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NBA Betting News and Notes Thursday, June 12

NBA Betting News and Notes Thursday, June 12

NBA Playoffs

Spurs scored 41 points in first quarter, 71 in first half Tuesday; their eFG% was over 100% in first quarter, second time they've done that in this series. Home team won 12 of last 17 series games, but lost two of three in this series; Spurs lost seven of last nine visits here. Nine of last 12 Miami games went over total; seven of last eleven San Antonio games stayed under. Spurs are just 4-5 on road in playoffs, 3-2 vs spread when getting points. Heat is 8-1 SU at home in playoffs, 6-3 vs spread. Miami was -22 in 40:05 that Lebron James sat out in first three games. Spurs scored 110-111 points in their two wins, 96 in their loss.

Over is 50-37 in playoffs this season.
Favorites are 35-52 in playoffs this season.

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Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Thursday, June 12

Game of the Day: Spurs at Heat

San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat (-5.5, 197)

Spurs lead series 2-1

The San Antonio Spurs are coming off an epic performance and look to claim a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals when they visit the Miami Heat on Thursday. San Antonio set an NBA Finals record by shooting 75.8 percent from the field in the first half and led by as many as 25 points while rolling to a 111-92 victory in Tuesday’s Game 3. Spurs forward Kawhi Leonard broke out of his funk by scoring a career-best 29 points.

Miami forward LeBron James had 22 points but 14 of them came in the first quarter before Leonard clamped down on him on the defensive end. Leonard scored 16 points on 5-of-5 shooting in the opening period as San Antonio scored 41 points and had 71 at the half against the shell-shocked Heat. “One thing about (the Spurs), if you make a mistake, they’re going to make you pay,” James said afterward. “And they made us pay more often than not.” Game 4 is doubly important to the Heat with the NBA switching from a 2-3-2 series format to a 2-2-1-1-1 as a second straight Spurs victory in Miami would put San Antonio in position to clinch the series at home in Sunday’s Game 5.

LINE HISTORY: The Heat opened at -5.5, quickly dropped to -5 and have since gone back up to -5.5. The total opened at 198 but has slowly dipped to 197.

ABOUT THE SPURS: Leonard was a huge disappointment while averaging just nine points and two rebounds over the first two games before erupting for the best performance of his three-year career. He made 10-of-13 field-goal attempts and also frustrated James over the final three quarters. Leonard set the tone for the Spurs with the strong first quarter showing as he cast aside the tentativeness he displayed over the first two games. “I just was in attack mode,” Leonard told reporters afterward. “Trying to be aggressive early. Just knocking down a couple of shots got me going. My teammates found me. They did a good job of getting me involved.”

ABOUT THE HEAT: Starting point guard Mario Chalmers has been a complete non-factor in the series and missed all five of his field-goal attempts while scoring just two points in Game 3. Chalmers is averaging just 3.3 points on 3-of-12 shooting and has the same number of turnovers as assists (nine apiece) as Miami is getting badly outplayed at the point-guard position. “Still at the drawing board,” Chalmers said after Game 3 in response to questions about his poor play. “Everybody else is doing their job, and it’s me that’s not helping the team right now. And I don’t want to be that guy. I don’t know what it is right now but I have to figure it out.”


* Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 following a double-digit loss at home.
* Spurs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.
* Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. Western Conference.
* Over is 5-0 in Miami's last five home games.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-nine percent of wagers on consensus on the Spurs.

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Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Thursday, June 12

Game 4 - Spurs at Heat
By Kevin Rogers

In the last 10 NBA Finals games between the Spurs and Heat, the two teams won five times each. After Miami captured the championship last summer in seven games, San Antonio is halfway to the franchise’s fifth title after putting on a historic shooting display in the first half of Tuesday’s Game 3 rout of Miami.

The Spurs knocked down 19 of their first 21 shots, while shooting a scorching 75% from the floor in the first half of a 111-92 rout of Miami to cash outright as four-point underdogs. San Antonio put up 71 points in the first 24 minutes, while building a 25-point lead (55-30) in the second quarter. The Heat came all the way back to trim the deficit to seven points in the third (81-74), but Marco Belinelli’s three-pointer stopped a 10-0 Miami run to end any chance of a Heat victory.

