Jimmy Boyd
Giants vs. Marlins
Play: Under 7½
This is a lot total for this year, but I think we are getting a ton of value on the UNDER given the two teams playing and the starting pitching matchup. San Francisco sends out their ace and one of the elite in the game in Madison Bumgarner, who has a 1.29 ERA and 0.905 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's more than capable of keeping Stanton in check, which in turn should have Miami struggling to score.
The Marlins will counter with Daniel Straily who isn't a big name, but has pitched like one at home this season, where he has a 2.84 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 12 starts. Straily has also enjoyed facing San Francisco, as he is 4-0 with a 1.91 ERA and 0.741 WHIP in 4 career starts against them.
UNDER is 5-1-1 in Bumgarner's last 7 starts after a Quality Start last time out and 8-3 in the Marlins last 11 against a left-handed starter.
Chase Diamond
Philadelphia vs. San Diego
Play: San Diego -138
This game features the 43-73 Phillies and the 52-66 Padres. I really liked the Phillies in their last two games but did not play them thankfully. Tonight I really love the Padres. Phillies Bullpen is terrible now since trading away their best pieces that they had so if a starter can't go 7 like Nola does then they are in a'lot of trouble. Marc Leiter is not known for his stamina and I don't think he gets past 5 innings here tonight. Lamet who has a live young arm goes for the Padres he has been getting better and better as the season has gone on and has won 3 of his last 4 starts.
Larry Ness
St. Louis vs. Boston
Pick: Boston -135
The Red Sox lost their make-up game last night at home to Cleveland 7-3, as Encarnacion hit a pair of two-run HRs for the Indians. Boston now hosts the Cards in a two-game IL series before getting an day off on Thursday. Boston welcomes St Louis to town having won 10 of 12, opening up a 4 1/2 game lead over the Yankees in the AL East. The Cardinals had an eight-game winning streak come to an end on Sunday against Atlanta, but sit just 1 1/2 games behind the first-place Chicago Cubs in the NL Central. "We're a better team than when we started," St Louis manager Mike Matheny told reporters. "I believe we're going to be better as we move along, too. (We've) just got to continue to work to figure out the holes we've got to continue to fix. I don't see this as a streak. I see this as a level of expectation of how we should play every game as we go forward, as long as they let us play."
Mike Leake (7-10, 3.48 ERA), who is win-less in his last three starts (he's 0-2 / StL is 1-2), takes the mound for the Cards. Rick Porcello (6-14, 4.63 ERA), last year's AL Cy Young winner, will get the nod for the Red Sox. Leake was 5-2 with a 1.92 ERA after nine starts in 2017 but has gone 2-8 over his last 14, with his ERA climbing almost 1 1/2 runs to 3.48. He hasn't completed six innings in five of his last seven starts and is 0-1 with a 4.26 ERA in three starts against Boston (teams are 0-3). Porcello owns a two-start winning streak and has finally started to get some support from his offense, which has totaled 17 runs in his last two outings. Porcello is 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA in two starts against St Louis.
It's hardly been a Cy Young-like season for Porcello in 2017 but he's posted a 3.57 ERA over his last six starts and as noted above, has started to get some run support from his teammates. Leake's strong start to the 2017 season is long-forgotten and his 6-10 record with a 4.04 ERA in 28 career interleague starts hardly inspires confidence. Porcello's ERA is 4.17 in 35 career interleague games but he owns a 17-8 record. I like last year's Cy Young winner, here!
Will Rogers
Kansas City vs. Oakland
Pick: Kansas City -113
The set-up: The Royals saw their losing skid reach five games when they lost the Friday opener of their three-game series in Chicago against the White Sox. However, KC rebounded by winning Saturday and Sunday and last night, took the first of a three-game series in Oakland against the A's, 6-2. The three-game winning streak has allowed the Royals to climb back into a virtual second-place tie with the Twins in the AL Central, five games back of the first-place Indians. More importantly, both the Twins and Royals are just a half-game back of the Angels for the AL's second wild card spot. Kansas City hopes to bolster its wild-card position when it when it continues its series tonight in Oakland against the 52-67 A's. Oakland fell to 2-5 on its nine-game homestand and owns the AL's second-worst record, better than only the 45-70 White Sox.
The pitching matchup: Jason Hammel (5-9 & 4.68 ERA) will get the nod for KC and Chris Smith (0-2 & 5.29 ERA) goes for Oakland. Hammel's year has been a huge disappointment, as the Royals are 7-16 in his 2017 starts, giving him MLB's 8th-worst moneyline mark (minus-$758). However, he's actually been fairly solid for quite awhile now, as he's allowed three runs or less in 12 of his last 13 starts (KC is just 6-7, though). Hammel is 2-2 in four lifetime against Oakland with a 5.14 ERA. Smith remains in search of his first major-league victory since 2008 with Boston, after being ripped for five runs on seven hits (including 4 HRs!) over six innings in a 7-2 loss to Baltimore on Thursday. The 36-year-old has allowed 16 ERs on 25 hits over 21 innings of his last four appearances (three starts), for a 6.86 ERA. He's made two two career relief appearances versus Kansas City but this is his first start.
