John Martin
Suns vs. Wizards
Play: Suns +12½
The Phoenix Suns have been a completely different team since firing Earl Watson and sending Eric Bledsoe home. They have come together as a team while going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games. They beat the Kings 117-115 and the Jazz 97-88 at home, while only losing 107-114 in Portland as 12-point dogs. Then they upset the Nets 122-114 as 4.5-point road dogs last night. Now they are catching 12.5 points against the Washington Wizards Wednesday.
Mike Lundin
Atlanta at Philadelphia
Play: Atlanta +8
The Atlanta Hawks opened the season with a 117-111 win at Dallas, but they've dropped six straight games (1-4-1 ATS) since. Those results are the reason why we're getting a bunch of points and good value on the Hawks here at Philadelphia Wednesday night.
Philly is coming off back-to-back wins in Texas, beating both Dallas and Houston, and it would be quite easy for them to look past the lowly Hawks here. We can also note that the 76ers are 0-2 at home this season, falling to Boston and Houston despite holding second-half leads. The Hawks can't keep losing forever, and I expect them to at the very least make this a competitive game and cover the spread.
The Hawks have won and covered the spread in seven straight head-to-head meetings.
Doug Upstone
Penguins vs. Oilers
Play: Oilers -109
Edmonton was favored to win the Pacific Division, but they have started 3-7 SU. Among the losses was one to tonight's opponent Pittsburgh eight days ago and they are coming off bad home defeat to Washington by 5-2 score. As terrible as that sounds, home favorites of -200 or less like the Oilers, revenging a loss of one goal, off a home loss by two goals or more, they are 51-16 since 2013.
Jack Jones
Chicago vs. Miami
Play: Miami -9.5
The Miami Heat will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. They have lost three straight to three of the best teams in the league in San Antonio, Boston and Minnesota coming in. But now they have a chance to take out their frustration on arguably the worst team in the NBA in the Chicago Bulls.
The Bulls are just 1-4 this season and missing several key pieces due to either injury or suspension. Their only win came against the Atlanta Hawks at home, and the Hawks would give them a run for their money as the league's worst team. The other four games have resulted in losses by an average of 16.5 points per game.
Hassan Whiteside has missed the past five games due to an injury, but he may return tonight. The Heat also got good news on the injury front with Goran Dragic listed as probable with an illness. The Heat are close to getting back to full strength now. They probably don't need to be to beat the Bulls by double-digits tonight.
Dave Price
Magic vs. Grizzlies
Play: Magic +4
The Orlando Magic have been one of the biggest surprises of the young season. Frank Vogel is getting the most out of this team in his second season there. The Magic are 5-2 with their only two losses coming on the road by 7 and 5 points. They have also beaten Cleveland by 21 on the road and San Antonio by 27 at home to really flash their potential. They also beat the Pelicans by 16 on the road last time out. I'm starting to believe it's not a fluke. The Grizzlies have injury problems everywhere with JaMychal Green and Wayne Selden out, and both stalwarts Marc Gasol and Mike Conley questionable for this game. I'll take my chances with the Magic tonight whether or not those two play.
Red Dog Sports
Astros vs. Dodgers
Play:Dodgers -151
The Dodgers opened around -125 last night. LA is at home and has momentum after winning last night 3-1. Houston has never won a World Series and should feel plenty of pressure. The Astros need someone like Jose Altuve, Correa or George Springer to step up and shock the world but I like the Dodgers to win.
SPORTS WAGERS
SAN JOSE -1½ +217 over Nashville
The Predators have created less scoring chances than any team in the NHL. That’s right, in scoring chances per 60 minutes, Nashville is dead last. That does not bode well here against this defense or Martin Jones. Nashville has been absolutely dominated on the road with a 2-4 record but the two wins, a 1-0 victory in Philadelphia and a 2-1 victory in Chicago were both luck driven. Nashville created two high quality scoring chances the entire game in Philadelphia and fired away a mere 20 shots on net in Chicago. The Preds are playing a weak brand of hockey and have paid the price a few times already this year. Their goaltending is also weak.
There are many ways to handicap games. Some handicapper’s use trends, some use analytics, some look at recent results and play current form, some monitor the lines all day and play accordingly and some use a combination of everything. There are even a few geniuses out there who think they can predict the outcome using computer generated results. Whatever way you choose is up to you but what all of the above do not include is the human element and in that regard, one cannot take the human element out of anything. There is not a computer program or a statistic that takes that into consideration but we do. We’re always looking for strong situational plays because they win a high percentage of the time. That brings us to the Sharkies.
