Larry Ness
Thunder at Clippers
Pick: Clippers
Both OKC and the LAC are off to 3-0 starts and the teams meet tonight at Staples Center and one team will walk off with its first loss of the season. With Durant in Oakland, Russell Westbrook is off to an incredible start for the Thunder, averaging an NBA-high 38.7 PPG, 12.3 RPG (to rank 6th) and 11.7 APG (2nd). Westbrook is the first player in NBA history to record 100 points, 30 rebounds and 30 assists in a club's first three games. The Clippers spread things around much more, between Griffin (22.0-11.3), Paul (20.0-7.3 APG) and Jordan (10.7-13.0).
Westbrook became the first player since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar to score at least 51 points in a triple-double in a win over Phoenix on Friday and followed it up by turning in 33 points, 16 assists and 12 rebounds in a 113-96 home him over the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday. "(Westbrook is) an unbelievable player. Just the impact he has on the game in so many different areas and just the pressure he puts on defenses just alone is crazy, said Griffin. “But you kind of know that's his personality, to just go and destroy and take over. But it will be a fun challenge." Oklahoma City knows it needs to create stability around Westbrook (with Durant gone) and made some moves on Monday to ensure that Westbrook would have some familiar teammates to grow with in the coming years. Victor Oladipo (17.0 PPG) was signed to a four-year, $84 million pact and center Steven Adams (13.0-9.0) got a four-year, $100 million extension. Oladipo is just 24 and partners with Westbrook in the backcourt, while Adams is the defensive compliment to reserve center Enes Kanter (12.3-6.7), who signed an extension last year.
Griffin and Paul are LA’s stars but along with Jordan, starting guard Redick (10.0) plus reserve guards Crawford (13.7) and Rivers (11.7) are also averaging in double figures. Scoring has never been an issue for the Clippers but the team is most impressed with its defensive efforts of late. “I think they stayed engaged defensively, No. 1," coach Doc Rivers told reporters after Monday's win. “That’s what they’ve done all year, and they just kept trusting. Like, (shots are) going to fall, and eventually it started falling. Once the basket opened up, the way we were defending, we were in great shape." The Clippers held Utah to 75 points on Sunday and limited Phoenix to 36 in the first half on Monday before letting up a bit. The Clippers rank 3rd in allowing 93.0 PPG and 8th in defensive FG percentage at 42.6%. The Clippers win and move to 4-0 both SU and ATS.
SPORTS WAGERS
CLEVELAND +109 over Chicago
One really has to question the legitimacy of this betting line. Our position is that it’s not really a true line based on the pitching matchup and everything else but based more on the sportsbooks trying to protect itself against a disaster or attempting to “balance the books” and encourage money on the Indians.
We have to believe that the sportsbooks stand to lose a bloody fortune if the Cubs pull this one out. They were very likely buried in Chicago money before this series began and possibly in future bets too. There is also a very good chance that even more Chicago money came in when the Cubbies were down 1-0, 2-1 and 3-1 in the series. In a 7th game, obviously anything can happen. We have a three-unit bet on the Cubbies at -105 and we are not really comfortable with that bet so we’ll attempt to take advantage of the books being forced into posting a “wrong line” in this game.
The Cubs shook up their batting order for Game 6, as Joe Maddon slid designated hitter Kyle Schwarber, who only got one plate appearance in the three National League rules games in Chicago, into the two-hole. That pushed Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Ben Zobrist all down a slot from their usual placements. All of them mashed the ball, so this was a well-executed change and we’d expect to see the same kind of lineup in Game 7. Joe Maddon’s use of Aroldis Chapman in Game 6 is coming under heavy scrutiny today. The question now is did the Cubs and Joe Maddon win the battle but set themselves up to lose the war?
Maddon only made one truly impactful move in the larger story of the series in Game 6. With a 7-2 lead and two on with two outs in the seventh inning—a fairly low-leverage spot, likely to produce even lower leverage eighth and ninth innings, Chapman entered the game. Maddon likely could’ve made it all the way through using his medium-leverage pitchers like Carl Edwards Jr., Pedro Strop, Travis Wood, and Hector Rondon, and of course saving Chapman at that exact moment hardly precluded asking him to pitch later if a higher-leverage situation arose. Furthermore, asking Chapman for everything left in the gas tank in Game 6 obviously hurts your chances in Game 7, and could’ve even left a lesser pitcher (or a gassed Chapman) in a higher-leverage situation in later innings of Game 6. There is a somewhat persuasive counter-argument: you have to get to Game 7. Even if Cleveland’s chances to come back and win Game 6 with more conventional bullpen management were low as of Chapman’s entry, that low chance definitively ends the Cubs' season if it hits. It also would’ve kept rising exponentially with each additional baserunner. There’s no backsies here if Cleveland rallies. We would’ve preferred Maddon at least wait until the tying run got to the plate to use Chapman, but we should recognize that Chapman’s not a human cheat code that definitely gets you out of the game in that scenario. In a far more puzzling move, Chapman remained in the game to start the bottom of the ninth inning after the Cubs extended the lead to 9-2.
