Brandon Lee
Toronto vs. Atlanta
Play: Toronto -130
Toronto is worth a look here, as they are going to come out with a little extra motivation to avoid losing all 4 games against the Braves during their 2-game home-and-home set. The Blue Jays have just the guy on the mound to put a stop to the bleeding, as they send out Marcus Stroman, who is 3-2 with a solid 3.33 ERA in 8 starts, which includes 2 complete games. Stroman's numbers would be even better if not for two bad starts against two loaded lineups in the Yankees and Red Sox. He's allowed 11 earned runs against those two teams and 9 in his other 6 starts combined. On the flip side of this, Atlanta gives the rock to Julio Teheran, who has really struggled at home, going 1-3 with a 8.14 ERA and 1.857 WHIP in 4 starts.
SCOTT RICKENBACH
Brewers vs. Padres
Play: Over 8½
Make no mistake about it, the Padres are one of the weakest hitting teams in the league. However, I do like them to do some damage today in a day game at home and facing a struggling hurler. The Brewers will be starting Zach Davies today and he is 4-2 this season but the 5.80 ERA and 1.74 WHIP tell the real story about the struggling right-hander. Davies also has given up 4 homers in less than 16 innings of work on the road this season. He'll be opposed by Jarred Cosart of the Padres today. If you look at Cosart's numbers throughout his career, the right-hander has struggled to throw strikes to left-handed batters and the right-handed hitters have roughed him up. With various struggles against hitters from both sides of the plate, it's no wonder that Cosart is 2-10 the last 2+ seasons and has a combined 5.07 ERA at the MLB level during this time. He'll struggle against a Brewers team that is a red-hot 8-2 in their last 10 games. Milwaukee has averaged 6.8 runs per game during this hot streak and they have a .467 slugging percentage in games against right-handed starters this season. Yesterday's under between these clubs was the first one either one of these teams have had the past 7 days. Look for the high-scoring results to resume today. The over is 13-4 in Brewers games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season and the over is 11-4 in Padres games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. Also Milwaukee is 7-4 to the over in days games this season while SDG is 8-3 to the over in day games so far this year. More of the same here.
Larry Ness
Red Sox vs. Athletics
Play: Red Sox -103
The Red Sox ended its previous road trip with a 4-1 win at Milwaukee (May 11) and has opened this week by sweeping a two-game IL series at St Louis. Wednesday's 5-4 win was sweet, as the Red Sox trailed by four runs after just two innings bout came away with the victory on Chris Young's two-out RBI single in the 13th inning. Boston is now 21-18 overall and will take a modest three-game road winning streak into a four-game series in Oakland, starting tonight. The A's return home after a 1-5 trip that concluded with a 4-0 Wednesday loss in Seattle.
The pitching matchup for Thursday will be Boston's Hector Velazquez (NR) up against Oakland's Sonny Gray (0-1, 3.78 ERA). Velazquez is being called up from Triple-A Pawtucket where he was 2-1 with a 1.55 ERA in five starts. He recorded 20 strikeouts in 29 innings while issuing only five walks and serving up just one home run while in Triple-A. He went 5-1 with one shutout and a 2.47 ERA in 22 starts last season with Acereros de Monclova of the Mexican League, from whom Boston purchased his contract in February. He will make his major-league debut tonight.
Gray settled for a no-decision at Texas on Saturday despite allowing only two runs in six innings. Gray sustained a strained lat in spring training and didn't make his 2017 season debut until May 2 at Minnesota. He served up three HRs in a 9-1 loss to the Twins in which he allowed four ERs in six innings in his 2017 debut. He has kept the ball in the park over his last two outings but both were no-decisions (Oakland was 1-1).
Gray is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA in three career starts against the Red Sox (A's are 1-2) and his team comes in having won just two of its last eight games, overall. Meanwhile, after averaging just 3.79 RPG through its first 29 games, Boston's lineup is heating up by scoring 66 runs over its last 10 (6.60 RPG). Take the road team in this one.
Teddy Covers
Minnesota -121 Game 2
I don’t normally get involved with Game 2’s of a doubleheader from a service standpoint, in large part because of the inability to gauge the effects of Game 1 on the two bullpens. But this game stands out as an exception to my basic ‘no doubleheaders’ rule for two reasons. First, we want to be on Jose Berrios RIGHT NOW, before the markets catch up. Second, both bullpens should be in decent shape after yesterday’s rainout.
