take him and his numbers with a grain of salt. Blackmon has an average distance of 195 feet, which ranks 59th. He has a 12.8-degree average launch angle, which ranks 101st. Blackmon, who has played his entire career with the Rockies, doesn’t have as big of a split as you would think, with 49 HR at home and 44 HR on the road and a difference of six more PA on the road, but it’s a factor that I cannot overlook here.
Pick: Cody Bellinger
Mike Moustakas (+110) vs. Miguel Sano (-150)
This is a great matchup and could be the most compelling of the four in the first round. Mike Moustakas has become a launch angle believer this season. His fly ball percentage is up almost seven percent and that’s why he has 25 dingers before the All-Star Break. He’s already set a career high in home runs. Moustakas has a 17-degree average launch angle, which ranks 34th and an average distance of 203 feet, which ranks 38th. With free agency on the horizon, it makes sense that Moose has made changes like this. He deserves a lot of credit for what he has been able to do this season.
Everybody knows about Miguel Sano’s prolific power. Sano was one of the top power prospects in the minors and has mostly delivered at the MLB level as well. He is hitting fewer fly balls this season, but still ranks 14th in average distance at 216 feet, but the FB% drop has him 65th in launch angle at 14.7 degrees. Sano and Moustakas are the closest matchup in terms of number of barreled balls this season, so this is the most even matchup we’ve seen.
With that in mind, I think there’s some value on the underdog. Marlins Park doesn’t really favor either side of the plate. Given the strikeout rates, I would venture that Sano has a little bit longer of a swing that takes a little bit more effort. He may fatigue a little bit quicker than Moustakas. It’s not necessarily about distance, it’s about consistency.
Pick: Mike Moustakas
Here is a look at the overall odds
Stanton +190
Judge +200
Bellinger +900
Moustakas +1400
Sano +1200
Blackmon +1250
Bour +1200
Sanchez +1300
My two favorite value picks are Bellinger and Moustakas. The second-round matchups would obviously be a challenge, but Bellinger has that uppercut swing with loft that can play well here and Moustakas has the highest price in what is largely a crapshoot of a contest.
Home Run Derby Betting Preview
By BetOnline.ag
The 2017 HR Derby features the two big names of Giancarlo Stanton (defending champion) and Aaron Judge at the top of the odds board. This year's event is going to start as one being all about the youthful bashers this league has right now (Judge, Sanchez, Bellinger, Sano) and there is no question that those guys will be looking to put on a show.
After Stanton knocked out 61 HR's overall last year en route to dethroning then-defending champion Todd Frazier, the young sluggers in this year's event are going to have their hands full trying to knock off Stanton. It's a bracket pool once again, and it's highly plausible that we get a Stanton/Judge Final matchup that everyone wants to see. Both guys are the clear favorites in the field at (+170) and (+175) respectively at BetOnline.ag, but are there better options to take to win this thing, or better ways to get action down on the Derby? After all it is a 'fun' event and bettors shouldn't be looking to go all out on this event.
While everyone tends to focus on the eventual winner, there are other ways to get action down on this event. You can find the full list of odds for the eventual winner, will a certain player make the Finals, or 1st round matchups at BetOnline.ag under the “Futures and Props” menu, and it's there where I would like to start with my best bets for this evening.
Best Bet #1: Charlie Blackmon (+145) to beat Cody Bellinger in the 1st round
Bellinger may be the NL's version of Aaron Judge, but the young Dodgers rookie could be primed for an upset here against the late “throw-in” to the competition in Charlie Blackmon.
Blackmon isn't your prototypical HR hitter batting atop the Rockies order, but he does have 20 HR's on the season so far and shows quite a lot of pop in his bat. He's a guy that might have a bit more stamina out there given his swing isn't as violent as others, and he's also not carrying around the heavy frames that these other guys are. From Blackmon's perspective he's got to feel a bit disrespected that many media members and fans consider him as an undeserving “throw-in” in this event, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him go all the way to the Finals. He's got to get through a lot of big boys to get there though and taking the +145 odds on him to just beat one of those guys is the better way to go.
