Cheez-It 355 at The Glen
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
We've got the second road course race of the season this Sunday, the type of racing in NASCAR I enjoy the most, but first let's discuss how big of a win rookie Chris Buescher's was at Pocono Raceway on Monday. All the stars had to align perfectly for Buescher to become the longest shot in Las Vegas ever to win a NASCAR race. How does 1,000/1 odds sound? That's what he was posted at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook all week prior to the race.
I always say that those long shot wagers are terrible bets in NASCAR and from my time behind the counter, I loved it when people would waste their $5 and $10 bets on drivers 100/1 odds or higher.
"Thank you, hope to see you next week, too." It was easy money for the sports books, including those that took the 'field' bet saying "anything can happen."
But in the case of Pocono, when I looked at it after the fact, I understood that rain is always a factor and six races there over the years have been called final before all scheduled laps ran, and several more delayed with threats of being called. That's where the "anything can happen" part has some merit and that "anything" happened to the most extreme on Monday. Here's 1,000-to-1 worth of scenarios that had to happen for Buescher:
First of all, Buescher needed rain to cancel Sunday's race. He also needed an earlier start time Monday and he also needed fog to roll over the track. He needed great advice from veteran crew chief Bob Osborne to stay out on the track the latest after everyone pitted despite being light on fuel himself. That gave him the lead. He needed the fog to be so thick, something rarely seen at other tracks, that the caution flag dropped on lap 133, and he could conserve fuel going at the pace car speed. He needed the fog to get even thicker to the point visibility was impossible causing the red flag to drop with 22 laps remaining, which made his lack of fuel problem a non-issue with the car parked. He needed an effective rain dance when he got out of the car on pit road playing the wait game. And then he needed the fog to hover more and another storm front come over and start dropping rain making it impossible for the track to dry quick enough and for the race to start again.
He got all of that to happen, 1,000-to-1 worth of scenarios. Buescher didn't have a top-10 in the first 21 races and with the win his average finish position this season rose to 27.8. The only rookie to ever win his first race at Pocono was Denny Hamlin in 2006 - 78 races all-time -- and 11 Pocono races had passed since a Ford last won there (Greg Biffle, 2010). Multiply all the circumstances that had to take place for Buescher to win you're looking at what should have probably been 100,000-to-1 odds.
The SuperBook reported that no one took a shot with Buescher at their book, so we can't call it the longest odds to 'cash', but William Hill's chain of 106 sports books had Buescher as part of the "field" bet at odds ranging from 200-to-1 up to 300-to-1 with 28 tickets written on it totaling $128.
Despite all that stuff happening for Buescher and a few people walking tall turning their $5 bet into $1,500, I still say it's not a smart bet. But then again, if I'm so smart, how come I didn't cash an odds to win bet last week? Congrats to all those who kept at it weekly with those 'field' bets that finally cashed.
Alright, let's get back to this week's race at Watkins Glen, the 22nd race of the season and final road course race of year -- put one in the Chase please, instead of five 1.5-mile tracks for the final 10 races.
It's quite a pleasant change to see drivers make both right and left turns after watching them drive in circles in all the other races. Some drivers thrive on the courses and have a decided edge every time out while others can't wait for the weekend to end and move on to a more traditional track.
The first driver we need to talk about as a candidate to win is Tony Stewart, the winningest driver ever at Watkins Glen with five victories in 15 starts. In June, he punched his ticket into the Chase by winning at NASCAR's other road course in Sonoma, which was his eighth career road course win, second behind Jeff Gordon's nine wins for most in NASCAR history. His 11.09 average finish in 33 career road course starts is tops in the series - Gordon has a 13th-place average.
Stewart missed the first eight races of the season due to a back injury caused by a recreational off-road accident prior to Daytona Speedweeks and when he returned he was sluggish and a bit apprehensive. When the Sonoma race came around, he was still in the midst of mediocrity and I didn't even consider him a real contender to win just because he wasn't the typical Stewart I had seen from years past.