Let’s start with Berrios who led the minor leagues in strikeouts in 2015. Last year, he dominated at AAA but struggled mightily in his transition to the majors; only notching an 8.2% swinging strike rate while nibbling around the corners instead of challenging hitters with his best stuff. The end result was downright ugly: 14 starts, an 8.02 ERA and a 1.87 WHIP, with the Twins going 3-11 in those games. Berrios stuff wasn’t the problem. His ability to harness his nasty stuff effectively was.
Well, that was last year. Berrios opened this season dominating AAA hitters again in April to the tune of a 1.13 ERA. His control problem appeared solved, walking only eight batters in 39.2 innings. And his pitch counts were way down, lasting six innings or more in every start but one. Then Berrios got called up last week and pitched an absolute gem; allowing only two hits in 7.2 innings of work against the defending AL Champs, while walking only one batter.
Minnesota manager Paul Molitor: “You've got to be excited about what we saw out of Jose. He knows he had to fight to get back up here, and he attacked their hitters and limited the damage."
Last year, there was plenty of hype surrounding Berrios as he reached the big leagues, a highly touted prospect for years as he worked his way up through the Twins system. But bettors got burned repeatedly supporting him. The end result? There’s nowhere near the level of hype surrounding Minnesota’s potential ace here in 2017, which offers us a relatively cheap price to get involved supporting Berrios today. And with his newfound ability to last deeper into games, I worry much less about the state of the Minnesota bullpen than I do for other starters.
The Rockies offense is ‘hit or miss’. Over the past week, they’ve scored seven or more three times, and been held to three or less four times. Colorado will feast on weak pitching, for sure, but the better starters can mow them down. And with Tyler Chatwood struggling – only two quality starts in eight tries this season; allowing four runs or more in four of his last five trips to the hill, look for Minnesota to emerge victorious in Game 2 of this doubleheader.
Wunderdog
Baltimore @ Detroit
Pick: Detroit +125
This one is the end of an eight-game road trip for Baltimore. They have the look of a road-weary team, losing five of six while allowing 39 runs the last six contests. The pitching staff has allowed 25 runs the last three nights alone. Baltimore has a losing road record and faces a Detroit squad that is playing its third straight home game. The Detroit offense is heating up, scoring 75 runs the last 11 games. The Tigers have won six of eight against a team with a winning percentage above .600, making this a great situational spot for the home team against the road-weary visitors.
STEVE JANUS
Toronto vs. Atlanta
Play: Toronto -130
Play Against - Home teams (ATLANTA) - good NL offensive team (4.7+ runs/game) against a good AL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or less), with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities. This system is 48-23 (68%) against the money line since 1997.
WESLEY SCOTT
Red Sox vs. Athletics
Play: Red Sox -103
The Boston Red Sox (21-18 Overall, 9-9 Away) open up a three game series against the Oakland Athletics (17-23 Overall, 11-8 Home) in game one of this four game series.
Sonny Gray takes the mound tonight for the A's. He is 0-1 with a 3.78 ERA since returning from injury. Looking to return to old form, Gray faces a solid task against the Red Sox.
Boston is looking to get another road win today with Hector Velazquez taking the mound. This will be his first major league start. He carried a 1.55 ERA in triple A ball be fore being called up.
Rob Vinciletti
Anaheim at Nashville
Play: Anaheim +125
The Ducks have been the best offensive team in the playoffs and are likely to bounce back after struggling to score in game 3. The Ducks are 3-1 when trailing and have won 4 straight when down 2-1 in a series. They are 15-6 after scoring 1 or less goal last out. Nashville has been solid at home but home teams in game 4 that are up 2-1, wining game 1 and losing game 2 on the road and then taking game 3 at home are only .500 historically so the nice line value is on the Ducks in this game. Play on Anaheim in this one.
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for Thursday is on the Los Angeles Dodgers against the Miami Marlins, and I'm laying the Run Line in this game.
Welcome back to Los Angeles, Don Mattingly.
The former Dodgers skipper returns to Chavez Ravine as manager of Miami, and something tells me this series lid-lifter will be ugly.