Best Bet #2: Miguel Sano to make the Finals (+300)
Sano has a first-round matchup against Mike Moustakas of the KC Royals, but the Minnesota slugger is -150 to get through that round and on to a likely showdown with Stanton in Round 2. More importantly here though is the idea that we are getting an under-the-radar slugger at +300 odds to simply come up with one upset in his first two matchups (vs. Stanton). Sano is definitely the guy who's got the 2nd best chance to reach the finals from this half of the bracket and should Stanton stumble early, we've now got a clear-cut favorite at +300 odds.
Sano is also more than capable of beating Stanton head-to-head should the two meet in the second round. At this price, I'm willing to take a shot that we see another young up-and-coming slugger in Sano make plenty of noise in the Derby and possibly steal the show.
Best Bets to Win HR Derby
Favorites: Giancarlo Stanton (+170)
Middle Tier: Miguel Sano (+600)
Longshot: Charlie Blackmon (+2000)
I've touched on all three of these guys earlier in this piece as we should see either Sano or Stanton reach the Finals from their half of the bracket. It's tough to go against Stanton given he's at his own ballpark and is very comfortable with the slight lines and the best places to hit it out, but as I mentioned before, should he stumble early, Sano at +600 is where the value is.
In terms of the other side of the bracket, all the talk will be about Judge and Bellinger, but it's interesting to note that a MLB rookie has never won this event and I don't think 2017 will be the year that it changes. If that's the case you've got another Marlin in Justin Bour who can mash (but probably won't hold up vs. Judge) and Charlie Blackmon. Blackmon has the bigger odds and will be the one guy in this event with a huge chip on his shoulder. That's a combination I'm willing to get behind for a flyer wager and should he manage to knock out all the big boys en route to the title, you can definitely give your bankroll a mini-vacation for the next few days.
Home Run Derby - Who to Bet
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Odds to Win Derby
Giancarlo Stanton (7-to-4)
Aaron Judge (19-to-1)
Cody Bellinger (8-to-1)
Miguel Sano (8-to-1)
Charlie Blackmon (15-to-1)
Justin Bour (15-to-1)
Mike Moustakas (15-to-1)
Gary Sanchez (15-to-1)
Some of Major League Baseball’s best power hitters will put their talents on display in the Home Run Derby in Miami on Monday. This is one of the most exciting events of the year, as home runs are some of the more exciting things one can see in a baseball game. And being that there will be plenty of them here, there’s not much that can beat watching this event. The guy that will be the most confident when he steps out on the field for this event is Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton was the winner of the Home Run Derby in 2016, when Petco Park hosted the event. Stanton also happens to be coming off of a two-homer game on Sunday, and that was against real pitching. With that out of the way, let’s take a look at three of the best picks to win this thing:
Giancarlo Stanton (7-to-4) - It was difficult to choose between Stanton and Judge, but Stanton should be jacked up competing in front of his home crowd. It also helps that Stanton has already won this event before. Judge will likely be a bit nervous, as he is very new to being the center of attention. Stanton, meanwhile, knows exactly how to swing in order to win this type of event. He also happens to be hitting well coming into this thing.
Cody Bellinger (8-to-1) - Bellinger might not have as many homers as fellow rookie Aaron Judge, but he is close and has not played in as many games. The Dodgers’ youngster has similarly taken the league by storm, racking up 25 home runs in just 70 games. He has the ability to stay incredibly poised in the box, and his pop is up there with anybody else in the league. Look for him to really make a run at this thing, and don’t be afraid to back him at 8-to-1.
Justin Bour (15-to-1) - While it might not be the best idea to take three guys in the National League, it’s hard to pass up on Justin Bour at 15-to-1 odds. Those would pay out very favorably if he won, and it’s not that out of the question. Bour, like his teammate Giancarlo Stanton, will also be playing in front of his fans in Miami here. That should give him some extra energy, but it’s not like he’ll really need it that much. He is a tremendous power hitter to begin with, as evidenced by his 20 homers this season.