San Antonio handed Miami its first home loss of the postseason and snapped the Heat’s 11-game playoff winning streak at the American Airlines Arena dating back to last summer’s Game 1 of the NBA Finals. The keys for the Spurs in Game 3 were Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green, who combined to shoot 17-of-21 from the floor for 44 points, including a career playoff-high 29 points for Leonard. San Antonio finished with 59% shooting from field and still won by 19 points in spite of Miami connecting on 51% of its shots.

LeBron James and Dwyane Wade each scored 22 points for the Heat in Game 3, while Chris Bosh attempted only four shots after scoring 18 points in each of the first two contests in this series. Miami has done a terrific job of bouncing back off a loss in the playoffs since 2012, posting a 13-0 SU and 12-1 ATS record in this situation the last 13 tries. In this postseason, the Heat has won and covered all four times off a loss, including in Game 2 at San Antonio.’s Chris David breaks down this profitable trend, “If you’ve been betting the NBA playoffs the past couple years, then you’re well aware of Miami’s production off a loss. It’s an amazing feat and something that shouldn’t be overlooked. What’s also impressive about this Heat group is that they never trailed 3-1 in a series since they formed their elite alliance in 2010. While these angles are very strong, I believe the public is buying into it too much and it’s evident based on the line in Game 4.”

The oddsmakers are testing this theory that Miami will rebound on Thursday, as David believes this number is a tad rich, “I’m scratching my head on this line and didn’t expect Miami to open as a 5-point favorite. This point-spread is comparable to last year’s Finals when the Heat were favored by 5, 6, 6½ and 5½ points. The Game 1 in this series was Miami +4½, which was a fair line considering San Antonio has improved and Miami isn’t as good. The betting public is already expecting Miami to rebound and the number has been bet up to 5½ points at most shops. I’m not sure what series everybody is watching but last time I checked San Antonio has won by double digits in both its victories while the Heat earned a two-point decision. Even if you expect the Heat to win Game 5, I’d be hesitant to lay that many points.”

The series price has swung back and forth after each of the first three games, as San Antonio is listed as a -225 favorite to win the title (Bet $225 to win $100). The Heat are actually in a potentially profitable spot in spite of the Game 3 loss, listed as a +185 underdog (Bet $100 to win $185) to win three of the next four games.

At the beginning of the series, James was the favorite to win the MVP, but San Antonio’s Tim Duncan is currently a 6/5 (+120) favorite to capture the series MVP, according to James has slipped to 8/5 odds (+160) to win his third Finals MVP, while Tony Parker has jumped to 7/2 odds (+350) to capture his second career Finals MVP. Following Leonard’s impressive Game 3 effort, the Spurs’ swingman is up to 9/1 (+900) to win the award.

From the totals standpoint, which saw the ‘over’ hit in Game 3, David says that this has not been a cakewalk when betting totals in this series, “Including Game 3, betting the totals in this series have been sweatshops. Even though the ‘over’ cashed on Tuesday, it did get dicey at the end. And the same thing can be said for bettors who had the ‘under’ in Game 3. The pace hasn’t been fast by any means but you do have two teams that can make shots from 3-point land and Tuesday’s outcome was certainly helped with 44 combined points from the free throw line. I do believe one thing that will play a factor on Thursday is fatigue with both teams playing their third game in five nights. Even knowing that, it’s hard to go against Miami’s run (13-4-1) to the ‘over’ in this year’s playoffs.”

The Heat are currently 5 ½-point favorites at most books, while the total is set at 197. Game 4 tips off at 9:00 PM EST on Thursday and can be seen on ABC.

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Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Thursday, June 12

Heat look to bounce back

San Antonio (76-27) at Miami (67-33) Line and Total: Miami -5, Total: 197.5

The Heat look to even the NBA Finals on Thursday night after allowing the Spurs to take control of the series in Game 3.

From the opening tip on Tuesday, San Antonio made it clear that it was not intimidated by playing on the road. The club put on an unbelievable shooting display (59.4% FG, 45.0% threes, 81.2% FT) in a 111-92 blowout of the four-point favorite Heat. The Spurs, who are now 34-16 SU (28-22 ATS) away from home, turned the ball over 12 times in Game 3 compared to the Heat's 20 miscues. Although Miami is only 24-25-1 ATS at home this season, the club is still 40-10 SU, and is also 6-2 SU (4-4 ATS) versus San Antonio at AmericanAirlines Arena over the past three seasons.

