Oskeim Sports
Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox -143
Chicago is 26-8 at home against the Mariners since 2008 and sends southpaw Jose Quintana to the mound, who has garnered double-digit wins in a season for the first time in his big league career. Quintana boasts a 2.84 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and a 3.43 FIP in 2016 with 21.6% strikeout rate and a 5.8% walk rate. The talented lefty has also posted a 2.87 ERA at home (3.73 xFIP), a 2.60 ERA in August (3.87 FIP) and a 1.91 ERA in the second half (3.38 FIP).
Quintana is also backed by a solid Chicago bullpen that owns a 2.78 ERA and 1.32 WHIP at home this season. Look for the most underrated starting pitcher in the American League to continue his second-half surge against an anemic Seattle lineup averaging just 3.9 runs per game versus left-handed starters this season (.239 AVG., .298 OBP, .690 OPS).
Let's also note that the Mariners are a money-burning 3-8 in their last 11 games versus left-handed starters, 8-19 in their last 27 road games versus teams with a winning home record and 1-4 in their last five games following a win.
Meanwhile, Chicago is 6-0 in its last six home games versus left-handed starters, 7-3 in its last ten games off a loss, 5-0 in Quintana's last five starts against American League West foes and 4-0 in Quintana's last four outings during game 3 of a series. It also doesn't hurt that the White Sox are an incredible 36-17 in the last 53 meetings in this series and 41-14 at home.
With Melky Cabrera expected back in the lineup for tonight's game (missed last two games due to flu-like symptoms), take the White Sox and invest with confidence.
Executive Sports
Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders
Play: Tennessee Titans +3
Both teams come into this game at 1-1. Tennessee's rushing defense has played much better (gave up 168 yds in 2 games) than the Raiders has (gave up 317 in their 2 games). Both are looking to bounce back off a loss.
David Banks
Tennessee Titans @ Oakland Raiders
Pick: Tennessee Titans +3
If there is one team that many are speculating to break out this season, it’s the Oakland Raiders. If there is a second, it may very well be the Tennessee Titans. The two teams will meet on Saturday night in Week 3 of the preseason. Both teams are expected to play their starters substantially, which for Tennessee means figuring out a way to split carries between running backs DeMarco Murray and rookie Derrick Henry.
Both teams feature young quarterbacks and many see the Titans Marcus Mariota and the Raiders Derek Carr as two of the best young QBs in the NFL. With Mariota able to hand off to two big and very capable running backs, it only makes the passing game better. Mariota looked sharp last week when he completed 9-of-10 pass attempts for 104 yards and a touchdown against Carolina.
Carr and the Raiders are looked at by many to challenge for the AFC West Division title. They have one of the NFL’s best receivers in second-year pro Amari Cooper. The former Alabama star missed some practice time during the week, but he did practice Wednesday. On the other side is veteran Michael Crabtree. Add in running back Latavius Murray (1,066 yards in 2015) and the Raiders have the makings of a very good offense.
On the defensive side, the Raiders are also loaded with talent and it begins with Khalil Mack. The defensive end will challenge for the NFL’s MVP award. He recorded 15 sacks last season and is a star in a defense that also features DE Mario Edwards Jr., LB Bruce Irvin, and safety Karl Joseph.
Chase Diamond
Lions at Ravens
Play: Lions
This week 3 preseason game has the 1-1 Detroit Lions at the 2-0 Ravens. The Ravens might be 2-0 in the preseason but they have won by a razor thin number. Lions are 26-8 SU and 24-9-1 ATS in the preseason since 2008. It's to bad the preseason doesn't translate to regular season wins for the Lions. Money is 50/50 basically on this game but the sharp cash seems to be leaning toward the Lions as you are seeing this number dip below 3 in most spots. Undefeated teams with a 2-0 or better record have are just 1-9 11% ATS if their winning scoring margin was less than +3.0 ppg and that is what you have here tonight folks.
