Free Picks for Saturday, May 27th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Mike Lundin
Tigers vs. White Sox
Play: Tigers -137
The Chicago White Sox put an 8-2 beating on the Detroit Tigers Friday night. I think we'll see the Tigers get revenge in the first game of a double-header Saturday afternoon.
Michael Fulmer (5-2, 2.55 ERA) is scheduled to toe the slab for Detroit here in the early game. Fulmer has posted nine consecutive quality starts to open the season and pitched at least seven innings in four straight starts. He held the powerful Astros to one run in seven frames his last time out. Fulmer has gone a perfect 7-0 with a 2.12 ERA 12 career day starts.
The White Sox turn to Derek Holland (4-3, 2.47 ERA) who is coming off eight solid innings of one-run ball at Seattle, but he was tagged with seven runs (three earned) on six hits and four walks with three homers his last outing here at Guaranteed Rate Field. The Tigers are 5-1 in their last six road games vs. a left-handed starter.
John Martin
Rangers vs. Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -102
The Toronto Blue Jays now have two of their top hitters back in the lineup. Both Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki returned yesterday, and this could now be a scary team going forward. They've now won four straight after beating the Rangers 7-6 last night. Now Marco Estrada gets the ball Saturday. Estrada has gone 3-2 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 10 starts with 70 K's in 62 2/3 innings. He is 1-0 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in four home starts as well. Estrada has owned the Rangers, going 3-1 with a 2.10 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in six starts. The Rangers are 4-17 in their last 21 vs. American League East. The Blue Jays are 23-9 in the last 32 meetings, and 5-0 in the last five home meetings. The Rangers are 1-5 in Yu Darvish's last six starts against Toronto.
Scott Spreitzer
Rangers vs. Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays +103
Yu Darvish labored through five innings in a 5-2 win over Detroit on Sunday night while throwing 105 pitches. He had lot of success against Toronto before his Tommy John surgery, but in the ALDS last year, he gave up five runs in five innings against the Blue Jays, who won the game 5-3. The Rangers won 10 in a row with all but one of those games at home, but now back on the road Texas has lost five of its last six games, including 7-6 on Friday night. Texas now is 8-17 away from home this season while Toronto evened its home record at 11-11 with Friday's win. Marco Estrada comes off a 3-1 win over Baltimore when he allowed a run on five hits in 7 2/3 innings. Estrada has a 2.52 ERA in 25 innings at home where teams are batting just .202 against him. Current Texas players have a collective .211 batting average against Estrada.
Marc Lawrence
New York at Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh -138
Edges - Pirates: Cole 1.67 ERA with 0.78 WHIP home as opposed to 4.67 ERA and 1.38 WHIP away this season; and Cole 6-1 last seven home team starts during May, including 4-0 the last four… With Cole off a loss and the Pirates 6-1 on Saturdays this season, we recommend a 1* play on Pittsburgh.
Jack Jones
White Sox +132 Game 1
The Chicago White Sox put an end to their 3-game losing streak with an 8-2 home victory over the Detroit Tigers yesterday. They were just 3-7 in their 10-game road trip prior to this series and are certainly happy to be back home now.
The White Sox are showing tremendous value as a big home dog in Game 1 of this double-header Saturday. Derek Holland hasn't been getting the respect he deserves from odddsmakers. Holland is 4-3 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.189 WHIP in nine starts this year.
Holland has never lost to the Tigers in seven career starts against them. He has posted a 3.89 ERA in those seven starts, and his teams are actually a perfect 7-0 against the money line in those outings.
Holland is 6-0 (+7.3 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 or higher over the last two seasons. Holland is 7-1 (+8.2 Units) against the money line in day games over the last two seasons. The White Sox are 4-1 in their last five home meetings with the Tigers.
Dave Price
New York at Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh -117
We're getting ace Gerrit Cole and the Pittsburgh Pirates are a great price Saturday. Cole sports a 3.36 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 10 starts this year. He is 1-1 with a 1.67 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in 4 home starts this season. Cole pitched 8 1/3 innings with 10 strikeouts without allowing a single earned run in his last start against the Mets, a 4-1 home victory. The Mets are 1-6 in their last 7 road games. The Pirates are 74-36 in their last 110 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Larry Wallace
Cardinals vs. Rockies
Play: Cardinals +103
I like the Cardinals in this match-up against the Rockies. Wainwright has turned his season around after losing 3 straight by winning 4 consecutive starts. St. Louis is 8-2 in their last 10 games that were played on Saturday. Also, the Cardinals are 21-5 when Wainwright takes the mound on a Saturday.
