Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, June 18

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, June 18

Dave Price

Milwaukee Brewers -113

The Brewers have been rock solid on the road where they are 23-14 on the season and 4-0 in their last four.  The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, have struggled at home where they are 12-24 on the season.  It is also worth noting that Milwaukee is 9-1 in its last 10 road games versus clubs with a home winning percentage of less than 40%.  The Brewers have had their way with left-handed starters this season.  They have gone 12-4 against them while averaging 4.7 runs.  They enter this contest at 5-0 in their last five versus southpaw starters.  They'll have a good opportunity to get to Miley, who has a 4.71 ERA on the season, a 5.73 ERA at home and a 5.70 ERA in four starts versus Milwaukee.  The Diamondbacks are 1-5 in Miley's last six starts.  Garza is starting to round into shape with a 1.86 ERA over his last three starts.  He also boasts a 2.83 ERA in five starts versus the D-backs.  The Brewers are 6-2 in Garza's last eight starts as a favorite, and he's 3-0 in his last three starts versus Arizona.

Blade
useravatar
Online
208247 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, June 18

Dennis Macklin

Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees    
Play: New York Yankees -103

Mark Buehrle is having a monster season this year at 10-3 with a 2.28 ERA. With the Jays winners of eight of their last 10 with suitcase and a small dog to boot, your first inclination would be to grab the Toronto southpaw as fast as possible. Before you do, consider this ..... the New York Yankees have ALWAYS been Buehrle kryptonite. In fact, he's 1-10 LT vs. the Bombers with a 6.02 ERA and his respective teams are 1-15 in the games he has started against the pinstripes. The Yanks are starting to heat up a bit. You may not want the Yankees but unless you're clairvoyant .... you sure don't want the Jays.

Blade
useravatar
Online
208247 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, June 18

Bob Balfe

Seattle Mariners -130

Two great pitchers square off tonight in what should be a great pitchers duel. The bottom line to me in this game is nobody is better than Felix Hernandez and what are the odds the Padres who are scoring less than 2 runs a game over the last 7 are going to come out and hit tonight against of all guys this one? Take the Mariners.

Blade
useravatar
Online
208247 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, June 18

Wunderdog

Milwaukee @ Arizona
Pick: Arizona +105

The Milwaukee Brewers started the season at a sizzling 20-7, but have come back to the pack and have been just a single game over .500 since. Arizona started just the opposite, digging themselves a 5-18 hole through their first 23 games, but have come back to be just one game below .500 since, so these teams have been pretty even once you get past their opposing starts. Matt Garza has not given the Brewers much more than an average pitcher as he is just 4-4 with a 4.17 ERA on the season. Arizona has responded well after dropping the first two games of a series, as they are 8-3 in their last 11 after having done so. Miley has come up big against a winning team, leading the D-Backs to an 11-6 record against one. Take Arizona.

Blade
useravatar
Online
208247 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, June 18

Sam Martin

Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres
Prediction: Seattle Mariners

Two very good pitchers go at it tonight when Seattle's King Felix Hernandez goes up against San Diego's Andrew Cashner, and while these pitchers are basically a wash we have much more faith in Seattle's offense right now which should be the difference in the game.

Padres are sliding with three straight losses and have dropped eight of their last nine games overall. No surprise that the lack of offense is the culprit with SD scoring 1 or 0 runs in five of those eight losses. Seattle has scored 5+ runs in three straight, including dominant 5-1 and 6-1 wins at home vs. the Padres in the last two days.

Blade
useravatar
Online
208247 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, June 18

DAVE COKIN

CINCINNATI REDS AT PITTSBURGH PIRATES
PLAY: PITTSBURGH PIRATES -115

Alfrdedo Simon vs. Edinson Volquez tonight at PNC Park in Pittsburgh as the Reds and Pirates continue their three-game series. The Reds got the opener on Tuesday night, with the suddenly shaky Pitt bullpen again having problems down the stretch. That has to rate as a concern for me in breaking down tonight’s game, but I’m going to make a case for the Bucs getting the series even with a victory tonight.

Alfredo Simon has been a stunner this season. Simon basically landed in the Reds rotation only thanks to injuries, and the hope was that he could do enough to keep the Reds in games until he was eventually shuttled back to his typical bullpen role. The rest is now history, as they say. Simon is sitting at 9-3, with a sub-3 ERA and after getting what I’d term as lucky early on, most of his recent efforts have been legit.

