Chris Jordan
The Tampa Bay Rays owe me big time after last night's collapse over the final two innings. And I'm still in revenge-mode, as it'll be the name of the game once again since the Toronto Blue Jays just took a series between the American League East rivals.
Nothing has changed from last night's thought process, as the Rays need to wake up and do something about this 15-22 slide since the All-Star break if they want to become relevant in the A.L. wild-card race.
Tampa Bay is just four games out of the second American League wild-card position, and it is catching the Jays at Tropicana Field at the right time.
Toronto arrived in central Florida, reeling after being swept by the defending World Series champion Chicago Cubs in a three-game weekend series. Now the Jays have lost four in a row.
Toronto holds 9-8 advantage in the season series, but with a sweep, the Rays take the season series by a game. I like them to get it done tonight.
5* RAYS
Jack Brayman
My free winner for Wednesday is on the New York Yankees over the Detroit Tigers, and we're going to lay the Run Line in this game.
Since every MLB wager on a run line or total auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure the two pitchers on your ticket, when making this play, are Luis Severino and Jordan Zimmerman. If they are not the pitchers of record when making your play, disregard this play.
Once the Yankees builds an early lead for Severino, the right-hander who has won five of his last six outings will take over to seal the win. Severino has held opponents to 10 earned runs (2.48 ERA) and 29 hits (.204 BA) over 36.1 innings during that six-game span. Severino will be ready to neutralize the Tigers.
Meanwhile, after three straight seven-inning quality starts, Zimmermann has been tagged for seven runs in back-to-back outings. Now he faces a dangerous lineup like the Yankees?
Take the road team big.
1* YANKEES
Jeff Benton
Your Wednesday freebie is the Yankees on the Run Line over the Tigers.
New York and Aaron Judge have to feel like an albatross has been taken off their backs, as Judge was able - with the help of skipper Joe Girardi - to end his strikeout record of 37 games in a row last night, and his team was able to slug their way to a whopping 13 runs, as they kept pace in the A.L. East race.
Look for the Yankees to play loose-and-free again tonight as they have their ace Luis Severino mound-bound.
Sevvy was able to shake off his worst start of the season against the Red Sox his last time out with 6-plus innings of solid ball against the Mets, as he allowed just an unearned run and fanned 9 batters.
Jordan Zimmerman will counter for the Tigers, and he is 0-2 his last 3 starts with a whopping 17 runs allowed in just 15-plus innings of work.
The Tigers are on a 3-13 nosedive, and I don't see that changing tonight.
Yankees in a pound-job.
3* N.Y. YANKEES -1.5
Brad Wilton
Wednesday's comp play will be to side once again with Corey Kluber to help keep his team Under the total as the Indians play the Red Sox.
Kluber has allowed 3 runs or less in 14 of his last 15 starts this season, and the Under is 3-1 his last 4 trips to the hill. At Progressive Field his ERA is 2.09 for the year, and 7 of his 11 home starts have ended up holding Under the total.
Boston will go with Drew Pomeranz who has an ERA of 2.20 for his last 3 starts, and while he did leave his last start against the Yankees after just 3-plus innings, he has allowed 2 runs or less in 9 of his last 12 starts.
I think we see a game in which both pitchers come out on top of their games, and the runs are scarce.
Let's go with Boston and Cleveland to hold Under the total on Wednesday night.
3* BOSTON-CLEVELAND UNDER
Eric Schroeder
My free play is on the Washington Nationals, who are in Houston for an Interleague battle with the Astros, pitting two of the best hitting teams in baseball and a pair of division leaders.
And I'm sorry, but I just can't buy into the Nationals getting this big a price, as I'm seeing the line between +145 and +150. In this one, list both scheduled starters: Edwin Jackson and Mike Fiers.
Looking to continue his run of efficiency and effectiveness, Jackson limited the Padres to just one run in his previous start, needing a mere 83 pitches to get through seven innings. In six starts with the Nationals, the veteran right-hander has a 2.92 ERA. Tonight he'll be much better than the books expect.
