Auto Club 400 Betting News and Notes

Fontana - Driver Tale of the Tape

Clint Bowyer (No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)

· Two top fives, seven top 10s
· Average finish of 14.313, seventh-best
· Average Running Position of 13.798, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 88.3, ninth-best
· 75 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.321, ninth-fastest
· 1976 Laps in the Top 15 (54.9), 10th-most
· 627 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· Three wins, eight top fives, 12 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 10.176, third-best
· Average Running Position of 8.929, third-best
· Driver Rating of 109.0, second-best
· 255 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 172.001, third-fastest
· 3180 Laps in the Top 15 (81.6), fourth-most
· 872 Quality Passes, series-most

Kurt Busch (No. 41 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)

· One win, seven top fives, 12 top 10s; four poles
· Average finish of 12.944, sixth-best
· Average Running Position of 15.032, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 90.0, seventh-best
· 148 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.392, seventh-fastest
· 2610 Laps in the Top 15 (63.6), seventh-most
· 788 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr (No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· Five top fives, seven top 10s
· Average finish of 18.722, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 18.897, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 79.4, 12th-best
· 114 Fastest Laps Run, second-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.294, 11th-fastest
· 1824 Laps in the Top 15 (44.4), 13th-most
· 676 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Chase Elliott (No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· One top 10
· Average finish of 6.000, series-best
· Average Running Position of 7.498, second-best
· Driver Rating of 105.1, third-best
· 5 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 172.187, second-fastest
· 201 Laps in the Top 15 (98.0), series-most
· 76 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· Two top fives, five top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 18.533, 11th-best
· Average Running Position of 13.377, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 92.3, sixth-best
· 76 Fastest Laps Run, third-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.616, sixth-fastest
· 2244 Laps in the Top 15 (66.1), sixth-most
· 641 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)

· One win, six top fives, 11 top 10s
· Average finish of 12.333, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 11.398, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 99.4, fifth-best
· 221 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.885, fifth-fastest
· 3061 Laps in the Top 15 (74.6), fifth-most
· 814 Quality Passes, third-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· Six wins, 13 top fives, 16 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 6.111, second-best
· Average Running Position of 6.040, series-best
· Driver Rating of 119.7, series-best
· 528 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 172.520, series-fastest
· 3824 Laps in the Top 15 (93.2), second-most
· 870 Quality Passes, second-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· One win, four top fives, ten top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 17.667, 10th-best
· Average Running Position of 16.134, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 88.6, eighth-best
· 113 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.304, 10th-fastest
· 2424 Laps in the Top 15 (59.1), eighth-most
· 787 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· Three wins, nine top fives, 15 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 10.611, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 9.129, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 105.0, fourth-best
· 160 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.920, fourth-fastest
· 3396 Laps in the Top 15 (82.7), third-most
· 788 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Team Penske Ford Fusion)

· One win, one top five, two top 10s
· Average finish of 18.750, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 16.098, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 79.2, 13th-best
· 27 Fastest Laps Run, series-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.122, 12th-fastest
· 781 Laps in the Top 15 (48.8 ), 12th-most
· 293 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Joey Logano (No. 22 Team Penske Ford Fusion)

· Three top fives, four top 10s
· Average finish of 15.800, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 16.539, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 84.0, 10th-best
· 41 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.346, eighth-fastest
· 1034 Laps in the Top 15 (49.3), 11th-most
· 373 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Ryan Newman (No. 31 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet SS)

· Five top fives, nine top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 16.778, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 15.891, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 82.1, 11th-best
· 24 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.084, 13th-fastest
· 2264 Laps in the Top 15 (55.2), ninth-most
· 743 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Auto Club 400 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Man, does time fly. It seems like the Daytona 500 green flag just dropped, but four Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series have are already in the record books and we've had four different winners with no team appearing to have a decided edge like we've seen the past few years.

My favorite part of the early season so far is how great the racing has been with the race broken into three stages. I love the strategies each team employs with points being offered as the prize for being successful. They're all trying to be competitive right out of gate to get points and the stages are having its intended effect, which is forcing more people to watch the entire race instead of the final 50 laps.

I also got a thrill last week seeing Ryan Newman grab his first win since 2013 (Brickyard). The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook had Newman posted at 80/1 odds, but only four bettors took him there totaling just $45 bucks. It was also Richard Childress Racing's first win since Kevin Harvick won at Phoenix in 2013 before jumping ship to Stewart Haas Racing. I like all the new guys in the sport, but it's great to see some of the older guard still be relevant.