Terry Francona’s pitching decisions weren’t great either. Josh Tomlin, like the entirety of Cleveland’s non-Corey Kluber starting staff this postseason, had a justifiably short hook in Game 6. Francona had action behind Tomlin as early as the first inning so he knew he was playing with fire before the game even began. Francona turned the game over to Danny Salazar in the fourth and Salazar delivered two scoreless innings. Salazar missed most of September and the first two rounds of the playoffs with forearm and elbow issues, and was dreadful when he did pitch in the second half of the regular season. But if healthy, Salazar is clearly Cleveland’s second-best starter after Kluber, and placing him on the World Series roster would indicate some level of confidence in his health, which all raises an interesting question: should Salazar have started this game over Tomlin to begin with? We believe that is the biggest blunder of the series so far. Again, if Salazar was healthy enough to relieve, he was healthy enough to start so the decision to go with Tomlin instead of Salazar is where this series may have been decided…or not.
After Salazar, Francona emptied Cleveland’s bullpen of more low-leverage relievers that under no plausible circumstances will be pitching in a close Game 7: Jeff Manship, Zach McAllister, and Steve Clevinger. Outside of disaster striking, it’s honestly hard to see nine-inning scenarios in which anyone but Kluber, Miller, Allen, and Shaw pitches in Game 7, given that all three of those relievers should be ready and able to go multiple innings if necessary. That’s been Cleveland’s formula for success so far, and with Chapman being leaned on so hard over the past three days, Francona starts Game 7 in the managerial driver’s seat. Whether he can stay there might determine which team ends their drought and raises the greatest baseball flag of them all.
Lastly,, if pitching truly does overpower hitting, one really has to like the way Francona has this set up. The 3-unit gamble we have on the Cubbies is too large. We can now grab Cleveland at +109 in a game they have a significant pitching edge in. Therefore, give us the Indians for 4 units to override our 3-unit bet on the Cubs.
SPORTS WAGERS
BROOKLYN +171 over Detroit
Prejudicially, one will see Detroit come in at 3-1 and as a 2015 playoff team against a 1-3 Brooklyn squad who had one of the worst records in the league last year and say, “Easy money”. However, we urge you to take a second look. It’s convenient to go for the score on a hot team, as the Pistons have won their last three after losing to Toronto in their season opener. However, the victims are not too scary, as they include Milwaukee, Orlando and New York, three of the worst teams in the Eastern Conference in 2015.
The same sentiment cannot be yielded for Brooklyn whose 1-3 record reflects the Nets going against some premium competitors in the early going. Brooklyn owns a win at home over the Indiana Pacers, a team that also qualified for the playoffs in 2015 and a team that should certainly be regarded as a playoff contender again in 2016. Furthermore, two of Brooklyn’s three defeats came on the road where they lost by a combined seven points. To kick off 2016, Brooklyn was given the lovely assignment of tipping off their season at Boston in the TD Garden. Boston is the second choice to Cleveland to win the East. Brooklyn managed to hang 117 points on the Celtics as a double-digit pooch.
At first glance, the Pistons have appeal here but a closer look reveals that they do not. The litmus test reveals that Brooklyn has been undervalued against better opponents, which is why Brooklyn is 3-1 ATS though they are just 1-3 overall. Outside of their most recent debacle hosting Chicago on Halloween, the Nets have been in every game they lost and boast an impressive victory to their credit.
Detroit can enter this contest with whatever strategy they like, as the Nets are not going to lie down for them and will likely take it to them. Detroit has been on the road just once this season so far and they lost. Sure, it was against Toronto but Detroit wasn’t even in that game, as they lost by 18. Now there’s tremendous value on the other team from New York City, as they are off the radar, in perfect position to strike. We like the swag and the new-found attitude of these Nets and will play it accordingly.
Pass NHL
Brad Wilton
Let's hold Under the total tonight in this Toledo-Akron contest.
The Rockets can score, but the linesmakers are aware of that, and it is reflected in this total.
Toledo is on a 2-1-1 Under run their last 4 games, while host Akron has stayed Low in each of their last 4 on the season. These teams did not meet last season, but did land just over a total of 58 points back in 2013 when they combined for 60 points. Obviously, a combined total like that tonight would land well Under the posted price.
The Rockets have followed each of their last 4 straight up losses with games that have held Under the total, and they are playing this Wednesday nighter off a loss last week to Ohio University.
Don't get me wrong, there will be points scored in this one, Toledo is too good not to crack the end-zone multiple times, but I just don't think there will be enough combined points for it to head Over the total.
Rockets-Zips just Under.
2* TOLEDO-AKRON UNDER
Eric Schroeder
My free play for Wednesday is on the Los Angeles Lakers against the Atlanta Hawks, as I love this double-digit underdog.
One thing I've learned about this Lakers team early on, is the most important thing on this team that is different than last season is youth. It can be good, and it can be bad. For this team it's a plus.