The pick: Getting the AL's two-worst teams in back-to-back series has allowed the Royals to win three of four so far and I'm 'on board' with the idea that KC will win Tuesday and Wednesday in Oakland, as well. First things first. Hammel has settled down lately (see above) and should be good enough to help KC to a win in this one.
Bruce Marshall
Brewers at Twins
Pick: Twins
Buoyed by a nice rally last night and still very much in the AL wild card picture, the Twins look to continue some of that momentum tonight at the expense of the visiting Brewers, whose offense has slowed over thew past four games, scoring just 9 runs. Ex-Twin Matt Garza is on the mound for the Brew Crew and needs more support than the Milwaukee offense has provided the past few games. Meanwhile Paul Molitor as usual looks for 4-5 innings from starter Adalberto Mejia before dipping into his bullpen.
Jim Feist
Cardinals at Royals
Pick: Under
St. Louis is on a 17-6-4 run under the total with better pitching than offense. Michael Wacha (3.66 ERA) takes the mound throwing well, allowing 1 run or less in five of his last seven starts. Wacha allowed a single run on five hits and three walks while striking out five batters over four innings during Thursday's loss to Milwaukee, 2-1. St. Louis is 37-16-6 under the total against the AL Central division. Kansas City has a hot and cold offense, 7-1 under against losing teams. Jason Vargas (13-5, 3.10 ERA) has been great and the under is 20-8 when he starts. And the Under is 10-2-5 in the last 17 meetings.
Brandon Lee
Astros vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Astros -118
I successfully played against Houston with my free pick yesterday, as I didn't see their slumping offense getting back on track against Dbacks ace Zack Greinke. That's exactly what happened as they were shutout. It's a different story on Tuesday, as this time the Astros will take on 24-year-old Anthony Banda who has made just 3 starts. He's got a 4.59 ERA overall and 6.51 ERA in his two starts at home. Only strong outing was at Giants. His other two were against playoff teams in the Dodgers and Nationals and neither went well. This is an ideal spot for Houston's offense to snap out of their recent funk. At the same time, there's also a good chance they win here even if the offense doesn't put up a huge number, as starter Brad Peacock is more than capable of shutting down this Arizona offense, which has scored just 4 runs in their last 2 games. Peacock is 4-0 with a 2.87 ERA in 7 road starts (6-1 team record). Too much value to pass up for me.
Wunderdog
Tampa Bay @ Toronto
Pick: Toronto -114
Tampa Bay has lost eight of its last 10 games and the Rays have stopped hitting and have scored a total of only 12 runs in that span. The Rays have lost seven of Blake Snell's last 10 starts and 11 of his last 15 road starts. The left-hander has yet to win a decision this season and Snell has a 4.95 ERA on the road. Snell has allowed seven runs (six earned) on nine hits in 11 2/3 innings against the Blue Jays this year and Toronto has won five of their last seven games versus southpaw starters. Toronto has won three of Marco Estrada's last four starts and he comes off seven shutout innings in a 4-0 win over the Mets on Thursday and the Blue Jays have won six of the last eight meetings. Toronto has won three straight, so go with the Blue Jays to beat the punchless Rays on Tuesday night.
John Fisher
Mets at Yankees
Play: Mets +135
SP DeGrom is a value Dog play here. Yankees have not found their hitting stroke of late and DeGrom is not one to find it back. SP Gray to me is over rated. Unlike DeGrom where he has a 4K/bb ratio SP Gray has struggled with his control as a pinstripe. Look for Granderson to hit a 3 run Hr which is all DeGrom will need.
SPORTS WAGERS
Philadelphia +138 over SAN DIEGO
The Padres are not usually overpriced but this is one time that they are because Mark Leiter pitches for the Phillies and has had very little MLB exposure this year or last. Furthermore, Dinelson Lamet made his season debut on May 25 and has been in the rotation ever since. Lamet now comes in with a 6-4 record and a 2.14 ERA over his last three starts. Those results have him overpriced here in a big way. Lamet’s xERA over his last three starts was 5.39. His first-pitch strike rate last game was 48% and overall it’s at a weak 52%. He also had a 36%/27%/37% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile over that span so when hitters are making contact off him, it’s hard contact. Dinelson has outstanding strikeout numbers (85 K’s in 68 frames) but he’s only made it past the fifth inning in five of his 13 starts because he throws so many pitches per AB. He has made it out of the sixth inning just twice. Dinelson is very worthy of backing when taking back a price but he now takes on the role of being a significant favorite. If all goes well for Dinelson here, he’ll still only pitch five innings. That’s not reliable enough to be priced in this range. We’re also seeing severe signs of fatigue, as he continues to get the ball up in the zone and fall behind hitters.