NASCAR completes its three-race West Coast swing this weekend at Fontana's wide 2-mile layout known as Auto Club Speedway, which is the sister track of Michigan International Speedway. The significance of Michigan coming into the conversation this week is because we're all still getting used to how the new low downforce package will run. Last season this same package ran on a trial basis at Kentucky and Michigan.

Although the two tracks are almost identical, the results from each of the tracks rarely resemble each other. What I have seen in recent years is that a lot of the drivers who fare well on 1.5-mile tracks also do extremely well at Fontana where speeds down the straightaway get over 200 mph.

We've seen two races already this season on 1.5s and then we also have Michigan from last season to reference so we've got a lot of data to dissect and the biggest trend among all three of those races begins with new points leader Kyle Larson, who has finished second in his last three starts.

"It’s really, really cool to be the point leader right now," Larson said after finishing second at Phoenix. "That was a goal of mine going into today (Sunday). We’ll hopefully continue to have this speed in our race cars and maybe close some of these races out.”

Oh yes, this kid has speed everywhere and the second win of his career is coming soon. His first win came in the Michigan race using his this new package. Good luck finding double-digit odds on him this week. Those days are long gone because he has just jumped into the upper-echelon of championship contenders who have the goods to win every week.

This is another part of the season I'm loving. We're seeing a new era of top flight drivers having a major impact with Larson, Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney competing well weekly. It only seems like yesterday when we we're watching Jeff Gordon, Jeff Burton and Bobby Labonte make a splash among the elite, or a few years later with Matt Kenseth, Dale Earnahrdt Jr., Jimmie Johnson and Newman making an immediate impact in their first few years. I think this just means I'm getting old.

Real quick, and keeping up with the Larson runner-up theme this season, his first start at Fontana in 2014 was a runner-up.

Last season it was Johnson who won at Fontana, which came three weeks after his win on Atlanta's 1.5-mile layout. Johnson looked good last week at Phoenix, but didn't look like his typical self on 1.5s the previous two weeks at Atlanta and Las Vegas. However, no one is better than Johnson at his home track. The El Cajon native holds track records with six wins, 13 top-fives and 980 laps led in 22 starts. His first career win happened there as a rookie in 2002 and his 6.5 average finish is his best among any track.

Needless to say, Johnson is not someone to cross of the list of candidates to win just because of Vegas and Atlanta. His incredible past history here is almost as important as what he did on 1.5s this season. You know crew chief Chad Knaus is going get things figured out like he always does and he's also got the Hendrick stable finding lots of speed led by Elliott. Kasey Kahne's car looks drastically improved from last seasons sleds he was getting. I'm not betting Johnson to win this week, but I certainly won't bet against him in match-ups no matter who he is matched up against. It's all out of respect for his Fontana past.

Jimmie knows California!

Brad Keselowski won at Atlanta after Harvick led 292 of the 325 laps and then finished fifth the following week at Las Vegas after leading 89 laps. After never finishing better than 18th in his first six Fontana starts, he grabbed a win in 2015 and was ninth last season.

Martin Truex Jr. would win the first two Vegas stages, lead the most laps (150) and capture the win. In 16 starts at Fontana he's never had a top-five, which is very surprising considering how good he's been the past two seasons.

Elliott is another young gun I really like a lot and his first win is coming soon. The No. 24 looks like best Hendrick car and has had top-fives at both Las Vegas and Atlanta this season. Last year in his first Cup start at Fontana he finished sixth.

Kyle Busch has three wins at Fontana, including two in his last three starts there. He had a win stripped from him late last week at Phoenix because of a late caution caused by, of all people, Joey Logano who Busch owes a payback to. Busch pitted with only four laps remaining and three drivers stayed out on old tires, one of which was Newman who had a buffer with two slower cars behind him holding up better cars on the restart. Busch and Logano didn't have any drama during or after the race like they did in Las Vegas, but Busch won't let it pass which gives Logano a lot to think about weekly.

I'm going with the young guns to duel it out for the win.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #42 Kyle Larson (8/1)
2) #24 Chase Elliott (10/1)
3) #18 Kyle Busch (8/1)
4) #4 Kevin Harvick (8/1)
5) #2 Brad Keselowski (8/1)

Auto Club Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com

Detailed driver notes and statistics to help set your fantasy racing lineup for Sunday's Camping World 500 at Phoenix Raceway.