For those betting in this contest, the Spurs are 24-9 ATS over the past three seasons after a road win in which they scored 110 or more points. But they are only 2-8 ATS in the fourth game of a playoff series in that time timeframe while Miami is 3-0 ATS in fourth games of series this year. The Heat also happen to be 8-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the past three years. Sixteen of the past 22 games played in Miami between these teams since 1996 have gone Under the total.

The Spurs put on an offensive clinic against the Heat in Game 3, scoring 111 points in the game, including a 71-point first half where they shot an NBA Finals record 75.8% FG. SF Kawhi Leonard (15.7 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 1.3 SPG in series) played the best playoff game of his life on Tuesday, scoring a career-high 29 points (10-of-13 FG, 3-of-6 threes) while also coming away with four rebounds, two steals and two blocks in 39 minutes. Leonard, who scored only 9.0 PPG in the first two games of this series, also played some smothering defense on LeBron James while the Heat were threatening to make a comeback early in the fourth quarter.

SG Danny Green (12.3 PPG, 2.7 SPG in series) also had a huge game for the Spurs, finishing with 15 points (7-of-8 FG, 1-of-2 threes), three assists and five steals in just 21 minutes of play. Green did most of his damage from inside the three-point line, which is something that the Heat defense was not ready for on Tuesday. His ability to drive the ball should make him an extremely tough cover the rest of the way, as Miami will not be able to simply key in on his jumper. PF Tim Duncan (17.7 PPG, 10.3 RPG in series) continued to be a presence inside, playing 30 minutes and ending up with 14 points and six rebounds. Miami has been no match for Duncan when he is catching the ball with at least one foot in the paint, so San Antonio will definitely look to get Duncan the ball more often if the outside shots stop falling. PG Tony Parker (18.3 PPG, 6.3 APG, 1.3 SPG in series) and SG Manu Ginobili (15.3 PPG, 5.3 APG, 1.7 SPG in series) combined to score 26 points in this game, but when their role players aren’t shooting the lights out in Game 4, they will need to be way more aggressive in getting shots for themselves.

Although Miami was blown out on its home floor on Tuesday, there was seemingly not much that they could do to prevent it. The Spurs were not missing anything from the outside in the first half and it put the Heat in too big of a hole to climb out of. SF LeBron James (27.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 4.3 APG, 3.3 SPG in series) was not at his best on Tuesday, despite getting off to a hot start. James had 15 points in the first quarter, but he finished with just 22 points (9-of-14 FG) in the game. Kawhi Leonard really gave him trouble in the second half and James wound up with seven turnovers and a game-low rating of minus-21. The superstar abandoned his jumper late in the contest and should look to be more aggressive when his defenders back off of him in Game 4 and beyond.

SG Dwyane Wade (18.3 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 2.7 APG, 1.3 SPG in series) was also strong offensively in this game, ending up with 22 points (8-of-12 FG) in 36 minutes. However, Wade committed five turnovers and was exploited defensively at times. He will need to be much more active as he chases around the Spurs’ shooters the rest of the series. One of the best sources of offense in this series for Miami has surprisingly been PF Rashard Lewis (12.7 PPG in series). Lewis was a non-factor for most of the playoffs and regular season for Miami, but he has now scored 14 points in back-to-back games and has reached double-digits in five straight contests. If Lewis can continue to hit his threes (4-for-5 in Game 3, 9-for-18 in series), the floor is going to be wide open for his teammates to operate. PF Chris Bosh (15.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG in series) will need more touches the rest of the way, as he hit all of his four attempts in Game 3. He also has to get in the paint more, as he pulled down only three rebounds in 34 minutes and finished with a minus-18 rating.

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Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Thursday, June 12

NBA Finals Game 4 Pick
By: Michael Robinson

The Miami Heat are down 2-1 to the San Antonio Spurs in the NBA Finals and in need of a win Thursday night in Game 4 (9:00 p.m. ET, ABC).