SPORTS WAGERS
San Diego +130 over MIAMI
Jose Urena goes from being a +140 underdog in Pittsburgh to being a -140 favorite over San Diego six days later. The Padres are a scrappy and enthusiastic bunch that can score runs and that is not easy to defeat. Urena threw a six inning, four-hitter (2 ER) in Pittsburgh but the Pirates feature a weak offense in a pitcher friendly environment. Urena only struck out three batters in those six frames. He now has a mere 33 K’s in 48 innings. His WHIP is in trouble territory at 1.48. Urena’s 6.33/4.96 ERA/xERA split reveals more trouble. Jose Urena has potential. He’s just 24 years old and throws a 95 MPH fastball with regularity and he also features a good slider. What he hasn’t shown is the ability to escape jams or put away hitters when he gets two strikes on them. Urena is a risk and not ready yet to take on the role of the chalk.
Clayton Richard is a name from the past that has made just two starts this season while appearing in 27 games out of the pen. Richard is a starter by heart. In 199 career appearances, 134 of them came as a starter. In 11 innings as starter in his last two appearances, Richard has surrendered a mere five hits. He is also inducing groundballs at an elite 61% rate. In his first start, Richard threw just 74 pitches in five full innings but was stretched out in his second start, going six full and throwing 92 pitches. Richard is 32 years old and does not have a lot of miles on his arm. He missed much time due to injuries the past two years but appears healthy and in good form. His swinging strike rate in his first two starts was also elite at 13% and when you combine that with a 69% overall groundball rate, you have one of the most under-the-radar pitchers on the board today.
Atlanta +154 over SAN FRAN
Jake Peavy shifts back into the rotation after eight straight games out of the pen. Peavy shifts back in because Matt Cain was injured and the Giants have few other options. Frankly, we couldn’t care less what his relief stats are because they mean nothing. Anyone can get one or two batters out once every three days. Peavy’s underlying metrics as a starter give little reason for optimism. For one, the strikeouts continue to dwindle and his swing and miss rate doesn’t hint at any enhancement on the horizon. His xERA continues to head down a negative track. It’s clear that Peavy’s best days are behind him. As things stand now, this would be his third consecutive 4.50+ xERA, and it has risen in each of those years. As the chalk, Jake Peavy is instant fade material when facing a pitcher that is much better than he is. Mike Foltynewicz is one such pitcher.
Foltynewicz has shown sustained signs in 2016 of being able to translate his good raw stuff into skills. In spite of a 4.55 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, Foltynewicz has posted an impressive collection of skills: 8.2 K’s/9, 2.4 BB’s/9, 43% grounders and an outstanding base performance score. Even more impressive was his 11.1% swing and miss stuff since July 1 and his 33% ball%, a reflection of both his stuff and improving volume of strikes. In addition to his mid-90s fastball that has been highly regarded by scouts, Foltynewicz is getting a 10%+ swing and miss rate on four additional pitches. He is one of two pitchers in the game that can make that claim. The other is Clayton Kershaw. Foltynewicz’s weak surface stats in July were the direct result of an inflated 17% hr/f more than a lack of skills. The window to buy low on him could close quickly. If you are not in a position to buy out of liability after five innings, (some people actually go out on Saturday night), that might be the better bet. We’re playing it full game because of the in-game options.
Jimmy Boyd
Orioles vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -106
I cashed in my 5* Top Play on the Yankees last night and I'm firing back with NY as my free pick on Saturday. The Yankees are playing some of their best baseball of the season right now and are absolutely on fire at the plate, scoring at least 5 runs in 6 of their last 7 games, including a 14-run outburst last night.
New York will send out Chad Green, who has really looked sharp in his last two outings. Green first held the Blue Jays to just 2 runs with 11 strikeouts over 6 scoreless innings at home. He followed that up by allowing only 1 run on 5 hits in 6 innings at LA. I'll take my chances here with Green, given how the Yankees are swinging the bat. New York will face talented youngster Dylan Bundy, who is 5-3 with a 3.56 ERA in 8 starts, but has struggled on the road, where he has a 4.20 ERA in 3 starts. Bundy also has a 4.50 ERA over his last 3 starts. Could be some nerves here for the youngster, who will be making his first ever start at Yankee Stadium.
