Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 8

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 8

River City Sharps

San Diego Padres -115

The Rockies had been real good at home, but they have hit a major slump and are a major league-worst 3-18 since June 16 after dropping seven of their last eight games. They face first time all star Tyson Ross (7-8, 2.93 ERA) and has recorded 111 strikeouts in 116 2/3 innings and a .228 opponent's batting average to rank among the NL's top 10 in both categories. The Padres are on a bit of a roll having won 6 of 8 and took the opener last night 6-1. They face Franklin Morales who has had struggles of his own, 0-3 with a 6.81 ERA over his last seven starts dating to May. These are not the same Rockies that were dominant at Coors. the Sharps say....

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 8

Top Shelf Picks

LA Dodgers/Detroit Under 8.5

I know both offenses generally perform well and Justin Verlander has had his struggles. This is why we are seeing such a high number here. Verlander has performed better his last 3 starts and Ryu's road numbers are incredible. I'm going with the Under today.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 8

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Atlanta -140 over NY METS: Usually when a team goes on a long winning streak and then lose one, that result is usually repeated in the next game and that is what happened to the Braves last night. In their last game vs Arizona, the Braves lost, which snapped a 9 game winning streak for them, so last night was a flat spot for them and sure enough the Mets took advantage with a 4-3 win. Tonight I look for the Braves to get that one back. Julio Teheran has been the Braves most consistent starter this year, coming in with an 8-5 record, a 2.29 ERA and an 0.95 WHIP on the year overall, while at night he has gone 7-3 with a 2.28 ERA. The Mets send out Jacob deGrom, who has not had a nice year, going 1-5 with a 3.77 ERA overall and 0-5 with a 4.99 ERA at night. He has a solid 2.49 ERA at home, but his mates have given him just 1.8 rpg worth of support at home, so he has an 0-3 mark here. Both offenses are bad, but still the Braves have the better one, while also enjoying a huge edge on the mound. The Braves lost last night's game in a flat spot for them, but they will bounce back tonight.

Oakland/ San Francisco Under 7 (-120): Hard to step in front of this A's team right now, so I wont, but I will go with the Under. Madison Bumgarner comes in with a skinny 1.32 ERA on the road and he has allowed just 1 ER in his last 3 starts away from home. Sonny Gray has pitched well at home, with a 3.20 ERA and has never faced the Giants, giving him an edge there. The Giants have averaged just 2.2 rpg over their last 10 games, while the A's have put up just 3.7 rpg over the same stretch. Pitcher's duel in Oakland tonight.

Arizona/ Miami Over 9 (-115): Vidal Nuno will be making his first start for the DBacks since being traded from the Yanks and I see him struggling just like he did for New York. Nuno has a 5.42 ERA on the year and Miami has scored 4.5 rpg in their last 10 games, so I can see at least 4 runs from them here. The DBacks have averaged a healthy 5.6 rpg in their last 5 games and they will be facing Brad Hand, who has a 6.21 ERA on the year and in 18 career starts he has a 5.38 ERA. Both of these offenses should get to the opposing starts for at the very least 4 runs each. I look for at least 12 runs to be scored in this one.

2 UNIT PLAY

DETROIT -110 over LA Dodgers I was looking at the Under in this game, but I will go with the Tigers instead. Very hard to ignore the fact that Verlander is 22-2 with a 2.56 ERA in 29 career interleague starts and the Dodgers have never seen him, which does give him the edge. He has been pitching better of late, with a 3.32 ERA in his last 3 starts and the Dodgers offense is still hit or miss. The Dodgers send out Ryu, who has been dominant on the road this year and has never faced the Tigers either, but still Detroit kills lefties at home and Ryu is just 2-2 with a 4.23 ERA in 6 career interleague starts. I know this is the year that many have been fading Verlander, but I feel he will rise up and continue his dominance over the National League in this one.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 8

