Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Tuesday, August 30th, 2016

Bob Harvey

Minnesota at Cleveland
Play: Cleveland -1½

The Cleveland Indians look to pad their lead in the American League Central Division when they host the Minnesota Twins. Game time is slated for 7:10 PM ET at Progressive Field where the Tribe is a huge -206 moneyline favorite with a -1.5 runline price of -108. The total is 9.5. Minnesota will be out to snap an 11-game losing streak, including Monday’s 1-0 setback in the series opener.

The Twins (49-82, 24-42 road) have the worst record in the American League and the second poorest mark in the majors. But Minnesota has eight wins against Cleveland Indians and a total of seven vs. KC, Detroit and Chicago. Go figure.

The Indians (74-56, 40-23 home) have the second best record in the American League, but they are coming off a humbling seven-game trip to Oakland and Texas in which they lost five of the seven games. The offense is the issue for Cleveland which has been held to one or no runs in seven of their last eight games.

Andrew Alburs (0-0, 4.32 ERA) will be making his third appearance, but first start for the Twins this season.

Josh Tomlin’s (11-8, 4.70 ERA) status in the rotation could be riding on tonight’s performance. In his last five starts, Tomlin is 0-5 with a 10.80 ERA and nine home runs in 25 innings. He leads the majors with 34 homers allowed.In 13 career appearances against the Twins, Tomlin is 4-4 with a 5.26 ERA. In three starts versus Minnesota this year, Tomlin is 2-0 with a 3.72 ERA.

Mike Lundin

Reds vs. Angels
Play: Over 9

The Los Angeles Angels hammered the Cincinnati Reds in 9-2 victory on Monday. I think we'll see another high-scoring game as the three-game series continues tonight.

Tim Adleman (2-1, 3.68 ERA) takes the ball for the Reds. The 28 year old rookie was tagged with five runs (four earned) on five hits with three homers in five innings of a 6-5 loss at Texas his last start. He's pitched more than five innings in just one of his six major leagues start so I think it's a fair assumption he'll leave the game early only to hand over the ball to the worst bullpen in baseball.

The Halos turn to veteran right-hander Jered Weaver (9-11, 5.31 ERA). He held the Jays to a pair of runs in 5 2/3 innings of a 6-3 win his last time out but had surrendered four earned runs or more in each of his previous three starts. Cincy has nothing to play for but pride, but the team has not stopped trying and the Reds have swung their bats alright in recent games.

Over is 4-1-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings and 8-2 in the Reds' last 10 games following a loss.

Bruce Marshall

Dodgers at Rockies
Pick: Rockies

Colorado starter Jon Gray straightened out effectively in his last start on Tuesday vs. the Brewers, striking out 10 in 6 IP. And Gray is 5-1 this season at Coors Field. Meanwhile, Dodger starter Kenta Maeda is still not pitching more than 5 innings, and while LA has won his alst starts, Maeda has also been able to benefit from a whopping 53 runs of support in those games.

Marc Lawrence

Arizona at San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco

Edges - Giants: Johnny Cueto 9-2 career team starts versus Arizona; and 18-5 as a favorite this season. Diamondbacks: Zack Greinke 7.86 ERA last 4 starts. With Cueto sporting a 2.63 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP at home this season, and in solid KW form with 27 Ks and 4 BBs in his last 5 starts, we recommend a 1* play on San Francisco.

Jim Feist

Dodgers at Rockies
Pick: Under

The Dodgers are holding onto a slim 2-game lead in the NL West over the Giants. It also appears that the Dodgers made a big roster move by putting Yasiel Puig on waivers. Puig was demoted to the Triple-A Oklahoma on August 1st and has done well, posting a .375 batting average. This might help the Dodgers who obviously want to trade him. Either way, don't expect to see Puig back in a Dodgers uniform. The Dodgers had a big six game run with three against the Giants and three against the Cubs. LA performed well, taking two of three in each series. Rich Hill starts tonight for the Dodgers. Hill came over to the Dodgers on August 1st, but just made his first start on August 24th. Hill performed well, holding the Giants to no runs over six innings for his first NL win. Hill is now 10-3 on the season with a 2.09 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Meanwhile, the 3rd place Rockies will send Tyler Anderson to the hill. Anderson is 4-5 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Anderson has allowed more than four runs just once in his last 10 starts, not bad for a pitcher that has to face the altitude of Coors field. The last eight of nine meetings between these clubs have gone UNDER. Even with tonight's contest in Denver with a high total, I like both these pitchers to keep this game low scoring.