Baltimore is just 1-4 in their last 5 after allowing 5 or more runs and 1-5 in their last 6 against the AL East. Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 5 or more runs, and 9-3 in their last 12 home games against a team with a losing road record.
Brandon Lee
Pirates vs. Brewers
Play: Under 8½
The books have set the bar too high for Saturday's NL Central clash between the Pirates and Brewers. Both of these teams come into this contest struggling at the plate. Pittsburgh is hitting just .215 as a team over their last 7 games and Milwaukee is only hitting .226 as a team over their last 7. I look for the struggles to continue with the starting pitching matchup we have going in this one. The Pirates will send out Jameson Taillon, who has a 3.00 ERA in 5 road starts and a 2.05 ERA in his last 3 outings. Brewers will counter with Jimmy Nelson, who is coming off a strong home start against the Rockies and has a 3.22 ERA in 14 home starts. UNDER is 13-4 in Pittsburgh's last 17 with a hot bullpen that has a WHIP of 1.200 or less in their last 10 games and 9-1 in Milwaukee's last 10 home games with a hot bullpen that has a WHIP of 1.000 or less in their last 5.
Jack Jones
Cleveland Indians -125
The Cleveland Indians are chasing down the Texas Rangers for the best record in the American League and home-field advantage throughout the postseason. They are currently one game behind the Rangers and tied in the loss column.
I believe the Indians are worth the price of admission today due to their massive edge on the mound. Carlos Carrasco is 9-6 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in 20 starts this season, including 6-3 with a 1.74 ERA and 0.772 WHIP in 10 road starts as he's clearly been at his best away from home.
A.J. Griffin wouldn't start for most teams in the majors. He is 5-3 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.317 WHIP in 17 starts this season. Griffin has really been pummeled of late, going 0-2 with a 7.41 ERA and 1.705 WHIP in his last three starts. Look for the Indians to jump on him early and often in this one.
The Indians are 10-3 in their last 13 vs. AL West opponents. Cleveland is 19-7 in Carrasco's last 26 road starts. The Indians are 10-2 in Carrasco's last 12 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Cleveland is 16-7 in the last 23 meetings.
Tony Karpinski
Titans vs. Raiders
Play: Raiders -3
The offensive line of Tennessee has been driving their coaches nuts. Quinton Spain has not been doing a great job so far in the pre-season - his role may be getting reduced due to some poor play and slow hands. Potentially dealing with Khalil Mack isn't going to be very good.
Oakland stays true to who they are, especially on the offensive side of the ball, make no mistake about it. Derek Carr has been playing lights out in the time he has played in the lineup, hitting big passes and taking smart risks - I fully expect the same thing on Saturday
Raiders are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC
Matt Josephs
Pirates vs. Brewers
Play: Under 8½
Jameson Taillon gets to face the Brewers for the third time in just over a month on Saturday. The righty has held Milwaukee to three runs and 11 hits over 12 innings so far. Taillon is in good form right now too having allowed five runs and 13 hits over 22 innings. The Brewers are hitting around .225 in divisional games and are not in good form offensively right now. Pittsburgh's bullpen has a sub three ERA on the road. Jimmy Nelson is 5-6 with a 3.22 ERA in 14 starts at home with nine of them going under the total. Nelson beat the Pirates on the road back in April holding them to three runs and four hits in six innings. The Pirates are also struggling offensively right now. Entering Friday night, they had scored 18 runs over their last six games. Yes, Milwaukee's bullpen is an issue, but hopefully Nelson is able to go deep enough to prevent this from being an issue. I think the under is a nice play here.
Bob Harvey
Pirates vs. Brewers
Play: Pirates -147
The Pirates look to keep their playoff hopes alive when they visit the Milwaukee Brewers in the second-game of a four-game series. First pitch is set for 7:10 PM ET at Miller Park where Pittsburgh is a -147 moneyline favorite. The total is 8.5.
The Pirates (64-61, 30-31 road) have managed to stay above the .500 mark despite a disappointing season from Andrew McCutcheon who is hitting .250 with 19 home runs and 55 RBI’s while. Sterling Marte and Gregory Polanco have been steady; Marte is batting .304 with 43 stolen bases while Polanco has a team leading 19 homers and 72 runs drive in.