Who's HOT at Auto Club

• Jimmie Johnson leads all drivers in wins (6) and laps led (980).
• Kevin Harvick has finished second and combined to lead 176 laps in the last two races.
• Kyle Busch has finished in the top three in his last four of five starts, including two wins.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. has the best average finish (6.8 ) among drivers that have raced in all of the last five races.
• Brad Keselowski (2015 winner) and Joey Logano each have finished in the top 10 in the last two races.
• Kurt Busch has finished ninth or better in four of the last five races.

Who to Keep an Eye On at Auto Club

• Kyle Larson, who finished second at Auto Club in 2014, has finished second in the last three races this season.
• Chase Elliott, who has a series leading 5.5 average running position this season, finished sixth at Auto Club last year.
• Matt Kenseth led 43 laps last year at Auto Club, but was taken out of contention by a broken axle. His teammate Denny Hamlin, who completed 61 green flag passes last weekend at Phoenix, also had a strong run going in 2016 at Auto Club before he was penalized for an uncontrolled tire on pit road.
• Ryan Newman (14.5) and Clint Bowyer (15.7) each rank in the top 10 in average finish in the last 10 races at ACS.
• Kasey Kahne, Martin Truex Jr. (Led 21 laps at ACS in 2016) and Jamie McMurray (Finished in the top 10 in two of his last three starts at ACS) each finished in the top 10 at Atlanta earlier this month - a track where tire management is also key.
• Rookies Daniel Suarez and Erik Jones, who each scored their first career top 10s at Phoenix, each have one top five in the XFINITY Series at ACS.
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr., who is coming off his eighth career top five, finished fifth at ACS last season.

MRN.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Kevin Harvick
Pete Pistone: Kyle Busch
Robbie Mays: Kyle Larson
Tyler Burnett: Chase Elliott
John Singler: Denny Hamlin

Driver Notes - Ordered by Average Finish (Top 15) in the Last Five Races at Auto Club

Chase Elliott finished sixth in his first Cup start at Auto Club last season. He led all drivers with a 3.3 average finish at 2-mile speedways last season (Auto Club and Michigan) and led a combined 67 laps in those three events. This season, Elliott leads all drivers with a 5.5 average running position in the four races so far. Elliott finished fifth at Atlanta earlier this month - another track where tire management is key.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. has the best average finish (6.8 ) among all drivers that have competed in all of the last five races at Auto Club. He's finished second twice, most recently in 2013. This weekend will mark Earnhardt's 600th Cup start.

Kyle Busch has finished third or better in four of his last five starts at Auto Club, including two wins (2013, 2014). Busch was in contention for the win last season but a blown right-front tire took him out of contention late. Last weekend, Busch led the most laps in the race at Phoenix to push his season laps led total to 132, placing him fourth among all drivers.

Kurt Busch finished 30th last year to snap a streak of four consecutive top 10s at Auto Club. The finish came after he made early contact with Dale Earnhardt Jr. in the race. Busch, who won the pole and led 65 laps en route to a third-place finish in 2015, finished seventh at Atlanta earlier this month - another track where tire management is key. This weekend, Busch will debut a new car (chassis No. 1040) in the Auto Club 400.

Paul Menard finished 15th last season to snap a streak of three consecutive top 10s at Auto Club. This season, Menard is still seeking his first top 10 on a non-restrictor plate track.

Jimmie Johnson is coming off his series leading sixth win at Auto Club. The win marked his second consecutive top 10 and 16th overall. Johnson is currently 20 laps shy of becoming the first driver to lead 1,000 laps at Auto Club. Last year, Johnson posted a 7.7 average finish in the three races at 2-mile speedways.

Ryan Newman, last week's winner, has posted a 13.0 average finish in his three Auto Club starts with Richard Childress Racing. He finished fifth in 2015 for one of his nine top 10s in 22 overall starts. Last year, Newman posted a 14.0 average finish in the three races at 2-mile speedways (Auto Club and Michigan).

Kevin Harvick has finished second in his last two starts at Auto Club. He's combined to lead 176 laps in those two events, including 142 in 2016. Last season, Harvick posted the second-best average finish (4.0) in the three races at 2-mile speedways (Auto Club and Michigan). Earlier this month, Harvick led the most laps (292) at Atlanta - another track where tire management is key. Rodney Childers is scheduled to remain as Harvick's crew chief this weekend while the team appeals its penalty following post-race inspection at Phoenix. This weekend, Harvick will return in the same chassis (No. 995) that he last led 74 laps with en route to the win at Kansas Speedway.