Last year the Lakers were too focused on the Kobe farewell tour. This year, it's about the new era, and I like what I've seen, particularly in the season-opening win over the Houston Rockets, and last night's loss in Indiana. This team is not messing around this year, and could very well will its way back into the postseason.
The fact the Lakers were in last night game against the Pacers till the waning moments is impressive alone. They caught +8.5 and lost by 7, but this was closer than that margin, as the Lakers had it down to a one-possession game with less than a minute to go.
If this were last year, no way I'd play them on second of back-to-back nights, after losing a tough one and then having to play another tough Eastern Conference foe like Atlanta. But this is the new era, and that's where the benefit of playing the youth comes in.
I'll take a shot with the underdog in this one.
2* L.A. LAKERS
Brett Atkins
Wednesday's comp play will be for the Atlanta Hawks to continue their nice early season run with another blowout win, this time over the Los Angeles Lakers.
The Lakers opened the season with a home win over Houston for new coach Luke Walton, but they come to Atlanta with 3 straight road losses under their belts, and they did just play last night at Indiana.
The Hawks have played 3 games, and have won and covered ALL 3 thus far. Atlanta's wins have all come by double-digits, so no surprise to see another blowout win for the Hawks at home tonight.
Atlanta has won the last 3 in the series, and 5 of the last 7 overall straight up. Last season, the Hawks 2 wins came by 13 and 29-points, so go right ahead and lay the double-digits tonight with the Hawks to get the job done!
5* ATLANTA
Bob Valentino
My free winner is in Game 7 of the World Series. On the heels of telling you the Chicago Cubs would force this decisive game, I'm now telling you the Cleveland Indians add another championship to the city's trophy case. Just a little more than four months after the Cavaliers hoisted a trophy, it'll be the Tribe, with Corey Kluber winning the game and the MVP trophy.
The guy pitched brilliantly all season, he won the All-Star Game for the American League, which is why the Indians are at home tonight and he threw in Games 1 and 4 in this series, winning both. The guy has been unconscious, and will once again deliver.
The right-hander has been masterful in the World Series, and should be fine despite returning on short rest for a third start in the winner-take-all Game 7. The Indians' ace has a stifling 0.89 ERA in five starts this postseason.
Good luck next year Cubs fans, this one is going to Cleveland.
3* CLEVELAND
David Banks
Toledo @ Akron
Pick: Over 72.5
It’s MAC football on Wednesday night when perennial conference power Toledo (6-2) travels to Akron (5-4). Zips head coach Terry Bowden has done an admirable job of bringing the Akron program back to respectability and a win over the Rockets would validate his efforts. Akron is coming off of a 41-20 loss to Buffalo, a game that Bowden would love to have back. The Zips sit in second place in the East division, one game behind leader Ohio.
Toledo is in a similar spot in the West sitting one game behind 17th-ranked Western Michigan. The Rockets face the Broncos in their regular season finale at the end of the month but cannot look too far ahead. First, they must get past the Zips and they will do so with a very powerful offense that averages 544.4 yards of total offense per game. Quarterback Logan Woodside (2,715 passing yards, 31 TDs) leads the country’s eighth-best passing offense. Toledo is not just a passing offense either. Running back Kareem Hunt has rushed for 790 yards and Terry Swanson has added 440 more. Toledo can beat you in air or on the ground.
Akron can generate some offense too. The Zips average 35.1 points per game. The problem for Bowden is the defense. Akron gives up 34.2 points a game, 108th in the nation. If Akron cannot slow down the Toledo offense, they are in for a shootout. It will be up to QB Thomas Woodson (1,763 passing yards, 16 TDs) to help the Zips match the scoring of the up-tempo Rockets.
Harry Bondi
CHARLOTTE -12.5 over Philadelphia
Hard to believe but this will be the winless Sixers first road game of the season and they run into a Charlotte team that will be one of the NBA’s most improved teams in 2016-7. Charlotte covered three of their four games with Philadelphia last year, including both at home, and do it again tonight!
Bob Balfe
Cubs -115
One of these cities is going to go nuts tonight and break a long curse. Chicago has not won a World Series for over 100 years. This Cubs team is one game away from getting that monkey off their back. Kyle Hendricks has been amazing this season and has ice in his veins. You will not get the feeling this guy even knows what is on the line for tonight. Chicago has woken up with their bats and it’s pretty scary that the middle of the order now is on fire. I made a mistake of going against the momentum when the Rangers blew the series against the Cubs. I can’t go against the hot team right now. This is going to be one of the best MLB Games of our lives.
Anthony Michael
Toledo -9
This one is screaming Rockets blow out win. Toledo is has covered 8 of their last 9 road games and the Zips have failed to cover in their last 6 home underdog roles. Toledo comes into this one off of a SU loss as a 16 point favorite so look for them to be extra motivated here. Akron needs a win to become bowl eligible and they have their sights set on next weeks game against struggling Bowling Green to nab a win, not on this one.