UFC 172 Betting News and Notes
UFC 172 Betting News and Notes
Glover looks for huge upset
Event: UFC 172
Date: Apr. 26, 2014
Venue: Baltimore Arena
City: Baltimore, Maryland
Light Heavyweight Championship - Jon Jones (19-1) vs. Glover Teixeira (22-2)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Jones -550, Teixeira +400
Light heavyweight champion Jon Jones will have another very difficult test on Saturday night as he defends his belt against Glover Teixeira at UFC 172 in Baltimore.
Jones has been dominant during his time as the champion, but was challenged in his most recent fight on Sept. 21 against Alexander Gustafsson more than he has ever been in his career. The 6-foot-4 Jones is usually taller than his opponent, but the 6-foot-5 Gustafsson kept the match close throughout with his length, eventually losing a unanimous decision. That win marked the sixth straight time that Jones defended his championship belt, which is a UFC light heavyweight record. And all of these opponents have been top-notch, a list that includes Chael Sonnen, Vitor Belfort and Rashad Evans.
While Jones is a big favorite going into this match, his opponent has been on an absolute tear. Glover Teixeira enters this match with 20 consecutive victories, including a dominating first-round knockout against Ryan Bader at UFC Fight Night 28 on Sept. 4. Teixeira has the ability to win a fight with a single punch, as he is as strong of a fighter as there is in the light heavyweight class. But the 6-foot-2 Teixeira could struggle with Jones' length and reach, as he has not faced an opponent that comes close to the talent that Jones possesses.
Jon "Bones" Jones comes into this fight with 19 career victories, and eight have them come by way of knockout. He also has six wins by submission and five by decision. Jones has only one loss in his career, and that was a controversial disqualification against Matt Hamill back in 2009, but he has reeled off 10 straight victories since that disappointment. In his most recent match against Gustafsson, Jones showed that he is able to take a beating and still do what is necessary to get the victory.
While he does not land near as many significant strikes per minute (4.15) as Teixeira (6.91), Jones is a more accurate striker (54%) than Teixeira (48%). With his incredible length (84.5 inches, longest of any UFC fighter), the 26-year-old Jones is able to keep his opponents at bay the entire time. While the New York-born Jones is the big favorite to win Saturday's fight, do not expect Teixeira to come into this match intimidated at all.
Teixeira has 22 victories in his career, with 14 of them coming by way of knockout. He also five wins by submission and three wins by decision. In his past 10 fights, Teixeira has finished nine of them, and it is no secret on how he plans to win on Saturday, as he has stated to the media that he is going to knock Jones out. The 34-year-old has incredible knockout power, but it will be very difficult for him to get close enough to deliver that punch against Jones.
The Brazilian will have a major advantage when it comes down to grappling (4.78 takedown average for Teixeira, compared to only 2.45 for Jones), but both of these fighters do a terrific job of defending against the takedown (100% for Teixeira and 96% for Jones). For Teixeira to win this fight, he must stay close to Jones and not allow the champ to use his superior reach. If he is able to do that, then we could have a new champion in the light heavyweight class.
UFC 172 - Other Bouts
Danny Castillo -330
Charlie Brenneman +250
Chris Beal -135
Patrick Williams +105
Jim Miller -210
Yancy Medeiros +170
Andre Fili -155
Max Holloway +125
Takanori Gomi -190
Isaac Vallie-Flagg +155
Jessamyn Duke +100
Bethe Correia -130
Joseph Benavidez -450
Tim Elliot +325
Luke Rockhold -800
Tim Boetsch +550
Phil Davis -250
Anthony Johnson +200
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Re: UFC 172 Betting News and Notes
UFC 172 Odds and Picks
By: Hugh Citron
LAS VEGAS -- The light heavyweight title is on the line Saturday night at UFC 172 from Baltimore, with Jon Jones defending his crown against No. 2 contender Glover Teixeira. "Bones" Jones is about a 11-to-2 favorite to retain his title, with Teixeira getting about 4-to-1 odds on the takeback.
Jones (19-1), who won the title back in 2011 by stopping Shogun Rua, has successfully defended his title six times since. In his last fight, a thriller against Alexander Gustafsson last September, Jones was able to win the last two rounds and get the unanimous decision in a bout many experts thought could have gone either way. Jones was taken down and hit frequently by Gustafsson, in what was by far the toughest test of his career. Jones, 26, is in his prime and can be champion for quite a while if he stays focused and trains properly for each opponent.
Gustafsson, though, was able to get inside the reach "Bones" used to his advantage so well against earlier opponents, a tactic Teixeira should also try to employ. Teixeira (22-2) is on a 20-fight win streak, including a devastating first-round finish in his most-recent outing, Sept. 4 over the always-tough Ryan Bader. He comes into this fight full of confidence.
But this fight is about Jon Jones getting back the form he had before the Gustafsson fight. That bout was Jones’ first big test, and he had to dig deep to get himself out of trouble in order to get the win.
Look for Jones to come back in this fight against a very tough opponent in Teixeira and retain his title. The problem for betting purposes is there’s no value with Bones Jones. At steeper than 5-to-1, it’s hard to recommend a big play.
Looking for price on the undercard
The undercard features another compelling light heavyweight battle between No. 4 contender Phil “Mr. Wonderful” Davis and Anthony “Rumble” Johnson. Davis is a 2-to-1 favorite, with Johnson getting odds of about +170 on the takeback.
Davis (12-1) won his most recent fight thanks to a gift decision over Lyoto Machida. Most observers – this one included – had Machida winning every round, but somehow the judges all gave it to Davis. That win might have the line a little higher than it should be for what appears to be a pretty even matchup.
Johnson (16-4) is making his return to the UFC after competing in the World Series of Fighting last year. He fought at heavyweight in the WSOF, but 205 pounds – where Saturday’s bout will be contested – might be the perfect weight for a fighter who always had a tough time making weight in UFC’s welterweight division, sometimes having to cut as much as 55 pounds to get there.
Look for this to be a very close fight, and if Johnson can avoid the takedown, he can make this very interesting. Take a look at Anthony “Rumble” Johnson as the underdog play in this fight.
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