SPORTS WAGERS

MILWAUKEE +141 over St. Louis

Wily Peralta is a young, 27-year-old ground-baller that spent June and July of last year on the DL with a left oblique injury. His skills showed he wasn't the same guy upon his return. Peralta’s fastball velocity dip prompted a K-rate/swing and miss rate slide, while his shaky first-pitch strike rate culminated in a sharp 2H control fall-off. It was his first major injury in quite some time. This year, Peralta spent the first two months in the Brewers rotation before being sent down for two months from June 11th until August 9th. Since then, Peralta has been better and he appears to be getting his strength back. Peralta’s velocity is back up to 95 MPH. His swinging strike rate in his last start was 11% and his first-pitch strike rate was 71%. He recently went three straight starts of six full innings before his last start in which he labored through five innings but still only surrendered two runs. His groundball rate is elite at 51%. Peralta is returning to the form that saw him post outstanding numbers from 2012 to 2014. He’s not there yet but he’s damn close and it could come quickly. Invest now.

After missing nearly all of last season with an Achilles injury, Wainwright got off to an awful start in 2016, putting up a 6.80 ERA over his first eight starts. He’s made 18 more starts since then to take his number of starts this season to 26. That’s 156 innings thus far and Wainwright appears to be running on fumes. He’s walked 12 batters over his past 24 frames while striking out 19. That’s a really weak ratio. His velocity is down to an average of 89.9 MPH and his swinging strike rate has dropped from 10% overall to 6% over his last five starts. Wainwright has one quality start over his last six tries. Over that span, he posted a 7.71 ERA/6.86 xERA split and a 1.92 WHIP. He’s now favored like he’s strong and pitching well when he is in fact, weak and pitching poorly. Huge overlay here.

San Diego +144 over ATLANTA

The Padres continue to pay off but the data shows that they are the least bet team in the majors. That data means the oddsmakers are forced to offer the chalk against San Diego at inflated prices, which is certainly the case here with the Braves. The Padres are a pesky and feisty bunch that just took two of three in Miami and that also has 12 wins in their past 25 games. In other words, they’re winning almost as much as they’re losing these days. They’ll now face a Braves team that knows a thing or two about losing ball games and that should never be priced in this range.

Edwin Jackson goes for the Padres so we’ll plug our nose and hope for the best. Jackson had given up seven runs in 11 IP as a reliever prior to being released by Miami at the end of May, after which he was signed to a minor league contract by the Padres in mid-June. The departure of Drew Pomeranz allowed Jackson to step into a starting role. He coughed up 10 earned runs over 13 innings in three Triple-A starts before getting this assignment. Surprisingly, Jackson has four quality starts in seven tries. He’s only being asked to eat some innings on a rebuilding team so he’s playing with house money right now. Any major league pitcher can throw a good game against Atlanta’s weak offense and Jackson is no different. This wager, however, is not about backing Jackson but more about fading Julio Teheran and Atlanta at this price.

Teheran has been back for three starts after being DL'd for a little more than two weeks. So far in 2016, he has an ERA of 3.15, but an xERA of 3.82. Here’s where it gets interesting. Teheran's been an ace against right-handed batters, but a disaster against left-handed batters, which is key here because the Padres will send as many as six left-handed batters to the plate. It would be well worth your time to check out the opposition's lineup in deciding whether to bet Teheran or fade him. We’ve done that for you. Incidentally, Teheran is 0-5 at home and the Braves return from a seven-game trip through Arizona and San Fran.

Minnesota +188 over CLEVELAND

Perhaps the Indians go out today and clobber the Twins. Perhaps Andrew Albers gets knocked out in early and Josh Tomlin throws a gem. That is quite possible but just like last night when two stiffs (Bauer v Santiago) combined to shut out two good offenses, one really never knows what is going to take place on the diamond. What we do know is that Josh Tomlin cannot be priced like he’s Carlos Carrasco because he’s not. Tomlin has an unsightly 17%/26% dominant start/disaster start split this year. Control specialist Tomlin continues to show very average skills with a 4.49 xERA. Tomlin has struggled with the HR ball throughout his career, which adds to the risk of spotting a big number. Tomlin does not miss a ton of bats so like many of his ilk, he relies on command and the slings and arrows of where balls land fortune (and infield defense). Tomlin is so not worthy of this tag.