Edinson Volquez was brought in to ostensibly fill the starting role vacated by AJ Burnett for the Pirates. This was a much maligned move over the winter. Burnett was off a very solid 2013 and Volquez was a guy who pretty much hadn’t been relevant since 2008 when he was a star on the rise for the Reds. It’s not like Volquez is pitching at an All-Star level for the Pirates this season, but he has certainly exceeded most projections, and I like the way he’s been throwing lately. The main obstacle for Volquez these last few years has been his rotten control and subsequent inability to maintain any reasonable pitch counts. The 2014 Volquez is limiting those free passes and in the process, he’s become a much more reliable commodity.

I can be a little stubborn at times, and I’m still of the belief there has to be a regression at some point for Simon. I can’t any longer attribute his success to simply good fortune, but I remain skeptical he can keep this up, as there’s nothing in his profile that says he should be doing this.  As for Volquez, he’s not close to being the sure thing category. But you know he wants to pitch well against his former team. Plus, his last outing vs. the Reds was a really tough luck loss. Volquez matched Johnny Cueto in what was a scoreless duel for six innings before the Reds broke through with a pair of somewhat cheap doubles in the seventh en route to a 4-1 win.

The offenses here are close to a wash, although both the Reds and Pirates fortunes with the bat are looking up. Getting Joey Votto back is an obvious plus for Cincy and the arrival of rookie sensation Gregory Polanco has been huge for the Pirates. I have the bullpens close as well, although the Bucs have to be a little concerned with Jason Grilli’s recent inconsistency.

My bottom line here is the betting line. I made the Pirates -125 here and the number has come cheaper than that. Basically, I’m backing my price here and going for what looks like a reasonable value advantage. I’ll side with the Pirates to get the win tonight.

Blade
useravatar
Online
208247 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, June 18

Jeff Alexander

Cleveland Indians +108

The Indians saw their 10-game home win streak come to an end yesterday, but I expect them to bounce back here.  Keep in mind they are 4-0 in their last 4 as a home dog.  LA's Wilson has experienced some woes on the road where he has a 4.79 ERA, and the Halos have dropped 5 of his 7 road starts this season, including each of his last 4.  Masterson is carrying a 3.92 ERA at home, and the Tribe is 4-1 in his last 5 starts as a home underdog.  Additionally, Masterson is 4-1 with an ERA of 2.35 in 10 starts versus the Angels.  His teams are 7-2 in his last 9 starts versus the Angels.

Blade
useravatar
Online
208247 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, June 18

Jack Jones

Cincinnati Reds +109

Now healthy with the recent return of their two most productive hitters in Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, the Cincinnati Reds have been on a roll.  They have won five of their last six games overall while scoring at least four runs in all five victories.

I look for the Reds to continue their surge with Alfredo Simon on the mound.  He has been a pleasant surprise this year, going 9-3 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.093 WHIP in 13 starts.  Simon has been at his best on the road, going 6-1 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in seven starts away from home.

Edinson Volquez has no business being the favorite in this contest tonight.  The right-hander is 57-57 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.477 WHIP in his 10 seasons in the big leagues.  Sure, he has been better this year at 4-5 with a 3.89 ERA, but he is overvalued due to his respectable start that will not last.

Simon is 11-1 (+11.1 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season.  Simon is 8-0 (+8.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  The Reds are 69-27 in their last 96 after allowing five runs or more in their previous game.  Cincinnati is 4-0 in its last four meetings in Pittsburgh.

Blade
useravatar
Online
208247 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, June 18

Steve Janus

Milwaukee Brewers -110

The Brewers have taken each of the first two games in the series and have done so behind a red-hot offense. Milwaukee has put 16 runs on 23 hits against the Diamondbacks and there's a good chance they will keep it rolling against lefty Wade Miley. For starters, Milwaukee is 12-4 against left-handed starters this season and Miley has really struggled at home. Miley is 1-4 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.409 WHIP over 7 home starts.

Key Trends - Brewers are 9-1 in their last 10 road games against a team that's won less than 40% of their home games, 22-8 in their last 30 during game 3 of a series and 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 5+ runs.

System - Any team (MILWAUKEE) - average offensive team (4.3 to 4.8 runs/game) against an average starter (ERA=4.20 to 5.20)-NL, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL) are 71-27 (72%) against the money line over the last 5 season!