Brandon Shively
Kansas City vs. Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland -155
The Cleveland Indians start Danny Salazar here, and I think he is undervalued right now. Salazar has elite stuff, but has struggled with his command early in the year. He is much better pitching at home, and he matches up well against a Royals team that doesn't have depth in the lineup.
Jason Vargas has slumped in his last couple starts after starting the season red hot.
The Indians are a pretty big favorite here, but I think this line should be much higher. The Tribe have the best bullpen in baseball and their offense is starting to hit the ball much better.
MMA OddsBreaker
Cirkunov v Oezdemir
Pick: Over 1.5
I think this light heavyweight bout is closer than the betting odds indicate, however I am not moved to pull the trigger on Oezdemir. I do see this as a dog or pass situation, but I am going to ultimately make a pass on playing the underdog, and instead make a play on the Total here. I like the Over 1.5 rounds at -115, as I think there is a good chance this 205-pound contest hits the judges’ scorecards for a decision. I think the line for the Over 1.5 rounds total should be -180, so I think there’s good value in the current offering price. Cirkunov is coming off a first round submission of Nikita Krylov, while Oezdemir is coming off a split decision win over Ovince St. Preux. Both 205-pounders will be looking to keep their records unblemished heading into this matchup.
Jim Feist
Cubs at Dodgers
Pick: Under
Dodger stadium is a huge park, great for pitchers. The Under is 9-2-1 in the Cubs last 12 vs. the National League West. Both starting pitchers are great at throwing strikes. LA is tops in baseball in team pitching. Brandon McCarthy is 4-1 with a 3.76 ERA and the Under is 34-16-1 in the Dodgers last 51 during game 2 of a series. The under is 19-5 when these teams clash, 20-9-3 under at Dodger stadium.
Raphael Esparza
David Allen (-275) over Lenroy Thomas
Offshore books like 5dimes, Bookmaker, and BetCRIS all have lined this fight and this fight will be entertaining. Since David Allen lost to Luiz Ortiz in December 2016 he has come back with a vengeance. He has won back-to-back fights by KO and I'm not sold on the chin of Lenroy Thomas. Thomas has been KO'd three out of his last 7 fights and if you can establish the jab on him early you will be able to KO him in the late rounds. Look for David Allen to attack the body early and that will open up the right cross and I see David Allen putting down Lenroy Thomas between rounds 7 through 9. I highly recommend trying to find a book that carries this fight because I smell an easy free boxing WINNER!
Dave Cokin
Warriors in 5 Games +250
I already outlined reasons I believe Golden State will win this series. But rather than spotting a series price that to me is now unplayable, I will go for a price and try to pick the exact number of games.
I can’t see the Warriors getting a sweep in this series, but I do believe this is a good matchup for GS and I believe they have a very good chance to close the Cavs out in less than the maximum seven games.
The one big key for me is Kevin Love’s defense, which isn’t very good and could be seriously exposed in this series. LeBron James and Kyrie Irving are going to do their share of damage to be sure, but I see the Warriors as the better squad here and I really don’t think they’re going to need all seven games to prove it.
So I’m going to take a shot and play the Warriors to win this in five games. I like them to get the first two at Oracle, split at Cleveland, and wrap it up back home in Game Five. I’m not going full bore on this, just a half unit, but Warriors in five is the recommended play.
Ray Monohan
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers
Play: Diamondbacks -135
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Milwaukee Brewers face off on Saturday afternoon and I think the Diamondbacks have a ton of value in this one. Why do the Diamondbacks have so much value at this price? Because Zack Greinke is on the mound for them, and he has been excellent this year. He comes into this game with a 6-2 record and an ERA of 2.82. He has 78 strikeouts in 67 innings. He hasn't given up more then four runs in any of his last seven starts.
On the mound for the Brewers is Chase Anderson who comes into this game struggling. He has gone 9.1 innings in his last two starts and given up ten runs total. I think the Diamondbacks will be able to jump all over him early. Some trends to note. Diamondbacks are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter. Brewers are 1-7 in Andersons last 8 Saturday starts.
Dustin Hawkins
Cincinnati at Philadelhia
Play: Philadelphia -135
The Reds are 18-55 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start over the past 2 seasons. The Phillies are 15-9 in home games after 2 straight games in which they committed no errors over the past 2 seasons.