Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, April 26

Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, April 26

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

Miami at Charlotte
The Heat (22-19 on the road) head to Charlotte up 2-0 in the series and face a Bobcats team that is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record. Charlotte is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+5 1/2)

Game 745-746: Indiana at Atlanta (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 124.064; Atlanta 117.662
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 6 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 2; 186 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-2); Over

Game 747-748: San Antonio at Dallas (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 126.557; Dallas 127.397
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1; 198
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 3 1/2; 202 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+3 1/2); Under

Game 749-750: Miami at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 121.518; Charlotte 120.720
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 1; 184
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 5 1/2; 188
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+5 1/2); Under

Game 751-752: Oklahoma City at Memphis (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 125.876; Memphis 119.982
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 6; 193
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 3; 188 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-3); Over

NHL

Minnesota at Colorado
The Wild head back to Colorado for Game 5 after tying up the series with a 2-1 win in Game 4 and come into tonight's contest with a 5-0 record in their last 5 games after scoring 2 goals or less in the previous game. Minnesota is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Wild favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+120)

Game 51-52: Detroit at Boston (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 11.707; Boston 11.467
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-230); 5
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+190); Over

Game 53-54: Columbus at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.280; Pittsburgh 12.951
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-175); Under

Game 55-56: Minnesota at Colorado (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 11.667; Colorado 10.895
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-140); 5
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+120); Over

Game 57-58: Los Angeles at San Jose (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.087; San Jose 12.557
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-165); 5
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-165); Under

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DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Cincinnati at Atlanta
The Reds look to bounce back from yesterday's 5-4 loss in the series opener and come into today's contest with a 5-1 record in Mike Leake's last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Cincinnati is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Reds favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+105)

Game 901-902: San Diego at Washington (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Cashner) 16.197; Washington (Roark) 15.117
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-105); Over

Game 903-904: Pittsburgh at St. Louis (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Liriano) 14.486; St. Louis (Lyons) 16.112
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-120); Under

Game 905-906: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wood) 15.092; Milwaukee (Estrada) 14.531
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-165); 7
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+145); Over

Game 907-908: Miami at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Slowey) 14.500; NY Mets (Mejia) 16.172
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-140); Under

Game 909-910: Cincinnati at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Leake) 16.291; Atlanta (Hale) 15.336
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+105); Over

Game 911-912: Philadelphia at Arizona (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Lee) 13.196; Arizona (Arroyo) 15.700
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-135); Under

Game 913-914: Colorado at LA Dodgers (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Nicasio) 16.003; LA Dodgers (Maholm) 14.962
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+105); Over

Game 915-916: LA Angels at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santiago) 15.230; NY Yankees (Nuno) 16.627
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-115); Under

Game 917-918: Boston at Toronto (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Buchholz) 15.681; Toronto (Morrow) 14.551
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Toronto (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-105); Over

Game 919-920: Detroit at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Sanchez) 16.418; Minnesota (Hughes) 14.898
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-160); Under

Game 921-922: Kansas City at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Guthrie) 16.087; Baltimore (Chen) 15.037
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+115); Over

Game 923-924: Oakland at Houston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Straily) 16.191; Houston (Keuchel) 14.515
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-165); Under

Game 925-926: Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Ramos) 15.292; White Sox (Danks) 14.107
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-105); Over

Game 927-928: Texas at Seattle (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lewis) 13.560; Seattle (Hernandez) 15.591
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 2; 6
Vegas Line: Seattle (-170); 7
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-170); Under

Game 929-930: Cleveland at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (McAllister) 14.493; San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.972
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-115); Under

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Pittsburgh Pirates at St Louis CardinalsFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Pirates and Cardinals meet at Busch Stadium Saturday afternoon where Francisco Liriano matches serves with Tyler Lyons. Liriano takes the hill in solid current form sporting a 5-1 mark in his last six team starts against the Redbirds, including 2-0 all-time in this park. With St. Louis just 1-6 in Lyons' last seven starts, we recommend a 1-unit play on Pittsburgh.

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Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis CardinalsFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: St. Louis Cardinals -105FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh is not hitting, 19th in baseball in runs scored, 26th in batting and 25th in on base percentage. This team hits .229 as a group and struggled on the road. The Pirates are 1-5 in their last six road games and 1-5 in Francisco Liriano's last six road starts. Francisco Liriano (0-3) hasn't been as sharp as a year ago with a 4.22 ERA. Liriano took a no-decision Monday, allowing five runs, four earned, in seven innings of work. The team is 1-3 his last four starts. Defending champion St. Louis is battling St. Louis for first place and the Cardinals are 40-13 in their last 53 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Starter Tyler Lyons has a 3.00 ERA and the Cardinals are 5-1 in their last six home games vs. a left-handed starter.

