NBA Betting News and Notes Sunday, June 15

NBA Betting News and Notes Sunday, June 15

NBA Playoffs

Spurs are first team since '77 Blazers to win consecutive Finals games by 19+ points; they can win fifth NBA title tonight. SA shot 59%/57% in the two games in Miami; they're 8-1 vs spread in last nine home games. Heat is 5-4 on road in playoffs. Home team lost three of four games in this series. Nine of last 13 Miami games went over total; eight of last twelve San Antonio games stayed under. Miami was -22 in 50:26 that Lebron James sat out in first four games. Spurs scored 110-111-107 points in their three series wins, 96 in their loss.

Over is 50-38 in playoffs this season.
Favorites are 35-53 in playoffs this season, 1-3 in this series.

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Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Sunday, June 15

NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Miami at San Antonio

Off two impressive 19 and 21 point victories in Heats' back yard shooting an incredible 58.2% from the field, 43.9% from three-point land and hitting 77.2% from the free throw line the Spurs look primed to win Game 5 Sunday in Alamo City along with their fifth NBA championship. The Spurs executing at such a high level, Miami unable find answers, Bovada looks for San Antonio to finish off Miami Sunday night as they have installed Spurs as whopping 6-point favorites. Handing LeBron James and the Champs a boat load of points is a risky proposition, though in this case the amount of supporting data in favor of San Antonio makes it much less risky. Duncan and company shredding Heat for 100 or more points in three of four meetings along with holding Heat under the century mark in all four games sets the table. Spurs have cashed 6-of-8 as home chalk of 6.5 or less off a double digit post season victory. Spurs take to the floor 44-24 ATS this season netting 100 or more points, 23-16 ATS as home chalk after netting 100 or more the previous game, 25-8 ATS as a home favorite holding opponents to 100 or less points. On the other side, Heat enter 3-17-1 ATS on foreign hardwood when giving up 100 PPG, 8-19 ATS on the road scoring 100 or

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Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Sunday, June 15

Heat try to stay alive
By Sportsbook.ag

Miami (67-34) at San Antonio (77-27)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: San Antonio -6, Total: 195

The NBA Finals head back to Texas on Sunday as the Spurs look to close out the series in five games and get a revenge victory over the Heat after last year’s upsetting loss.

This series has been absolutely dominated by San Antonio, which is coming off yet another big win in Game 4. The club breezed to victory by a score of 107-86 as five-point underdogs in Miami while shooting an incredible 57% from the field; marking the third time in this series that the team has shot that well. As usual, the Spurs were getting great shots with tremendous ball movement, finishing with 25 assists in the game while absolutely dominating the boards as they outrebounded the Heat 44-27. Miami has actually had a few great shooting performances of their own in this series, hitting better than 51% of its field goals in both Games 2 & 3, but has just seemed outmatched, as LeBron James is the only player on the team with consistent numbers throughout the NBA Finals.

Going back on the road does not bode well for the Heat either as they are just 27-23 SU (24-24 ATS) in away games over the entire season. Meanwhile, San Antonio probably feels like it has a lock on this series since the club is an incredible 42-11 SU (28-25 ATS) when playing at home while going 10-2 SU (8-4 ATS) there in the playoffs.

These two clubs have obviously had a storied matchup over the past few seasons against each other and Miami holds a slight 9-7 SU (7-9 ATS) edge when facing the Spurs over the past three seasons. In that time, San Antonio is 4-3 (SU and ATS) in its home games.
   
Some trends that bettors may want to take notice of is that the Heat are 9-0 ATS in road games after a game with 35 or fewer rebounds over the past two seasons while the Spurs are 22-10 ATS (69%) in the past two seasons after a game where they made at least 55% FG.

Fatigue will likely be the only type of concern that needs to be watched in this contest, as neither side is nursing any significant injuries for this important game.

The Heat have seen their scoring output drop in the playoffs (97.8 PPG) while they have put up just 92.8 PPG in the NBA Finals through four games. Their defense has also been much worse in this series as they are allowing the Spurs to drop 106.0 PPG on them, which is much greater than the 95.1 PPG (48% FG) allowed over the entire postseason.

SF LeBron James (27.5 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 3.8 APG, 2.5 SPG in series) scored a team-high 28 points in Thursday’s loss while failing to record a steal for the first time in six games. He has made 60% of his shots in the NBA Finals while also hitting an incredible 11-of-18 threes.

SG Dwyane Wade (16.3 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 3.0 APG, 2.0 SPG in series) played very poorly in Game 4, shooting just 3-for-13 from the field with 10 points while adding four assists and four steals. The game was his worst shooting performance of the postseason, and he has also really struggled with ball security in this series as he has turned it over 3.8 times per game.

C Chris Bosh (14.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG in finals) averaged 18.0 PPG in the two games on the road in this series but netted just 10.5 PPG in the two home contests while grabbing just seven total rebounds. He has also been non-existent on the defense side of the ball with just one block in the series after averaging 1.3 BPG in the playoff games before the finals.