Meanwhile, Andrew Albers has been toiling between the minors and majors over the past six to eight years. Albers' first professional season was in 2008 with the Padres, where he started just five games before suffering an injury that would lead to Tommy John surgery. As a result, he missed all of 2009. After playing independent ball in 2010, the Twins signed Albers to a minor-league contract. Albers is the prototypical Minnesota control and finesse pitcher. He can eat up innings and pitch efficiently deep into the game. Albers throws strikes with precision command and induces weak contact and lots of groundball outs. He also gets a surprising number of strike outs considering the lack of overpowering stuff. His best pitch is an 87-91 mph sinker followed by a decent slider and improving change-up. Albers has to rely on pitch mix and pinpoint control to keep hitters off balance, but he has learned to do it very effectively. Hmmmmm, come to think of it, Albers’ story mirrors Josh Tomlin’s. These two are near identical in skills and approach but the difference is Tomlin is better known and is laying a massive number. We’ll take back a huge price and take our chances, thank you very much.

Oakland +156 over HOUSTON

The A’s hosted Cleveland last week and lost the first game of that series before winning the final two. This past weekend, Oakland went into St. Louis and lost the first game of that series as well before winning the final two. Oakland went into Houston last night and lost the first game of that series………

Graveman’s 3.97 ERA and the team he pitches for is enough to scare off most bettors. His 87 K’s in 150 innings suggest there’s little to see here. Yawn. Move on, right? Well, maybe. Kendall Graveman could be a surprising source of profit down the stretch. Graveman’s control has always been good and now he trusts his stuff even more. He’s down to 2.2 BB’s/9 with an elite 71% first-pitch strike rate. Where Graveman sets himself apart is in the ground game. Among starters who’ve thrown at least 110 innings, his 52.9% ground ball rate sits 19th in the league and while the groundball rate on most of his pitches have decreased this season, his cutter, which he’s throwing more often, is inducing them 62% of the time.Graveman’s velocity is also up across the board. His swinging strike rate has jumped two points, buoyed by increased velocity across all pitches and more movement on his sinker, cutter, and change. And while the league-wide chase rate is at its lowest since 2009, Graveman’s is up. So along with throwing his ground ball-inducing cutter more often, he’s also upped the usage of his whiff-inducing slider, leading to more ground balls and more strikeouts.Graveman’s 5.2 K’s/9 won’t turn any heads but when he gets two strikes on batters, which is often, he’s inducing a plethora of groundouts. At this price, he’s worth a wager here against Collin McHugh.

McHugh is a rags-to-riches story. Formerly Colorado’s waiver fodder and New York Mets farm-hand, Houston picked up McHugh, owner of a career 8.94 ERA at the MLB level at that time, in December of 2014 and inserted him into the rotation in April following a Scott Feldman injury. So, color us surprised that he pitched like an ace in two subsequent years since then. This year, however, is a bit different. He comes into this start with 5.01 ERA this year with 12 pure quality starts in 26 tries. Over his last five starts, McHugh’s ERA was 6.15 with a 1.63 WHIP. Look, McHugh has been somewhat unfortunate this year. He has an excellent BB/K split of 40/141 in 142 innings. However, his struggles are not new and his weak 38%/30%/32% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is one that suggests fatigue may be settling in. McHugh’s 204 frames last year was the most he has ever pitched in one year and he’s already up to 142 innings this year. Bad outings also play on one’s mind. At the end of the day, the Astronauts can obviously win here but there is a big premium to pay on them to find out. The A’s can win too.

COLORADO +110 over Los Angeles

Rich Hill has thrown a mere 111 innings over the past two seasons split between Boston last year and the A’s and Dodgers this year. Oh, to be a lefty and blessed with infinite opportunities. After years of chronically terrible control, Hill changed his arm slot last summer and actually found something (great command and a double-digit K-rate vL and vR). It would be very easy to call it a blip but it's just enough to hold our attention for now but not as a road favorite in Colorado. Hill’s swing and miss rate in his last start was 6% (3 K’s in 6 IP) and that came after he missed some starts with a blister. That strongly suggests his grip has been altered. He’s still a pitcher that throws just 89 MPH. While we are not going to take anything away from the success Hill has had, this venue could not care less. There has never been a pitcher unaffected by the park factors here and that alone makes Hill a risky investment spotting a price. The Rockies are winning a high percentage of their home games these days, which includes the opener last night (8-1) against Rookie-of-the Year favorite, Kenta Maeta.

