Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 5

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 5

Steve Rosen

Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees    
Play: Detroit Tigers -129

David Price's debut with his new club will come against a familiar foe when the Detroit Tigers visit the New York Yankees in the second of a four-game series on Tuesday. Price owns a 10-5 record with a 3.66 ERA in 24 career appearances (23 starts) against New York, including a 6-2 mark at Yankee Stadium.Price has pitched at least seven frames in his last 13 games.. He is 1-1 in three starts against the Yankees this season after yielding an unearned run in seven innings at New York on July 1.

Kuroda is hoping to avoid a repeat of his second-half collapse of a year ago, when he staggered to a 1-7 mark in 10 starts over the final two months. History repeats itself and tonight will be no different! Kuroda is 0-1 with a 3.72 ERA in three starts versus Detroit and must be wary of Miguel Cabrera, who is 4-for-9 with a pair of homers against him.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 5

Jeff Clement

Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees
Play: Detroit Tigers -125

The Tigers are looking forward to Price's 1st starts as he his 10-5 in his career against the Yankees while the 39 year old Kuroda is beginning his 2nd half of the season decline. The Yankees are 1-4 last 5 Kuroda starts as an underdog and 3-7 last 10 games against left handers. Miguel Cabrera is 4 for 9 with 2 dingers against Kuroda.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 5

Chase Diamond

Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Texas Rangers +125

This game has the 43-69 Rangers and the 55-58 White Sox. Rangers got his hard bye injurys but they are the better team I believe overall. Rangers have lost 4 straight and Colby Lewis has struggled on the mound this season but I look for him to turn it around tonight. John Danks is on the mound for the White Sox and he is no Sandy Koufax and should never be laying this much juice. only 27% are backing the Rangers here yet this line has moved around 15 cents the wrong way showing us sharp action on the Rangers side.


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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 5

Tony Stoffo

Baltimore vs. Toronto
Play: Under 9

Going with a play on the under here with Norris matching up against Buehrle in this spot. Norris is 1-1, with a 2.89 EA in his last three starts, and his 5 Norris starts have stayed under the total. While Buehrle is coming off a quality start where he allowed just 1 run, and 6 hits in 6+ innings pitched. The Under is 7-1 in the Orioles last 8 road games. The Under is 11-3 in the Orioles last 14 overall. Under this posted total the play here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 5

LT Profits

Rangers vs White Sox
Pick: Rangers +120

Colby Lewis of the Texas Rangers missed all of last season following hip surgery and he is the first known Major Leaguer to come back from that procedure, so his slow start this year was understandable. However, he has now allowed three runs or less each of his last three starts including limiting the Yankees to two runs on just four hits in seven innings last Wednesday, and he held tonight’s opponent the Chicago White Sox to one run on six hits in 5.1 innings back in April. Chicago starter John Danks got off to a nice start in 2014, but he was out-performing his sabre numbers that have him with a 4.85 FIP and 4.71xFIP, and as usually happens he is converging to those numbers now with an ugly 8.27 ERA and 1.78 WHIP his last three starts. The Rangers are 9-3 in Lewis's last 12 road starts vs. teams with losing records.

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Jimmy Boyd

Chicago White Sox -126

The White Sox are showing exceptional value as a small home favorite against the Rangers on Tuesday. Chicago's John Danks is a much stronger pitcher than the numbers would suggest and I look for him to dominate at home against Texas, who has lost 5 straight and are hitting just .238 as a team over their last 7 games. Danks has a respectable 3.52 ERA and 1.234 WHIP at home and has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 15 of 22 starts this season.

The Rangers will counter with Colby Lewis, who has an ugly 4.29 ERA and 1.689 WHIP over 9 road starts and a less than impressive 5.29 ERA and 1.500 WHIP over 10 career starts against the White Sox.

Texas is 7-19 in their last 26 games vs a left-handed starter, 5-21 in their last 26 road games and just 1-7 in their last 8 road games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Chicago is 5-1 in their last home games versus a team that's winning fewer than 40% of their road games and 8-3 in Danks' last 11 starts overall.

There's also a strong system on Chicago. Teams with a money line of -100 to -150 with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.50 over his last 3 starts, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 10 games are 41-10 over the last 5 seasons. That's a 80% system in favor of the White Sox.

