Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 28

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 28

Michael Alexander

Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Washington Nationals -144

Miami starter Eovaldi looks to turn his season around after collecting just one victory in his last 10 starts, including a pair of rough turns since the All-Star break. The 24-year-old Texan gave up 13 runs in 11 innings his last two outings. In addition he is 17-27 in his last 44 night games.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
217284 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 28

River City Sharps

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Toronto Blue Jays +126

The Blue Jays have played some of their best baseball of the year against the Boston Red Sox and they'll get another chance tonight as these teams open up a three-game set in Boston. The Jays will send knuckleballer R.A. Dickey to the mound to be opposed by the Red Sox Clay Bucholz. Bucholz has been hit hard in his last two outings, which resulted in eight earned runs over just 12 innings of work. He has also really struggled this season at Fenway Park, where he has posted a 6.32 ERA in seven home starts. Dickey beat these Sox one week ago and has actually beat them twice on the season. After a rocky start to the season, Dickey has been a very solid contributor to the Jays pitching staff and has actually gone at least six innings in his last eight starts. The Red Sox have struggled mightily since their losing trip to Toronto last week, going 1-5 in their last six games, while the Jays have won seven of their last eight games. There is not a lot of good mojo working in Beantown right now and for us, the value clearly lies with the road dog playing great baseball.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
217284 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 28

Jack Jones

Tampa Bay Rays -126

The Tampa Bay Rays (51-54) have not quit on their season.  They have won five of their last seven overall to continue their torrid run over the past month-plus as one of the best teams in baseball during this stretch.  I like their chances of winning again Monday against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Jake Odorizzi has really pitched well this season for Tampa Bay, especially at home.  The right-hander has posted a 2.73 ERA and 1.117 WHIP over 11 home starts this year.  He is also 2-1 with a 2.94 ERA in his last three starts.

Kyle Lohse has also pitched very well at home this season for Milwaukee, but he has been much worse on the road.  Lohse has posted a 3.74 ERA and 1.286 WHIP over 12 road starts in 2014.

Tampa Bay is 20-6 (+14.5 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 3 seasons.  The Brewers are 15-38 in their last 53 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Rays are 8-1 in their last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
217284 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 28

Dave Price

Texas Rangers -142

The Rangers have the edge with ace Yu Darvish on the bump.  He has a 2.49 ERA at home and a 1.85 ERA in four career starts versus the Yankees.  He is 2-0 in two career home starts versus the Yanks, holding them without a run in 14 2-3 innings.  The Rangers are 8-3 in his last 11 home starts and 6-1 in his last seven starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  New York's David Phelps has a nice 2.70 ERA in two career starts versus the Rangers, but both of them came at home.  The road hasn't treated his as well.  The Yankees have dropped eight of his nine road starts this season while he's compiled a 4.36 ERA.  They are 0-6 in his last six starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
217284 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 28

Steve Janus

Tampa Bay Rays -126

System - Play On - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (TAMPA BAY) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70% are 57-17 (77%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
217284 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 28

Jimmy Boyd

New York Mets -125

The Mets are showing great value as a small home favorite on Monday. New York will be sending out Bartolo Colon, who has an impressive 2.81 ERA and 1.006 WHIP at home this season, while Philadelphia's A.J. Burnett has an ugly 4.73 ERA and 1.422 WHIP on the road.

Colon is 17-4 against the money line vs. teams outscored by opponents  by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.

Big system in play telling us to fade the Phillies. Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher after a win by 2 runs or less against opponent after scoring 3 runs or less 4 straight games are 63-133 since 1997. That's a 68% system in favor of the Mets.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
217284 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 28

Sam Martin

Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins
Prediction: Washington Nationals

Miami has done well to win four straight - last losing when tonight's starter Nathan Eovaldi took the mound. We look for the Marlins to fall once again with Eovaldi pitching, as he has seen his Marlins lose each of the last five times he's taken the mound, and he last two starts were especially rough allowing a combined 13 earned runs in 11 innings of work.

Miami lost by scores of 9-1 and 6-1 in that game, and against a Washington offense that has reached double-digits in base hits in eight of their last ten games overall, Eovaldi could be in for another long night. Washington starter Jordan Zimmermann has been pretty consistent all season with a 3.20 ERA and is clearly the more reliable pitcher in this pitching matchup.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
217284 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 28

Bob Balfe

Redsox/Blue Jays Over 8.5

Clay Buchholz has been brutal this year and the knuckle ball of R.A. Dickey is not what it once was. Both pitchers do give up their fair share of walks and with the win blowing out tonight there could be a few innings with crooked numbers up on the board. Look for a high scoring game. Take the Over.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
217284 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 28

