Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 9

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 9

Jimmy Boyd

Miami Marlins +116

The Marlins are showing great value in Wednesday's series finale against the Diamondbacks. The Marlins are fresh off a win last night and are a respectable 5-3 over their last 8 overall. Arizona on the other hand is just 3-6 in their last 9.

Miami's Nathan Eovaldi is a respectable 5-4 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.252 WHIP over 18 starts, but what I like is that he's 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.059 WHIP over 3 career starts against Arizona. The Diamondbacks will be countering with Josh Collmenter, who comes in off an ugly start against Atlanta, where he allowed 5 runs on 11 hits in just 6 innings.

Arizona is just 4-11 in their last 15 games revenging a loss to an opponent as a home favorite, just 4-10 in their last 14 home games as a favorite of -125 to -175 and a mere 8-26 in their last 34 games against a NL starting pitcher with an ERA between 3.50 and 4.20. These three trends combine to form a strong 75% (47-16) system in favor of the Marlins.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 9

Jeff Alexander

Kansas City Royals +107

The Royals fell yesterday but are 4-1 in their last 5 following defeat.  They're also 12-5 in their last 17 on the road and 8-3 in their last 11 as a road dog.  The Rays are just 6-15 in their last 21 home games versus winning teams and 1-5 in Cobb's last 6 home starts.  Cobb hasn't been nearly reliable enough with a 4.37 home ERA on the season and a 7.20 ERA over his last 3 starts.  He's also struggled versus the Royals, posting a 5.04 ERA in 4 career starts against them.  Ventura has been at his best on the road where he has a 2.32 ERA, and he's in great form with a 2.33 ERA over his last 3 starts.  Ventura has faced the Rays once and held them to no runs on 2 hits in 6 innings earlier this season.  The Royals are 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 9

Marc Lyle

Los Angeles vs. Detroit
Play: Under 7½

I will be taking the under this afternoon between the Detroit Tigers and the LA Dodgers. Today we have two stud pitchers facing off in the early game after a barrage of runs last night. Add in that Cabrera will be sitting for rest and Martinez is still struggling with injuries, making a very potent part of that Tigers offense inactive.

Max Scherzer is in mid summer form and in his last 3 starts has gone 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. On the other side you have Greinke who has been giving up some runs with a 2-1 record in his last 3 but an ERA of 3.05. The fact that Cabrera and V Mart are not playing will of course greatly help Greinke. I will have to back the under in this early afternoon pitching duel.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 9

Jack Jones

Miami Marlins +116

The Miami Marlins have been one of the most underrated teams in the league this season.  They have gone 44-46 to this point while hitting .257 and scoring 4.3 runs per game.  The Arizona Diamondbacks are one of the worst teams in baseball at 38-54, and they cannot wait to get to the All-Star Break.

Nathan Eovaldi has been a big part of Miami's success this season.  He has held his own on the mound, going 5-4 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.252 WHIP over 18 starts.  Eovaldi is 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.059 WHIP in three career starts against Arizona as well.

Josh Collmenter has been decent this season for Arizona, going 7-5 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.285 WHIP over 15 starts and five relief appearances.  He sports a 4.18 ERA in his 15 starts and a 3.86 ERA and 1.653 WHIP in his last three.  He has allowed 27 base runners over 17 1/3 innings in his last three outings.

Arizona is 8-26 (-19.8 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 to 4.20 over the last two seasons.  The Diamondbacks are 4-11 (-10.9 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 9

Dave Price

Atlanta Braves -112

The Braves are worth a small investment at this price with Santana getting the ball.  He's been sound in back-to-back wins, giving up only four earned runs in 14 innings of work.  The Mets haven't given him a bit of trouble.  He's 3-0 with an ERA of 0.86 in three career starts against them.  Two of the wins have come this season, during which he's allowed just one run in 15 innings.  Gee is making his first start since May 10, which means rust is likely.  The Mets are 1-4 in his last five starts as a home underdog, 1-5 in his last six home starts versus teams that have a winning record and 0-4 in his last four home starts versus the Braves.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 9

River City Sharps

Washington Nationals -105

This is an interesting "regional" interleague matchup as the Washington Nationals and Doug Fister (7-2, 2.93) matchup with the Baltimore Orioles and Bud Norris (7-5, 3.62) Fister has been terrific for the Nationals and is 7-1 over his last nine starts, while Norris is making his first start since June 21st as he comes off the disabled list. The Nationals are 8-2 in Fisters last 10 starts and we think he represents a lot of value at the current price. Let's roll with the road team here!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 9

Harry Bondi

Tampa Bay was good to us again last night as your FREE WINNER and continue to be undervalued by the oddsmaker. Rays have won 11 of their last 13 games and tonight send Alex Cobb to the hill. We have been on Cobb his last two starts, both wins, and will continue to back him as he is finally getting the run support that was missing, and led to his poor record earlier in the year. Take the home team Rays for another FREE WINNER.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 9

Ben Burns

Miami vs. Arizona
Pick: Arizona

These teams have split the first two meetings of the series. The Diamondbacks won big in the opener before losing a heart-breaker last night. This should provide a solid opportunity for the Dbax to bounce back and grab the rubber game.

The Dbax are 5-3 (+1.2) when Collmenter starts at home. On the other hand, the Marlins are 2-6 (-3.8) when Eovaldi starts on the road.

While the Dbax have seen Eovaldi a number of times, Collmenter will have the advantage of starting against the Marlins for the first time. Note that he has tossed seven shutout innings of relief against them. Consider Arizona.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 9

Steve Merril

Washington vs. Baltimore
Pick: Over

These two teams were rained out on Tuesday night and now the Beltway Series changes scenery to Baltimore where the designated hitter will now be in play offensively.