In the last meeting between these two teams last season, Nashville defeated San Jose, 7-2 in late March. Blowouts occur and teams win with dignity and lose with dignity but the Sharks were furious, especially coach Peter DeBoer, who accused the Preds of “rubbing it in”. The Preds were over-celebrating the last two goals and nothing irks a team that is on the losing end of a blowout more than that. Peter DeBoer is an even-keeled coach that is probably the least animated coach in the game. Dude looks like math professor behind the bench so when he says something about a certain display, you know it irked him. The Sharks will be ready tonight, that you can bet on.
Aside from that, the Sharks are becoming a serious force. The Sharks are 6-3-0 in their last nine games, and they’ve been competitive in every one. In each of the three losses, they outshot their opponent. In each of the three losses, they were within one goal late in the game. Over the nine games, they’ve given up a paltry 19 goals, and two were empty net scores. Excluding the empty net goals against, San Jose has allowed three or more goals only once in the last nine games. This is a smothering defense that is not only preventing goals but the offense is generating outstanding chances and possession time in the offensive end and they haven’t even hit their stride yet. Brent Burns, Joe Thornton, and Joe Pavelski – have just five goals between them, and Pavelski’s minus-3 is the best rating of the trio. The second line featuring Logan Couture has been one of the best puck possession lines in the NHL thus far. These Sharks are seriously good and this is a game their well-liked coach has emphasized. A response is in order and even if it wasn’t, San Jose hates this rival and they couldn’t have hand-picked a riper team to beat up on.
New Jersey +112 over VANCOUVER
OT included. Almost everything about these two teams are equal. They are both early season surprises with the Devils sporting an 8-2 record after 10 games and the Canucks sporting a 6-3-2 record after 11 games. Analytically speaking, the two teams are close in just about every key category too. That makes the game a virtual toss-up in terms of predicting which team is going to win but the Devils have been so good on the road and they’re also taking back a tag. That makes them playable. The Devils have a 6-2 win in Buffalo, a 6-3 win in Toronto, a 3-2 victory at Madison Square Gardens and finally a 5-4 OT win in Ottawa. They are 4-0 on the road and will now make its first extended road trip of the season and we have to trust that this is a loose bunch that can’t wait to get to the rink tonight. The Devils are scoring a slew of goals and, that, too, is legit. The Devils won’t continue to score goals at this pace but they are no longer the team that can’t come back from a one-goal deficit or a team that is going to grind out 2-1 or 3-2 victories anymore.
The Canucks are playing exciting hockey worth watching and doing so while relying on a group of strong young talent. They have been and will likely continue to be a live dog but the favorite role is different. They are not a strong possession team, as their 27th ranking will attest to and they’re probably the second best team in this matchup. The Devils have an offensive edge, a goaltending edge and defensively, they have allowed the second fewest high danger scoring chances against. This is a strong pup in a good spot.
SPORTS WAGERS
Houston +143 over L.A. DODGERS
We have the Astros in the series and if you played them to win the series before Game 6, you would’ve been forced to lay -240. The oddsmakers take into consideration that a Game 7 was certainly possible but had no fear in offering up the Dodgers at +225 prior to last night’s game. Today, you’ll have to spot -155 to get behind the Dodgers, which is a difference of 380 after their Game 6 victory. Thus, if we’re sticking to playing or recommending value, the Astros are the only play here. This is the biggest price of the series so far and it’s not warranted.
Through six games, this World Series has had quite a few narratives and interesting strategies in play. The most controversial of these has been bullpen usage and, increasingly, the tactical decisions of both managers have been driven by which pitchers are trusted at any given time. The usual duo of elite late-inning relief arms for the Astros, closer Ken Giles and setup man Chris Devenski, never before have pitched this deep in the season. Consequently, both have looked completely gassed for weeks, and are carrying postseason ERAs north of nine. Without his big relief horses performing, Houston manager A.J. Hinch has been left guessing whom to use at any given time. However, Game 6 gave him a rare advantage, as Justin Verlander was pitching the best baseball of his career and likely to pitch fairly deep into the game. The Dodgers bullpen, believed to be their key advantage a week ago, was also blown out by the end of Game 5.