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Ari Atari

Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies    
Play: Colorado Rockies -144

The juice is too high to recommend this play as a premium pick or anything more than 1 unit (1% of your bankroll). If you can get a -1 for Colorado (Currently priced at -107 at Pinnacle) then go for it instead of the moneyline. Colorado is a tough opponent at home and they welcome the Cubs who will have Travis Wood on the mound. This guy is 0-3 with an alarming 8.62ERA in his last six starts while the Rockies send out Brett Anderson who is 1-0 with a 1.33ERA in his last 3 starts. Take the Rockies to pound in the runs in the most hitter friendly park in the Majors.

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Dave Price

Chicago White Sox -119

With yesterday's loss, the Rangers fell to 12-39 in their last 51 overall and 5-21 in their last 26 on the road.  They've dropped 22 of their last 27 in the second game of a series and six straight on the road versus left-handed starters.  Danks has struggled in recent starts but has been solid at home all season, as evidenced by his 3.52 home ERA.  The Sox are 8-3 in his last 11 starts and 4-0 all-time in his home starts versus the Rangers.  He's posted a 2.49 ERA in those four.  Texas' Lewis has a 5.98 ERA on the season and a 5.29 ERA in eight career starts versus the White Sox.  The Rangers are 2-5 in Lewis' last 7 starts and 1-8 in their last nine road games versus Chicago.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 5

Steve Janus

San Diego Padres +108

This is a great spot to back the Padres as an underdog. San Diego will be sending out Jesse Hann, who has been putting up elite numbers of late. Hann is 7-2 with a 2.01 ERA and 1.025 WHIP over 9 starts. He's got a 1.42 ERA and 1.000 WHIP over his last 3 and hasn't allowed more than 1 earned run in a single start during this stretch. In fact, he's only allowed more than 2 earned runs in two of his 9 starts. I'll gladly take my chances on the Padres with the Twins sending out Phil Hughes, who has an ugly 5.51 ERA over 11 home starts.

Key Trends - Padres are 15-5 in their last 20 games revenging 2 straight home loss to an opponent, while Minnesota is 2-11 in Hughes' last 13 home starts in night games and 0-11 in their last 11 home games with an OBP of .375 or better over their last 5 games.

System - Any team (SAN DIEGO) - after 3 straight games where they stranded 10 or more runners on base, starting a pitcher who gave up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings are 30-10 (75%) against the money line since 1997.

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Sam Martin

Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds

Great line value backing the Reds behind Johnny Cueto tonight in Cleveland, as the Reds look to bounce back after being shut down by Cleveland ace Corey Kluber last night. The Indians won that game 7-1 - scoring early and never letting the Reds into the game. Tonight, however, it's the Reds that have the red hot pitcher on the mound and we can't pass up Cincy at this price.

Cueto comes in with a fantastic 2.15 ERA and even more impressive is his 0.910 WHIP through 23 starts. And it's not like he's slowing down at all, holding opponents to 3 earned runs or less in each of his last ten starts. Cleveland's Josh Tomlin threw a complete-game, one-hit shutout back in late June, but the Indians have lost his next four starts since.

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Joe Williams

Reds vs. Indians
Play: Reds -101

The Indians buried the Reds in the interleague series opener Monday, now look for the visitors to return the favor. The Reds are just 1-10 in their past 11 visits to Progressive Field. However, they have won Johnny Cueto's past five outings against the Indians. And while the Reds are just 5-12 in their past 17 overall, and 3-11 in their past 14 road games, the Reds are 8-2 in Cueto's past 10 outings, and 5-1 in his past six starts against a team with a winning record.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 5

Sports Atari

Houston Astros -111)

The Houston Astros took 3 of 4 in Toronto and will continue making some noise tonight on Philly. The Astros outscored the Blue Jays 17-4 in the series while the Phillies got blanked 2 games in a row with only 2 runs in a series against Nationals where they dropped 2 of 3. Philadelphia was off yesterday and they’re 2-8 in 10 recent games following a day of rest.

Dallas Keuchel hits the mound for the Astros and he’s 1-1 with a 1.69ERA in his last 2 starts while posting a 10-7, 2.97ERA for the season. He comes into this one following a 4 hitter against the Oakland A’s and will be riding confident behind a team that has won 4 of 5 games.