MLB Predictions

Yankees / Rangers Under 8

These two teams met for four games in New York last week and all four games fell well under the total, with totals of 6, 3, 3, and 6. Tonight's two starting pitchers went head to head as well with the Yankees winning that game 2-1. Texas has lost 5 of their last 6 games overall and are averaging just 2 runs per game during that span. The Yankees have scored 4 or fewer runs in 7 of their last 8 and are also struggling at the plate. In July New York has a team OPS of .683 (21st in the Majors) while the Rangers are right behind them at .677. David Phelps is on the mound for New York and he is 5-4 with a 3.77 ERA, .251 OBA and 1.34 WHIP. In his four July starts he has a 2.22 ERA and .228 OBA. Yu Darvish will be starting for Texas and he is 9-6 on the season with a 2.92 ERA, .231 OBA and 1.20 WHIP. At home he is 4-3 with a 2.49 ERA. The UNDER is 9-3-1 in the Yankees last 13 overall and 4-1 in Phelps' last 5 starts. The UNDER is 6-1 in the Rangers last 7 overall and 19-6-2 in Darvish's last 27 home starts. The UNDER is 12-3-2 in these two teams last 17 meetings. Take the UNDER.


Athletics / Astros Over 8.5

Brett Oberholtzer started off with great promise this season, but has since tailed off with the Astros. Nevertheless, the Astros are enjoying a successful season. I know it seems outlandish to say 42-63 is a success, however there were many people that thought they wouldn't even reach 50 wins this year. I figured their pitching to be adequate, but it hasn't been adequate at all, and the offense has been able to shoulder the load a little bit. Oberholtzer has a tough time finding success at home in Houston. Most notably a real tough time keeping runners off the bases. Note his WHIP of 1.51 and .351 OBP at home. Additionally, Oberholtzer brings a home ERA of 5.08 into tonight. He only has one victory in Houston thus far in 2014. This will be his third tilt against the A's, his first on the road was great, allowing just 1 run. But back in Oakland he got hammered for 8 hits and 6 runs in only 3 innings of work. This will be the third time the Athletics see him in just a few months, so I expect them to be well prepared for what he is going to bring tonight. Like Oberholtzer, Jesse Chavez has had issues keeping runners off the bases, but in the case of Chavez it is on the road. His WHIP is at 1.42 with a .336 OBP to go with his 3.94 ERA away from home. Oakland is one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the majors so that always helps out, but he has ran into issues elsewhere. In his last three starts on the road, Chavez surrendered 12 runs and 24 hits. He recently faced the Astros at home, holding them to only 2 runs in a 9-7 A's win. I expect the Astros to be better this time around at home against Chavez. If this was last year or two years ago you would have never seen me on an OVER in a game featuring the Athletics and Astros, but the A's offense is quite potent, and Houston is on the upswing. Look for the OVER to cash in as we should get more than 8 runs in Houston tonight.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
217284 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 28

Rob Veno   

Washington  at Miami
Play: Over 7.5

Not real sure what has gone wrong with Miami’s Nate Eovaldi but the majority of his starts since mid-June have been disastrous. In the eight outings during this span, Eovaldi has managed to throw just three quality starts. The team has gone 1-7 as Eovaldi (1-4 with 3 no decisions) has posted a 6.19 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and allowed 89 TB in 48 IP. The most alarming part of his performances is the drastic drop in strikeouts. Of the 209 batters Eovaldi has faced since June 13, he’s fanned only 21 for a near 1:10 ratio. All the contact being made by opposing lineups has led to the poor results but with Eovaldi still routinely hitting 95 MPH on the gun, velocity can’t be blamed. Inability to locate inside the strike zone could be problematic tonight against Washington which has averaged 4.5 runs per game since the All-Star break. Not having Ryan Zimmerman (15 day DL, hamstring) is a blow to the Nationals offense but they were able to produce four runs two of the last three days versus strong Cincinnati pitching. Washington starter Jordan Zimmermann blames poor location, not a biceps injury suffered earlier this month for his short outing against Colorado last week. His last couple of starts have lasted less than six innings and Miami’s home offense has been extremely solid this season which could make this a tough start. The total is in a spot here that dictates taking a shot on the over. It’s likely that one of these two pitchers in rough current form will get hit hard enough to keep the scoreboard churning so the play here is over 7.5 +1.05.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
217284 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 28

Primetime Insiders

Colorado +130

We understand why this line is sitting at 8 with the Rockies playing on the road and the wind blowing in slightly at Wrigley but come on Vegas. We have the top offensive team in the league going up against an overrated pitcher in Wada. Wada has looked mediocre at best this year and that was against the Red and Padres where he gave up 5 earned runs. We know the Rockies are a lot worse on the round but it is hard to believe that they will not get at last 4 or 5 runs agains Wada. The Rockies are 3-6 since the all star break but are hitting close to .300. On the other hand we have Flande who has been torched this year with an ERA north of 7. Unlike Wada, Flande has pitched against some really good offensive teams including the Nationals twice and the Dodgers. The Cubs are only batting .237 since the break and are 2-7 at home. Flande has a three pitch arsenal including 61% fastball, 19% slider, and 20% curveball. The Cubs are average against the fastball and curveball but are dead last against the slider. If Flande can utilize his slider effectively he should have some success against the Cubs as Flande is very underrated. Wada is all about three pitches as well the problem is that the Rockies are top 6 against fastballs, and best in the league against sliders and change ups which Wada turns to over 20% of the time. Once again we realize that the Rockies are not even close to the same team at home but we will take the big dog on the road.