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Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Indiana Pacers at Atlanta HawksFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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After seeing the Hawks, Warriors, Wizards, Nets and Blazers all pull off big upsets in Game 1, I wrote a piece on the ever popular "Zig Zag Theory". I said the following: "It seems to me that if there is any trend worth following in the post-season, it's going against the popular Zigzag Theory. Clearly when a team loses, you have to accept the possibility that they may simply not match-up well with their opponent. They may have been overrated in the first place. That combined a with the adjustment by bookmakers who expect the money to follow the Zigzag, presents us with excellent value on teams coming off a big win." We saw mixed results as the aforementioned teams went 2-2-1 in their Game 2 matchups. The Anti Zig Zag cashed in 2-of-3 with the Grizzlies and Clippers winning Game 3, while Atlanta shocked the Pacers again taking a 2-1 lead in the series. While these teams have alternated wins in each of the first three games, the Pacers appear to be a team on the ropes, and it seems to defy all logic that they are favored on the road in Game 4. Atlanta isn't a great team, but the Hawks are pretty damn good at home. They won 24 games at Philips Arena, compared to the Pacers 21-20 road record. Indiana's loss in Game 3 should be quite telling, Paul George had just 12 points on 3-of-11 shooting, and Luis Scola lead the team in scoring with 17 points off the bench. They failed to win Game 1 at home, and didn't even come close in Game 3 in Atlanta, and now they are being asked to cover points on the road ... in a building where they have failed to cover in 10 of their last 13 visits.


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Analytics TradingFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Game 5 in the playoffs has been circled since the beginning of the playoffs for the analytics team. As we have correctly stated all playoffs goals rise throughout the series in a startling manner. Game 5 is where the goals historically fall off the cliff. 6.0 GPG East down to 4.9 GPG in Game 5's get the creative parlays ready.

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San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas MavericksFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: San Antonio Spurs -3.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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San Antonio will be more than ready on Saturday after their poor showing in game 2 with 24 turnovers and no energy. Dallas wont have answers for Tony Parker and Patty Mills knocking down the deep ball, Calderon cannot stay with him. Dallas has a problem, and it's their guard play, they struggle on the defensive end and cant score enough for Dallas. Devin Harris would be a better option for Dallas to keep them close, over Calderon. San Antonio and their "old tired legs" are still just too much for the Mavs to handle and I like the Spurs convincingly here on Saturday afternoon.

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Rob Vinciletti

San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals -108

The Nationals apply to the system as seen below which has won 16 straight times since 2005 and is included today to illustrate the exclusivity and Power of the Data we use on a daily basis. The system plays on home teams that are favored with a total that is 8 or less if they won at home last night by 5 or more runs, had 10 or more hits and scored 10 or more runs, provided their opponent scored 2 or less runs on 5+ hits and both teams made no more than 1 error in the game. These teams win by an average 3 runs per game. The Padres have lost 4 of the last 5 here and are hitting under .200 in day games. The Nationals have won 3 of the last 4 at home off a home win by 5 or more runs if they scored 10+ runs. They have Roark making the start and he was solid in his only home start going 6+ scoreless innings. He will oppose San Diego righty A. Cashner who has an Era over 4.50 on the road. Cashner has a 9.34 era vs Washington and was blasted in his lone start here going 2 inning sand allowing 6 earned runs. Based on the systems, angles and Pitching Indicators we will back the Nationals today.


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Bruce Marshall

Miami Marlins at New York Mets
Pick: New York Mets

As long as the weather permits for this game at Citi Field, we'll take the Mets and Jennry Mejia (3-0, 1.99 ERA), who has certainly found a rhythm on the mound after tossing a career-best 13 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings.He allowed four hits in 6 2/3 innings while collecting seven strikeouts in Monday's 2-0 win over St. Louis. And while the Mets have won 5 of 6, the Miami offense is in a funk, with a .193 batting average and 10 runs scored while dropping three of five.

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Jeff Fenster

Pirates vs. Cardinals
Play: Under 7½

The Cardinals take on the Pirates in a game that should be very fun and competitive.  The Cardinals lineup has become anemic scoring 9 runs over their last 6 games.  That is 1.5 runs per game.  The Pirates have only scored 12 runs over the last 6 games which puts them at 2 runs per game.  These teams are not hitting the ball and they dueled it out yesterday with the game ending 1-0.  On the hill tonight is Francisco Liriano (who is more than capable of showing up with one of his dazzling performances) versus Tyler Lyons who is a solid pitcher. 7.5 runs is a lot of runs for these two teams and we are all over the Under for the free play of the day.