The Heat opened as 5-point home favorites -- and were bet up to 5.5 on Wednesday. The total is 197.5. Another loss means San Antonio can end things at home in Game 5 in the new 2-2-1-1-1 Finals format.

This series has been a back-and-forth affair with each game alternating winners. The oddsmakers like that trend to continue, making Miami a heavier favorite than the 4.5-point spread last game. San Antonio got the shocking 111-92 road win behind 29 points from Kawhi Leonard.

The Heat have been nearly untouchable following a playoff loss, 13-0 straight-up and 12-1 against the spread since Game 6 of the 2012 East Finals against the Celtics. They're 4-0 SU and ATS in that situation in these playoffs, including a 98-96 road win in Game 2 in San Antonio.

The OVER is 2-1 for this series with combined points scored of 205, 194 and 203. The OVER is 13-5 for the Heat in the postseason and 5-0 in their last five in South Beach.

Miami outlook: The Heat need to remain composed, knowing they are still an excellent home team at 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS in these playoffs. The defense does need to improve, although San Antonio will naturally cool off after scoring 71 first half points last game on 75.8 percent shooting from the field.

Coach Erik Spoelstra has a problem with scoring depth. Starting point guard Mario Chalmers and backup Norris Cole are each averaging just 3.3 PPG this series. Chalmers was a key part of last year's Finals win over San Antonio, scoring 10.6 PPG overall and 17 PPG in the final two.

LeBron James needs to be the best player on the court every night for Miami to win. He had 22 points last game, but only eight came in the final three quarters, he turned the ball over seven times, and he was outplayed by Leonard overall. James needs another bounce-back performance like in Game 2 when he imposed his will with 35 points and 10 rebounds.

San Antonio outlook: The Spurs are a thing of beauty to watch offensively when they get their ball movement going. Even the speed of the Miami defense can't catch up. They have tons of weapons when Leonard and Danny Green (15 points last game) are clicking along with Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili.

Coach Gregg Popovich deserves a lot of credit for starting Boris Diaw last game over Tiago Splitter. Diaw had just nine points and five rebounds, but again led the team in plus/minus (+20) and has the defensive ability to challenge the Miami big men on the perimeter. Look for Diaw to get the start for Game 4.

San Antonio is just 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS on the road in the playoffs, but the last two have been top-notch performances, including a Game 6 clincher (112-107 OT) at Oklahoma City. This game on Thursday will be their toughest test to date.

The Linemakers' lean: Handicapping this game comes down to trends vs. value. A trend like 'Miami after a loss' is a tough one to go against, but we have the Spurs rated nearly a point better than the Heat on a neutral court, so the 5.5 points screams value to us. Desperation is a factor for Miami, but it doesn't add up to the premium you'll have to pay to back them on Thursday night. Also, recall that the one ATS blemish in the aforementioned 13-game run came against the Spurs -- in last season's Game 6 overtime barn-burner.

The public will lay the points because of the trends, but we advise taking the points with the Spurs. When Miami shoots 51 percent at home and still loses by 19 points, that's a good enough indicator to go against the grain and the public here.

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Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Thursday, June 12

NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes

San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat

Miami losing game three 111-92 as 4 point home favorite will try to even the series Thursday when they host Game 4 in South Beach. Heat 8-1 SU on home court these playoffs netting 100.8 points/game while allowing the opposition 91.9 per/contest have cashed 6-of-9 against the betting line at American Airlines Arena in Miami. San Antonio hits the hardwood with a 4-5 SU road record scoring 103.8 per/game while allowing 103.0 per/game. Backing San Antonio on the road has not been profitable as Spurs have cashed just 3-of-9 tickets this second season. Key Trends/Angles. Since the 'Three-Amigos' got together in South Beach they're a smart 10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS following a double digit post season loss, 12-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 or less. Heat are also 4-1 SU/ATS these playoffs after scoring =<95.0 point the previous game, 8-1 ATS L3Y's when trailing in a playoff series. Spurs enter 8-9 ATS L17 second season games taking 6.5 or less on the road, 6-3 SU/ATS following a double digit playoff win this season, 7-3 SU/ATS this post season after netting =>110.0 points.

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