Mark Leiter’s underlying numbers are so interesting and very worthy of getting behind. Leiter has appeared in 19 games for the Phillies but 16 of those came in relief. However, Leiter is no stranger to starting, as he made 74 starts in the minors in 100 appearances. Leiter was a 22nd-round pick of the Phillies in 2013. He has been a reliable workhorse with loads of durability and stamina despite a slight frame. Leiter uses a drop and drive delivery that he repeats consistently. He generally throws consistent strikes and is able to locate his fastball to both sides of the plate. His other pitches consist of a curveball and change-up that continually shows growth. Here’s where it gets interesting. Over his last 11 innings out of the pen, Leiter has walked two and struck out 17. His swing and miss rate over that span was 17% and it was 19% in his last appearance. His xERA over that same span was 2.00, which is obviously unsustainable but it shows his progress and upside. There is a huge difference between starting and relieving and we understand that all of the above metrics occurred in relief. However, Leiter is a career starter and those encouraging numbers surely must have instilled a ton of confidence in him. Leiter was making batters look silly up there. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s the son of Al Leiter, a great pitcher in his own right who dominated at this level for years as a member of the Yanks, Mets and Blue Jays over a 17-year career. Working out of the pen the for most of the year, Mark Leiter was showing great deception and greatly improved sequencing and if it carries over into this rotation gig, we may be getting the bargain of the day here and we’re willing to take that gamble.
Cincinnati +155 over CHICAGO
While there is no value in losing any bet, we have to stick with taking back inflated prices against teams’ and starters that don’t win often enough to warrant the price. In 15 starts, Kyle Hendricks has four wins. In eight starts at Wrigley, Hendricks has two wins. In 83 innings overall, Hendricks has a BB/K split of 26/69. Hendricks has shown neither the strikeout rate nor the control he displayed in 2015 or 2016, his first two full seasons as a Chicago starter. His fastball velocity has been more than two mph lower than in 2016 and nearly three mph lower than in 2015, accompanied by a dip in his swing and miss rate. Hendricks is a finesse righty that is capable but he comes with more risk than ever before. Last year, he was helped by MLBs-best defense but xERA is always the reality check and Hendricks’ xERA is not elite.
We get that the Cubbies are tough to beat and that they underachieved in the first half but at the same time, almost every Cub had a career year last season that made them look better than they actually were. Somewhere in between last year’s wins and this year’s losses are the real Cubbies and while they are very good, they’re not invincible. Chicago is seven games over .500 and will now face one of MLB’s still most underrated starters. Luis Castillo is a rookie pitcher who looked like an impact hurler in July (3.62 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) and those marks came with strong skills support: 8.9 K’s/9, 2.4 BB’s/9, 55% groundballs and a terrific xERA of 3.44. However, the risk-averse should note that he had some big struggles getting strike one (52%) and throwing a high volume of strikes (38% ball%). Castillo, however, has filthy stuff and he’s only walked 26 batters all season. His first-pitch strike rate last game was 64% so perhaps July was just an outlier. Castillo is too good with too much reward to be taking back prices like this and therefore we must stick with the plan and keep playing the value.
Tampa Bay +107 over TORONTO
While the Blue Jays remain improbably close to the second Wild Card (at least in terms of games behind), the team continues the tenuous balancing act of having some of its most dependable and relied upon talent excel and flounder simultaneously. In a season where the entire roster has yet to get on an upswing at the same time, one of the few truly consistent positive presences was Marco Estrada, until this year, of course. Buck Martinez and Pat Tabler (Dumb and Dumber) will start the show tonight by suggesting to you that Estrada has found his groove again after three consecutive seven inning outings in which he allowed just four runs over 21 innings, including a 7-inning, five-hit shutout over the Yanks in his last start. Well, once again, we’re here to tell you that he hasn’t found his groove; instead, his good fortune has momentarily reappeared. In that “gem” against the Yanks, Estrada’s swing and miss rate was 6%. Over his last three starts, his ERA/xERA split was 1.71/5.52. Over his last three starts, Estrada’s groundball/fly-ball split was 27%/57% with 14 groundball outs and 45 fly-ball outs. Estrada is throwing 89 MPH and he’s at the mercy of where hard hit balls land. It’s now just a matter of whether or not those balls hit to the outfield find the gaps/get hit over the fence or are run down by the fielders. We can live with the result by knowing we’re going with the best of it here.
