Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 26

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 26

Dave Price

Chicago White Sox -130

Cleveland hasn't been the same team on the road where it's 11 games under .500.  It's especially struggled in Chicago where it has lost six of seven to the White Sox.  Quintana's record doesn't indicate how well he's pitched, but his 3.25 ERA does.  House has a 4.00 ERA in 12 starts and a 4.36 ERA in eight road starts.  Quintana has often been at his best versus Cleveland.  He's 3-0 with a 3.07 ERA in seven starts versus the Indians.  The White Sox are 4-1 in his five career home starts versus the Tribe.  It is also worth noting that Cleveland is 5-16 in road games versus left-handed starters this season.  The White Sox are 12-1 in home games after six consecutive losses or more since 1997.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 26

Sam Martin

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
Prediction: Atlanta Braves

Despite a fine 2.88 earned run average through nine road starts, Atlanta has only gone 2-7 in Alex Wood's road outings this season. That losing record in no way reflects how Wood has performed on the mound, however we are getting excellent line value backing the Braves pitcher here with that losing record, and we expect another strong outing from Wood tonight as he earns a rare road victory at New York.

Dillon Gee goes for the Mets, and he's was hit hard in each of his last two outings - taking the loss against Oakland and Washington while allowing four earned runs in each start. Like Wood, Gee also has a losing team start record despite a better statistical resume than expected based on records alone, however the Braves come in with momentum after winning seven of their last ten overall and catch the Mets in a losing 10-20 betting spot playing at home after back-to-back road games.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 26

Wunderdog

Tampa Bay @ Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore -105

The Tampa Bay Rays never gave up, even when they were 18 games under the .500 mark. It took a lot of energy to fight their way back into the race, but it appears they have run out of gas. The Rays are just 3-6 in their last nine games, and the offense has grown cold once again as they scored 2 or fewer runs in six of the nine games. Baltimore has separated themselves from the rest of the pack in the AL East, and they have handled Tampa Bay rather easily this season as they are 9-4 against this Rays team, winning last night 9-1. Tampa Bay is just 3-7 in Cobb's last 10 starts on regular four days of rest, and the Birds have assaulted right-handed pitching to the tune of a 19-7 record in their last 26. They have also been 20-6 at home behind Chen to a total of 7 to 8.5. make the play on Back Baltimore in this one.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 26

Bob Balfe

Nationals +105

The Phillies won this matchup last night, but this is not a good baseball team and most nights really stuggle to put up runs. Washington has been on a roll and no team in all of baseball has been as hot. These team has not lost 2 in a row for quite sometime and you just can’t help but feel bad for Hamels who is having a great season yet his team never gives him more than a couple runs of support. Take the Nationals.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 26

River City Sharps

Cardinals +119

We are going back to the well tonight with the Cards. It worked for us last night and one of the things we like about tonight’s match up is Lance Lynn (14-8 2.78) on the hill for St Louis. He has been lights out lately, 6-2 with a 1.73 ERA in nine starts since surrendering a season-high six earned runs in a 9-1 loss to the Dodgers on June 28.He also does not give up the long ball, as he has allowed just three home runs in 128 2/3 innings over his last 21 starts and his 0.40 home runs allowed per nine innings is the second lowest rate in the NL behind teammate Adam Wainwright. Important fact here is that the Pirates have been living off the long ball, nine home runs have accounted for 15 of the 23 runs over the last four games for the Bucs. The Cards are 7-3 their last 10 and the Pirates conversely are 3-7 in their last 10. We see value here again and will ride the road dog.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 26

BONES BEST BETS

ROYALS -1 -116

Two very different teams here as we will gladly take the superior at home. The Royals have produced 4 or more runs in 7 of their past 11 games. They have also won 18 straight games when scoring more than 3 runs. The Minnesota Twins on the other hand have lost six of their last 10 games and are 14 games below .500. Pitching matchup here favors the Royals huge with Duffy having a solid season with a 2.53 ERA and a 3-1 lifetime record vs these Twins. He faces Ricky Nolasco who is a horrid 5-9 on the year with a near 6 ERA at 5.96. The Twins are 1-5 in Nolascos last 6 road starts and 1-4 in Nolascos last 5 starts overall. The Royals are 10-4 in Duffys last 14 home starts and 5-1 in Duffys last 6 starts overall. The Twins are 4-12 in the last 16 meetings in Kansas City.