Kyle Kendrick is not doing nearly as well after giving up 13 earned runs in 16.3 innings losing 3 of his last 4 starts with a 7.25ERA in that span. He has a 1-3 record with a 5.33ERA against the Astros. Houston put up an average of 5.67 runs per game in the past week and they’ll do enough damage to take game 1 in Philadelphia tonight.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 5

Rocketman

Houston @ Philadelphia
Play:  Houston -107

The Houston Astros travel to Philadelphia to take on the Phillies on Tuesday night.  Philadelphia is 13-31 last 3 years and 1-8 this year in inter-league play.  Houston has won 4 of their past 5 games overall.  Houston is scoring 5.9 runs per game their past seven games overall while allowing only 3 runs per game.  Philadelphia is scoring only 3 runs per game while allowing 5.4 runs per game their past seven games overall.  Philadelphia is allowing 6.1 runs per game in inter-league play this year where teams are batting a combined .291 against them.  Dallas Keuchel has pitched well with a 10-7 record and 2.97 ERA overall this year, 7-3 with a 3.28 ERA on the road this season and a 1.71 ERA his last 3 starts.  Keuchel has 104 strikeouts compared to only 33 walks overall this year.  Kyle Kendrick is 5-11 with a 4.91 ERA overall this year and 1-2 with a 7.02 ERA his last 3 starts.  Keuchel is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his 1 start vs Philadelphia in his career.  Kendrick is 0-3 with a 5.87 ERA in his four starts vs Houston in his career.  We'll recommend a small play on Houston tonight! 


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SPORTS WAGERS

Baltimore +101 over TORONTO

The Blue Jays have been extremely streaky so when they’re hot, they’re hot and when they’re cold, they’re freezing, which happens to be right now. The Blue Jays won the opener of a three-game series in Houston but subsequently lost the final three games of that series and were outscored 17-4 in the process. More disturbing, however, is the Jays inability to produce against two of the worst starters (Brad Oberholtzer and Scott Feldman) in the majors in the final two games of that series. When the Jays went cold back in June, they went cold for practically the entire month and appear headed in that direction again. Now they’ll face Bud Norris. Norris injured his groin on June 21 while pitching against the Yanks and missed a couple of starts. He has had a steady 2014 season thus far, with a 50%/0% dominant start/disaster start split. He’s also been sharp since returning with 20 K’s in his last 23 innings and a nice 47%/29% groundball/fly-ball split. Norris has a swing and miss slider, outstanding control and while his K is down on the year, it’s been creeping up lately.

Baltimore’s win yesterday may have been one of the most impressive of the season. After a three-game set against the Mariners on the weekend, the O’s had to play a make-up game against the first place Nats in Washington yesterday for one game before this huge three-game series with the second place Jays. The O’s fell behind twice and we’re trailing 3-1 in the seventh before going off for six answered in a 7-3 victory. Instead of “looking ahead” to this important series they responded with a focused effort and the task at hand. That gives you an idea of the mindset and determination of the Orioles. More importantly, the O’s went off for 14 hits and that’s the first time in their past 16 games that they had 10 or more hits in a game. They could easily duplicate that against Mark Buehrle. Since opening the year on an 8-1 tear with a low ERA, Buehrle has gone 3-7 since. His ERA is still low at 3.11 but it’s still a mirage. His base skills profile him as a mid-4 ERA pitcher. Buehrle has just 82 K’s in 142 innings to go along with a WHIP of 1.33. A 79% strand rate and 6% hr/f are the only reasons he has a helpful ERA and we can assure more of those fly-balls he surrenders are going to leave the yard in the final seven weeks of the season and we’re all over it. 


Boston +140 over ST. LOUIS

The Red Sox will play out the string in the role of the spoiler and it would come as no surprise if they thrived in that role. This is an extremely dangerous offense that can go off at any time and they certainly have a chance to do that against Lance Lynn. Lynn’s 2.98 ERA is almost a full run higher than his xERA of 3.81. He’s posted a 1.96 ERA over his last three starts but an alarming 44% line-drive rate over that span reveals a ton of hard hit balls right at people. Lynn is also walking far too many batters and has now issued 52 free passes in 133 innings and 12 over his past 26 innings. Lynn is living on the edge with his 84% strand rate since the beginning of June but when a pitcher is giving up line drives and walks, disaster is waiting in the not too distant future.