Then there’s Blake Snell, the best winless pitcher in the majors over the past decade perhaps. In 15 starts, remarkably, Snell is 0-6 but we are the beneficiaries of his poor fortune in the betting line. Blake Snell’s only problem is that his relationship with the strike zone isn’t very good. However, it’s getting better, as he’s walked just nine batters over his last five starts covering 27 frames. Snell has a diverse arsenal that features a 95 MPH fastball along with a change, slider curve and cutter. His line drive rate is elite at 14%. His groundball rate is strong at 46%. Snell’s been bit by a trifecta of bad luck with a low 69% strand rate, a high hr/f rate and a high BABIP. While his xERA of 4.39 isn’t elite, it’s an extremely serviceable number with a win expectation that is larger than expected losses. Blake Snell is simply too good to be winless but the fact that he’s lost just six times in 15 games shows the fine line between winning and losing. If all things are equal, Snell figures to pick up his first win in his last 17 starts dating back to last year. This has nothing to do with the “due to win” angle, as that’s something we do not adhere to one bit. It’s simply backing the superior pitcher at a price.
Atlanta -1½ +215 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
18-33 + 12.55 units
3G-Sports
Pittsburgh vs. Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee -115
I'm backing the Milwaukee Brewers with Zach Davies over Ivan Nova. The Pirates are on a 1-5 slide in Nova's last six starts and the righthander has been tagged for a 6.75 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and 2.25 HR's per 9 IP ratio during the stretch. The Brewers are 15-6 in his last 21 starts and 6-1 when he starts against teams with a losing record. The Pirates Nova allowed 10 hits and six runs in a loss against the Tigers on Wednesday. He’s allowed double-digit hits in both starts against the Brewers this year, and I like Milwaukee as your comp Tuesday evening.
Doug Upstone
Cleveland at Minnesota
Play: Cleveland -161
Minnesota is starting to be left behind in the AL Central as Cleveland is starting to pull away. The Twins could get back in the race with a series sweep of the Indians, but they are in rough position in the series opener. Underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 like Minnesota,with a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last three games, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher whose ERA less than 2.50 over his last five starts are 24-84 the last five years.
Dave Price
Orioles vs. Mariners
Play: Orioles +104
The Seattle Mariners are a mess right now. They had a golden opportunity to close in on a wild card spot, but have blown it with five straight home losses coming in. They have been held to just 3.2 runs per game during this losing streak while allowing at least 6 runs in 4 of the 5 losses. Wade Miley is pitching well of late at 2-0 with a 2.12 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Andrew Albers makes his first start of the season for the Mariners. He has spent his time mostly in the minors and in the Korean league. When given a chance in the majors, Albers has gone 2-5 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 79 2/3 innings. Miley is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 2 lifetime starts vs. Seattle. The Mariners are 7-19 in their last 26 home games. The Orioles are 4-0 in Miley's last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Baltimore is 7-1 in its last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Jack Jones
Giants vs. Marlins
Play: Marlins
The Miami Marlins are now quietly inching closer to .500 on the season after a great run here of late. The Marlins have won four straight following their 8-3 victory over the Giants yesterday. This is a Giants team that is just 47-73 on the season, including 20-41 in road games.
Daniel Straily has been the best starter for the Marlins this season, especially at home where he is 3-3 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 12 starts. Straily has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three consecutive starts, and two or fewer in eight of his last 11 starts overall. Straily has never lost to the Giants, going 4-0 with a 1.91 ERA and 0.741 WHIP in four career starts against them.
Madison Bumgarner has put up some decent numbers this season, but he hasn't gotten much run support as the Giants are just 2-8 in his 10 starts, and 0-5 in his five road starts. The Marlins have given Bumgarner trouble as he is just 1-3 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.441 WHIP in six career starts against them.
San Francisco is 21-36 (-26.4 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. The Marlins are 6-0 in their last six home games. The Giants are 1-5 in Bumgarner's last six starts vs. Miami.
John Martin
Cardinals vs. Red Sox
Play: Cardinals +129
The St. Louis Cardinals are on a tear right now. They have gone 8-1 in their last nine games overall. They haver scored at least 6 runs in seven of their last eight contests. Now they had yesterday off to get rested and ready for this series in Boston. Meanwhile, the Red Sox had to play a make-up game Monday against the Indians and won't have that same luxury. The Cards have the clear advantage on the mound with Mike Leake, who is 7-10 with a 3.48 ERA in 23 starts this season. Rick Porcello is 6-16 with a 4.63 ERA in 24 starts for the Red Sox, including 4-8 with a 5.24 ERA in 13 home starts. Leake faced Boston on May 17th, giving up only 2 earned runs and 7 base runners in 7 innings of work. Porcello gave up 4 runs and 12 base runners in 6 innings opposite Leake in that game. The Cardinals are 6-1 in Leake's last seven road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Red Sox are 1-7 in Porcello's last eight starts vs. a team with a winning record.