Brickyard 400 Betting News and Notes

Brickyard - Driver Tale of the Tape

Clint Bowyer (No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)

· Two top fives, three top 10s
· Average finish of 13.545, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 15.688, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 82.4, 10th-best
· 12 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 169.269, 12th-fastest
· 938 Laps in the Top 15 (53.2), 10th-most
· 223 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· Two wins, five top fives, ten top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 9.000, second-best
· Average Running Position of 10.814, second-best
· Driver Rating of 105.5, second-best
· 148 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 170.319, second-fastest
· 1509 Laps in the Top 15 (78.4), third-most
· 356 Quality Passes, series-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr (No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· One top five, five top 10s
· Average finish of 19.545, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 17.703, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 82.1, 11th-best
· 46 Fastest Laps Run, series-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 169.630, 10th-fastest
· 861 Laps in the Top 15 (48.8 ), 11th-most
· 262 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· Four top fives, six top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 13.364, seventh-best
· Average Running Position of 14.482, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 92.4, seventh-best
· 58 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 170.035, fourth-fastest
· 1138 Laps in the Top 15 (64.5), seventh-most
· 293 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)

· One win, five top fives, ten top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 11.167, third-best
· Average Running Position of 12.308, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 97.1, fifth-best
· 67 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 169.751, eighth-fastest
· 1361 Laps in the Top 15 (70.7), fifth-most
· 327 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· Four wins, six top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 13.000, sixth-best
· Average Running Position of 11.221, third-best
· Driver Rating of 105.7, series-best
· 182 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 170.488, series-fastest
· 1405 Laps in the Top 15 (73.0), fourth-most
· 314 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· Three top fives, six top 10s
· Average finish of 15.500, 10th-best
· Average Running Position of 12.920, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 95.0, sixth-best
· 104 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 169.965, fifth-fastest
· 1316 Laps in the Top 15 (68.4), sixth-most
· 331 Quality Passes, third-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· Eight top fives, 11 top 10s
· Average finish of 11.250, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 11.599, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 98.3, fourth-best
· 29 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 169.856, sixth-fastest
· 1516 Laps in the Top 15 (78.8 ), second-most
· 355 Quality Passes, second-most

Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Team Penske Ford Fusion)

· Three top 10s
· Average finish of 13.857, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 14.436, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 88.3, ninth-best
· 44 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 169.835, seventh-fastest
· 655 Laps in the Top 15 (58.3), ninth-most
· 178 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Kyle Larson (No. 42 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet SS)

· One top five, three top 10s
· Average finish of 7.000, series-best
· Average Running Position of 7.971, series-best
· Driver Rating of 104.8, third-best
· 5 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 170.290, third-fastest
· 478 Laps in the Top 15 (98.8 ), series-most
· 106 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Joey Logano (No. 22 Team Penske Ford Fusion)

· Two top fives, five top 10s
· Average finish of 12.625, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.061, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 90.1, eighth-best
· 22 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 169.669, ninth-fastest
· 794 Laps in the Top 15 (61.8 ), eighth-most
· 191 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Ryan Newman (No. 31 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet SS)

· One win, two top fives, three top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 17.167, 11th-best
· Average Running Position of 18.975, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 78.3, 13th-best
· 28 Fastest Laps Run, third-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 169.021, 13th-fastest
· 840 Laps in the Top 15 (43.7), 13th-most
· 188 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Martin Truex Jr (No. 78 Furniture Row Racing Toyota Camry)

· One top five, three top 10s
· Average finish of 18.333, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 17.265, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 79.2, 12th-best
· 20 Fastest Laps Run, second-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 169.377, 11th-fastest
· 901 Laps in the Top 15 (46.8 ), 12th-most
· 240 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Brickyard 400 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

It took 19 races this season for Joe Gibbs Racing to finally get a win with Denny Hamlin taking the checkers last week at New Hampshire and it's quite possible they're about to go on a major run in the second-half of the season after finally getting their new Camry design figured out. Next up for them to conquer is the auto racing cathedral at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, a place they've won at the past two years behind Kyle Busch.

“I think the biggest thing about the Brickyard is the prestige, the track’s history and quality of racing – all the historic finishes it’s had over the years, whether it has been IndyCar or NASCAR," Busch said earlier this week.

"To me, it’s a special place to go to because of its heritage of being Indianapolis. Every guy in NASCAR and, especially every guy in IndyCar, they want to win there. Getting our Skittles Camry to victory lane there three years in a row would be special for a lot of reasons.”

Three Brickyard 400 wins in a row would be the first time ever at Indy. It hasn't even been done in the Indy 500 which has had five times more starts in its history there than NASCAR. Busch's wins the past two seasons on the famed bricks also gave Toyota its first wins there as well.