Rubby De la Rosa had a really rough July, both on the surface (5.32 ERA, 1.68 WHIP) and beneath it: 2.9 K’s/9, 3.3 BB/9, 44% groundball rate. However, with mid-90s heat, a potentially impact changeup, and an ability to induce groundballs, De La Rosa has the tools to become an impact starter. He's a work-in-progress to be sure but he also has the ability to dazzle. Facing a weak hitting NL team in a favorable park may just be the recipe he needs right now to get back on track. What we know for sure is that Lynn is an overvalued pitcher, which provides us with this a nice buy-low/sell-high opportunity.


N.Y. Mets +147 over WASHINGTON

The Nationals are not the same team with Ryan Zimmerman on the rack. Zimmerman is on the DL and with him the lineup the Nationals are 33-19 this season. Without him they are just 28-32 but over their past 27 games without him, Washington is just 9-18. Gio Gonzalez missed a month from mid-May to mid-June and it appears that more trouble is brewing. Gonzalez has failed to make it out of the fourth inning in two of his past three starts. Gonzalez had a coming out party during his inaugural season in Washington with a sub-3.00 ERA and 21 wins. However, he's struggled at times since then and he's flirting with a .500 record and a very ordinary ERA as the season enters the stretch drive. Gonzalez is issuing more walks, he’s giving up more hits and he’s not lasting deep into games.

Zach Wheeler offers up nothing but value at this price. Wheeler has posted outstanding skills in two separate months (April and July). His skills in July featured excellent command and a continued groundball tilt. Overall, Wheeler has posted an elite 53% groundball rate. He has 125 K’s in 128 innings and his swing and miss rate in July was also elite at 11%. Only two starters in the NL had a higher four-seam fastball velocity than Wheeler's 94.7 mph fastball in July; Wily Peralta (95.5 mph) and Stephen Strasburg (95.1 mph). Wheeler is a future ace with major breakout potential but he’s not being priced as such, which makes him a must play in this range. Definite overlay.


Tampa Bay +116 over OAKLAND

Despite being issued nine free passes by the Rays pitching last night, the A’s scored just three runs and two of them came on seeing-eye singles. Oakland has been struggling miserably at the plate recently and they are hitting just .242 against lefties this year, which ranks 27th out of the 30 MLB teams. Lefty Drew Smyly began to piece things together as a starter with Detroit in July. Smyly has always had great stuff but the transition from reliever to starter has been a slow one. When you’re the main piece in a trade for David Price, it says something. Smyly has 19 K’s over his past 17.2 innings. His combination of a 10% swing and miss rate and 65% first pitch strike rate gives his underlying skills strong support. No question that Smyly will be a little extra jacked up here in his first start with his new team.

Meanwhile, Jason Hammel has had a terrible time since joining the A's, going 0-4 in four starts, with a 9.53 ERA, 2.12 WHIP and 12/10 K/BB. This after going 8-5 with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 17 starts with the Cubs. It hasn't been bad luck that has derailed Hammel since arriving in Oakland, as his plummeting skills are to be blamed. Should we be surprised at Hammel’s struggles in his new digs? The answer is a resounding no. The A’s are Hammel’s fourth team in eight years. In 2012 he posted a 3.43 ERA with the Orioles but his other years saw him post ERA’s of 7.77, 6.14, 4.60, 4.81, 4.97 and 4.33. That 2012 ERA and first half with the Cubbies this year looks like a blind squirrel finding a nut. Hammel’s history says it all. He’s an average pitcher with average stuff that has never thrived for an extended period of time. That first win (with his new team) becomes more elusive with each loss and it’s safe to say that Hammel is not very comfortable in his new surroundings. Hammel is starter to avoid rightnow, especially when spotting a tag.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 5

Kevin Thomas

Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Baltimore Orioles -103

The O's and Blue Jays square off tonight in a AL EAST match-up with playoff positioning on the line. Watching the line, public backing the Blue Jays. Vegas is backing the O's. The reason is B Norris is 2-0 with a 1.89 era against the Blue Jays. M Buehrie has gone 1-4 with a 5.86 era against the O's since start of last year. My money is on Norris and the hot bat of M Cabrera.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 5

Jeff Alexander

Detroit Tigers -124

When the Yankees are installed as underdogs at home it has been for good reason as they are 3-13 in their last 16 in the role.  The reason they find themselves at plus-money today is because David Price has owned them in the Bronx.  He's is 6-2 with a 3.57 ERA in 12 starts at Yankee Stadium, including 4-0 with a 1.91 ERA in his last 5 starts there.  I like his chances of outdueling Kuroda, who has a 4.08 ERA at home.  The Yanks are 1-4 in Kuroda's last 5 starts as an underdog.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 5

Jack Jones

San Diego Padres +107

The San Diego Padres may be just 51-60 on the season, but this pesky team clearly has not quit.  They have won five of their last six while beating up on NL playoff contenders in St. Louis and Atlanta in the process.