Matt Kenseth finished in the top 10 in his first two Auto Club starts with Joe Gibbs Racing, but has finished 31st and 19th, respectively, in his last two starts. In 2015, Kenseth led 43 laps but was taking out of contention by a broken axle. Handling issues relegated him to a 19th-place finish in 2016. Kenseth finished third at Atlanta earlier this month - another track where tire management is key.

Brad Keselowski has finished in the top 10 in his last two Auto Club starts, including a win in 2015. Last year, Keselowski has the fourth-best average finish in the three races at 2-mile tracks (Auto Club and Michigan). Keselowski won at Atlanta earlier this month - another track where tire management is key. Brian Wilson is scheduled to be Keselowski's crew chief this weekend for the suspended Paul Wolfe after post-race infractions at Phoenix.

Joey Logano has finished in the top 10 in three of his four starts with Team Penske at Auto Club. Last year, Logano led a combined 165 laps and posted one win (Michigan) in the three races at 2-mile speedways. Earlier this month, Logano finished sixth at Atlanta - another track where tire management is key.

AJ Allmendinger has finished eighth in two of his three starts at Auto Club with JTG Daugherty Racing. This season, Allmendinger is still seeking his first top-20 finish at a non-restrictor plate track.

Denny Hamlin finished third last season for his fifth top 10 in 15 starts at Auto Club. He led 56 laps in 2015, but dropped from the third position to finish 28th after he was penalized for an uncontrolled tire.

Austin Dillon has posted a 17.0 average finish in three starts at Auto Club. Last year, he won the pole and finished 24th after a loose wheel forced him to pit.

Jamie McMurray has finished in the top 10 in two of his last three starts at Auto Club. McMurray finished 10th at Atlanta earlier this month - another track where tire management is key.

Auto Club 400 - Drivers to Bet
By: StatFox.com

California will host the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series when the drivers compete in the Auto Club 400 on Sunday. Both Matt Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson will be ecstatic to be in Fontana for this one, as each of them has won the Auto Club 400 three times in their careers. That ties both of them with Jeff Gordon for the most all-time wins in this race, so the two of them will definitely have a bit of a rivalry on Sunday. Each of them will want to take over sole possession of that record, but Kyle Busch will also have some extra incentive to win. Busch has won this race twice, and he would definitely love to tie both Gordon and Kenseth this weekend. The hottest driver coming into this race would, however, be Ryan Newman. Newman started in 22nd before the Camping World 500, but he ended up winning that race. He only led for six laps, but that won’t bother him. The team that has been most successful in Fontana is Roush Fenway Racing, as they have seven wins at the Auto Club 400. The manufacturer with the most success is Ford, though. The winner of this race has driven a Ford 10 times and Chevrolet is the second most successful make here, as a Chevy driver has won eight times. With that out of the way, let’s now take a look at who could be winning this thing on Sunday:

Joey Logano (13-to-2) - Joey Logano is still searching for his first win of the year, and there’s a good chance he gets it on Sunday. Logano was driving extremely well before a disastrous result in Phoenix last week. He had finished inside the top-10 in three straight races before finishing in 31st at the Camping World 500, but he should get back on track here. Logano has done well at Auto Club Speedway recently, finishing seventh here in 2015 and fourth last year. At 13-to-2, look for Logano to really make a run in this event.

Chase Elliott (7-to-1) - Elliott has not yet won a race in his short NASCAR career, but he is clearly one of the better drivers on the Monster Energy circuit and it’s only a matter of time before he finally wins. This could be the race, as Elliott finished in sixth here a year ago and also happens to be driving well this season. Elliott came in 12th at the Camping World 500 last week, and he finished inside the top-five at each of the previous two races as well. At 7-to-1, he is worth taking a shot on because you don’t want to miss out when he finally gets to victory road.

Jimmie Johnson (15-to-2) - Jimmie Johnson won the Auto Club 400 in 2016, and he’ll now look to make it two in a row on a track he has really dominated in his career. As previously mentioned, Johnson has won this race three times in his career and will clearly be out to set himself apart from Jeff Gordon and Kyle Busch on Sunday. It’s definitely worth taking a shot on him to do so at 15-to-2, as Johnson could badly use a win right now and also happens to be coming off of his best finish of the season in Phoenix.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (100-to-1) - When looking for a dark horse to win this race, Stenhouse Jr. is one of the drivers that stands out. The 29-year-old is coming off of his best finish of the season, as he came in fourth at the Camping World 500 last week. Not only is he riding that momentum, but Stenhouse Jr. also happens to have finished in fifth at the Auto Club 400 last year. His confidence will be extremely high on Sunday, and that’s the type of guy you want to be backing.