What has me liking Busch more this week besides what he's done so well there the past two seasons on the flat-2.5 mile layout is what he did at Pocono Raceway last month.

The reason Pocono is used as a comparison because it's the only track somewhat similar to Indy. Pocono only has three turns and each of them have varied banking, but its long straightaway is similar to the frontstretch and backstretch of Indy. The tight Turn 3 at Pocono is also similar to all four of the turns at Indy so crew chiefs can get a nice feel how the car balance should be based on what they saw last month.

In that Pocono race, Ryan Blaney ended up winning his first career race and he did it by an amazing restart with 10 laps to go. Those would be the only 10 laps he'd lead all day and he'd hold off a tenacious Kevin Harvick for the win. Kyle Busch would lead 100 of the 160 laps that day and was leading with 10 laps to go, but was a sitting duck with older tires.

Another angle to consider Busch over some of the upstarts like Ryan Larson, Martin Truex Jr. and Blaney is that this has been a race won mostly by champions. In 23 Brickyard 400's, 19 of them have been won by former Cup champions. And nine times the winner of the Brickyard 400 won the championship in the same year. Busch was the last to do it in 2015.

That's a pretty slanted angle. Jeff Gordon is the only driver to have raced in all 23 Brickyard 400's, but he's fully retired now and holds many of the tracks records, including five wins. He won the inaugural race in 1994 which kind catapulted Gordon and NASCAR to a new level.

“It’s going to be interesting," Busch said. "I look forward to Indianapolis every year now. We’ve certainly picked up on something the last couple of years that has made us really good there and we’ve been fast over the years, but it’s just the last two years have been really good for us. I certainly hope we can take the same powerful equipment and car and everything and have a good shot at being able to win that race."

Another champ, seven-timer Jimmie Johnson is second behind Gordon with four Brickyard wins, the last coming in 2012. Hendrick Motorsports has won there a record nine times. Chase Elliott, whose father Bill won there in 2002, is driving the No. 24 now and this could be a good spot for him to break through for his first win.

A driver to take a look at who may fetch more than 50/1 odds is Kurt Busch who finished fourth at Pocono. Should he win, he be the fourth driver to win the Daytona 500 and Brickyard 400 in the same season.

Kyle Larson is going to be tough as ever and even before busting loose as an elite driver this season he was loving Indy. his seventh-place average finish is the best among all drivers. He finished seventh as a rookie in 2014, ninth in 2015 and fifth last season.

Matt Kenseth has always loved Indy. He's been runner-up three times, including last season. He's been seventh or better in the past four seasons with Joe Gibbs.

Denny Hamlin loves flat tracks and they don't much flatter than Indy. He was fourth last season and has finished in the top-five the past three seasons there. Two wins in a row for Hamlin?

How about two straight years of Joe Gibbs cars finishing 1-2 in the Brickyard 400?

Top-5 Finish Prediction

1) #18 Kyle Busch (6/1)
2) #11 Denny Hamlin (10/1)
3) #78 Martin Truex Jr. (6/1)
4) #48 Jimmie Johnson (10/1)
5) #42 Kyle Larson (7/1)

Brickyard 400 NASCAR Betting Predictions
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Getting a chance to kiss the bricks and get covered in milk is every driver’s fantasy when it comes to Indianapolis Motor Speedway and the Brickyard 400. One lucky guy will get the opportunity to do that on Sunday with this year’s version of the race. This time, it will be the Brantley Gilbert Big Machine Brickyard 400, as naming rights belong to the country artist and his record label. It’s a far cry from the Crown Royal Presents Your Hero’s Name Here 400 at the Brickyard like it has been the last two years, but his music isn’t bad.

Anyway, this is the 20th race of the regular season, so we have only six races left to jockey for position in the standings after this weekend. Nine races will follow as part of the 2017 Cup Championship Playoffs and we will crown a winner at Homestead-Miami Speedway just four short months from the day that this Brickyard preview is being written.

Through 19 races and a couple of duels for points, things look like this. Martin Truex Jr. is atop the board with 758 points. Kyle Larson is second with 720 points, though he lost out on 35 points for failing a post-race inspection at Kentucky. Kyle Busch is third with 650 points. Kevin Harvick is fourth with 639 points, but he, too, lost out on some points from an inspection violation. Denny Hamlin, last week’s winner at Loudon, is now fifth with 589 points.

Chase Elliott is sixth with 587 points, followed by Jamie McMurray with 572 points, Brad Keselowski with 564 points, Jimmie Johnson with 552 points, and Clint Bowyer with 526 points to round out the top 10. The top 16 make it into the playoffs, though drivers with a victory take precedence. Those with a win that aren’t in the top 10 are Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Ryan Newman, and Austin Dillon.