SG Ray Allen (11.0 PPG in series) has made 8-of-19 (42%) threes in this series but has scored double-digit points just twice.

The Spurs have been on an absolute tear through these playoffs, hitting 49% of their shots while averaging 106.5 PPG. Their defense has been great as well, giving up just 97.5 PPG (45% FG) to their opponents.

PF Tim Duncan (15.8 PPG, 10.5 RPG in series) had 10 points and 11 boards in Thursday’s victory and now has three double-doubles in the first four games of the NBA Finals. He was tremendous in the first two contests of this series when playing at home, averaging 19.5 PPG and 12.5 RPG.

PG Tony Parker (18.5 PPG, 5.3 APG, 1.0 SPG in finals) had 19 points on 8-of-15 shooting in Game 4 while recording a series-low two assists. He’s been amazingly consistent over these four games and has actually shot 8-for-15 from the field in three games against the Heat so far while making just 13-of-18 from the charity stripe in the series.

SF Kawhi Leonard (16.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.8 SPG, 1.3 SPG in finals) was the difference maker in the two games at Miami, leading the team in scoring in both wins while averaging 24.5 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 2.5 BPG and 2.5 SPG. He has done well shooting from all areas of the floor, making 23-of-39 (59%) shots overall and 8-of-15 from behind the arc.

SG Manu Ginobili (13.3 PPG, 4.5 APG, 1.3 SPG in finals) had only seven points in Thursday’s victory, but was great in the two games at home (17.5 PPG, 7.5 APG) to start this series.


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Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Sunday, June 15

Game 5 - Heat at Spurs
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

San Antonio’s road to redemption is nearly complete as the Spurs are one victory from claiming the fifth title in franchise history. Following a pair of wins in South Florida where the Spurs shot lights out, the defending Western Conference champions return to the AT&T Center on Sunday night to host a Heat squad that may be nearing the end of their dynasty.

With the NBA Finals tied at 1-1, the Spurs connected on 75% of its shots from the floor in the first half of Game 3 and built a 25-point lead en route to a 111-92 triumph over the Heat as four-point underdogs. The Spurs didn’t skip a beat in Thursday’s Game 4, jumping out to a 55-36 halftime advantage as San Antonio rolled to a 107-86 victory to cash as five-point ‘dogs. Gregg Popovich’s team improved to 12-4 ATS the last 16 games in the postseason, including three straight wins and covers on the highway.

It seemed impossible for the Spurs to repeat their shooting effort from Game 3, but San Antonio wasn’t too far off in Game 4 by knocking down 57% of its attempts from the floor. Every game in this series San Antonio has relied on someone different to carry load, but Kawhi Leonard put up two of the best efforts in his career in Miami by scoring 29 points in Game 3 and a team-high 20 points and 14 rebounds in Game 4. Boris Diaw was inserted into the starting lineup for the first time in the series on Thursday and nearly put up a triple-double with eight points, nine rebounds, and nine assists.

The Heat’s run at a three-peat looks to be over barring a miracle comeback, as Miami isn’t receiving the balanced scoring and contributions that San Antonio is getting right now. Dwyane Wade captured Finals MVP when the Heat won their first title in 2006, but the Miami guard is coming off one of the worst playoff performances in his career by shooting just 3-of-13 from the floor for 10 points. LeBron James can carry the load only so much, putting up 19 points in the third quarter of Game 4 and scored a game-high 28 points. James is averaging 27 points per game and is probably the Most Valuable Player in this series, as the best thing for Miami is to hit the road after two poor performances at American Airlines Arena.

Miami’s 13-game winning streak in the playoffs off a loss came to a close on Thursday, but the Heat is back in the underdog role in Game 5. Erik Spoelstra’s club has won and covered just once in three tries as a ‘dog this postseason, while going 2-0 SU/ATS since 2012 when receiving points off a defeat in the playoffs (which includes a win Game 2 of this series against San Antonio).

VegasInsider.com’s Chris David says on Sunday night that Miami does have a tall mountain to climb, “Based on the first four games, especially the last two, it’s hard to make an argument for Miami in Game 5 even though the point-spread does appear to be a tad inflated. However, when San Antonio wins on the hardwood it wins at the betting counter, rather easily too. In their 15 postseason wins, the first three came by 5, 4 and 6 points to the Mavericks. In the last 12 victories, every game was decided by double digits.”

Rallying from a 3-1 deficit will be tough for the Heat, as David believes there is another approach to possibly making money with Miami, “There have been 31 teams who have trailed 3-1 in the NBA Finals and amongst them, only 15 have managed to force a Game 6 but there is a caveat for bettors. Nine of those teams were playing at home in Game 5 and now that the series is back to a 2-2-1-1-1 format, San Antonio is hosting the fifth encounter. I don’t believe the Heat are dead just yet and I feel the adjusted series price on the Heat at 9/1 odds is very generous, especially when you’re backing the best player in the world. Small risk, big reward in my opinion!”

