Bank of America 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
And now we're down to just 12 drivers to win the Sprint Cup. The Round of 12 three-race playoff starts Saturday night at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Eleven of the 12 drivers that advanced, I think most expected. But with Kyle Larson finishing 25th at Dover and Austin Dillon finishing eighth, it gives us all that Cinderella story to follow.
“I’m proud to be going on to the final 12 and having race cars that are capable of moving on," said Austin Dillon following Sunday's Dover race. "I have three really solid tracks coming up (Charlotte, Kansas and Talladega), and I am going to drive the wheels off of it and have fun. It’s time to knock some more of these guys out, because we’ve got this opportunity, and I want to say that we’re going to be the underdog in this next round, so let’s go do it.”
Yes, he is the underdog, or the longest shot of all to win the championship. After Kurt Busch at 25/1 odds, Dillon comes in at 60/1. The favorite is still Kevin Harvick at 4/1 and Martin Truex Jr. at 9/2.
One confidence angle Dillon can look at is RCR teammate Ryan Newman making it all the way to the Championship Round in 2014 and only a few laps from winning the title that Harvick eventually captured by winning the race. Just like Newman then, Dillon hasn't won a race all season. But at this stage, it's all about finishing well and being consistent and Dillon earned it.
Truex Jr.'s win at Dover gave him four for the season which ties Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch for the most in the series. It was his third win in the past five races which make him the driver to beat Saturday night at Charlotte.
Even if Truex hadn't won at Darlington, Chicago and Dover the past five races, he'd still be the favorite just because of what he did May 29 in the first Charlotte race. It was the most dominant win in the history of Charlotte's storied grounds. In NASCAR's longest race of the year -- the Coca-Cola 600 -- Truex led 392 of the 400 laps on the 1.5-mile high-banked tri-oval.
Only three other drivers led among the eight laps that Truex didn't. That's almost four hours of racing where Truex was out front. That's what he does better than anyone and he's red hot right now. Since winning at Darlington five races ago he's led in the last five races totaling 521 laps. In the seven races on 1.5-mile tracks, he's led 817 laps and overall he's led 1,94 laps. All of those achievements are tops in the series.
So when looking at his chances for Saturday, there aren't really any reasons to suggest he won't win. Sure, anything can happen. But each of three wins in the last five races have attributes that can be applied to Charlotte. Darlington's high banking on the 1.3-mile layout can be used somewhat, so can Chicago's 1.5-mile layout and so can Dover's high banks. Oh yeah, and did I mention he led 392 freaking laps the last time at Charlotte?
While I may paint a picture of Truex being invincible this week, it's no fun betting the 4-to-1 favorite to win a race among 39 other drivers, with 12 of them having a legitimate shot to win. His un-official Gibbs teammates is where you want to look first as his top competition beginning with Kyle Busch who surprisingly has never won at Charlotte in 25 Cup starts. Matt Kenseth has two wins, Carl Edwards has won once and Denny Hamlin has a strong 12.3 average finish, but no wins in 22 starts. Busch has wins on the 1.5-mile tracks at Texas and Kansas this season.
Kevin Harvick has the best look among Chevrolet drivers as he's finished ninth or better in 11 of his last 12 Charlotte starts, which includes three wins. He's been runner-up in his last two starts at Charlotte. Since 2014, if we look at all the results at 1.5-mile track and throw Darlington in as well, Harvick has averaged an 8.9 finish with four wins and led a series high 2,074 laps.
Jimmie Johnson was one of the three drivers other than Truex to lead at Charlotte in May. He finished third. He has series-leading seven Charlotte wins, the last coming in 2014. The reason to suggest he'll be a strong contender Sunday is because of what a recent Chicago test session did for his team in the Sept. 18 race at Chicagoland Speedway. Truex won that race and Johnson settled for 12th, but he also led a race-high 118 laps. He had the best car despite the results. Johnson's two wins on the season came within the first five races, but they were at Atlanta and Fontana which applicable somewhat this week, even though it was so long ago.
Brad Keselowski has two wins on 1.5-mile tracks (Las Vegas & Kentucky) and his only Charlotte win came during the 2013 Chase. He finished fifth in May's Coca-Cola 600.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #4 Kevin Harvick (6/1)
2) #78 Martin Truex Jr. (4/1)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (8/1)
4) #18 Kyle Busch (7/1)
5) #2 Brad Keselowski (10/1)
NASCAR Betting Odds
By Greg Engle
CupScene.com
The NASCAR Sprint Cup series heads back this week to the home track of many, Charlotte Motor Speedway. The 1.5-mile track is a popular venue and a win here, usually in front of employees and family who travel the circuit regularly, means a bit more.
“It’s always a marquee event, I believe, no matter if it’s the spring or the fall, Charlotte is the only night race in the Chase,” said Kurt Busch. “A lot of bragging rights because all the race shops are here in Charlotte. It’s just one of those special tracks that is one of the toughest ones to win on and we race there so often. The All-Star race and guys that aren’t in the All-Star race, race in the Showdown, we have the 600-miler, the 500-miler, a lot of laps at Charlotte, kind of makes you feel like the old school days that this is your home track and you want to defend it.”