But as soon as that victory came, his first since 2013, all of a sudden he seemed to have his competitive juices flowing at full throttle again. He no longer seemed to be dragging emotionally from his role in the death of driver Kevin Ward in a non-NASCAR sanctioned Sprint race in 2014. The win brought out a more tenacious Stewart, just like the old days. His Sonoma win was his first top-five of the season, but then he went on to finish fifth at Kentucky, second at New Hampshire, 11th at Indianapolis and fifth Monday at Pocono. Yep, those sure look like finishes from classic 'Smoke'.
Now just because Stewart won at Sonoma doesn't mean he should be a favorite to win this week. Despite both being labeled road courses, Watkins Glen is a much faster track with long straights compared to Sonoma's technical course featuring elevation changes. The pole winning speed at Sonoma in June was 95.77 mph by Carl Edwards. Last August at Watkins Glen year it was A.J. Allmendinger at 127.83 mph.
But now we have Stewart on his best track with car that looks to be similar in performance to teammates Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch, who have been piling up the most top-10s in the series. He's got his mind set straight and he's hungry as ever for more wins with hopes that it leads to his fourth career Sprint Cup Championship in what is his final season. Getting 10/1 odds or higher on him this week is a good play in his new state of mind.
Others that have fared well at Watkins include Edwards, who has never won there, but has an 8.4 average finish in 11 starts. Allmendinger captured his only career victory at the Glen in 2014 and this week is his only legitimate shot to make the Chase by winning.
Kyle Busch has won twice there over his career and was runner-up last season. Brad Keselowski has been runner-up three times and his teammate Joey Logano won last year for the first time on a road course.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #14 Tony Stewart (12/1)
2) #18 Kyle Busch (7/1)
3) #41 Kurt Busch (9/1)
4) #2 Brad Keselowski (10/1)
5) #4 Kevin Harvick (8/1)
Drivers to Watch - Watkins Glen
By Sportsbook.ag
The Sprint Cup drivers battle in Watkins Glen for the Cheez-It 355 on Sunday. This race is different than most, as it is actually a road course.
That means there are not only four turns and that adds some serious randomness to this race. It is, however, not going to be completely wild, as there are drivers that have had their way in this race.
Tony Stewart is a guy that has dominated here in the past, winning five times in his career (2002, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2009).
Jeff Gordon has also done extremely well, winning four times in his career (1997, 1998, 1999, 2001). With him subbing for the injured Dale Earnhardt Jr., this will likely be his last ever chance to tie Stewart for the most wins at this event.
And finally, Kyle Busch is the only other driver with multiple victories (2008, 2013) at Watkins Glen. Joey Logano, meanwhile, has just one victory, but he does come into this thing as the defending champion.
With that out of the way, here are some of the best values to win this race on Sunday.
Drivers to Watch
Joey Logano (8/1) - Joey Logano is coming off of a brutal performance in Pennsylvania, as he ended up getting into an accident and finishing in 37th. The outcome of that race is likely going to fuel the young driver and he should come into this one rather hungry for a win. Logano had been racing well before last week, so it was also more of a fluke that he had a poor showing. He had finished inside the top-10 at seven of his previous eight races before the wreck and should be able to get back on track here. It also helps that Logano is the defending champion coming into this race, so he is more than comfortable racing on the road course. His odds may not be too favorable, but he is worth putting a few units on.
Jeff Gordon (25/1) - Gordon has not raced very well since returning to the track, coming in 13th place in Indianapolis and following it up with a 27th-place finish at Pocono Raceway last weekend. He is, however, going to feel more and more at home the more he races and this week he is returning to a track that he has dominated on in his career. Gordon may not have any recent victories at Watkins Glen, but he has still emerged victorious here four times in his career. Taking a shot on Gordon to win is a wise move, as his odds are pretty solid and he will definitely be hungry to tie Stewart for most ever wins on this track. It could be his final chance to do so and he definitely is well aware of that.