The biggest issue with Miami so far in this series is not being able to keep up with San Antonio’s offense. David breaks down things from the totals perspective, “The ‘under’ cashed in Game 4 but one more 3-pointer by Miami at the end almost cost you. San Antonio’s hot-shooting has balanced out the slow pace by both clubs and the Heat’s offense has been, by their standards, poor. I believe the best look on Sunday will be the ‘under’ in Miami’s team total, which is hovering around 95 points. The most they scored in this series is 96 and if you believe the Heat can win, it will have to be with their defense.”

Leonard is currently the favorite to claim the MVP, as oddsmakers at Sportsbook.ag have made the former San Diego State standout an overwhelming 5/12 (Bet $100 to win $41) favorite to win the NBA Finals Most Valuable Player. David says this award though is up for grabs, depending on what happens on Sunday, “Leonard has been great the last two games but unless he blows up again in Game 5, I believe this award will go to Tim Duncan, who is a media favorite. Bettors can get down on a solid 8/5 (Bet $100 to win $160) price for Duncan. And if you believe the Heat can rally and win a couple more games, James at 10/1 odds looks very appealing.”

Sportsbook.ag MVP Odds
Kawhi Leonard, Spurs (5/12)
Tim Duncan, Spurs (8/5)
Tony Parker, Spurs (5/1)
LeBron James, Heat (10/1)
Boris Diaw, Spurs (20/1)
Manu Ginobili, Spurs (50/1)
Danny Green, Spurs (75/1)
Dwyane Wade, Heat (100/1)
Chris Bosh, Heat (150/1)

The Spurs are currently listed as six-point favorites on Sunday night, while the total is set at 195½. Game 5 tips off at 8:00 PM EST and can be seen on ABC.

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Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Sunday, June 15

Game of the Day: Heat at Spurs
By Covers.com

Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs (-6, 196)

The San Antonio Spurs are one victory away from their fifth NBA title and can claim their first championship since 2007 when they host the Miami Heat in Sunday’s Game 5. San Antonio rolled to back-to-back dominating wins in Miami to take a 3-1 series lead and is in good shape when you consider no NBA team has ever recovered from that deficit in NBA Finals play. The Spurs’ three victories are by an average of 18.3 points.

Heat standout LeBron James was among the stunned players over how easily San Antonio dismantled Miami the past two games. “I mean, they smashed us,” James told reporters. “Two straight home games, got off to awful starts. They came in and were much better than us in these two games. It’s just that simple.” Spurs veteran Tim Duncan expects a fierce effort from the Heat as San Antonio attempts to avenge last season’s finals loss to the Heat. “We’re going to use our home court and we’re going to come with the same focus that we did in these last two games, and hopefully close it out at home,” Duncan told reporters.

LINE HISTORY: The Spurs opened at -5 before moving to -5.5 and now currently sit at -6. The total opened at 197 before being bet down to 195.5.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Heat hadn't lost back-to-back games in the postseason since 2012, but that string of excellence came to an abrupt halt in Game 4. Miami's role players are "M.I.A.", the Spurs' incredible depth has played a big part in their lop-sided 3-1 lead. I said after Game 2 that this series would be decided by the head coaches. Eric Spolestra is getting out-maneuvered by Gregg Popovich, who with one more coaching masterpiece will cement his legacy as one of the greatest in the history of the league." Covers Expert Nick Parsons.

ABOUT THE HEAT: James is averaging 27.5 points in the series and is very much aware that no team has ever recovered from a 3-1 deficit to win the NBA Finals. He asserts that the players only have themselves to blame for the hole Miami finds itself in but doesn’t want to look past Sunday and ponder the historical aspect. “It’s never been done before but we’re still a confident bunch, even though our heads are lowered down right now,” James told reporters. “Of course, being down 3-1 and losing two straight games at home, that’s just human nature. But we’ve still got to go out and play on Sunday.”

ABOUT THE SPURS: Small forward Kawhi Leonard produced back-to-back stellar efforts in Miami – averaging 24.5 points and nine rebounds in the two games – but versatile Boris Diaw has also been a valuable performer since San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich inserted him into the starting lineup for Game 3. Diaw had a solid all-around game with eight points, nine rebounds and nine assists in Game 4 and is averaging 6.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and 5.8 assists in the series. “He knows what’s going on most all the time,” Popovich told reporters. “At the offensive end he’s a passer. He understands mismatches. He knows time and score. At the defensive end, he knows when to help. He’s active. So he just helps the whole team have a better IQ, I think.”

TRENDS:

*Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 NBA Championship games.
*Spurs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win.
*Under is 8-3 in Heat last 11 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
*Under is 26-12 in the last 38 meetings.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Fifty-four percent of Covers users are backing the Heat +6.

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