Saturday night ‘s race is also the first in the Round of 12 in the 2016 edition of the Chase for the Sprint Cup. A win in any of the next three races secures a spot in the next round, so getting a win in the first race of this round can relieve a lot of pressure over the course of the next two.
Here are my favorites for Sunday’s 30th race of the year for your betting or fantasy racing leagues. Driver Ratings are compiled from 2005-2016 races (22 total) among active drivers at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Driver Rating is a number based on a formula developed by NASCAR which combines “loop data” elements such as average running position, average speed under green, number of fastest laps, and other stats. There is a maximum of 150 points that a driver can earn for each race. The odds are current as of Wednesday.
Martin Truex Jr. (4-1). Truex actually has a pretty low driver rating here, 84.2, 12th best. However, here in May he led all but eight laps staging a dominate performance in route to his first career Charlotte victory. He won last week at Dover, and is bringing the same car he won with here in May. Truex is the safest bet you’ll have in quite some time.
Kyle Busch (7-1). Busch finished second, although a distant one, to Truex last week at Dover. Somewhat astonishingly, Busch has never won a points-paying Cup race here. However he does have 10 top five finishes and has come close. He has the second highest driver rating in the field, 104.6 and with the way he has been running lately, it would be no surprise to see Kyle get a win Saturday night.
Jimmie Johnson (6-1). Johnson leads all active drivers at Charlotte with 10 wins and has the highest driver rating in the field, 109.6. His last win was in the fall of 2014 and he was third here in May leading five laps. He’s had a few tough weeks, but looked strong last week at Dover. If he can avoid the pit road mistakes that have plagued the team lately, Johnson could go all the way Saturday night.
Kevin Harvick (5-1). Harvick was second here in May. Overall he has three wins here the last coming in the fall of 2014. Harvick has the ninth best driver rating in the field,88.8, and has been a force to be reckoned with all season long; Saturday night shouldn’t be any different.
Denny Hamlin (8-1). Hamlin has never won a points paying Cup race here, but does have 6 top five finishes in 22 starts. He has the third highest driver, 95.6, and was fourth here in May. Like Johnson, If he can avoid the pit road errors that have lost him races this year, he could be a factor Saturday night.
OTHERS: Joey Logano (12-1) is the defending winner of this race and has the sixth highest driver rating in the field, 94.5. He has been hot and cold this season, but if he’s hot Saturday night could defend last season’s race win. Matt Kenseth (10-1) has the fourth highest driver rating in the field, 95.4, and has two wins here. He crashed out of last season’s race, and will be looking for redemption Saturday night.
Charlotte Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com
Detailed driver notes and statistics to help set your fantasy racing lineup for Saturday night's Bank of America 500 at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
Who's HOT at Charlotte
• Kevin Harvick has finished in the top 10 in the last seven races, including two wins - one coming in this event in 2014.
• Martin Truex Jr. has finished in the top five in his last three starts, including a dominating win in May.
• Brad Keselowski has posted an 8.0 average finish in his last five starts, including a win in the 2013 fall race.
• Denny Hamlin has finished in the top 10 in his last four starts.
• Matt Kenseth has finished in the top five in three of the last six races and finished seventh in May.
• Joey Logano, the defending race winner, leads all drivers with a 9.5 average finish (15 starts).
• Jimmie Johnson, who finished third in May, leads all drivers with seven wins.
• Carl Edwards has finished in the top 10 in five of the last six races.
Who to Keep an Eye On at Charlotte
• Kyle Busch has finished in the top 10 in 13 of the last 18 races at Charlotte. He is also a two-time winner at 1.5-mile tracks this season.
• Kurt Busch leads all drivers with a 6.9 average finish at 1.5-mile tracks this season.
• Austin Dillon (11.9) and Ryan Newman (13.3) each rank in the top 10 in average finish among drivers that have competed in all seven races at 1.5-mile tracks this season.
• Chase Elliott, who finished eighth at Charlotte in May, has finished in the top 10 in four of the last five races at 1.5-mile tracks.
• Ryan Blaney is coming off his third finish of sixth or better at a 1.5-mile track this season.
• Kasey Kahne (8.2) and Kyle Larson (11.6) each rank in the top 10 in average finish in the last five races of the season. Kahne has finished in the top 10 in four of them, including a seventh-place finish at Chicagoland.
MRN.com Staff Picks
Jeff Wackerlin: Martin Truex Jr.
Pete Pistone: Martin Truex Jr.
Robbie Mays: Martin Truex Jr.
John Singler: Matt Kenseth
Driver Notes - Ordered by Average Finish in the Last Five Races at Charlotte
Kevin Harvick is a three-time Charlotte winner with two of them coming in the Coca-Cola 600 (2011 and 2013). He's finished in the top 10 in his five Charlotte starts with Stewart-Haas Racing, including a win in this event in 2014. Harvick, who has finished second in his last two Charlotte starts, ranks fourth among all drivers in average finish (8.0) in the seven races at 1.5-mile tracks this season. For the Bank of America 500, Harvick will be driving a new chassis (No. 929).