Tony Stewart (18/1) - Tony Stewart is the all-time winningest driver at Watkins Glen and he will certainly be looking to pick up one more victory in what is likely his last ever race at the track. Stewart is retiring after the year and he will be looking to keep up his excellent racing on the year so he can go out with a bang. Stewart has shocked a lot of people by coming up with four top-five finishes on the year already. He didn’t finish inside the top-five once a year ago and is now racing like one of the better Sprint Cup drivers around. Look for him to keep that up at a track he loves and don’t be afraid to put a few units on him.
Chase Elliott (25/1) - Chase Elliott has had an impressive year, but he has still failed to win a race and that is going to come back to haunt him if it doesn’t change on Sunday. Elliott has a chance of getting into the playoffs this season, but he is going to need to win a race and he needs to do it soon. The wreck last week really set him back, as it would have been huge for him to pick up more points with a decent finish. With no dark horses that are worth putting a play on, it’s not a bad idea to put a unit or two on a guy that is as desperate for a win as any.
Watkins Glen Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com
Detailed driver notes and statistics to help set your fantasy racing lineup for the Cheez-It 355 at Watkins Glen International.
Who's HOT at Watkins Glen
• Tony Stewart leads all drivers with five wins.
• Kyle Busch has finished in the top 10 in nine of his last 10 starts, including two wins.
• Defending race winner Joey Logano has finished seventh or better in his last three starts.
• Kevin Harvick has posted a 5.0 average finish in his two track starts with Stewart-Haas Racing.
• Carl Edwards and Kurt Busch each have a 5.7 average finish in the last three races.
• AJ Allmendinger has finished in the top 10 in four of his last five starts, including a win in 2014.
• Brad Keselowski has finished seventh or better in four of his last five starts, including three runner-up finishes.
Who to Keep an Eye On at Watkins Glen
• Jeff Gordon, who will be back in the No. 88 Chevrolet this weekend, has four wins at Watkins Glen, but has finished 21st or worse in his last four starts.
• Ryan Blaney, Clint Bowyer, Chris Buescher, Austin Dillon, Chase Elliott, Michael McDowell, Jamie McMurray, Casey Mears, Brian Scott, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Martin Truex Jr. participated in last week's organizational test at Watkins Glen (Allmendinger, Kurt Busch, Kyle Busch and Keselowski were also at the test).
• Trevor Bayne and Kasey Kahne participated in the Goodyear tire test at Watkins Glen in May (Harvick, Edwards and Logano were also at the test).
• Kyle Larson has an 8.0 average finish in two starts at Watkins Glen.
• Denny Hamlin finished second at Sonoma for his first top 10 in his last 13 road course starts.
• Matt Kenseth has finished in the top 10 in his last two starts at Watkins Glen.
• Greg Biffle is tied for the fifth-best average finish (11.0) in the last four races at Watkins Glen. He also overcame a flat tire and front brake duct damage to finish 14th last season.
• Jimmie Johnson has finished in the top 10 in four of his last five starts at Watkins Glen.
MRN.com Staff Picks
Jeff Wackerlin: Brad Keselowski
Pete Pistone: Kyle Busch
Robbie Mays: Brad Keselowski
John Singler: Kyle Busch
Driver Notes - Ordered by Top 20 in Average Finish in the Last Five Races at Watkins Glen
Kyle Larson has an 8.0 average finish in two starts at Watkins Glen, finishing fourth in 2014. Larson has finished sixth or better in the last two races of the season and has a 14.2 average finish in five career starts at road courses (Watkins Glen and Sonoma).
Carl Edwards is one of three drivers that have finished in the top 10 in the last three races at Watkins Glen. Edwards, who participated in the Goodyear Tire test at The Glen, won the pole at Sonoma earlier this season and has two consecutive top 10s at road courses with Joe Gibbs Racing.
Kevin Harvick has finished seventh and third, respectively, in his two starts at Watkins Glen with Stewart-Haas Racing. Harvick, who has finished seventh or better in his last four starts at Road Courses, will return in the same car (chassis No. 873) that he led 29 laps with last season at The Glen before running out of fuel on the last lap. Harvick, who participated in the Goodyear Tire test at The Glen, does have one win at Watkins Glen, coming in 2006 with Richard Childress Racing.