Primetime Insiders

Minnesota +106

Tonight in Seattle we have the Twins taking on the Mariners. The Mariners took the first game of the series behind the great pitching of Iwakuma however the Mariners send a very overrated pitcher to the mound in Young tonight. Chris Young's numbers look good on the surface (8-4 record with an ERA just north of 3.) However, when you really dig down and look at his numbers they are mediocre at best and is due for a regression. It may not seem like this game is going to be the game he regresses as he is 5-1 at Safeco but our system is calling for a huge regression tonight similar to the last time Young faced the Twins giving up 5 runs and 10 hits. On the mound for the Twins is Phil Hughes who was torched by the Yankees where he gave up 7 earned runs but overall he has been solid on the mound for the Twins and is slightly underrated according to our system. Phil is very dependent on this above average fastball and cutter. This should bode well for Phil tonight as the Mariners are bottom of the barrel on hitting fastballs and even worse at hitting cutters. Chris Young is one of the most frequent fastball throwing pitchers in baseball throwing it on almost 70% of occasions. The Twins are one of the best fastball hitting teams in baseball ranking at #7. If he decides to throw more sliders this could give the Twins some trouble as they are just slightly below average against sliders. Overall, this is a great spot for the Twins.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 8

OC Dooley

Rockies +105

The key to this pick surrounds the MANAGER of Colorado as Walt Weiss is ready to place heavy emphasis on WINNING series so that his team can climb back into the National League West divisional race.  Way back on the 23rd day of May star thirdbaseman Nolan Arenado suffered a broken finger while attempting to steal.  Since that date the Rockies have placed ELEVEN different players on the disabled list which including a myriad of pitchers from their rotation.  The Rockies slide to the bottom of the standings has frustrated star Troy Tulowitzki who just went public that he would at least consider a trade.  One can argue he should channel his frustration as Colorado star outfielder Carlos Gonzalez is on his way back and last night during a rehabilitation stint swatted a homer and a double.  One of the Rockies myriad of injured starters Brett Anderson also looked good in rehabilitation and is close to returning.  If Colorado is going to win this particular “series” against another bottom feeder (San Diego) they need to take this evening’s game.  In LINEUP information I can tell you that the Padres cleanup stick is hitting just .239 for the season.  Meanwhile Colorado’s line has ALL STAR Charlie Blackmon (.298 average) out of the leadoff spot while Justin Morneau is in the #3 position. Morneau has the LEAD in fan balloting for the “final choice” on the National League All Star roster as the former MVP has a chance to return to a city (Minneapolis) next week where he began his career

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 8

Dave Essler

Pirates / Cardinals Over 7.5

Wanted to wait for lineups, but also want 7.5. Joe West behind the plate is a big deal. He's 14-3 to the over this season. I do expect the Pirates to get their fair share here as Martinez typically doesn't pitch past the 6th inning, and the Cardinals pen over the last week has a team ERA of 5.06. Worley can be an enigma, especially coming in more rested than other pitchers, but he still hasn't pitched past the 7th inning, and his two "stellar" games were against Miami and the Mets. Even the Cubs got him for three runs, and he's allowed a long ball in his last three starts. Add to that that with no Grilli and over the last week the Pirates pen has had an ERA of 7.54 (not a misprint) and there's just too many ways this gets there. It's warm and humid in St. Louis, and there's a slight helping breeze to RF, which is awesome for BOTH teams who have a ton of LH power. I really wanted to have Yadier in and the lineups aren't out yet (he has caught quite a few in a row), however, if they lose his bat except for a later PH, they also lose his defense, and the Pirates should be able to run, so it's a wash either way for me. The Cardinals gave up ten or more hits in all three games to the Fish before Wainright pitched last night, so there's not exactly cause for me to think that Martinez does much to help that. At night, for whatever reason, 60% of the Pirates games have gone over (day games not so much). And ironically, the highest percentage of "overs" the Cardinals have play in is against NL Central teams. The Cardinals have scored 5 or more runs in three of Martinez'a four starts. Worley hasn't pitched in Busch Stadium in at least three years, and in two starts against St. Louis gave up 15 hits in 11 innings, with a 313 BAA. In those same three years, on the road, Worley allowed ALL teams combined to hit .300 against him, with 172 hits in only 144 innings. Even mini-regression shouldn't matter. These teams should get after each other early in this one, especially after last night's game.

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