Meanwhile, Fiers has been dealt a loss in four of his past five starts, despite showing improvement on Thursday, when he was tagged for seven hits and three runs while striking out seven over 5.1 innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks. He is now 0-2 with a 7.04 ERA in his last three starts.
Play the Nationals at a ridiculous value and list both.
4* NATIONALS
SCOTT RICKENBACH
A's vs. Orioles
Play:A's +170
Since the All Star break Daniel Gossett has been rock solid in 3 of his 4 starts for the Athletics including each of his 2 road starts. Overall, in all 3 outings he allowed a total of just 6 earned runs on only 15 hits in 20 innings of solid work. That equates to a 2.70 ERA in those 3 starts and Gossett now makes his first ever start against the Orioles. Baltimore's lack of familiarity with him will work to his advantage. Conversely, Dylan Bundy (whom admittedly has been pitching very well) just faced the A's less than 2 weeks ago. Oakland got to Bundy for 2 homers in that game and they'll take advantage of getting a quick "second look" at him in this rematch coming just 11 days later. The Orioles are just 5-9 the last two weeks and yet they're very nearly a 2 to 1 favorite here! The A's are absolutely worth a look here given the generous underdog price being offered and the fact that Gossett has been pitching very well on the road in recent outings.
BRANDON LEE
Yankees -1½ -115
New York is worth a look here on the run line Wednesday night in Detroit. The Yankees got the bats going with 13 runs on 16 hits in a 9-run win last night. They are in a prime spot to build in on that momentum with their ace Luis Severino on the mound. Severino is 10-5 with a 3.18 ERA in 24 starts on the season and is 5-1 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in 13 road starts. As for the Tigers, they are in a free fall, having lost 9 of their last 11 games. They send out Jordan Zimmermann, who has been a major disappointment with a 5.87 ERA in 24 starts. He's got a 6.00 ERA in 11 road starts and has allowed 14 runs on 18 hits in his last 2 starts.
Rocketman
Chicago at Cincinnati
Play: Chicago -139
The Chicago Cubs travel to Cincinnati to take on the Reds on Wednesday night. The Chicago Cubs are 67-57 SU overall this year while Cincinnati comes in with a 53-73 SU overall record on the season. Asher Wojciechowski is 2-2 with a 7.39 ERA overall this year, 2-1 with a 5.21 ERA at home this season and 2-1 with a 6.90 ERA his last 3 starts. Wojciechowski is 0-1 with a 17.17 ERA in his one career start vs the Cubs. Chicago Cubs are scoring 6.9 runs per game their past 7 games overall and 5.4 runs per game against division opponents this season. Cincinnati is allowing 5.6 runs per game overall this year, 5.4 runs per game at home this season, 7.1 runs per game their past 7 games overall, 5.5 runs per game on grass and 5.8 runs per game against division opponents. Chicago Cubs are 37-15 overall vs Cincinnati the past 3 years. Cubs are 12-2 this year on the road when the total is 10 to 10 1/2. Chicago Cubs are 68-26 last 3 years as a road favorite of -125 to -175. Cincinnati is 2-11 last 3 years and 2-8 this year at home when the total is 10 to 10 1/2. Cincinnati is 8-24 this year against left handed starters. We'll recommend a small play on the Chicago Cubs tonight!
JOSEPH D'AMICO
Washington vs. Houston
Play: Washington +151
With yesterday's 4-3 victory, Washington has now taken 9 straight over Houston. The Nationals own an NL best, 40-23 road record, as they average over 5.27 RPG as a guest. Edwin Jackson has won b-2-b starts as the RH improved to 4-2 with a 3.43 mark on the campaign. Mike Fiers has gotten "lit-up" over his L5 turns, going 0-4, with a whopping, 7.36 ERA, to bring the RH's record up to 7-8, with a 4.32 ERA. Washington is 4-0 their L4 gammas played vs. RH starters, 5-1 their L6 games played on the road, and 7-0 their L7 games played in Houston. T
DENNIS MACKLIN
Blue Jays vs. Rays
Play: Under 8½
Neither team is hitting a lick (Toronto .244, Tampa Bay .217 L7) and both are scoring less than four runs a game over that time period. The Jays are on a current run of 8-3 to the Under while the Rays are 15-4 Under for the entire month of August. Looking at tonight's starters, Marcus Stroman (13-7, 2.99) has been good all year and has been especially sharp of late off three straight quality starts with a 1.71 ERA. Austin Pruitt's numbers are skewed from a bad outing vs. Seattle in last but the Under is 6-0 in is starts since being called up. Runs will be at a premium here.
