Saturday 4/16/22 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NBA & NHL games.
Ben Burns
NBA 10* TOP GUN - 76ers -4
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Football Jesus : NBA Dallas+ pts
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The Prez
4% REGULATION Dallas Stars -125
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MLBTOTAL
Chicago White Sox – Tampa Bay Rays
Over 8.5
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Tomas Sports
Toronto Raptors ml
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Line Sniper
Yesterday 0-2
Running Results: 176-167 (51%)
Running MLB Results: 4-7 (-3.6 units)
MLB Top Play: Rays UNDER 9 -120
NBA Play: Dallas Mavericks +5
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Carmine Bianco
3% Columbus Blue Jackets at Los Angeles Kings
REGULATION Los Angeles Kings -120
3% Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo Sabres -135
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Ben Burns
NHL GOW
Boston Bruins
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Matt Severance
UTAH @ DALLAS | 04/16 | 1:00 PM EDT
UTAH -186
ANALYSIS: In really no surprise, Shams Charania is reporting that Luka Doncic is not expected to play in Game 1 vs. Utah with his strained calf. I wanted to grab this line earlier this week when it was down around -140 but wanted to make sure. Guess I'll just risk it now while still under -200. Not impossible the Mavs can win/cover the spread at home without Luka, but with the Jazz fully healthy it's hard to see an outright victory.
+3241 73-26 IN LAST 99 NBA ML PICKS
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Micah Roberts
DENVER @ GOLDEN ST. | 04/16 | 8:30 PM EDT
GOLDEN ST. -6.5
ANALYSIS: The Nuggets won three of four meetings against the Warriors this season, including both meetings in San Francisco. But Draymond Green, the point forward of the Warriors, didn’t play any of the games. The Nuggets covered their last five as a road underdog, but the Warriors closed out the season with five straight wins. Green is the key. Warriors win by double-digits and cover.
UTAH @ DALLAS | 04/16 | 1:00 PM EDT
OVER 209.5
ANALYSIS: The Under cashed in 58.8 percent of Mavericks games this season. But in the last seven games, they went 6-1 with six of them going way Over the total. There's no Luka Doncic in Game 1, but Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie running the show will give Utah trouble. This total is eight points lower than their last meeting 20 days ago. I’m on the Over.
MINNESOTA @ MEMPHIS | 04/16 | 3:30 PM EDT
MEMPHIS -6.5
ANALYSIS: These are two of the top scoring teams in the NBA and they each held serve at home, winning and covering their four dates. Memphis is a squad that does all the little things properly, which is why it was the best cover team in the NBA, hitting 63.7 percent (51-29-2 ATS). The Grizzlies led the NBA in rebounding, steals and blocked shots. Take Memphis to cover Game 1.
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Larry Hartstein
CINCINNATI @ L.A. DODGERS | 04/16 | 10:10 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -1.5
ANALYSIS: After a shaky start to the season, the Dodgers are rolling now. They've won three straight and have outscored opponents 23-5 during that span. All four Los Angeles victories have been by at least two runs this season, so instead of laying the big money-line number, I like -1.5 (-140) on the run line for the better return.
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Jeff Hochman
TORONTO @ PHILADELPHIA | 04/16 | 6:00 PM EDT
TORONTO +4.5
ANALYSIS: Toronto defeated the 76ers, 119-114, as 3.5-point home dogs on April 7. The game was telling in my opinion. The Raptors were able to switch every pick and roll with their length. Philadelphia shot 52.8 percent from 3-point land and still lost. Don't fall asleep on this Raptors team. Toronto owns a +2.3 point differential, while Philadelphia is +2.6 this season. Toronto has really good team chemistry, and I love coach Nick Nurse. Take the Raptors (plus the points) and for the series at a nice price.
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Mike Barner
DENVER @ GOLDEN ST. | 04/16 | 8:30 PM EDT
DENVER +6.5
ANALYSIS: The Warriors should be at full strength for this game with Stephen Curry (foot) listed as probable. The question is, how effective will Curry be? He hasn’t played in a month, and the team has already said that he will be on some sort of a minutes limit. If he’s rusty, or plays well under 30 minutes, the Warriors could be in trouble. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Nuggets won this game outright, so I’ll take the points.