Blade
useravatar
Online
208247 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, June 18

Stephen Nover

Brewers / Diamondbacks Over 9

I'm not fond of either starting pitcher, Matt Garza, nor lefty Wade Miley. Arizona has one of the worst bullpens in the National League and Milwaukee's relief crew has regressed. But let's get back to the starting pitchers. Garza is the weakest of Milwaukee's starting pitchers. He's become more a of a journeyman, innings-eater than star. Garza has allowed three or more earned runs in eight of his last nine starts. His ERA on the road this year is 6.21. I like Miley even less especially going against the right-handed dominated Brewers lineup that expects to have Carlos Gomez back today. Miley has yielded three or more earned runs in eight of his last 10 starts. The Brewers have an MLB-best .750 winning percentage against lefties. Miley has been at his worst at hitter-friendly Chase Field going 1-5 with a 5.69 ERA. His only quality starts at home have been against soft-hitting San Diego and Atlanta. He's surrendered six homers in his last three starts. Milwaukee ranks third in the NL with 74 home runs. Miley has a 5.70 career ERA in four starts against the Brewers. Milwaukee has been swinging hot bats scoring at least four runs in 18 of its last 22 games, including the past six. The over is 16-5-1 during this span in Brewer games.


Stephen Nover's Featured Package

Blade
useravatar
Online
208247 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, June 18

Greg Shaker

NY Yankees -108

Probably the final play for Wednesday. Everything pretty much equal with the way these starters have performed but the Jays are not hitting right now, the Yankees are, especially verses southpaws and they have made the Jays starter miserable throughout his career. How about Buehrle being 1-10 in 16 appearances verses NYY with an ERA Over 6? Jays are struggling to win games right now and that makes this a Keen Number for us. 2% Play.

Blade
useravatar
Online
208247 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, June 18

Tony George

Milwaukee vs. Arizona
Play: Milwaukee -114

It seemed like a set up last night and Milwaukee won as an underdog and I felt a trap line was in play but none the less put out the Brewers on my national Radio Show on Yahoo Sports and they cashed and have taken 2 straight from the D backs.  The line tonight is a manageable -114 on the Brew Crew with Matt Garza on the hill who has pitched well as of late, a 1.86 ERA in his last 3 starts over 19 innings of work.

I use somewhat of a power rating difference between 2 teams in MLB and my rating here is Milwaukee should be -165 in this game so we are catching a soft line here.  The reason for the soft line is the fact Milwaukee in their last 5 games have had major issues against southpaws, and Wiley tonight is a lefty but his ERA is approaching 5 in his last 3 starts and he is a hittable lefty and the bull pen ERA of Arizona is an issue late in games as well.  The D Backs have yielded 16 runs the past 2 nights to Milwaukee and will do so tonight as well, and while this may be a lower scoring game, every stat advantage including starting pitching, offense, defense, bullpen, slugging power all favor the Brewers who have the 3rd best record in baseball and show little sign of fading back to the pack anytime soon.

Blade
useravatar
Online
208247 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, June 18

Stephen Nover

Blue Jays at Yankees
Play: Yankees -103

Chase Whitley is pitching well for the Yankees. He's been a nice surprise. New York is 5-1 in his last 6 starts. Mark Buehrle is on a cold spell and has a poor history against the Yankees with a 1-10 mark in 16 career starts and 6.02 ERA. The Yankees have dominated the Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium going 23-2 in the last 25 meetings there.


Stephen Nover's Featured Package

Blade
useravatar
Online
208247 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, June 18

Against the Number

Twins / Red Sox Under 9

Kyle Gibson hasn’t given up a run in his last 2 starts. John Lackey ranks 27th overall in ATN Pitcher Rating with an ERA of 3.24 and 50% HQS%. Neither team is incredibly hot offensively right now. In the 2 games played in this series a combined 4 runs have been scored. Sure, that could all change today but 9 runs is high enough to play the under.


Rangers / A’s Over 7.5

The A’s have scored 28 runs over the last 3 games; the Rangers, 21. In Sonny Gray’s last 7 starts, the total has hit 7 or more each time. Nick Tepesch has started 6 games this season and has an ERA of 3.94 and a WHIP of 1.38. Oakland averages 5.2 runs per game. We are just playing the numbers and the numbers say over.

Blade
useravatar
Online
208247 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, June 18

Larry Ness

Houston Astros at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Washington Nationals

Washington ended a season high-tying four-game slide with Tuesday's 6-5 win over Houston to open this two-game set in the nation's capital. The victory included four doubles among their nine hits after the Nationals had only one of their 21 hits go for extra bases over the previous four games, batting .168 while scoring four runs. The victory leaves the 36-33 Nats on top of the NL East by one-half game over Atlanta and Miami. They've won 11 of 12 meetings with the Astros, including seven straight for their longest winning streak in the all-time series.

