Power Sports
Milwaukee vs. Boston
Pick: Milwaukee +3
Needless to say, this is an awful spot for Boston. Not only did they lose a close game in Cleveland last night (Kyrie Irving's much hyped return), but they also lost their other new acquisition (Gordon Hayward) for probably the entire season. One loss won't kill them, but the quick turnaround w/ an overhauled roster should result in an 0-2 start for the guys in green. Waiting in the wings here is a Milwaukee team that has every bit the chance to finish 2nd in the East as do the Celtics. Take the points (although you likely won't need them).
Boston trailed by as many as 18 last night before a second half comeback ultimately fell short. As I said in my analysis for that game, it's very odd to see a team that finished #1 in its Conference almost completely overhaul its roster the following year. Only four players are back from the team that won 53 games last season. Players such as Jae Crowder, Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley will all be missed, especially in the wake of the Hayward injury. Marcus Morris is another play out indefinitely, by the way. All of a sudden, there's now a large burden of Irving to carry a lot of fresh faces.
Milwaukee has a darkhorse MVP candidate in Giannis Antetokounmpo. I was a little surprised to see the Bucks finish only 36-46 ATS last season given the move up the standings. But then again, perhaps that reflects how the market views them. They actually didn't live up to expectations last year, but with both Boston and Toronto down coming into 2017-18, I can see this group finishing second in the East. In other words, they may very well be the better team here and they're getting points against a team in a terrible spot.
SPORTS WAGERS
L.A. Dodgers +102 over CHICAGO
The Dodgers have outscored the Cubs 15-4 in this series and we have no reason to believe for a second that anything can or will change in Game 4. The Cubbies got off to a shaky start in April and they’re going out to a shaky finish. They lack focus too, as the mental errors add up. It is clear that the Dodgers are the hungrier team while the Cubs hunger was quenched last season. Aside from having an advantage at the plate, in the pen and in mindset, the Dodgers have a big edge on the hill today with Alex Wood opposing Jake Arrieta. While Wood starting out like a house on fire, he’s cooled off a bit but his command, K’s and rising groundball/K-rate combo is intriguing. We’re not betting on Wood here, however, we’re betting on the Dodgers bats and the Dodgers to beat up on Jake Arrieta and the Cubs.
Jake Arrieta would see his first big league action in 2010, making 58 unremarkable (read: bad) starts before sliding into a middle-relief role for the Orioles in 2012. At the 2013 trade deadline, the Orioles sought to bolster their rotation, so they flipped Arrieta and Pedro Strop to the Cubs for Scott Feldman and Steve Clevenger. Seriously. For the Cubs, it would go down as a heist that would make Danny Ocean proud. Once on the North Side, it didn’t take long for Arrieta to go from trade afterthought to frontline starter. He tinkered with his pitch mix, throwing more sliders and sinkers, which led to a truly anemic homer run rate and a dramatic increase in whiffs. The new repertoire helped Arrieta become one of the best pitchers in baseball, culminating in a Cy Young Award in 2015. While he hasn’t repeated the heights of his award-winning campaign, Arrieta has fluctuated between good and great ever since, anchoring the Cubs’ World Series rotation. That was then. Right now, Arrietta is pitching like he’s back in a O’s uniform.
Early in the 2017 season, Arrieta has a little trouble with the long ball. You know, just like pretty much everyone else in the league. The 31-year-old surrendered 14 dingers in the first half, compared to 10 and 16 home runs he’d given up in the entirety of the 2015 and 2016 seasons, respectively. In his first 11 starts, he struggled as hitters tattooed his sinker and slider, leading to a bloated 4.60 ERA in 62.2 innings. Despite his struggles, he was striking out over 10 batters per nine innings with a swinging-strike rate over 11% but things have gotten much worse.
It’s at least conceivable that Arrieta’s early woes were mostly tied to bad luck. Batters were hitting .337 on balls in play against him and he was able to strand 67% of baserunners, a number well below league average. Having said that, Arrieta lost a couple ticks of velocity this season, which has contributed to the lowest vertical movement on his sinker in his career. In 2015, Arrieta averaged 91 mph with his slider, the hardest in baseball, getting ground balls in over 54% of batted balls. This year the pitch averaged 88 mph (18th in the league), and managed only 29% ground balls, one of the lowest rates for any starter in the league. Over his last five starts, Arrieta’s swing and miss rate is 6%. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate is 34%/22%/44% (incidentally, we include infield pops as groundballs). Since the beginning of August, Arrieta has a 1.74 WHIP and a 6.10 ERA with a 5.77 xERA. This is the Baltimore version of Jake Arietta pitching in an elimination game that we give him or the Cubs little chance of success in.