Brad Keselowski has finished in the top 10 in four his last five starts at Watkins Glen, including three runner-up finishes from 2011 to 2013. He was involved in a testing crash at The Glen last week due to a brake failure, but was fastest prior to the incident.
Joey Logano scored the win in this event last season for his third consecutive top 10 at Watkins Glen. Logano finished third at Sonoma in June for his fourth consecutive finish of sixth or better at road courses. He participated in the Goodyear Tire test at The Glen earlier this season.
Kyle Busch has finished ninth or better in nine of his last 10 starts at Watkins Glen, including two wins. Busch also won at Sonoma in 2015 and has finished seventh or better in the last three races at road courses.
AJ Allmendinger has finished in the top 10 in two of his three starts at Watkins Glen with JTG Daugherty Racing, including a win in 2014. He was one of the drivers that tested at the 2.45-mile track last week.
Clint Bowyer finished 40th in his first road course start with HScott Motorsports in June at Sonoma after an electrical issue. Bowyer, who has finished sixth or better in three of his last four starts at The Glen, only has one top 10 this season at a non-restrictor-plate track - eighth at Bristol. He participated in last week's test at The Glen.
Martin Truex Jr. started second and led five laps last season, but a cut left-front tire relegated him back in the pack and to a 25th-place finish. Truex has made five road course starts with Furniture Row Racing and finished fifth at Sonoma in June to lower his average finish to 20.0 in that span. Truex, who tested at The Glen last week, does have one road course win - Sonoma in 2013 with Michael Waltrip Racing.
Matt Kenseth has finished in the top 10 in his last two starts at Watkins Glen with Joe Gibbs Racing. Kenseth has a 17.3 average finish in his last 10 starts at road courses with his only top 10s (three) all coming at The Glen.
Jimmie Johnson has finished in the top 10 in four of his last five starts at Watkins Glen, which remains one of four tracks on the schedule he's yet to win at. Johnson won at Sonoma in 2010.
Greg Biffle is tied for the fifth-best average finish (11.0) in the last four races at Watkins Glen. He finished in the top 10 in two of those races and has five top 10s in the last 10 road course events. Last year at The Glen, Biffle overcame a flat tire and front brake duct damage to finish 14th.
Casey Mears scored his best finish in five starts at Watkins Glen with Germain Racing in 2013, in 12th. Mears' last top 10 at a road course came in 2008 at Sonoma with Hendrick Motorsports. He did participate in the test at The Glen last week.
Kurt Busch has finished in the top 10 in his last three starts at Watkins Glen, including two consecutive top fives with Stewart-Haas Racing. Busch finished 10th at Sonoma in June for his fourth consecutive top 10 at a road course. This weekend, Busch, who tested at The Glen last week, will return in the same car (chassis No. 942) that he's raced in the last three road course races.
Danica Patrick is coming off her best finish in three starts at Watkins Glen, in 17th. She's made seven overall Sprint Cup starts at road courses with a 21.1 average finish.
Ryan Newman recorded his last of three top 10s at Watkins Glen in 2006 with Team Penske. Newman finished 15th last season in his second track start with Richard Childress Racing. This weekend, Newman will return in the same car (chassis No. 477) that he finished eighth with at Sonoma in June.
Paul Menard has yet to finish in the top 10 in 12 starts at Watkins Glen. Menard's lone top 10 on road courses in the Sprint Cup Series came at Sonoma in 2014, in fifth.
Trevor Bayne finished 22nd in his first Sprint Cup start at Watkins Glen last season. Bayne's overall road course average finish is 23.3 in three starts in Cup.
Aric Almirola finished 16th last season for his best finish in five starts at Watkins Glen. Almirola has yet to score a top 10 in 11 overall starts at road courses.
David Ragan has yet to finish in the top 10 in nine starts at Watkins Glen. His best finish (19th) came in 2014 while driving for Front Row Motorsports. Ragan finished 32nd at Sonoma in June in his first road course start with BK Racing.