JIMMY BOYD
Rockies vs. Royals
Play: Royals -128
I like the value here with Kansas City as a short home favorite against the Rockies. The Royals have won two straight and are 6-3 over their last 9 games. Colorado on the other hand has dropped 3 straight and are a mere 3-8 in their last 11. A struggling offense has been the problem for the Rockies, who have scored 3 or fewer runs in 10 of their last 14.
I'll roll the dice here with a struggling Ian Kennedy and count on the Royals offense to do enough damage to get the win. KC will be facing Antonio Senzatela, who has a 5.05 ERA and 1.463 WHIP in 8 road starts and a 5.79 ERA and 1.643 WHIP in his last 3 outings.
Rockies are 9-28 in their last 37 road games after a 5-game stretch in which their bullpen posted an ERA of 7.00 or worse. Colorado is also a mere 4-17 in their last 21 road games against a right-handed starters. Royals are 7-3 in their last 10 interleague home games against a team with a winning record and 6-1 in Kennedy's last 7 starts on 4 days of rest.
MARK FRANCO
Arizona at New York
Play: Arizona -164
The Arizona Diamondbacks have dominated the New York Mets of late, winning all five encounters in 2017 and 10 of their last 11 overall dating back to the 2016 season. The visiting Diamondbacks look to continue their good fortune against the Mets on Wednesday when the teams play the third contest of a four-game series at Citi Field.
Godley dropped his second straight decision and fell to 2-5 in his last nine outings on Friday after allowing four runs on nine hits over 5 1/3 innings of a 10-3 loss at Minnesota. The 27-year-old surrendered two homers for the second time in three trips to the mound, but pitched considerably better in his previous encounter with the Mets. Godley permitted one run on one hit, but saw his pitch count elevate after issuing a season-high five walks in a no-decision versus New York on May 15.
Flexen sustained his first loss in nearly a month on Friday despite working at least five innings for the third straight outing. The 23-year-old has been plagued by a lack of control, as he issued four walks for the third time in five starts in Friday's 3-1 setback versus Miami. Flexen, who will be making his sixth career start overall and first against Arizona, has pitched better at home (1-1, 4.91 ERA) than on the road (1-1, 8.18).
Diamondbacks are 5-1 in Godleys last 6 starts vs. National League East. Mets are 3-13 in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Diamondbacks are 10-1 in the last 11 meetings.
Larry Ness
Toronto vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Toronto -109
The Blue Jays are fading out of the AL wild card race with four straight losses to start their road trip, as they continue this three-game series at Tropicana Field with the Tampa Bay Rays on Wednesday. The Rays won 6-3 last night in the series opener and coupled with a 3-0 shutout of Seattle on Sunday, have put together back-to-back wins for the first time since opening August with three consecutive victories. Tampa Bay is 62-65 on the season and is currently four games back in the race for the American League’s second wild card spot, while Toronto is two games back of the Rays, as well as six back of the No. 2 wild card spot. The problem looming for both clubs is the sheer volume of teams in the wild card chase. The Rays are one of five teams vying for that spot, followed by Baltimore (a half-game back of the Rays) and Toronto. That makes seven teams, all within six games of that final wild card spot.
Marcus Stroman (11-6, 2.99 ERA) comes in off three straight quality starts and six in his last eight games overall (Jays are 5-3 in that stretch). He'll be opposed by Tampa Bay rookie Austin Pruitt (6-4, 5.37 ERA). Pruitt pitched a career-high seven innings last time out against Seattle but also allowed six runs on 11 hits and two walks in a 7-1 loss this past Friday. This will be his first career start against Toronto, although he is 1-0 with a 4.26 ERA in three previous relief appearances against the Blue Jays. Returning to Stroman, he limited Tampa Bay to two runs on six hits over 6.1 innings last Wednesday in a 3-2 Toronto victory. Stroman is 5-4 with a 4.04 ERA in 10 career starts against the Rays (team is 5-5).