The Dodgers are pissed about losing a series in San Francisco, despite Wednesday's win behind Clayton Kershaw, and Miami stumbles into town mired in a three-game losing streak.
Miami comes in after being hammered by the Houston Astros, being outscored 22-4 in three home games, getting blanked 3-0 in the series finale yesterday. The Marlins are 4-17 since opening the season 10-7. They were just 1-7 at home, and now have to go into L.A. for this series.
That said, I don't mind saying we're at an advantage when the Fish hand the ball to Edinson Volquez (0-5, 4.41 ERA), as the Marlins are 1-7 when he toes the slab.
Take the Dodgers here, as they roll to the easy win.
1* DODGERS -1.5
Brad Wilton
Thursday night comp play winner is Boston and Oakland to open their series with plenty of runs.
The Red Sox enter play this Thursday having played 5 in a row, and 9 of their last 10 Over the posted total!
Hector Velazquez will make his major league debut tonight, and pitching at this level is a quite a bit different than having success at the minor league level. Figure on Velazquez giving up a few runs for sure.
Oakland had a string of 4 straight Overs snapped in their last game, and they will go with Sonny Gray who has not been the same since returning from injury. Gray is 0-1 in his limited time back, and sports and ERA of 3.78. All 3 of his starts this year have played Over the total, and 8 of his last 10 starts at home have also played Over the total.
Best to stick with the trends and go with an Over tonight between the Red Sox and the Athletics.
3* BOSTON-OAKLAND OVER
Jeff Benton
Thursday comp play is the Under in the Ducks-Predators contest.
Aside from Game Two's final score, 5-3 in favor of the Ducks, the Preds and Pekke Rinne have been very tough to pot a puck on, as Nashville has allowed a grand total of 22 goals in their 13 playoff games contested. That is counting the 5 netted in Game Two!
The Under stands at 5-1-1 for the last 7 Predators playoff games, while the Ducks are now 2-1-1 Under their last 4 this postseason.
The last 6 meetings between the teams in Nashville have seen the Under go 3-0-3, so while the offense could explode, have to back both Rinne and John Gibson to stand tall between the pipes and for the Under to once again come through in this Ducks-Predators series.
Game Four to hold Under at the Bridgestone Arena this Thursday night.
3* ANAHEIM-NASHVILLE UNDER
JOHN MARTIN
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 +115
Edinson Volquez is still looking for his first win of the season for the Marlins and he's not going to get it tonight. Volquez is 0-5 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in seven starts this season. He is 3-4 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in nine starts against the Dodgers. The Marlins are just 1-8 in their last nine games overall. They have scored a total of eight runs in their last five games as their lineup is ice cold. Hyun-Jin Ryu should mow down the Marlins with ease. Ryu is 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in two starts against them prior. The Dodgers are 19-3 at home with a total of 8 to 8.5 over the last two seasons. They are winning by 2.5 runs per game.
DARRYL TUCHOLSKI
Yankees vs. Royals
Play: Royals +105
The Royals enter tonight on a 2 game losing streak, however they are 11-11 at home. Duffy has allowed only 3 ER in his last two games, and that came against offensive juggernauts in the Orioles, and Indians. Trust the veteran, despite how well the Yankees are playing on the road.
DAVE PRICE
White Sox/Mariners Over 8.5
Both the White Sox and Mariners come in swinging the bats well. The White Sox have scored 14 runs in their past two games, but their staff has been worked hard in giving up 19 runs to the Angels the past two days. The Mariners have scored 16 runs in their last three games in a series with the A's. Dylan Covey will get lit up again just as he has all season. Covey is 0-3 with a 7.98 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in 6 starts, and 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in 4 road starts. Sam Gaviglio will be making his first major league start today for the Mariners due to some injuries. He is used to coming out of the bullpen, and now the bullpen will likely be stretched in this one. This is an awful Mariners bullpen with a 5.39 ERA on the season. Runs will be scored in bunches tonight.
PRO COMPUTER GAMBLER
Red Sox vs. Athletics
Play: Red Sox -103
SYSTEM OF THE DAY: A team that has been hitting well vs. a team starting a pitcher who got 1 or 2 runs L2 starts and the team he is on pulled very few errors in their last two go 1209-1081 +176.59 units +6.5% roi - Active to Play on the Red Sox and Cubs