Tyler Anderson is also a lefty and is very used to pitching at Coors. Colorado’s pitchers know not to panic when trouble sets in or when they allow some runs because it is just part of dealing with pitching half your games at Coors. Aside from that, Anderson has been outstanding at home with the underlying support of a strong collection of skills: 8.2 K’s/9, 2.3 BB’s/9 and 53% groundballs. The Rockies have won six of Anderson’s nine starts at Coors, which includes a 12-2 beat down of these Dodgers back in early August. Los Angeles is not in better form than the Rocks are right now and again, Rich Hill’s recurring blister problem may have forced him to change his grip on the ball because his K-rate last game was WAY down. We’ll see how that plays out but we trust we’re going with the best of it here.

Brandon Lee

Mets -117

New York heads into Tuesday fresh off a thrilling 2-1 extra innings win at home against the Marlins and are now 7-2 over their last 9 games. I look for them to ride that wave of momentum to another victory Tuesday against the slumping Marlins, who have now lost 3 straight. We are catching a great price here on New York, due to the fact that they are starting rookie Seth Lugo. However, Lugo has been impressive in each of his first two starts, posting a 2.31 ERA and 1.114 WHIP. Both of those coming on the road against potential playoff teams in the Cardinals and Giants. Miami will give the ball to Tom Koehler, who is just 5-5 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 14 road starts. Koehler is also just 2-6 with a 4.24 ERA in 16 career starts against the Mets.

Jack Jones

Boston Red Sox -1.5 +119

I'm willing to back the Boston Red Sox on the Run Line today and get an underdog price for them winning by two runs or more over the Tampa Bay Rays. They have scored 21 runs over their past three games and are hitting .305 and scoring 6.0 runs per game at home this season.

Look for the Red Sox to tee off on Jake Odorizzi, who has posted a 4.61 ERA and 1.342 WHIP in 12 road starts this season. Odorizzi is 3-3 with a 4.01 ERA in 11 career starts against Boston. In his last two starts at Boston, he has given up 9 earned runs and 16 base runners in 9 innings of work.

Drew Pomeranz is 10-10 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.155 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.018 WHIP in his last three starts. Pomeranz is also 1-1 with a 1.64 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in two career starts against Tampa Bay, giving up just 2 earned runs in 11 innings while striking out 14.

Tampa Bay is 3-14 (-12.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season. It is losing by 2.1 runs per game in this spot. The Rays are 2-16 (-13.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. They are losing by 2.7 runs per game in this spot. Boston is 13-0 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. It is winning by 4.0 runs per game in this spot.

Jimmy Boyd

Mariners/Rangers Under 9

We are catching some great value on the total in Tuesday's AL West showdown between the Rangers and Mariners. Both of these teams are struggling at the plate. Texas is hitting a mere .218 as a team over their last 7 games and Seattle is even worse with a .200 team average in their last 7 games. With the starting pitching matchup we have going in this one, I look for both offenses to struggle to push across runs.

The Rangers will send out their veteran ace Cole Hamels, who has been straight dealing since the All-Star break. Hamels has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 7 of his 8 starts since July 17th and the one exception was at Baltimore, where he allowed 3 runs on 4 hits in 7 innings. The Mariners will counter with James Paxton, who has also been on a tear of late. Paxton has allowed 3 or fewer runs in each of his last 5 starts and has a sizzling 1.69 ERA and 0.844 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Paxton has a 1.38 ERA in 5 career starts against the Rangers and Hamels has allowed a mere 4 runs in his last 3 starts (21 innings) against the Mariners.

UNDER is 7-0 in Paxton's last 7 starts when facing a team that scored 5+ runs in their previous game, 12-4-2 in the Rangers last 18 against a team with a winning record and 4-0 in their last 4 home games against a left-handed starter.

Dave Price

San Francisco Giants -155

The San Francisco Giants have a lot to play for right now as they are chasing down the Los Angeles Dodgers for 1st place in the NL West. The Arizona Diamondbacks do not at 55-76 on the season. Zack Greinke has been pitching like he doesn't care of late, going 0-1 with a 9.20 ERA and 1.909 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Johnny Cueto is having a tremendous season at 14-4 with a 2.86 ERA in 26 starts, 6-2 with a 2.63 ERA in 12 home starts, and 1-1 with a 2.29 ERA in his last 3 starts. Cueto is 8-2 with a 2.93 ERA in 11 lifetime starts vs. Arizona. Cueto is 34-13 (+16.1 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons. San Francisco is 9-0 (+9.5 Units) against the money line after a win by 8 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. Greinke is 23-53 (-22.5 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher lifetime. The Diamondbacks are 23-53 in their last 76 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Giants are 14-2 in Cueto's last 16 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

David Banks

Arizona @ San Francisco
Pick: Arizona +150

Though they are in last place in the NL West, Arizona could still have an impact on who wins the division. The Diamondbacks begin a half-month stretch where they will face the division leading Dodgers seven times and the second-place Giants five. A two-game stint in San Francisco begins Tuesday with Arizona ace Zack Greinke taking the mound to face Giants ace Johnny Cueto.

