Brandon Lee
Braves vs. Rockies
Play: Rockies -1½
Colorado has managed to score exactly 3 runs in 3 straight games, including each of the first two here at home in their current series against the Braves. I'm confident that streak will be broken and in a big way on Wednesday against Atlanta starter Mike Foltynewicz, who is not in good form right now with a 8.31 ERA and 1.923 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Coors Field is the last place you want to take the mound with less than your best stuff. While the offense figures to get going, Rockies starter Jon Gray is the ideal guy to have on the mound to keep Atlanta's offense in check. Gray has enjoyed the challenge of pitching at Coors Field and has a 3.00 ERA in his 4 starts at home this season. It's also worth noting the Rockies are 11-4 in their last 15 home games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 5-0 in Gray's last 5 home starts.
Steve Janus
Cardinals vs. Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -148
Play On - Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (BOSTON) - average AL offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against a good NL starter (ERA 3.70 or less). This system is 52-17 (75%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons.
ASA
Orioles vs. Mariners
Play: Orioles +105
The Orioles took the 3-1 loss yesterday but previously had won 6 of their 10 prior games and recorded double digits in hits in 7 of those 10 games. The O's have certainly been playing much better ball than the Mariners! Seattle, prior to yesterday's win, had lost 5 straight games and the Mariners have only reached double digits in hits in 2 of their last 7 games. Marco Gonzalez gets the start for the M's here and he is winless with an 8.49 ERA in his 3 starts this season. The Orioles will have Ubaldo Jimenez on the mound for this one. Although his season numbers are sub-par, Jimenez has been pitching very well of late with a 2.50 ERA and 23 strikeouts in 18 innings over his last 3 starts. The Orioles opened up as a road favorite here with good reason! They have a pitching edge here and have also been the better hitting team of late. We look for the O's to bounce back after the 3-1 loss yesterday.
Jimmy Boyd
Diamondbacks vs. Astros
Play: Astros -145
I like the value here with Houston at home in Wednesday's showdown against the Diamondbacks. The Astros got their offense going in yesterday's 9-4 win at Arizona, which concluded a 8-game road trip. A trip Houston would like to forget, as they went 2-6, which included them getting swept by the White Sox. I expect this team to turn up the heat, as they can't keep playing like this no matter how big of a lead they have in the AL West.
I'll take my chances here that the Astros offense builds off yesterday's performance against Dbacks starter Taijuan Walker, who has struggled of late with a 5.40 ERA in his last 3 starts. At the same time, Arizona's offense doesn't pack near the punch on the road, where they average just 4.2 runs/game and are hitting a mere .235 as a team. Look for Astros starter Charlie Morton to keep them in check. Morton is 6-2 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 11 home starts.
Mark Franco
Pirates vs. Brewers
Play: Pirates +122
Gerrit Cole has made himself at home on the road, winning seven straight away from PNC Park to keep the Pittsburgh Pirates in contention in the National League Central. The 26-year-old ace aims to keep his good fortune going on Wednesday afternoon as the Pirates vie to salvage a split of their abbreviated two-game series against the host Milwaukee Brewers.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Pirates RH Gerrit Cole (10-8, 3.96 ERA) vs. Brewers RH Jimmy Nelson (9-6, 3.72)
Cole recorded his seventh straight quality start on Thursday after allowing three runs on six hits across a season-high eight innings of a 7-5 victory at Detroit. The right-hander has handcuffed Milwaukee in three appearances this season, permitting three earned runs while striking out 23 batters against four walks in 21 innings. Cole settled for a no-decision in his last encounter with the Brewers on July 19 despite fanning a campaign-best 10 batters and yielding just one run in seven frames.
Nelson was blitzed for a career-high nine earned runs and 11 hits over 3 2/3 innings of an 11-10 setback versus Cincinnati on Friday. The 28-year-old also tasted defeat in his last encounter with Pittsburgh, yielding four runs on six hits over five innings of a 4-2 loss on July 20. Nelson has struggled against the likes of Starling Marte (.333), Andrew McCutchen (.318) and Josh Harrison (.304).
Pirates are 7-0 in Coles last 7 road starts. Brewers are 1-4 in Nelsons last 5 starts. Pirates are 4-1 in Coles last 5 starts vs. Brewers.
Ben Burns
Cincinnati at Chicago
Play: Chicago
The Cubs are obviously pretty steep favorites here. However, I feel that the price could easily be much higher. While the Cubs had some trouble against yesterday's Red's starter (Castillo) they should have a much easier time against a "tired" Homer Bailey. The veteran Reds' starter, who has had three elbow surgeries since 2014, is 4-6 with an ugly 8.31 ERA and 2.035 WHIP on the season. After he went five innings last time out, Reds' manager Price referred to Bailey as being "fatigued." Lackey, on the other hand, seems to be gaining energy as the season goes on. He's made five starts since the All Star Break and is a perfect 5-0, posting a solid 3.42 ERA. Too many edges for the home team. Cubs win.