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Chase Diamond

Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
Play: Columbus Blue Jackets +162

This game features the 2-2 Blue Jackets at the 2-2 Penguins. Columbus knows how to beat this Pittsburgh team and there fresh off a win at home with them so their confidense is high. Were getting a very nice line in this game and I feel it's worth the risk. The public is behind the Penguins by a rate of 70% yet this line is moving in reverse showing us big time sharp action on the Blue Jackets.


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Raphael Esparza

Indiana (-2) over Atlanta

The Indiana of old showed up in the 2nd half of Game 2 and easily beat the Atlanta Hawks. The Pacers defense was outstanding in the 2nd half, and if they play defense like that Saturday I see Indiana taking back control of this series. The Pacers bench was really good as well, and I really like the way the team shared the ball in Game 2. I predict the Pacers win Game 3 in Atlanta and wouldn't shock me to see them close out this series and the Hawks might not win another game in this series. If, and its a big “if”, they play like they did on Tuesday night. Get on the Pacers. And also sign up with my MLB and NBA services this weekend as I have two more big plays. I have gone 6-1 in all sports the last two weekends with my plays of 5.0 or higher.

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Allen Eastman

Pittsburgh -110 over St. Louis

It is time for the Pirates to turn it on. They are near the bottom of the National League in both batting average and team ERA. They are not playing well out of the gate. But this is still the same core of guys that went to the playoffs and won the Wild Card game. They should be a healthy underdog in this game in Busch Stadium, and I think that this play will offer a lot of value. The Pirates are in line to have their ace, Francisco Liriano, on the mound, and the Cardinals have struggled against left-handed pitching. He will want some revenge after losing to the Cards back on April 5. St. Louis will go with Tyler Lyons. He was just OK in his first start of the year this week against the Mets. But the Pirates have a tougher lineup than New York, and I think that Lyon will struggle with the pressure of tossing in front of the home crowd. The Pirates won the first series with the division rivals two games to one. They have had modest success against the Cardinals over the past two seasons. I think that makes them worth a look at plus-money here.

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MLB Predictions

Philadelphia Phillies -131

Arizona took the first of this series last night by a score of 5-4, but that makes them just 8-18 on the season and 2-11 at home (which might include one Australia game). The Phillies fall a game below .500 at 11-12 and are a solid 7-7 on the road. Tonight they send their ace, Cliff Lee, to the mound. Lee is 3-2 with a 3.09 ERA, .306 OBA and 1.31 WHIP. Besides a rough start to the season in Texas, Lee has pitched great. In his last 4 starts he's allowed just 4 earned runs combined and on the season he has 38 strikeouts and just 2 walks. His latest start was 8 innings of shutout baseball where he struckout 10 and walked none vs the Dodgers. Over his career vs the Dbacks he is 4-1 with a 2.93 ERA, .205 OBA and 0.93 WHIP. His last start vs Arizona was 7 shutout innings. He will be facing Bronson Arroyo, who has struggles this season. Arroyo is 1-2 with a 9.50 ERA, .372 OBA and 2.00 WHIP. In his last two starts combined he has pitched 8.2 innings and giving up 18 hits, 14 earned runs, with 3 strikeouts and 4 walks. When Arroyo has his stuff he can be great, but when he doesn't he usually struggles quite a bit like we've seen this season. Arroyo has struggled vs Philadelphia in his career going 4-7 with a 5.35 ERA, .274 OBA and 1.34 WHIP. A few of the Phillies have had some success vs Arroyo over the last 5 years, including Dominic Brown who is hitting .545 off Arroyo in 11 at-bats. Note that the Phillies are 5-1 in Lee's last 6 starts with a total set between 7-8.5, 5-2 in his last 7 vs a team with a losing record, and 5-2 in his last 7 starts with 4 days off. The Dbacks are 0-6 in their last 6 Saturday games, 0-8 in their last 8 games as a a home underdog, and 1-8 in their last 9 games vs a left-handed starter. Also note that the Phillies are 4-1 in Lee's last 5 starts vs the Dbacks. This is a big pitching mis-match with current form, and I expect that current form to continue tonight in Arizona where the Dbacks have struggled. I like the price on Lee and the Phillies and I'm on it for 5 units.