I look for them to keep rolling tonight behind Jesse Hahn, who is 7-2 with a 2.01 ERA and 1.025 WHIP in nine starts with 54 K's over 53 2/3 innings.  Hahn is 4-0 with a 1.50 ERA in four road starts, and 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA in his last three starts overall.

Phil Hughes is having a decent season for Minnesota (50-60), but he is nowhere near on Hahn's level.  The right-hander has gone 10-2 with a 4.12 ERA in 22 starts this season, including 3-5 with a 5.51 ERA in 11 home starts.  Hughes is also 0-3 with a 5.62 ERA in his last three starts overall.

Minnesota is 0-11 (-12.5 Units) against the money line in home games with an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last five games over the last three seasons.  The Twins are 16-41 (-23.6 Units) against the money line in home games in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  Hughes is 2-11 (-11.1 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last two seasons.

San Diego is 15-5 (+11.5 Units) against the money line revenging two straight home losses vs opponent over the last two seasons.  Hahn is 6-0 (+6.8 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams that average 0.9 or less HR's/game this season.  San Diego is 7-1 in Hahn's last eight starts.  The Twins are 30-79 in their last 109 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 5

Bruce Marshall

Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Los Angeles Angels

While it seems ludicrous to pick against the Dodgers when Clayton Kershaw is on the mound, we also don't get a chance to back the red-hot Angels (winners of 7 of their last 10) at this sort of price. Fortunately for the Halos, the Blue is mired in another of its recurring offensive funks, and has hit just .207 and totaled 10 runs while losing three of four since Kershaw's latest outing. The Dodgers have only scored 12 runs in their last five games as well. Keep in mind that Kershaw is a very mortal 2-2 with a 3.74 ERA in the past vs. the Angels, whose potent offense presents a much bigger challenge than the series of lightweight NL attacks Kershaw has faced in the past month. The Halos opt for Hector Santiago to start this game in place of Tyler Skaggs, who has one on the DL, but the southpaw can draw inspiration from teammate Garrett Richards' 5-hit shutout last night, which also means the bullpen will be fresh and rested when needed tonight.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 5

Steve Rosen

Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees    
Play: Detroit Tigers -129

David Price's debut with his new club will come against a familiar foe when the Detroit Tigers visit the New York Yankees in the second of a four-game series on Tuesday. Price owns a 10-5 record with a 3.66 ERA in 24 career appearances (23 starts) against New York, including a 6-2 mark at Yankee Stadium.Price has pitched at least seven frames in his last 13 games.. He is 1-1 in three starts against the Yankees this season after yielding an unearned run in seven innings at New York on July 1.

Kuroda is hoping to avoid a repeat of his second-half collapse of a year ago, when he staggered to a 1-7 mark in 10 starts over the final two months. History repeats itself and tonight will be no different! Kuroda is 0-1 with a 3.72 ERA in three starts versus Detroit and must be wary of Miguel Cabrera, who is 4-for-9 with a pair of homers against him.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 5

Scott Delaney

My free play is on the San Diego Padres in Minnesota against the Twins, and in this one I want you listing the pitchers: Jesse Hahn over Phil Hughes.

Truth be told, this is simply speculation based on how well Hahn is doing this season, particularly on the road. The rookie right-hander, who opened this campaign in Double-A ball, has been extremely impressive, as he's won seven of his first nine starts.

Most importantly, Hahn has yet to lose a start on the road this season, as he's a perfect 4-0 with a 1.50 ERA in four starts away from Petco Park. Tonight he gets the nod in sticky downtown Minneapolis at Target Field.

As for Hughes, while I know he's in after bouncing back from a right shin contusion and produced a quality start against the Kansas City Royals last Wednesday, yet he was stuck with his third straight loss. I'm not so sure the right-hander will know what to do against a National League entry, and could see the showers early in this one.

All Padres.

1♦ SAN DIEGO

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