The Brewers (56-71, 36-30 home) have done well against the Bucs especially at Miller Park. Since 2007, the Brewers are 64-18 vs. their counterparts from Pittsburgh.
Jameson Taillon (3-3, 2.92 ERA) has been better than advertised. The former first round pick has looked every bit as good as advertised through the first 12 starts of his career. He's coming off one of his best outings of the season, striking out a career-high eight batters while holding the Astros to two runs and four hits in a victory. It marked the third time that Tallion worked eight innings this season.
Jimmy Nelson (7-13, 4.26 ERA) snapped a six-game losing streak his last time out by holding the Rockies to two runs despite seven hits in six innings. During his losing streak, Nelson had posted an 8.04 ERA.
Pittsburgh is 7-2 in Taillon’s last nine starts.
Dave Price
Kansas City Royals +153
The resiliency of the defending world champion Royals has been incredible. Left for dead 3 weeks ago, the Royals are now legitimate playoff contenders after going 16-3 in their last 19 games overall. Now they are massive underdogs to the Red Sox once again when they shouldn't be. I would argue that Danny Duffy is the better starter in this matchup with David Price. Duffy is 11-1 with a 2.61 ERA and 0.978 WHIP in 19 starts, 5-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.846 WHIP in 8 road starts, and 3-0 with a 1.16 ERA in his last 3 starts. Price is 12-8 with a 4.00 ERA in 27 starts this year. The Royals are 16-3 in Duffy's 19 starts this season, including 10-0 in his 10 starts in the 2nd half of the season.
Power Sports
Kansas City vs. Boston
Pick: Boston
I'm just not sure that I buy into this late season Royals' resurgence. A 6-3 win last night at Fenway Park does make it 11 wins in the 12 last games for the two-time defending AL pennant winners. But they were outhit 15-9 in the victory. Then there's the matter that despite being six games over .500 for the year, they've actually been outscored by 19 runs. That's a win expectancy of 62, a five-game difference from their actual record. Their road record is still 27-40, which is third worst among AL teams. I'm taking Boston to bounce back Saturday night.
The Red Sox have the best run differential in the entire American League at +116. No other team has outscored its opponents by more than 100 runs. This is largely due to having the #1 offense in the game (692 runs scored). For the sake of comparison, the Royals have scored only 507 runs this year, which is actually the fewest among AL clubs.
The price has come way down on Boston since the line opened. Speaking of "price," it will be David going for the Sox tonight. He's won his L3 starts w/ a 1.64 ERA and 0.864 WHIP. On Monday, he shut Tampa Bay out for eight innings, allowing only two hits. He's opposed by Danny Duffy, who I suspect is the driving force behind the line move. The Royals have won each of his last 11 starts. But he hasn't faced an offense quite like this one (Red Sox average 6.0 rpg at home). Off three consecutive losses (as they are here), the Red Sox are 7-1 this season.
Bob Balfe
Titans/Raiders Over 42
Why not a total to end the preseason! This game showcases a lot of good running backs on both teams. Neither defense has looked sharp this preseason. The run sets up the pass so if you can’t stop one it means you won’t stop the other. This should be a very entertaining preseason game with some big plays even in garbage time.
Cubs -110
Two nights ago the Dodgers were almost no hit. Last night the Dodgers blew the baseball game. When it rains it pours and it is very hard to get back on track when you are playing a great baseball team. This game will have another playoff feel to it. The Cubs look like a team that might break the curse this season.
Jim Feist
Pirates at Brewers
Play: Pirates
The Pittsburgh Pirates have talented and balance, winning six in a row on the road. Jordy Mercer's first career grand slam powered the Pirates to a 5-3 victory on Friday, keeping them within 2 1/2 games of St. Louis for the second NL wild-card spot. The Pirates unleach Jameson Taillon (3-3, 2.92 ERA), tossing eight straight quality starts and going at least six innings in 10 of his 12 outings. The Brewers are 25-53 in their last 78 vs. a team with a winning record, plus 17-38 vs. a right-handed starter.