Indianapolis Motor Speedway is obviously best known as the site of the Indianapolis 500, but the Brickyard 400 is a special race in its own right. This is one of the fastest races of the year because the 2.5-mile track is unrestricted, so drivers can really open it up on the straightaways. This race is mostly about the guy with the most power under the hood and the fewest mechanical problems.

Odds came out on Wednesday afternoon at 5Dimes Sportsbook. There aren’t a whole lot of surprises on the board. Martin Truex Jr. is the favorite at +325. Truex has never won this race, but his Furniture Row Racing team is having a huge season as a Joe Gibbs Racing satellite squad. In all honesty, Truex hasn’t run that well at Indianapolis. He was eighth last season and fourth the season before. That is it for him in terms of top-five finishes at the track. Truex does have three wins this season, but has struggled on bigger tracks like Daytona and Talladega. Of course, the restrictor plate plays a role there, so it isn’t the best comparison, but this is not a track with a good record of success for Truex.

Kyle Busch has not won a race yet this season. He is the two-time reigning champion of this one, so it does seem like things may line up pretty nicely for him this week. Both race wins required NASCAR’s version of overtime, so maybe Busch can grab this one without all the added drama. When not winning here, Busch has finished second twice and hasn’t finished outside the top 10 since 2009. The price tag at +375 isn’t ideal, but Busch has a phenomenal track record here and has also won three of the five Xfinity Series races here, so he’s probably the best bet on the board for this week.

Kyle Larson has had a great car and he has backed it up by being a great driver this year. Larson comes in at +650 for this weekend’s race. Without the 35 points he was docked at Kentucky, he’d be just three points off the pace being set by Truex. Larson is having the Kevin Harvick season, in that he’s picked up two wins, but he’s also finished second seven times. It’s eerily similar to what Harvick did last season. Larson has been a factor at Indianapolis in his career. He’s finished fifth, eighth, and seventh in three career Cup Series starts.

Kevin Harvick and Jimmie Johnson share odds of +850. Harvick’s lone win came at Sonoma, which was definitely a departure from what you would expect. Harvick’s lone win at Indianapolis came way back in 2003, so it has been quite a while for him. He is working on a string of three straight top-10 finishes, including a third-place finish with the most laps led two years ago. He finished sixth last year. Johnson has four wins here and is the active leader in wins at IMS. This year has been really weird for Johnson, with three wins and a bunch of lackluster finishes otherwise. Johnson has three top-five finishes and he’s won them all. He only has four other top-10 finishes, with none higher than ninth. It’s a tough sell to back him this week.

Those looking for value picks have some options on the board. Brad Keselowski is +1650 this week. He’s had a variety of problems, but he’s also had a ton of speed. Team Penske has run pretty well overall this season. He hasn’t won this race, but he does have two wins on the season. He had a string of five top-five finishes in a row earlier this year, so that potential is always there.

If you really want to gamble, Ryan Newman at +11500 has some value. He won this race in 2013 and has the fastest average speed in this event dating all the way back to 2000. Newman has a win this season and has run pretty well on the bigger tracks.

Indianapolis Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Pete Pistone
Racingone.com

MRN's Pete Pistone gets you ready for Sunday's Brantley Gilbert Big Machine Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway with a look at some of the drivers in the field for the 20th Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series race of the season.

Who’s HOT at Indianapolis

Kyle Busch: Has won the last two Indy races and looks to become the first driver to win three straight on Sunday. He’s been stellar at Indianapolis in recent years with finishes of first or second in four of the last five visits.

Kevin Harvick: Three consecutive top-10 runs for Harvick, including sixth last season. With both Richard Childress and Stewart-Haas Racing, he’s been solid at Indy and has a 9.8 average finish in the last five starts at the track.

Martin Truex Jr.: Can’t be counted out at any track on the schedule including Indianapolis, where he’s been alright in the last couple starts with a pair of top 10s.

Matt Kenseth: Four straight top-10 finishes for Kenseth in his last four visits to Indianapolis. He’s been in the top five in three of his last five starts there, running second to teammate Busch in 2016.

Joey Logano: The Team Penske driver was second two years ago and just one position short of giving Roger Penske his first Brickyard trophy to go with his many Indy 500 wins. Logano rides a string of four straight top-10 efforts into Sunday’s race.

Who's NOT

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: The Roush Fenway Racing driver was 12th last year at Indianapolis, which was his best career outing at "The Brickyard." But he traditionally struggles at the track.

Jamie McMurray: Despite team co-owner Chip Ganassi’s history of success at Indianapolis, McMurray hasn’t enjoyed similar results in recent years. His last five starts have generated a bulky 18.4 average finish.