MARINERS ML + ANGELS ML +144

Everyone knows how bad Texas is and how solid the Mariners have been this season but Paxton for the Mariners has been fantastic with a 1.10 WHIP and a 2.20 ERA in his 6 starts this season. Martinez for the Rangers has not faired nearly as well with a 1.59 WHIP and a 5.13 ERA.

Shoemaker has been incredible lately for the Angels and we love one of the best teams in baseball in this spot. LA has an incredible 41-24 record at home whle the Marlin are just 28-34 away from Miami.

CUBS ML +175

Even with a couple wins in a row, we do not trust the Reds and certainly want to play against them at +175 even though it is Cueto on the mound. The Cubs have turned it on sweeping Baltimore and winning 6 of 8 overall. We have faith in Wood to get the job done against a Reds team that is scoring just 2 runs per game over their past 5 contests.

DODGERS ML -110

Even money with the Dodgers on the road is a profitable bet. They are 14 games above .500 on the road this year and the Dbacks are 13 games below .500 at home. The Dodgers have won 6 of their last 10 games vs the Dbacks as well. The Dodgers have won 4 of 6 games and the Dbacks have only won 2 of 9. The Dodgers have an edge on the mound too. Hernandez has a lower ERA and WHIP than Cahill does this year.

ATHLETICS @ ASTROS OVER 8 -110
ASTROS ML +109

Hammel has been a disaster since coming over to Oakland. He 1-5 overall with a 6.75 ERA and extremely high 1.88 WHIP. In his 4 road starts for the A’s, he has pitched a total of just 18 innings, has an 0-4 record, a 9.00 ERA, and a 1.94 WHIP. One of these starts was against Houston where he pitched just 4.1 innings allowing 8 earned runs on July 30th.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 26

Rocketman

Boston vs. Toronto 
Play: Toronto -134

Boston is 57-74 overall this year while Toronto comes in with a 66-65 overall record on the season.  Boston squeaked out a 4-3 win last night in 10 innings which was their first win in their last 9 games.  Boston is scoring only 3.1 runs per game their past seven games overall.  Rubby De La Rosa is 1-3 with a 4.33 ERA on the road this year.  RA Dickey is 6-3 with a 4.17 ERA at home this season.  Toronto has won 10 out of 14 meetings overall vs Boston this year.  De La Rosa is 0-2 with an 8.10 ERA in his two starts vs Toronto in his career.  We'll recommend a small play on Toronto tonight!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 26

Tony George

Tampa Bay vs. Baltimore
Play: Under 7½

A much different score expected tonight than the 9-1 finish in last night’s game between these 2 teams on Tuesday Night in Camden Yards. While I think the Side Play here is up for grabs and find little value in basically a pick em line on that (i would lean D Rays with a gun to my head), I do find good value in the Under in this game.

Alex Cobb for the D Rays has been damn near unhittable in his last 3 starts, a 0.44 ERA and a WHIP of 0.84, to go on top of a season long ERA of 3.01 and allowing just 4 runs in 41 innings of work in his last 6 starts. WOW, that is some serious work folks, and the O’s will struggle against him no doubt.

Chen for the O’s, has won 6 out of 7 decisions in 8 starts and had a stellar ERA of 2.98 over that span. I see little fireworks in Baltimore tonight and a pitcher’s duel. It would be a small lean for the D Rays tonight, but in terms of the total, I just do not see a ton of runners in scoring position tonight if both pitchers bring their A Game, and that is what I expect.