Oakland -1.5 -125

Oberholtzer is overrated with an ERA of 1.08 at home, 5.00 against the Althetics and is going up against one of the best hitting teams in baseball. While Chavez is going up against the slumping Astros teams without Springer.

Milwaukee +110

Lohse has been excellent since the break owning a 2-0 record with an ERA of 1.32. He has had great success on the road with a 7-2 record. The Brewers are better hitting on the road and should be able to find some success against Odorizzi who is slightly overrated.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
217284 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 28

Bruno Bets

New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers    
Play: Texas Rangers -142

New York love may lessen this price even further in a turnaround game that again pits Darvish and Phelps. After Yu lost a 5 inning rain-shortened game due in part to his own balk, I expect him to be out for blood here.

The Yankees' offense has not been clicking and I fully expect that Darvish will shut them down tonight. Run support, or more specifically lack of it, is always an issue in Darvish starts, but after his last home-outing debacle we can probably expect his best and they should not need many.

On the other side Phelps is serviceable, but usually not much more. The Yankees are 1-8 in his last 9 road starts and have generally not performed well in the dog role, going just 8-24 when installed at +110 or higher. The Rangers have performed admirably in the role of mid-sized favorite going 6-1 at home in Darvish's most recent starts.

Although any game that Darvish starts the Under is naturally the first look, Phelps can be had and I simply cannot rely on him enough to back that low total. Yu will have his work cut-out, as the Bombers' line-up will be heavily-stacked with LH hitters, as it always is. The Rangers were in all 4 games at Yankee Stadium and although they took just one, they could have won any/all of them. The fact that the totals were 6,3,3 and 6 will have everyone on the Under. Is it ever really that easy?

Both Gardner and Elsbury had a weak offense series against the Jays, so I am obviously hoping that continues.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
217284 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 28

LineCatchers

Milwaukee Brewers + 121

Kyle Loshe gets the nod for the Brewers tonight as they face an in form Tampa Bay team which has gone 15-5 in their last 20 games. Loshe has been solid thus far in 2014 going 11-4 with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 21 starts. He has given up just 2 ER combined in his last two starts. The Brewers have won 9 of his 12 starts on the road and I see good value on Milwaukee tonight.

Jake Odorizzi will toe the slab for the Rays who will be looking to continue their great form by getting a series win against the Brewers to begin the week. Odorizzi has pitched well at home in 2014, going 3-4 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. His pitch location hasn’t been at its best over his past few outings though, he has allowed an average of 2.3 walks per game. In 11 ‘Night’ starts this year, Odorizzi has pitched to a WHIP of 1.46.

The Brewers have a BA of .280 and averaged over 5 runs per game in 15 inter league games in 2014, they are 9-6 in those games. The Rays have hit just .239 in 14 inter league games this season going 6-8.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
217284 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 28

Non Stop Sports Picks

Washington/Miami Over 7.5

Not sure about the line movement on this one other than the “perception” of what Zimmerman HAS done. But we look further, and we see he’s flat out been hit by the Marlins. In 2 starts this season vs the fish, Zimmerman has allowed hitters to bat .368 & his ERA is upwards of 7. On the opposite side, Eovaldi is no Cy Young. He’s 0-3 with a 6.6 ERA since June 23rd. Add to that the fact that OVER has ca$hed 43 out of 65 times in night games for the Marlins and we’ll take a stab here with + money. There is always the chance this goes to 7, and if you all can wait till closer to gametime, it’s worth the wait. If the line does move back to +100 on the OVER or gets juiced a little to the OVER…get down. If not, wait to see if this moves to 7. Either way, I see enough runs scoring tonight to ca$h this!

Blade
useravatar
Offline
217284 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Board Info

Board Stats:
 
Total Topics:
45138
Total Polls:
2
Total Posts:
284105
Average Posts Per Hour:
4.8
User Info:
 
Total Users:
3633
Newest User:
Dani
Members Online:
0
Guests Online:
1980

Online: 
There are no members online

Forum Legend:

 Topic
 New
 Locked
 Sticky
 Active
 New/Locked
 Sticky/Locked

Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Contact Us | Advertising | 888-99-SPREAD

THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE – If you think you have a gambling problem click here.

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Individual users are responsible for the laws regarding accessing gambling information from their jurisdictions. Many countries around the world prohibit gambling, please check the laws in your location. Any use of this information that may violate any federal, state, local or international law is strictly prohibited.

Copyright: The information contained on TheSpread.com website is protected by international copyright and may not be reproduced, or redistributed in any way without expressed written consent.

About: TheSpread.com is the largest sports betting news site in the United States. We provide point spread news, odds, statistics and information to over 199 countries around the world each year. Our coverage includes all North American College and Professional Sports as well as entertainment, political and proposition wagering news.

©1999-2013 TheSpread.com