MINNESOTA @ MEMPHIS | 04/16 | 3:30 PM EDT
MEMPHIS -6.5
ANALYSIS: The Grizzlies had a stellar regular season, despite Ja Morant only playing 57 games. They are healthy heading into this game, and the Timberwolves could be facing an uphill battle just to win a game or two in this series, let alone advance. The Grizzlies went 19-11 as home favorites this season, and I expect them to begin the playoffs with a decisive victory.
+425 13-8 IN LAST 21 NBA PICKS
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John Bollman
ST. LOUIS @ MILWAUKEE | 04/16 | 7:10 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS 100
ANALYSIS: Fading the Brewers against a lefty will be a common theme as long as they keep struggling. In a small sample size, the Brewers are ranked just 24th in the league in wOBA against lefties. They weren’t much better against lefties last season either, ranked just 23rd. Steven Matz struggled in his first start against the Pirates, but the Pirates are actually hitting lefties pretty well right now. Adrian Houser struggled against the Orioles in his first start as well, so neither starter fared well against a lineup that isn’t expected to be good. The only thing that worries me about this matchup is that Houser was 3-0 with a 0.36 ERA in four starts against the Cardinals last season and absolutely shoved. However, he didn’t have incredible strikeout numbers against them so its not like they weren’t putting the ball in play. I like the value in the Cardinals here.
PHILADELPHIA @ MIAMI | 04/16 | 6:10 PM EDT
PHILADELPHIA -110
ANALYSIS: We have a battle of southpaws in South Beach tonight as Ranger Suarez is expected to start against Trevor Rogers. Trevor Rogers was good in his first start against the Giants allowing just 2 ER in 5 IP. He was also very good against the Phillies last season, but the Phillies were worse at hitting lefties last season. So far this season they are ranked 4th in the league against lefties in wOBA while the Marlins are ranked dead last. The Phillies were ranked 16th in wOBA against lefties last season while the Marlins were ranked second to last. The Phillies have struggled to score and win in Miami lately with the Marlins winning 8 of the last 12 at home, but I think they’ll have their best chance with a lefty against the Marlins. Take the underdog to salvage a game of this series.
OAKLAND @ TORONTO | 04/16 | 3:07 PM EDT
OAKLAND 195
ANALYSIS: Until Ryu figures it out, I am not sure why he keeps commanding these massive lines. Paul Blackburn absolutely dominated the Rays throwing 5 innings while striking out 7 in his first start of the season. He faces a much tougher lineup in the Blue Jays today but they will still be without Teoscar Hernandez. The Athletics have been much better against lefties so far this season and they get another lefty in Hyun Jin Ryu today. Ryu struggled in his first start allowing 6 ER in 3.1 IP and by keeping the game close yesterday, all the Blue Jays top relievers were forced to pitch. I think the Blue Jays will need an excellent start from Ryu in order to win this game because if he comes out early, they could be in trouble. Take the value on the As.
SAN FRANCISCO @ CLEVELAND | 04/16 | 6:10 PM EDT
CLEVELAND -115
ANALYSIS: Cal Quantrill pitched well in his first start of the season allowing just 2 ER in 5 IP. He was also pitching extremely well to end last season throwing a quality start in 11 of his last 13 starts. Anthony Desclafani struggled in his first start allowing 2 ER in just 3.2 IP. The Guardians were shut down by Carlos Rodon yesterday but that is understandable with his stuff and history against the Guardians. They are still leading the league in wOBA and they get a righty today who they are much better against. I like the value in the home team.
MINNESOTA @ BOSTON | 04/16 | 4:10 PM EDT
BOSTON -130
ANALYSIS: The Red Sox played a dud yesterday in their home opener, but I think they should come out more focused without all the pregame festivities. Tanner Houck struggled in his first start of the season but it was mostly his loss of command that killed him. Sonny Gray will take on the Red Sox today, he is 1-6 with a 6.64 ERA in his career against the Red Sox. However, none of those starts have come since 2018. Byron Buxton should be out of the lineup after leaving yesterday’s game early injured, I like the Red Sox to get their first home win of the season today.