Gio Gonzalez returns from the DL and the Nats are hoping he can keep them rolling. Gonzalez made his big league debut with Oakland in 2008 and went 38-32 with a 3.93 ERA over four seasons there, making the All-Star team in 2011. In December of that year, the left-hander was dealt to Washington as part of a six-player deal that included current Athletics Derek Norris and Tommy Milone. I NEVER understood it. Anyway, the Nats are sure glad the A's made that deal. While Strasburg garners most of the headlines among Washington starters, Gonzalez has been the biggest on-the-field producer. He was 21-8 (2.89) in 2012, leading all MLB starters against the moneyline, going 24-8 (plus-$1,476). Like the Nats as a team, his 2013 season was a disappointment at 11-8 (3.36) but he still allowed just 169 hits in 195.2 IP while posting a KW ratio of 192-76 (Nats were 19-13 in his starts, plus-$333).

Gonzalez has had a tough season in 2014 and returns to the mound for the first time since going on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation back on May 18. He was pretty bad in his two starts before going on the DL, allowing 12 ERs on 16 hits (three HRs) in just 7.1 innings, for a 14.73 ERA. That somewhat skewers his season record which stands at 3-4 with a 4.62 ERA over nine starts (team is 5-4). However, he faces an Houston team that he is 2-0 against in three career starts (Nats are 3-0), throwing one complete game and posting a 2.45 ERA. Yes, it?s a small sample size but I?ll also note that the Astros are 0-5 (while averaging just 2.6 RPG) vs left-handed starters in road night games in 2014. However, that stat fits nicely with this one, which says that the Astros are batting .214 while averaging 2.4 runs over their last seven games against Washington!

Scott Feldman gets the nod for Houston and the journeyman checks in with a 3-4 record and a 3.98 ERA in 11 starts in 2014 (team is 5-6). He owns a 2.55 ERA in five road starts but he's just 1-2 (team is 1-4) since he's been backed by two or less runs in FOUR of those outings. Not much points to a Houston win, as long has Gonzalez is healthy and these days, no one rushes a pitcher back from the DL, so expect Gonzalez to be just fine.

Blade
useravatar
Online
208247 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, June 18

Rocketman

Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Indians    
Play: Los Angeles Angels -113

The LA Angels travel to Cleveland to take on the Indians on Wednesday night.  LA Angels are 38-32 overall this year while Cleveland comes in with a 36-36 overall record on the season.  LA Angels are 22-7 this year when the total is 8 to 8 1/2.  LA Angels are 8-2 this year on the road when the total is 8 to 8 1/2.  Cleveland has struggled against left handed starters going 8-15 this season batting only .240.  Cleveland is scoring only 2.7 runs per game their past seven games overall where they have a poor .220 team batting average.  Teams are scoring 5 runs per game against Cleveland the past 7 games allowing a .303 overall team batting average.  CJ Wilson is 7-6 with a 3.50 ERA overall this year.  Justin Masterson is 4-5 with a 5.05 ERA overall this year.  LA Angels have won 4 out of 5 meetings this year.  CJ Wilson is 4-2 with a 2.50 ERA overall vs Cleveland in his career.  We'll recommend a small play on the LA Angels tonight! 


Rocky Atkinson's Featured Package

Blade
useravatar
Online
208247 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, June 18

Teddy Covers

Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Over

At this stage of the campaign, the betting markets have more than enough data to concentrate on full-season numbers.  But the full season numbers for both Cincinnati and Pittsburgh offensively don’t tell the story of the appropriate current form of these two lineups today. 

That leaves legitimate value betting the Over on ‘baseline’ totals for both squads; two teams that are consistently lined in the same 7 or 7.5 range where we find them today.

The Reds couldn’t hit their way out of a wet paper bag for the better part of the first two months of the season.  Their aggregate numbers show Cinci ranked #29 out of 30 MLB teams in runs scored this year – only the Padres have gotten less production from their lineup.  But with Joey Votto off the DL, the Reds bats have come to life, pounding out 36 runs in their last six games.   As a team, Cinci hit .223 with Votto sidelined, but since his return, they’re hitting .294!

It’s a similar story with the Pirates, who have pounded out 31 runs in their last six contests, a noteable improvement from their season long average of slightly less than four runs per game.  Last year’s MVP, Andrew McCutchen, has been on a real tear of late, as is Starling Marte.  Along with Ike Davis and Russell Martin in the middle of the order, the Pirates lineup packs some punch right now.