Greinke is the one Arizona starter that has won consistently this season. With an 11-4 record, Greinke continues to have great control and, normally, he gets the support of a quality Diamondbacks lineup. The right-hander did not get a decision in his last two starts, but each was a solid outing. Greinke has lost just one decision since mid-April.

As for support, the Diamondbacks have the sixth-best team batting average in all of baseball. Second baseman Jean Segura leads Arizona with a .316 average. Left-fielder Yasmany Thomas leads the team in home runs with 27 and adds 64 RBIs. Third baseman Jake Lamb bats .260 with 25 homers and a team-high 80 RBIs. Arizona enters Tuesday night’s game fresh off an 11-2 win over Cincinnati on Sunday.

The Giants continue to squander opportunities to make a move on Los Angeles, but they have now won three of their last four games. San Francisco came up with four home runs and four triples on Sunday to beat Atlanta, 13-4. Brandon Crawford, who leads the Giants with 76 RBIs, had three hits in the victory. Cueto (14-4) will try and get back on the winning track after losing a 1-0 decision to Los Angeles last week.

Wunderdog

Minnesota @ Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland -212

Cleveland beat the Twins 1-0 in 10 innings last night. The Indians are now 40-23 at home while Minnesota has lost 11 games in a row. Josh Tomlin has a good chance to get back on track after a pair of subpar performances as he is 2-0 with a .216 opponent batting average against the Twins this season. Andrew Albers will start for the first time this year for the Twins and in two games he has allowed seven runs, four earned and 12 hits in only 8 1/3 innings. The Indians have won 21 of their last 28 home games against left-handed starters and 24 of their last 33 overall versus southpaws. Also, Cleveland has won Tomlin's last 12 starts against losing teams. Meanwhile, Minnesota has lost 17 of its last 22 overall and has packed it in for the season. Back the Indians.

GoodFella

Colorado +110

I really like this spot for these Colorado Rockies on Tuesday Night. These Rockies have won three straight ballgames, including last nights blow out win over these Dodgers (8-1). They smacked around the Dodgers bullpen later in the game to pile on the 8 runs they plated. For tonight, the Rockies send out talented 26 year old Tyler Anderson. He's been very solid this season in his 14 starts. He's done his best work when taking the ball at HOME. In his 9 home starts, he's (4-1) with a very good (3.45) ERA. A strong (4 to 1) K/BB ratio, striking out 54 batters in 57 1/3 IP. He has a solid (1.20) WHIP overall for the season & simply does not walk many batters (20 walks in 83 IP). He won his lone start vs these Dodgers earlier this season. He pitched 7 strong innings, striking out 6, yielding just 6 hits & 2 runs. I do expect him to limit this Dodgers offense again tonight. The facts are that these Dodgers really struggle vs LH pitching. They are dead last in .OPS (.641) vs south paws. They're also just (16-17) vs LH pitching for the season. The Dodgers are just so much more potent vs RH pitching & their struggle vs LH pitching could lead to their downfall in the playoffs (if they hang on and make the playoffs). The Dodgers give the ball to Rich Hill. He returned from the DL in his last start. He pitched well vs the SF Giants. He went 6 innings and did not give up a run. However, he is on a 80-85 pitch count limit. Hill is not familiar with pitching at Coors Field, and that coupled with his pitch count limit, could be an issue for him and the Dodgers this evening. These Rockies hit left-handed pitching very well. They rank 4th in the National League in .OPS (.784). The bottom line for me here, is that I really think these Rockies are an extremely live home dog in this spot. I'm all over the COLORADO ROCKIES at plus money in this spot on Tuesday Night.

Bryan Leonard

Twins at Indians
Play: Over 9.5

After going 10 innings last night in a 1-0 final, we looks for the bats to wake up on Tuesday. Tomlin has been hit extremely hard over the last group of starts as he's not been able to get ahead in the count and make batters chase his offspeed offerings. Andrew Albers is making a spot start for the Twins who have had major starting pitching problems all season. The Twins hit well against righties and the Tribe normally pounds left handed starters. We expect a high scoring contest.