+1170 21-10 IN LAST 31 MLB ML PICKS
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Buster Sports
NHL BIG TICKET RELEASE
(45) Winnipeg Jets at (46) Tampa Bay Lightning
5% Total Over 5.5 (-120). Good at 6.
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ZITI Sports
NBA PLAYOFFS
Golden State Warriors -6.5 -110 Denver Nuggets (8:30 PM)
Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks OVER 209 -108 (1:00 PM)
NHL
Vegas Golden Knights vs Edmonton Oilers OVER 6.5 -120 (4:05 PM)
Buffalo Sabres -140 Philadelphia Flyers (7:05 PM)
New Jersey Devils +105 Seattle Kraken (10:05 PM)
Columbus Blue Jackets vs Los Angeles Kings OVER 6.5 -110 (10:35 PM)
MLB
New York Mets -160 Arizona Diamondbacks (1:10 PM)
Atlanta Braves -105 San Diego Padres (4:05 PM)
New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles OVER 9 -110 (7:05 PM)
Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners OVER 7.5 -110 (9:10 PM)
SOCCER UNDER SYSTEM
4/16
France - Ligue 2- Pau FC vs. AJ Auxerre UNDER 2.5 -121 (9:00 AM)
4/17
Finland - Veikkausliiga- FC Inter Turku vs. FC Haka UNDER 2.5 -121 (7:00 AM)
SOCCER OVER SYSTEM
4/17
Austria - Bundesliga- Wolfsberger AC vs. Austria Klagenfurt OVER 2.5 -167 (11:00 AM)
Czech Republic - Czech Liga- Viktoria Plzen vs. Banik Ostrava OVER 2.5 -107 (11:00 AM)
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Goodfella
2* 1st Five Innings Marlins
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Bob Balfe:
MLB
6:10 PM EST: Rotation #905.Phillies -105 over Marlins
Suarez/Rogers: Phillies fans are disappointed with how the team has started the season. You could also say the same thing for the Marlins fans. We will go with Philadelphia at this price as they are the better when hitting against left-handers. Take the Phillies.
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Jack jones
15
Yankees -1.5
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Jim Feist
Mets rl
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Kevin Thomas
10 U play
Sixers ats first half
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kelso
personal best
50 jazz
best bets
15 t wolves
15 raptors
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Micah Roberts
L.A. ANGELS @ TEXAS | 04/16 | 7:05 PM EDT
L.A. ANGELS -120
ANALYSIS: The Rangers lead MLB in a few categories, such as allowing batters to hit .291 and giving up 6.3 runs and 2.3 homers per game. It’s early, but the Angels took advantage of some of that Friday in a 9-6 win and have won three of their last four. Noah Syndergaard pitched 5.1 innings of shutout ball in a 2-0 win against the Astros last Saturday. Angels to win.
OAKLAND @ TORONTO | 04/16 | 3:07 PM EDT
OAKLAND 190
ANALYSIS: The A’s took a 4-1 loss Friday night in Toronto after winning four of their previous five. One of those wins was guided by Paul Blackburn, who tossed five shutout innings in a 13-2 win at Tampa Bay. Hyun Jin-Ryu’s last start saw him pulled in the fourth inning after giving up six runs. This price was too juicy to pass on. A’s to win.
ARIZONA @ N.Y. METS | 04/16 | 1:10 PM EDT
N.Y. METS -160
ANALYSIS: The Mets have won three straight, so it’s a good time to follow a streak, but it’s also a great time to bet against Arizona. After seven games, the Diamondbacks (2-5) have found their spot at the bottom of the stats sheet with the worst batting average (.132) and second-fewest runs scored (2.5 per game). The Mets lineup is clicking, so take them to win
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Matt Severance
SAN JOSE @ DALLAS | 04/16 | 8:00 PM EDT
DALLAS -200
ANALYSIS: This is a little high priced so I'll let you decide whether to bet the regulation line or not. I bet one unit on everything so I don't win as much or lose as much. Just my style. Why I'm not afraid of big moneyline favorites. The small wins add up. San Jose has no reason to care here and has a handful of guys out injured. Dallas absolutely has to have it for its wild-card chances. We are at the point of the season where motivation is all that matters.