Baltimore's Bud Norris is coming off the disabled list for this one.  He is 7-5 with a 3.62 ERA in 14 starts, but he has not pitched since June 21st.  The extended layoff, combined with the rain out last night, might disrupt Norris' rhythm.  Washington is averaging 5.3 runs and hitting .281 in their past seven games, plus they will now benefit from having the designated hitter as they can add another potent bat to the mix.

Doug Fister is 7-2 with a 2.93 ERA in 11 starts for the Nationals, however he has struggled against Baltimore with a 5.30 ERA in six career starts against the Orioles.  Baltimore's offense is in fantastic current form, averaging 6.1 runs and batting .299 in their past seven games, including scoring 22 runs on 47 hits in their past three games.  Both offenses should remain hot which will lead to a high-scoring game in Baltimore tonight.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 9

Bruce Marshall

Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks
Pick: Miami Marlins

The Marlins passed the gut check on Tuesday, bouncing back from Monday's embarrassment to score a 2-1 win behind little-used starter Brad Hand. Now they seek their third straight series win behind starter Nathan Eovaldi, who has struggled a bit lately but who has a 2.05 ERA in his last four road outings, is 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA in three career starts against the Diamondbacks. Meanwhile, Arizona starter Josh Collmenter allowed five runs and a season-high 11 hits over six-plus innings in last Friday's 5-2 loss at Atlanta.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 9

Andrew Lange 

Yankees at Indians
Play: Over 8

No question Brandon McCarthy has pitched better than his raw numbers but I'm not convinced a "fresh" start in New York is going to spark significant change. For starters, the move to the American League, particularly the East, is a significant step up in class. And with McCarthy being such a heavy groundball pitcher (55.3%) he needs a strong infield defense for support. He pitched behind a mediocre one in Arizona and it gets even worse in New York with the Yankees ranking near the bottom of a number infield defense metrics. Lastly, tonight's matchup vs. Cleveland is far from ideal with one of McCarthy's biggest issues this season being that of the left-handed bat. Even though he's been unlucky in a lot of respects, lefties are still hitting .323 vs. McCarthy. Josh Tomlin has been up and down this season and despite shutting out Seattle two starts ago his ERA is above 5.00 over his last six outings. Like McCarthy, Tomlin is racking up strikeouts at a decent rate but he also gives up a lot of hits and is prone to the home run ball (11 in 70 innings) due to his fly ball ways. Also note that rookie umpire Tom Woodring is behind the plate. He’s called balls and strikes only nine times but shows some very hitter friendly numbers: 7-2 O/U, 62% strikes, 8.1 BBs per nine, and a ultra-low 1.84 K-to-BB ratio.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 9

Chase Diamond

Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Chicago Cubs +1½ -150

This game features the 38-51 Cubs at the 48-42 Reds. No question Reds have been playing much better Baseball lately and the Cubs blew the second game of yesterday's double header in classic Cubs fashion. Dallas Beeler makes his second start for the Cubs today and he is the real deal. We are getting excellent value here on the Runline although I see the Cubs stealing this one. 74% of the public on the Reds and this line has moved 30 cents the other way.


Chase Diamond's Featured Package

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 9

Steve Rich

Houston vs. Texas
Play: Under 8

The Astros play their instate rivals again tonight after drubbing the slumping Rangers last night 8-3.  The Stros hit three leadoff homers last night and look for the 3 game sweep tonight.  All this after only winning two times in 19 attempts last year vs Texas.  Tonight is more about the pitching matchup,  Houston sends Dallas Keuchel to the mound to face the Rangers ace Yu Darvish.  Keuchel has a 6.50 ERA in his last three starts but, overall has been a pretty dependable pitcher for the Astros.  He is a very respectable 6-3 with a 2.89 ERA on the road.  Yu Darvish has been lights out at home winning six of eight contests with a 1.83 ERA.  In his eight starts at home, seven have gone under the total.  With the anemic bats of the Rangers and Darvish on the mound for them I like these teams to stay under the total tonight.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 9

Ray Monohan

Oakland A's vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Oakland A’s -110

This will be Jason Hammel’s first start with his new team and it will be in a big spot. The A’s are cooking right now but lets not minimize this road game against their Bay Area rivals. Throughout his career Hammel has mostly pitched just OK for teams that were not much better. This is by far his best season so you have to wonder if it is an outlier. I am not sure but either way I like this matchup with Matt Cain, who is struggling again this season. The Giants just don’t score much either.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 9

Tom Grassi

New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Indians    
Play: Cleveland Indians -1½ +175

The Books have the Indians as -120 favorites in tonight's matchup and after that strong performance against the Yankees last night (5-3 +150 Win), we are backing the Indians on the Run Line for a very solid +175 Payout!

Josh Tomlin is on the mound for the Indians and is coming off that very poor start against the Kansas city Royals where he gave up five earned runs in less then six innings and Cleveland ended up losing 7-1 as -110 home favorites.  Look for him to bounce back strong and have another performance like he did in his previous start against Seattle where he pitched nine innings and didn't give up a single run for a 5-0 shutout win!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 9

Simon Green

Phillies vs. Brewers
Play: Over 8.5

The Phillies and Brewers have seen 5 of their last 6 games go over the posted total. Yesterday saw these teams combine for 16 runs. Today Lohse takes the mound for Milwaukee and he was hit around by Philly back in April. A game which also saw Lohse walk 5 batters. Hernandez is on the hill for the Phillies and he has been awful of late going 1-6 with an ERA of 5.45 his last 7 starts. I like this one to sail over the total as well.

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