The Dodgers bullpen is really the key reason why L.A. is favored by this much. Dave Roberts suggested before Game 6 that closer Kenley Jansen might only be available for three outs instead of the six he’s often been asked to get in key postseason spots. Jansen has been less than his usually unhittable self recently, and not without reason; he’d already thrown 5.2 innings over its first five games. But Jansen might be the best reliever in the league, and at the end of the day he’s the man you’re going to trust for two innings for your season. Jansen cruised through two perfect innings on only 19 pitches, and now Roberts gains a new tactical weapon for Game 7: the bullpen services of Clayton Kershaw, the greatest pitcher on the planet, in one game for all of the marbles. However, there’s also a chance that the Astros put up some runs before Kershaw is called upon.
Other than a brief hiccup with a sore shoulder, Yu Darvish has a strong season. His command has been good in the postseason but a fly-ball % spike in a home-run dominated series is an issue. Fly-balls (and thus HR’s) are part of the package. Yu Darvish is an ace but he’s blown up this year and he’s blown up in the past in the postseason so he’s a risky ace. In three starts this postseason, he has a 4.15/4.29 ERA/xERA split. Last year for Texas in a big post-season game, he lasted five frames after surrendering five hits and four jacks. Darvish has pitched in five postseason games and his ERA over that span is 5.28. The big stage might not be his forte.
Lance McCullers Jr. made two starts for the Astros in their series win over the Yankees. He was one of the reasons that the Astronauts won. He pitched to a 1.20 ERA in those two starts. He also faced the Dodgers back in Houston in Game 3 and only surrendered four hits in 5.1 innings before being pulled. The Astros won that game 5-3. When he’s on, Lance McCullers is one of the top young starters in the game this season. Check out his nasty combination of strikeouts and groundballs: 10.2 K’s/9, 63% grounders. In fact, McCullers has become one of the most effective RHers in the game against southpaws. The only chink in his armor is some spotty control issues, which have been the result of falling behind hitters (56% first-pitch strike rate). His elite groundball tilt makes up for his inconsistency with pounding the strike zone and it’s a gamble one should be willing to take. We’re not betting this game because we have the Astronauts for 2 units to win it and we’re not willing to risk 4 units on something so close. If we’re all being totally honest, there was nothing really incredible or astonishing about last night’s Game 6. We can’t get a Game 2 or a Game 5 for every game, but there’s nothing wrong with being the bridge to a Game 7. These are two 100-win teams that have played incredibly entertaining baseball at a high level for six games. Maybe Game 6 was the calm, sunny bridge that these two teams needed to cross before going into the storm that is the one-game winner-take-all finale of the 2017 season. In that regard, we have no regrets or concerns in needing the Astros to cash out ticket. Recommendation: Houston +152.
NO BETS ONLY BECAUSE WE HAVE HOUSTON IN THE SERIES ALREADY.
Big Al
Philadelphia vs. Chicago
Pick: Chicago -132
The Flyers come into this game having lost three of their last four games, with the last one having the dubious distinction of being the only game won so far this season by the Arizona Coyotes. This after the Flyers went 4-2 in their first six games (5-3 in their first eight). On Saturday, the Flyers lost their second top defenseman when talented Shayne Gostisbehere was checked hard into the glass and suffered an upper body injury with possible concussion symptoms. Gostisbehere was having a huge comeback season after a rough sophomore campaign (he is tied for third in the league in assists), but didn't travel with the team on this trip and doesn't have a timetable for a return. The Hawks have struggled against Western Conference clubs and will welcome a game against an Eastern team at home tonight. This has been a very host-friendly series as the home team is 21-6 in the last 27 meetings.
Will Rogers
Nashville vs. San Jose
Pick: San Jose -130
The set-up: The 5-4-2 Nashville Predators will visit SAP Center in San Jose on Wednesday night to take on the 6-5-0 Sharks, who continue a five-game homestand. San Jose returned from a five-game road trip (3-2-0) with a 3-2 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs on Monday night. The Predators kick off a four-game road trip here in San Jose, coming off arguably their worst game of the season, a 6-2 home loss to the New York Islanders on Saturday.