+1403 67-34-1 IN LAST 102 NHL PICKS
TORONTO @ PHILADELPHIA | 04/16 | 6:00 PM EDT
PHILADELPHIA -190
ANALYSIS: Part of me wants to get this wrong honestly. I am not a James Harden fan. He whines and loafs and gains weight until he gets what he wants, which is a trade. (Reminds of an ex-GF.) Anyways, the Sixers of course lose Matisse Thybulle for games in Toronto because he's not a good teammate (not going to get into the vax thing; certainly a personal choice and respect that but it is not being a good teammate and he already got one shot, so what's the difference?) so they better win this game. You can definitely make an argument for the Raptors covering, but I honestly will just pay the extra and not have to worry about it.
+3062 73-27 IN LAST 100 NBA ML PICKS
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Matt Severance
NEW JERSEY @ SEATTLE | 04/16 | 10:00 PM EDT
SEATTLE -115
ANALYSIS: Pretty much every good player New Jersey has is done for the season. The Kraken obviously aren't very good but they are usually competitive at home. I don't know, I guess I just wanted to take Seattle on the moneyline once this season. Mission accomplished. Throw me a fish.
+1403 67-34-1 IN LAST 102 NHL PICKS
TORONTO @ OTTAWA | 04/16 | 7:00 PM EDT
OTTAWA +1.5
ANALYSIS: The Leafs are of course the much better team, but this is the Battle of Ontario and frankly this might be the last game the Senators care about this season. Plus it's Toronto rookie Eric Kallgren in net and he wasn't good last time out. Senators ML might not be an awful play, but I'll take the nice -125 puckline price.
+2134 32-8 IN LAST 40 NHL ATS PICKS
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Delphi Sports
MLB
3* #917/918 Oakland/Toronto OVER 9
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IC
NBA
7 - Over 237.5 Minnesota vs. Memphis Grizzlies
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Andrew McInnis
(51) Arizona Coyotes at (52) Calgary Flames
4% Total Over 6.0 (-125)
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kelso
15 angels
15 brewers
15 astros
15 dodgers
15 dodgers under
10 par dodger and under
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Rob Vinciletti
Under tigers/royals 8.5
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CleInsiderSports
Soccer - EPL - Tottenham ML
Soccer - Germany - Dortmund ML
Soccer - Italy - Florentina ML
Soccer - Italy - Juventus ML (1st Half)
Rugby - Super Rugby - Waratahs ML
Basketball - NBA - Jazz/Mavericks U209.5
Baseball - MLB - Dodgers ML
Baseball - MLB - Cardinals/Brewers U8.5
Boxing - Chris Billam-Smith ML
Boxing - Radzhab Buatev ML
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The Winners Circle – Saturday Sports Plays
NBA BASKETBALL
Play Utah -5 over Dallas
Play Memphis -6.5 over Minnesota
Play Philadelphia -4.5 over Toronto
Play Golden State -6.5 over Denver
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NHL HOCKEY
Play Washington -270 over Montreal
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MLB BASEBALL
Play Los Angeles Dodgers -230 over Cincinnati
Play Toronto -230 over Oakland
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Wager Edge
Boston ml
Phillies ml
Atlanta over 8
Texas ml
Reds ml
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Godfather locks
Massive 10k unit picks
#1 - minnesota timberwolves +6.5
#2 - golden state warriors -6.5
huge 5k unit picks ***
#1 - chicago white sox -140
#2 - atlanta braves +105
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The Money Team Baseball (TMT)
3k Cleveland -110
2k Detroit +111
2k LA Angels Under 9
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