SPORTS WAGERS
TORONTO -1½ +186 over Detroit
The Leafs will go with backup Curtis McElhinney here and while most think that using a backup is detrimental to the team’s chances of winning, we see it as the opposite. The backup goaltenders are usually the most liked person on the team. They never complain and they work harder than most without getting the playing time. Thus, when they get penciled in the entire team wants them to win so badly that they give a little extra. Aside from that, McElhinney might be better than Frederick Andersen. We liked him when he was backing up Bob in Columbus and have no fear in getting behind him and the Leafs here. As for the Maple Leafs, well they’ve played three home games thus far and have outshot those three opponents by a count of 134-87 and they’re not taking a step up in class here. We love that Toronto is coming off a 6-3 home loss too. That didn’t sit well with the boss.
Detroit comes into this one with a healthy 4-2 record but regression is on the way. Detroit ranks 16th in scoring chances for but they have played Vegas, Arizona, Ottawa and Dallas among others and were just one of two teams (Vegas was the other) that have been outshot by the Coyotes this year. Detroit has surprised some folks early on but it’s not reasonable to expect it to continue. A growing portion of the fan base feels the Red Wings are indeed being "mismanaged into oblivion," and there's no coherent or effective plan going forward. Fair or not, Ken Holland receives criticism for the Wings' salary cap management, poor drafting, poor player development, over-reliance on older veterans, overvaluation of its players, and focus on getting bigger while the most successful NHL teams are trending younger and faster. This is Detroit’s toughest opponent to date. They have had the luxury of an easy schedule thus far and unless Jimmy Howard stands on his head, Toronto figures to expose them in a bad way.
Montreal +155 over LOS ANGELES
OT included. After failing to make the post-season for the second time in three seasons, the Kings parted ways with Darryl Sutter and Dean Lombardi, the architects of their two Stanley Cup championships. With John Stevens behind the bench and Rob Blake in the press box, the Kings are off to a fast start this season, picking up four victories and an overtime defeat in their five games thus far. We’re hearing lots of talk regarding the resurgent play of Anze Kopitar, which has power L.A.’s quick start. Jonathan Quick’s .939 save percentage and a 95% penalty kill efficiency certainly do not hurt matters either. L.A. is relaxed and feeling good while the Canadiens are reeling. You will pay a massive premium to get behind the Kings here due to the start of both respective teams but we can assure you we are getting the better team plus a big price here. That doesn’t mean the Habs will win, as state of mind counts for something, but if we’re playing value, the Habs must be played here.
The Canadiens are mired in a funk right now that goes beyond talent, effort, statistics, and luck. The entire team appears to be playing on their heels, afraid to make an error, and this is particularly evident if (or when) they go down by a goal. As for their opponents, while they have benefited from puck luck (PDO 103), the Kings’ strong start is also accompanied by just above league average underlying possession numbers. Sixteen goals scored puts them exactly at league average. In other words, the Kings are league average and therefore cannot be favored by this much against the Canadiens. Furthermore, Jonathan Quick is not as good as advertised. Regression all around is forthcoming.
Montreal needs to shake this thing up but they have the talent and puck possession numbers to do so. Carey Price has an .885 save percentage this season and once again was not sharp last night (.882 save %). There is a good chance that the Habs will turn to backup Al Montoya tonight but we’re not going to concern ourselves with that. The Habs need to get a bounce or two their way and the season could change quickly for them. If we were willing to take back +110 in San Jose last night, of course we’re willing to take back better than 7½-5 tonight. There is too much value not to.
Mike Lundin
Dodgers vs. Cubs
Play: Under 9.5
The Chicago Cubs' bats have been ice cold so far in this series, scoring just a total four runs through the first three games. I think the posted total is set way too high here in Game 4 of the series.
Alex Wood will take the ball for the Dodgers. He will make his first start here in the playoffs but posted a 16-3 record behind a 2.72 ERA during the regular season. Wood has held the Cubs to one earned run through 8 2/3 innings of work this year and he's 7-1 with a stellar 2.24 ERA in 13 road starts.
The Cubs turn to Jake Arrieta who is 1-3 with a 3.77 ERA in five career regular-season starts against the Dodgers. He conceded no earned runs in four innings against Washington in the NLDS and was 5-2 with a 2.90 ERA through 10 home starts during the regular season.
Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings at Wrigley.