Neil The Greek
Cardinals at Red Sox
Play: Under 9.5
The Cardinals are hotter then a fox in a forest fire right now hitting those over tickets. They have cashed those in 9 straight games. So why is this line moving down? Because Lance Lynn is hot himself, allowing 2 or fewer earned runs in 8 straight games. Boston will not allow Rodriguez to throw them out of this game. And their bullpen has been awesome.
Buster Sports
Tampa Bay at Toronto
Play: Toronto -135
We like the Blue Jays to bounce back tonight after their 6-4 defeat to the Rays last night. The Blue Jays have who is arguably their ace going tonight in RH Marcus Stroman (10-6, 3.00 ERA) Stroman has pitched really well of late. In his last 3 starts he has an ERA of 2.49 and with a WHIP of 1.200. When Stroman pitches at home he is solid as well, sporting a 2.61 ERA with a WHIP of 1.197. The Tampa Bay rays send RH Jacob Faria (5-3, 3.19 ERA) to the Hill tonight. Faria got off to a great start this year for the Rays but it looks like the league has caught up with the 24-year-old rookie. In his last 3 starts, his ERA has ballooned to 5.06. The Jays have already seen the rookie once this year so Faria will not have that advantage tonight.
Jeff Benton
Wednesday freebie is the Cards and Red Sox Under the total.
Last night the teams posted 14 combined runs, as the Cardinals made it 9 straight games landing Over the total. Wednesday is where the run ends.
Lance Lynn owns a 2.50 ERA over his last 3 starts, and has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 straight assignments. The Under is 7-1 in those 8 starts.
Eduardo Rodriguez will oppose, and he has allowed 3 runs or less in 12 of his last 13 starts for the season.
Both teams involved in a bevvy of Overs of late, but tonight we see the low-scoring game thrown into the equation.
Cards-Red Sox Under the total.
4* ST. LOUIS-BOSTON UNDER
Jack Brayman
For the first time since coming over from the Texas Rangers, starting pitcher Yu Darvish will pitch inside storied Dodger Stadium. The newly acquired Darvish will stifle the Chicago White Sox, one night after the Dodgers moved to 50 games over .500 with a 6-1 victory over the South Siders.
Los Angeles, which is 84-34, will dominate a Chicago team that has lost six straight road games and 10 of its 11. Before a recent 4-2 surge at home, the last-place White Sox were mired in a 3-19 skid over their previous 22 games.
The right-hander has been stellar in his first two starts for the Dodgers, becoming the fourth pitcher to log 10 strikeouts in his first two outings with his new club.
Take Los Angeles on the run line.
4* DODGERS -1.5
Jack Brayman
For the first time since coming over from the Texas Rangers, starting pitcher Yu Darvish will pitch inside storied Dodger Stadium. The newly acquired Darvish will stifle the Chicago White Sox, one night after the Dodgers moved to 50 games over .500 with a 6-1 victory over the South Siders.
Los Angeles, which is 84-34, will dominate a Chicago team that has lost six straight road games and 10 of its 11. Before a recent 4-2 surge at home, the last-place White Sox were mired in a 3-19 skid over their previous 22 games.
The right-hander has been stellar in his first two starts for the Dodgers, becoming the fourth pitcher to log 10 strikeouts in his first two outings with his new club.
Take Los Angeles on the run line.
4* DODGERS -1.5
JESSE SCHULE
Cincinnati at Chicago
Play: Chicago -185
The Cubs have split the first two games of this home series versus Cincinnati, but I like Chicago in the rubber match Wednesday.
Homer Bailey will toe the rubber for the Reds, and he's been hit hard since returning to Cincinnati. He allowed a pair of runs on five hits and five walks in five innings in a no decision versus Milwaukee his last time out. He's 2-4 with an 8.61 ERA in his last six starts.
The Cubs will hand the ball to veteran John Lackey, who has been on a roll of late. Lackey (10-9, 4.82 ERA) allowed three runs on four hits over 5 1/3 innings in a win at Arizona his last time out. He's 5-0 with a 3.42 ERA in his last five starts.
Chicago was won 20 of their last 27 home games versus the Reds, and they are 6-0 in Lackey's last six starts.
The Prop Specialists
St. Louis vs. Boston
Pick: Over 1st 5
Based on our suite of Machine Learning algorithms, we have identified a 5* investment opportunity on the 1st 5 innings totals market in this game. Our rated run differential compared to the 5 run total for the 1st 5 innings of this game is 0.8 runs. This repesents a fair value price of -156 on the OVER and a 10.5% edge on the market's price of -115