Red Sox / Blue Jays Over 9

I said before the season started that the OVER in Blue Jays games would be a good trend to look at. Thus far you would be ahead if you took the OVER in all of their games this season, a 13-9 advantage. Of late is what I have expected from this team: scoring lots of runs and giving up a ton as well. Their last four games have hit the OVER. The last two games weren't even close, as the Blue Jays lost 10-8 and 11-4. Prior to that they won 9-3 in a rather comfortable cover. Finding a reliable number 2 in the rotation has been an issue for the Jays. Mark Buehrle has been great, but other than him the rotation has left a lot to be desired. Brandon Morrow enters today with a 5.03 ERA in four starts. His WHIP has also been lacking too at 1.37. Note that all of his games have gone OVER the number this season. Actually, dating back to last season, Morrow has been involved in 11 straight that have eclipsed the number. Clay Buchholz like Morrow, is trying to get into a rhythm. His ERA is all the way up to 7.71 after a productive 2013 campaign. In his last start against the Orioles, Buchholz lasted only 2.1 innings, getting blasted for 6 runs in that time. The most innings he has lasted this season has been only 6. His OBP is a whopping .402 with a 1.93 WHIP. Not sure what is bothering him, maybe trying to fight through an injury, but it is safe to say he is not himself. I expect some hard hit balls in this matchup, so the OVER 9 looks like a good bet for early Saturday afternoon.

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Bob Balfe

Phillies -140

Lee is pitching excellent right now and Arroyo is not. This is not a great Arizona team as they really struggle to put up runs. This game is all about the starting pitching. If Lee is on his game like he has been the Phillies should win with ease. Take Philadelphia.

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Tom Barton

Toronto vs Boston
Pick: Over 9

The Red Sox are swinging some hot bats recently and now they get to tee off on someone they are very familiar with in Brandon Morrow. Boston has scored 5 or more runs in each of the last 3 games and 5 of the last 6 games. Now they stare out of the box looking at Brandon Morrow. Morrow already has over a 5 ERA on the year in his 4 starts and has made is out of the 5th inning just once, never past the 6th. That is commonplace against these Sox for him where Morrow has a 9.07 ERA against Boston in 9 starts and a 9.13 ERA against them at the Rogers Centre. He has seen past the 5th once in his career against this team and with the hot Sox now I can't imagine it getting better suddenly today. The hope for the Sox today is that Clay Bucholtz is on the other mound but that has not been a hope this year. Bucholtz has looked really bad lately allowing 6 runs in just 2 innings last time out and now has a 7.71 ERA on the season. He has lost 4-5 mph off his fastball and like the Sox faces a hot Jays team that has scored 4 or more in 5 of their last 6 games. I expect a shootout here.

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LT Profits

San Antonio vs Dallas
Pick: Spurs -3.5

The Dallas Mavericks snapped a 10-game head-to-head losing streak vs. the San Antonio Spurs while evening up this series 1-1 with a road upset in Game 2, but they may have awoken a sleeping giant! The Spurs had the best record in the NBA during the regular season at 62-20, but they simply lacked focus on Wednesday as they uncharacteristically committed 24 turnovers, leading t0 33 Dallas points and to the Mavericks getting off an alarming 28 more shot attempts. San Antonio did shoot 50.0 percent from the field, but it also allowed the Mavs to shoot 48.9 percent. Remember that the Spurs were sixth in the NBA in points allowed, so if they tighten up that defense and play with more focus offensively without all those turnovers, they should immediately re-seize home court in the series handily. The Spurs are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games.

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Charlie Scott

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -132

Don't be fooled by Arizona's 3 game winning streak, the Diamondbacks are NOT very good. The situation sets up nice for Philly and we get one of the better Pitchers (Lee) in MLB at a decent price. After having a rocky opening day, Lee has had 4 straight solid starts. Meanwhile AZ starter Bronson Arroyo has just been getting shelled this Year. He's pitched 18 Innings, given up 29 Hits, and 19 ER. That's a run per inning ! With the Phillies power on offense they could light Arroyo up Tonight. After writing all that, look at it this way the Phillies are the better Team #1 Starter vs a #5 Starter and the price is only -130 . PHILLIES !

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Tony George

Miami / Charlotte Over 188

Charlotte was deplorable from the floor in Game 2 and LeBron is putting up 29 ppg and Wade 19 in this series to date and Miami is clicking on all cylinders.  The Bobcats are known for defense but it is apparent that Miami who has beaten the Bobcats 18 straight times is not a good matchup for the home team and the OVER is 5-0 ATS the last 5 Meetings

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Scott Spreitzer

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals    
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates -103

The Pirate lefty has frustrated the Cardinals, a team that has had their troubles scoring runs against southpaws.  After a tough 2013 at the plate against left-handers, St. Louis is averaging less than 3 rpg in five tries in 2014. The Redbirds are in a drought over their last nine games in general and with Pittsburgh having seen Cardinal lefty Tyler Lyons last summer, we believe the Bucs will do enough at the plate to back Liriano.  I'm recommending a play on the Pirates on Saturday.

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