I favor Stroman over the rookie Pruitt, who owns a 1.50 WHIP and .302 BAA to go along with that 5.37 ERA. Play the Blue Jays.
Power Sports
Toronto vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay +105
The Rays came through for me last night w/ a 6-5 win over the Jays. That series opener was a big revenge spot for the home team as not only did they lose three of four to their division rival last week, but one of those matchups (finale) featured the identical pitching matchup of Archer vs. Rowley. As expected, Archer pitched well as he allowed just three runs (two unearned) and four hits in six innings. Though, on paper, the pitching matchup does NOT appear to be in their favor tonight, I still prefer the Rays here.
As I've been writing about recently, the chase for the AL's second Wild Card spot remains very wide open. Eight teams are now separated by six games. But it is Toronto at the "back of the pack" and their ugly -82 YTD run differential seems to confirm that they are indeed the "worst of the lot." It appears as if some "sharper dollars" have come in on the Rays in the early morning, which mirrors up w/ my handicapping of the matchup. Toronto has lost four straight and tends to give up a lot of runs on the road (5.1 per game). Yes, they have Marcus Stroman starting tonight - and he did beat the Rays last week - but the Rays offense is better now w/ Kevin Kiermaier back in the lineup.
Tampa Bay's Austin Pruitt has won just one of his five starts since his formal integration into the starting rotation, which occurred after the All-Star Break. But - save for his last start, he's generally pitched well. This will be Toronto's 1st time seeing him. Note Pruitt had been a pretty significant dog on the ML in each of his first five starts, which included matchups against the likes of Sale, Kluber and Keuchel! No wonder he has a losing team start record. But here he's facing probably his weakest opponent to date. As I mentioned yday, the Rays have the edge in the bullpen as well. He was shaky last night, but closer Alex Colome leads all of MLB w/ 37 saves.
Will Rogers
Dodgers vs. Pirates
Pick: Pirates +1.5
The set-up: The Los Angeles Dodgers placed 14-game winner Alex Wood and rookie standout Cody Bellinger (34 HRs) on the 10-day disabled list Tuesday, then went out and beat Pittsburgh 8-5 for the team's 23rd win in its last 27 games. Los Angeles is 89-35, 13 1/2 games better than the Astros, who own MLB's second-best record at 76-49. Houston is on pace for 98 wins but has been left in the dust by the Dodgers. Pittsburgh seemed to be making a run in the NL Central a few weeks ago but has now lost eight of 10 to drop eight games behind first-place Chicago in the division and 8 1/2 games out of a final wild card spot, as well.
The pitching matchup: Rich Hill (9-4 & 3.54 ERA) takes the mound in this third contest of a four-game series for LA and will be opposed by Pittsburgh rookie Trevor Williams (5-6 & 4.71 ERA). Rich Hill takes an unbeaten streak of eight straight starts into Wednesday's contest, after he improved to 5-0 since July 1 (Dodgers are 7-1) by limiting the Tigers to three runs on six hits over five innings of a an 8-5 LA win last Friday in Detroit. Hill has made eight career starts against Pittsburgh, posting a 3-1 record and 3.69 ERA (teams are 5-3). Williams matched his worst start of the year when he was rocked for eight runs on seven hits in three innings by the St. Louis Cardinals last Friday (Cards won 11-10). Unfortunately, those are identical numbers to his line in a drubbing at the hands of the Dodgers in Los Angeles back on May 8 of 12-1 Pittsburgh loss.
The pick: I guess one could just play the Dodgers each and every day, as they are plus-$3535 vs. the moneyline (at $100/game), a whopping $2280 better than Milwaukee, which owns MLB's second-best moneyline mark. However, I'm going to take 1 1/2 runs here with the Pirates and note that while Williams was 'lit up' in his last outing (while lasting just three innings), in each of his previous four appearances, and in 10 of his previous 11, he had surrendered fewer than four ERs. Fingers crossed!