Brandon Lee
Astros vs. Yankees
Play: Astros -106
I cashed in winning tickets on the Yankees in both Game 3 and 4, but will now shift sides and take the Astros in Game 5. Houston is still the better team and part of the reason I didn't like them in them in the previous two is they just don't have the depth at starting pitching after the two aces in Keuchel and Verlander. Tonight will feature the return of Keuchel, who was exceptional in Game 1, allowing just 4 hits with 10 strikeouts in 7 shutout innings. He's now got a 1.09 ERA and 0.780 WHIP in 8 career starts against the Yankees. New York counters with Masahiro Tanaka, who has an ugly 7.62 ERA in 6 career starts (1-5 team record) against the Astros.
John Martin
Blazers vs. Suns
Play: Over 219
Two of the worst defensive teams in the NBA square off tonight when the Blazers travel to face the Suns on opening night. Earl Watson wants to make sure that the Suns go up-tempo and take advantage of their backcourt led by Devin Booker and Eric Bledsoe. This is a young team that will get up and down this year, and one that will likely be terrible on the defensive end again. The Blazers have the same issue as they feature a great young backcourt but one that doesn't play much defense. The OVER was 3-1 in four meetings between these teams last year with combined scores of 247, 211, 245 and 233 points.
Jack Jones
Heat / Magic Under 206
I'm taking the UNDER in this matchup between the Miami Heat and Orlando Magic. The Heat were a great defensive team last year which was the biggest reason for their second-half resurgence. They will be an elite defensive squad once again in 2017 with basically the same cast back, led by Hassan Whiteside.
Defense was the problem for the Magic last season. Orlando ranked 22nd in points allowed (107.6), 25th in defensive field-goal percentage (46.7 percent), 24th in defensive 3-point percentage (36.8 ) as well as 22nd in defensive rating (110.5).
While preseason numbers do not necessarily indicate how the regular season will go, the Magic are at least hopeful of an improvement after playing decently on defense during the exhibition season. They ranked ninth in defensive rating, 10th in points allowed and sixth in field-goal percentage allowed.
The Heat went 27-14 to the UNDER in road games last season, including 9-2 in their final 11 road games. I expect both teams to come in a bit rusty in the opener and for defense to prevail in this one.
Dave Price
Brooklyn at Indiana
Play: Indiana -3
The loss of Paul George has the Indiana Pacers a bit under the radar entering the new season. But this team still has a lot of talent on hand and should be better than expected. They have a solid backcourt with Darren Collison and Victor Oladipo, and nice veteran in Thaddeus Young, and one of the best young centers in the game in Myles Turner. The Brooklyn Nets are in rebuilding mode for sure and with all of their new pieces, they won't be hitting on all cylinders this early in the season. This is a pretty generous price here with the Pacers at home.
Jack Brayman
My free play for Wednesday is in the same game I'm loving the total.
I want you playing the New York Yankees, as I think they push the Houston Astros to the brink of elimination by winning this one today.
I won't get too much into how I like this game, as I don't want to give away the total I'm releasing, but you can take comfort in knowing these few things:
The Yankees haven't lost at home this postseason, having knocked off the same Cleveland Indians team that won 21 in a row during the regular season, and now the American League-best Astros.
The Yankees have also won 21 of their last 28 in the Bronx, so you have a 75 percent winning edge when they're on 161st Street.
The Astros may be a dominant team, especially at the plate, but they've scored a mere nine runs in the first four games of this series, and they're mired in a 1-5 skid when playing on the road in the playoffs.
Take New York today, and get the total to pair with it!
4* YANKEES
Eric Schroeder
My free play for tonight is on the Boston Celtics.
With one under their belt, and a tough one at that, expect them to bounce back tonight at home against the Milwaukee Bucks and score the win and cover.
I know there is concern the C's lost Gordon Hayward, but they're resilient enought to come out and play for him tonight. And they still have enought talent to get past these Bucks.
The Celtics trailed by 18 points before rallying and almost winning the game against the Cleveland Cavaliers, so they will be playing with a chip on their shoulders tonight.
2* CELTICS
Jimmy Boyd
Nuggets / Jazz Under 204.5
These two Northwest Division rivals will both be out to prove something in the season opener. The Jazz want to show everyone that they are still a factor in the West after losing Gordon Hayward and the Nuggets are a team that wants to show last year's 2nd half surge was just a sign of things to come.