Paul Menard: He’s a former Indy winner, back in 2011, but Menard’s overall record there isn’t stellar and his season is a disappointment to date. He takes an average finish of 16.8 into Sunday’s race.

AJ Allmendinger: Not much to get excited about for Allmendinger’s performances in a stock car at Indianapolis, where he finished 38th last year. He has one top 10 in seven starts but an average finish of only 25.3.

Kurt Busch: He was eighth two years ago, but that was a high-water mark for Busch in recent Indy outings. He's only had one other top-10 run dating back to 2006. He finished 16th in 2016.

Who to Keep an Eye On at Indianapolis

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Makes his final Indy start and look for another of the "Dale Mary" like the team threw last week at New Hampshire trying to play strategy. Missed last year’s race due to his concussion but did have three top 10’s in his previous four Brickyard starts.

Kasey Kahne: He’s on the Hendrick hot seat and desperately needs a win to resurrect a season that's been another disappointment. Kahne has shown some flashes of Indy success in recent outings, including third place in 2013.

Jimmie Johnson: First, second and third in three of the last five Indianapolis appearances. Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus can never be counted out when the Brickyard rolls around.

Denny Hamlin: Fresh off his New Hampshire win, Hamlin heads to Indy with confidence and momentum. He looks to continue a stretch that's seen three straight Indy top-five runs.

Kyle Larson: He’s made three Indianapolis starts and finished in the top 10 every time. Last year, Larson wheeled his Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet to a fifth-place finish.

MRN.com Staff Picks

Pete Pistone: Kyle Busch
Jeff Wackerlin: Kyle Busch
Robbie Mays: Kyle Busch
Tyler Burnett: Kyle Busch
John Singler: Jamie McMurray

Brickyard 400 - Drivers to Bet
By: StatFox.com

The top drivers in the world will compete in the Brantley Gilbert Big Machine Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on Sunday. This race follows a Monster Energy Cup Series event that saw Denny Hamlin come away with the victory. He led for 54 laps in the Overton’s 301, and Martin Truex Jr. led for 137. Truex Jr. did, however, only come in third. The drivers must now turn around and look to this race, which is one that Kyle Busch will be looking forward to. Busch is the defending champion in Speedway, and it was actually his second straight victory in this one. He’ll be looking to become the only driver to ever win this race three times in a row this weekend. Jimmie Johnson, meanwhile, is the active driver with the most career wins in this one. He has won this race four times in his career, and he’ll certainly be a factor here. If he were to win on Sunday then he would tie Jeff Gordon for most wins ever in the Brickyard 400. Due to the performances of both of those guys, it should come as no surprise as Hendrick Motorsports has the most ever wins in this race. Chevrolet, meanwhile, has easily been the best car here. Chevy’s have been the make used by 16 winners in the Brickyard 400, but Busch has won each of the past two in a Toyota. With that out of the way, let’s now look at who might win on Sunday:

Kyle Busch (7-to-2) - As previously mentioned, Kyle Busch has won this race twice in a row. While it’s crazy to imagine somebody winning the same race three times in a row, you have to factor in how well Busch handles this track. He clearly feels extremely comfortable in this race, and he is worthy of putting a unit or two on due to his track record here. And it’s not like Busch hasn’t been good recently. He has finished inside the top-10 in four of the past six races and will just be trying to break through for his first win of the year now.

Jimmie Johnson (15-to-2) - Jimmie Johnson has been in a bit of a funk lately, as he has not cracked the top-five in any of the past six races heading into this one. That’s not like Johnson, who already has three wins on the season. Look for him to get back on track here, as this is one of his favorite places to race. As mentioned earlier, Johnson has won the Brickyard 400 four times in his career. And he is definitely going to be fueled by the opportunity to tie Jeff Gordon with wins in this event. At 15-to-2, he’s a great value as well.

Denny Hamlin (12-to-1) - Denny Hamlin is going to be the most confident driver on the track on Sunday, as Hamlin came away with a big win at the Overton’s 301 a week ago. Hamlin also happened to rack up three fourth-place finishes in the previous four races heading into that one. He is on an absolute tear right now, and he has also had some success in Speedway. Hamlin has finished inside the top three in each of the past three Brickyard 400s. He’s a tremendous value to break through and win on Sunday at 12-to-1.

Daniel Suarez (80-to-1) - Suarez is enjoying a very successful rookie year in the Monster Energy Cup Series, and it’s only a matter of time before he wins his first race. Suarez is coming off of a great showing at the Overton’s 301 last week, as he finished in sixth in that one. It was his fifth top-10 finish of the year, and that is why it is truly so surprising that he is going off at 80-to-1 here. Take a shot on him at these odds while you can.