Amazing stat : Baltimore have managed just a .079 team batting average against southpaws (WOW) in their last 5 games and have batted .215 at the plate, and neither team is batting above .229 as a team in their last 5 games!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 26

Vegas Butcher

Toronto Blue Jays -139

Stroman is my 30th ranked starter who has a strong 3.3 K/BB rate, 0.5 HR/9, and 3.0/3.4/3.5 FxS. He has struggled lately but that’s partly due to an inflated .373 BABIP and a very low 57% strand-rate over the last 30-days. His 3.3 FIP during this time is much lower than his 6.6 ERA, indicating a pitcher who continues to pitch well just isn’t getting the ‘results’ right now. Well, he’ll be facing a Boston team which he’s dominated twice already this year. In those 2 outings (back to back at the end of July), Stroman allowed 1 ER, 7 hits, and had a 15 K to 4 BB rate in 14 innings of work. That’s as dominant as it gets. His counter-part is Joe Kelly, who on the surface has pitched ‘well’ since coming over from STL. In 3 of his 4 starts, Kelly has allowed 3 total ER’s in 16 innings of work. Of course his 16 BB’s while only 14 K in 22 innings in the American League, indicate a pitcher that is struggling. Besides, he’s faced the weak lineups of STL, CIN, and SEA in those 3 ‘decent’ starts of his. Today, he’ll be going up against an offense that ranks 3rd overall against right-handers and crushes fastballs and curveballs, Kelly’s two top pitches. Over the last 30-days, Kelly’s 4.7 ERA is lower than Stroman’s, but his 5.2 FIP is almost 2 runs higher. His 15% BB% and 1.0 HR/9 rates have also been very high, and it’s only a matter of time before he gets rocked once again the way he did against the Astros on 08/17. Even after 2 wins in Toronto, Boston is still only 5-10 on the season against the Jays, and they’re 21-33 against the division. I like Toronto’s chances today behind Stroman, and expect the Jays to avoid the sweep tonight.


Minnesota Twins +110

If Madison Bumgarner, Matt Shoemaker, Jordan Zimmermann, or Cole Hamels were pitching tonight for the Twins, what do you think their price would be? Well, Hughes is on the same level as all of them this season but he continues to be disrespected by the Bookmakers. In the last-30 days, Hughes has been even better, pitching like the 11th best pitcher with a pERA (projected) of 2.7, which is the same mark as Felix Hernandez over this time-frame. The reason he’s being disrespected is because he’s facing Liam Hendriks, one of the worst starting pitchers in the league. In 13 limited innings for the Jays this year his 6.1 ERA matched his career mark, and he was promptly shipped to the minors, ending up with the Royals in the beginning of August. Here are some career stats for Hendriks:

LH: 169 career inninings, 3 – 13 record, 2.1 K/BB, 1.8 HR/9, 16.1 ERA, 5.4 FIP, 4.9 SIERA, 6.7% SwStr%

In addition, Hendriks depends on his 90-MPH fastball which is a pretty ineffective pitch, because his secondary offerings are pretty poor. Well, Twins rank 2nd in the league this year offensively against the ‘fastball’, trailing only the Orioles. Twins are 27-29 for +4.7 Units against their divisional opponents, so even though this team is having a poor overall season, they continue to play well within their division. They have a stronger offense in this matchup and much better starter on the mound, and I like their chances of pulling out a win here tonight.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 26

OC Dooley

Twins +105

Even though Kansas City continues to be the hottest team in baseball due to a PITCHING CHANGE they are only a slight home favorite this evening versus a Divisional bottom-feeder.  The Royals had slated to go with rookie Yordani Ventura and his 95 mile-per-hour fastball but he has been scratched in favor of minor league call-up Liam Hendricks who actually began his career with Minnesota which brings “familiarity” to the table.  Hendricks is facing his former team at the wrong time as entering this series the Twins offense put up a combined FORTY-TWO runs in a four-game set versus an opponent (Tigers) with a top-notch pitching staff.  The entire Minnesota offense has been picked up by the return of Joe Mauer from a lengthy stay on the disabled list.  In the month of August Mauer’s numbers (.309 average with 12 RBI) have been solid.  On the mound for the Twins is veteran Phil Hughes who has given his team four consecutive QUALITY starts (6+ innings while allowing just ONE run in each assignment). For those not aware Kansas City manager Ned Yost angered the local fan base last night taking fans to task for not showing up in the midst of a pennant race (just 13,000 in attendance) which takes some of the momentum (ninth inning “walk off” homer) off the table

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