Carl Edwards finished 18th in May, snapping a streak of five consecutive top 10s at Charlotte. He has an 8.3 average finish in three track starts with Joe Gibbs Racing, including a win in the 2015 Coca-Cola 600. This season, Edwards ranks ninth among all drivers in average finish (10.9) in the seven races at 1.5-mile tracks.
Joey Logano dominated this event last year, leading 227 laps en route to his first win at Charlotte. He finished ninth in May for his fourth top 10 in seven track starts with Team Penske. This season, Logano has posted three top-three finishes in the seven races at 1.5-mile tracks. He started the Chase with a second-place finish at Chicago.
Brad Keselowski has finished in the top 10 in five of his last six starts at Charlotte, including a win in the 2013 fall race. This season, Keselowski ranks second among all drivers in average finish (7.0) in the seven races at 1.5-mile tracks and has wins at Las Vegas and Kentucky.
Denny Hamlin has finished in the top 10 in his last four Charlotte starts. This season, Hamlin has only two top 10s in the seven races at 1.5-mile tracks with them coming in the last three races, Charlotte and Chicago.
Martin Truex Jr. dominated the May race, leading 392 of 400 laps en route to his first win at Charlotte. The win was his third consecutive top five at the track. This season, Truex has posted two wins, an average finish of 7.1 and tops the series with 817 laps led in the seven races at 1.5-mile tracks.
Ryan Newman finished 10th in May and has a 10.6 average finish in five Charlotte starts with Richard Childress Racing. His finish in May is one of three top 10s in the seven races at 1.5-mile tracks this season.
Jamie McMurray has posted an 11.6 average finish in his last five Charlotte starts, which includes two top fives in 2014. McMurray's lone top 10 in the seven races at 1.5-mile tracks this season came at Kentucky, seventh.
Austin Dillon finished seventh last year in this event for his first top 10 in five Charlotte starts. This season, Dillon has the eighth-best average finish (11.9) among all drivers that have races in all of the events at 1.5-mile tracks.
Chase Elliott finished eighth in May to lower his average finish to 13.0 in two Charlotte starts. This season, Elliott has finished in the top 10 in five of the seven races at 1.5-mile tracks, including a third-place run at Chicagoland to start the Chase.
Kurt Busch as finished in the top 10 in his last three Charlotte starts with Stewart-Haas Racing. This season, Busch leads all drivers with a 6.9 average finish in the seven races at 1.5-mile tracks.
Matt Kenseth finished seventh in May to lower his average finish to 13.3 in seven Charlotte starts with Joe Gibbs Racing. Kenseth is one of two drivers (other Brad Keselowski) that has finished in the top 10 in the last four races at 1.5-mile tracks.
Greg Biffle scored his only top 10 (second) in the last seven Charlotte races in the 2015 Coca-Cola 600 on fuel mileage. Biffle's best two finishes at 1.5-mile tracks this season came at Charlotte (11th) and Kentucky (sixth).
Kyle Busch remains winless at Charlotte but has finished on the top 10 in 13 of his last 18 starts. Busch's only finish outside the top 12 at a 1.5-mile track this season came at Charlotte when a crash relegated him to a 33rd-place finish. Busch finished eighth at the last 1.5-mile track at Chicagoland and scored wins earlier at Texas and Kansas.
Kyle Larson recorded his only top 10 in six Charlotte starts in this event in 2014. This season, Larson has yet to finish in the top 10 or lead a lap in the seven races at a 1.5-mile track. His best finish in those races was 13th at Charlotte in May.
Aric Almirola scored his only top 10 in nine Charlotte starts last year in this seventh, finishing 10th. This season, Almirola has a 22.7 average finish at 1.5-mile tracks with a best finish of 15th in the second race of the season at Atlanta.
AJ Allmendinger has yet to finish in the top 10 in five Charlotte starts with JTG Daugherty Racing. Allmendinger's lone top 10 at a 1.5-mile track this season came at Kansas when he finished eighth.
Jimmie Johnson scored his last of seven Charlotte wins in the 2014 Coca-Cola 600. Johnson, who finished third in May at Charlotte, has posted one win (Atlanta) and a 10.3 average finish in the seven races at 1.5-mile tracks.
Kasey Kahne scored his last of four wins at Charlotte in the 2012 Coca-Cola 600. His last top 10 at the track with Hendrick Motorsports came in this event in 2014. Kahne finished seventh at the last race at a 1.5-mile track (Chicagoland), part of four finishes in the top 10 in the last five races of the season.
Tony Stewart recorded his last of 13 top 10s at Charlotte in the 2013 Coca-Cola 600. This season, Stewart has competed in four of the seven races at 1.5-mile tracks with his best finish (fifth), and only top 10, coming at Kentucky.