Neither starter is an ace, or anything close.  Cinci’a Alfredo Simon is a poster child for expected regression, with a 4.49 FIP compared to his 2.95 ERA.  Pittsburgh’s Edison Volquez isn’t eating up innings anymore, notching only four outs after the sixth inning since April.  Volquez has seen his strikeout numbers go way down; a ‘leading indicator’ sign of decline.

Behind the starters, both bullpens were used extensively in last night’s wild game – neither pen is ‘fresh’ tonight.  Put it all together and we can expect plenty of crooked numbers on the scoreboard!

Blade
useravatar
Online
208247 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, June 18

Bryan Power

Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Cincinnati

I won w/ the Reds yday as they had Johnny Cueto starting. Once again, I think they'll have a big edge in the starting pitching department tonight w/ Alfredo Simon....

Simon has a 10-3 TSR w/ a 2.95 ERA & 1.093 WHIP this year and the team has won each of his last three starts.  Last Thursday saw him pitch 8 full innings and all seven hits he allowed were singles.  In seven road starts this year, he is 6-1 w/ a 2.44 ERA.  That includes a win here in Pittsburgh back in April.

Cincinnati has done quite well for itself this year vs. their NL Central rivals, beating the Pirates six of eight times, including four in a row here at PNC Park.

A healthy Joey Votto returning to the lineup has done wonder for the Reds offense as they are averaging over 5.0 rpg w/ a .294 BA in the seven games since he's been back.

Blade
useravatar
Online
208247 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, June 18

Harry Bondi

PITTSBURGH (-120) over Cincinnati

Sure, there looks like a lot of easy "sure things" on the board Wednesday like backing Cincinnati and Alfredo Simon who looks to become the first National League pitcher to reach 10 wins tonight in Pittsburgh where he is even listed as an underdog against the Pirates erratic starter Edison Volquez. But going inside the numbers we find that Volquez has won 3 of his last 4 starts and is coming off his finest outing of the season when he blanked the Chicago Cubs 4-0 last Friday. Regular visitors to our FREE WINNER page also know we love to go against the public and 67% of the best in Las Vegas on this game are on the Reds. We won't have many with us on this play but that will amke it easier to cash our winning ticket!

Blade
useravatar
Online
208247 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, June 18

OC Dooley

Angels -120

It is interesting that Los Angeles has been cast as the favorite since going into last night Cleveland was riding a “9-0” WINNING tear in front of their HOME fans.  That winning streak came to an end in part due to a late LINEUP change as the host Indians scratched the same Michael Brantley who in the past week had an average (.528) that was off the charts and earned him an American League “Player of the Week” award.  It was a couple of nights ago when Brantley sliding into secondbase collided with an opposing player in both the head-and-neck area.  This is the same type of CONCUSSION situation that in essence ruined the career of former Minnesota star and league MVP Justin Morneau who is now a member of the Rockies roster.  I can confirm that Brantley as a precaution is once again NOT in the Cleveland starting lineup which gives a decided edge to the visiting Angels who have baseball’s best player.  Since the month of May (5/20 to be exact) Mike Trout is hitting above .400 at the plate and is being showcased tonight on ESPN2

Blade
useravatar
Online
208247 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Board Info

Board Stats:
 
Total Topics:
44350
Total Polls:
2
Total Posts:
275623
Average Posts Per Hour:
3.0
User Info:
 
Total Users:
3464
Newest User:
Tee
Members Online:
1
Guests Online:
2263

Online: 
Blade

Forum Legend:

 Topic
 New
 Locked
 Sticky
 Active
 New/Locked
 Sticky/Locked

Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Contact Us | Advertising | 888-99-SPREAD

THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE – If you think you have a gambling problem click here.

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Individual users are responsible for the laws regarding accessing gambling information from their jurisdictions. Many countries around the world prohibit gambling, please check the laws in your location. Any use of this information that may violate any federal, state, local or international law is strictly prohibited.

Copyright: The information contained on TheSpread.com website is protected by international copyright and may not be reproduced, or redistributed in any way without expressed written consent.

About: TheSpread.com is the largest sports betting news site in the United States. We provide point spread news, odds, statistics and information to over 199 countries around the world each year. Our coverage includes all North American College and Professional Sports as well as entertainment, political and proposition wagering news.

©1999-2013 TheSpread.com