I'm expecting a much lower-scoring game than the books are calling for with this total. Utah was a defensive first team with Hayward and will be even more so now that they lost their leading scorer. Not to mention they also lost their second leading scorer in George Hill. Denver's not perceived as a great defensive team, but should be much improved with the addition of Paul Milsap to pair with the emerging star at center in Nikola Jokic.
I also think Utah is going to try to slow the pace way down here at home, as they aren't built to run up and down the floor and try to win games in a shootout.
UNDER is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in the series with a 5-1 mark in the last 6 games played in Utah.
Tony Finn
Milwaukee vs. Boston
Play: Milwaukee +3
The Milwaukee Bucks travel to the Garden for the home court 2017 season opener against the Boston Celtics. The TD Garden will be full for the scheduled 7:30 p.m. ET tip but there are now serious question marks about the Celtics ability to be who they were a season ago on a nightly basis especially in the second leg of a back-to-back.
The Celtics lost their prized free agent acquisition of the offseason. Gordon Hayward dislocated his left ankle and fractured his left tibia six minutes into last night's loss to the Cavaliers in Cleveland. The Celtics season-opening defeat and loss of Hayward present challenges to head coach Brad Stevens and his staff that is nearly impossible to plan for and nearly as difficult to manage. The coaches and players find themselves with a short bench and without their All-Star scoring wing for an undetermined amount of court time.
Despite the fact that tonight's is the Garden opener it is going to be a difficult task for this group to buy into this game being important. The fact is, however, that tonight's game, every game for that matter, matters in the end.
The opinion of this author is that the Celtics lost in the offseason by trading away Isaiah Thomas for Kyrie Irving. They have lost an additional share with Hayward being lost to injury. The argument that the loss isn't as large as I am writing it out to be simply isn't the case. While the team had not yet adjusted to having Hayward in the lineup isn't a silver lining. The roster result of losing the former Jazz All-Star is that the team now has to learn to play with more minutes from a rookie and a last year's Detroit Piston Marcus Morris, rather. And Morris isn't 100 percent due to right knee soreness.
The Bucks begin the season on the road which isn't a negative considering the situation with Boston playing last night and the youth of Milwaukee. Their best player and future stud is a 22-year-old in Giannis Antetokounmpo. Young teams, be it in the college or professional ranks, don't feel the same opening day/night pressure on the road as they do in front of their home town faithful.
The combination of Antetokounmpo (23 point per game), a healthy shooting guard in Khris Middleton and NBA Rookie of the Year Malcolm Brogdon is a difficult matchup for Celtics tonight under the conditions. The Bucks are without forward Jabari Parker to an ACL tear.
The Bucks were already in Boston on Tuesday night and as a group watched the Celtics and Cavaliers game from their hotel. The combination of the injury to Hayward, the second leg of a back-to-back while playing a talented and ready Jason Kidd squad is too much for Boston to overcome tonight.
Bob Balfe
Dodgers -105
The Dodgers are playing flawless baseball right now. The Cubs have not hit the ball well all postseason and even last night could only get one run on eight hits. Teams go through peaks and valleys during seasons. It just so happens the Cubs are slumping right now and on top of that are going against the most complete team in baseball right now. Alex Wood has been fantastic all season and should lead his team into the World Series tonight.
Bruce Marshall
Atlanta at Dallas
Pick: Dallas
Last year Atlanta was able to get the best of Dallas, but the Hawks' top three components in those pair of wins--Paul Millsap, Dwight Howard, and Tim Hardaway, Jr.--all departed in the offseason, leaving the erratic Dennis Schroder as the top threat. With Dirk Nowitzki giving it another go this season, still enough in the Dallas arsenal to get beyond this downgraded Atlanta bunch.
Teddy Covers
Houston vs. Sacramento
Pick: Over 218.5
It’s not hard to make a case for the Houston Rockets to fly Over the total against any other uptempo team, especially an uptempo team that isn’t ready to play much defense here in Game 1. Houston isn’t going to slow down their pace without Chris Paul on the floor this evening – heck, they are likely to play faster without their aging point guard with a knee injury. We know what the Rockets want to do – push the tempo and launch a barrage of three pointers, their winning formula in Golden State last night. And there’s no reason to expect the rebuilt Kings to get out and defend well in their season debut.
Sacramento is expected to play even faster this year than last. They’ll have their prime offseason acquisition -- point guard George Hill -- in the lineup this evening; a major upgrade over last year at the point. Rookie wing De’Aaron Fox, talking about what he expects after spending the preseason learning head coach Dave Joerger’s style: "We're young, but we have a few veterans. At the end of the day, we're gonna run a lot. We're extremely young team, fast, and want to get up court.”