Nashville: "We've had a lot of good games where we haven't gotten points, and a couple of bad ones that we just have to forget about," Nashville forward Filip Forsberg told the team's official website. "We've been playing really well for periods of games and slipping down periods, too." Clearly, the team's loss to the Islanders will be filed under "a couple of bad ones!" Forsberg leads the Predators with eight goals and 13 points this season. Backup goalie Juuse Saros gave up a career-high six goals in the loss to the Islanders, so expect Pekka Rinne (5-1-2 with a 1.86 GAA and .940 save percentage) to be in net tonight.
San Jose: Speaking of goalies, Martin Jones allowed eight goals while losing his first two games this season but has surrendered nine goals in his last six games, en route to a 5-1-0 record. After a 1-3 start, San Jose believes it has turned a corner and the Sharks are ready to play the of solid hockey that has defined them as one of the league's better teams for more than a decade.
The pick: San Jose dropped two of three against Nashville last season but is eager to get the better of the team that advanced to the Stanley Cup Finals last year (Sharks were there the previous season). Rinne is 11-6-4 with a 1.83 GAA and a .943 save percentage in his career as a starter when facing the Sharks but despite a 1.62 GAA in his last five starts in San Jose, he owns just a 1-4-0 record. I'll back the red-hot Jones and the Sharks in this one.
Executive Sports
Portland vs. Utah
Play: Utah -3.5
Play On Home favorites (UTAH) marginal winning team from last season who won between 51% and 60% of their games, vs. division opponents. (27-7, 79% over the last 5 seasons.)
Bob Balfe
Astros / Dodgers Over 7.5
I can’t help but think this is going to be a pitcher by committee type of game where both teams use as many combinations as they can to frustrate the other team. That might however backfire This is going to be a Hollywood ending not just because of the Hollywood crowd. As a fan I would really love to see Houston get a championship, but I do think LA is the better team. Both teams have tremendously clutch hitters. This is going to be one heck of all battle. This postseason and this series has really done well for the MLB brand itself. The MLB gets an A Plus. Let’s look for a higher scoring game.
Harry Bondi
CENTRAL MICHIGAN (+3.5) over Western Michigan
We will ride with the sharps who have bet this line down to + 3.5 from the opening line of +7. What they realize is that the Chippewas are the better team getting points and are coming off their best performance of the season a 56-9 drilling of Ball State. Chips playing with revenge for a 40-10 thumping last year and visitor has covered 5 straight in this series and gets the money again tonight.
Rocketman
Toronto @ Denver
Play: Denver -1.5
The Toronto Raptors travel to Denver to take on the Nuggets on Wednesday night. Toronto is 4-2 SU overall this year while Denver comes in with a 3-4 SU overall record on the season. Denver is scoring 107.2 points per game their past 5 games overall. Denver is allowing only 94 points per game at home this season. Denver is 27-13 ATS last 40 meetings overall vs Toronto. Denver is 4-0 ATS last 3 years in all meetings vs Toronto. I like the Nuggets at home here. We'll recommend a small play on Denver tonight!
Pro Computer Gambler
Astros vs. Dodgers
Play: Dodgers -1½
The game now is difficult to prediction, but my lean.....a sort of weak lean so I am giving my thoughts out free.....is on the Dodgers: Here are some important factors to consider: *The Astros are 5-15 SU (+36% roi fade) since Sep 18, 2016 as a road dog Fade Astros*The Astros are 8-21 AGAINST since Sep 07, 2016 as a dog Fade Astros*KEY SYSTEM: Since 2004, in the playoffs, a hot team off of 2+ straight wins in their last 3 games is 243-197 55.2% +50.57 units SU +9.1% roi when facing a cold team off of 2 or fewer wins in their last 3 games. (Take the Dodgers)+2 other big systems FOR the Dodgers (systems, not trends) ...but then we have this beast of a system liking the Astros:Since 2008, Championship Series or World Series teams off of a loss are 93-62 +29.58 units (+15.9% roi) SU...on the blind. (Play the Astros is the main conflict) Although....if you dissect that one, it completely flips to 2-9 SU (+42.5% roi fade ML / +84.7% roi fade RL) looking only at World Series games, later in the series, road teams only averaging at least a half a run negative run per game SU margin in their last 4 games. The Astros fit that bill as a fade. If the Dodgers win here, I think it'll be a 2+ run line win, but do consider the -1 or -1.25 asian handicap and go light on this one.