Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, April 7

Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, April 7

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Kentucky vs. Connecticut
The Wildcats (29-10) advanced to Monday's final with a last-second win over Wisconsin and come into the contest with Connecticut (31-8) carrying a 7-0-1 ATS record in their last 8 games versus teams with a winning percentage above .600. Kentucky is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Wildcats favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-2 1/2)

Game 601-602: Kentucky vs. Connecticut (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 79.361; Connecticut 74.229
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 5; 131
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 2 1/2; 135
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-2 1/2); Under

NHL
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Minnesota at WinnipegFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The Wild head to Winnipeg tonight after a 4-0 win over Pittsburgh on Saturday and carrying a 1-5 record in their last 6 games following a victory. Winnipeg is the pick (-110) according to Dunkel, which has the Jets favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (-110)
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Game 1-2: Calgary at New Jersey (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 11.574; New Jersey 10.606
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-160); 5
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+140); Over
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Game 3-4: Minnesota at Winnipeg (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 10.504; Winnipeg 11.662
Dunkel Line & Total: Winnipeg by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Winnipeg (-110); 5
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (-110); Under
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Game 5-6: Anaheim at Vancouver (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 12.185; Vancouver 10.587
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-115); Under

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DUNKEL INDEX
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MLB
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Oakland at Minnesota
The A's head to Minnesota today after a 5-3 win over Seattle yesterday and come in with an 0-4 record in their last 4 games following a victory. Minnesota is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Twins favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+115).
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Game 953-954: Cincinnati at St. Louis (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cingrani) 14.324; St. Louis (Wacha) 15.931
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-150); Under
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Game 955-956: Baltimore at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Jimenez) 14.862; NY Yankees (Kuroda) 16.332
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-150); Under
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Game 957-958: LA Angels at Houston (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Wilson) 13.242; Houston (Cosart) 14.256
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+130); Over
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Game 959-960: Oakland at Minnesota (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Kazmir) 14.283; Minnesota (Correia) 15.371
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Oakland (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+115); Over
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Game 961-962: Texas at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Scheppers) 15.810; Boston (Lackey) 17.442
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-155); Under
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Game 963-964: Tampa Bay at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Moore) 14.483; Kansas City (Vargas) 15.440
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+110); Under
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Game 965-966: San Diego at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Erlin) 13.726; Cleveland (Kluber) 15.229
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-145); Over
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Game 967-968: Chicago White Sox at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Paulino) 14.605; Colorado (Lyles) 15.992
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Colorado (-135); 10
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-135); Over

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Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore Orioles at New York YankeesFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: New York YankeesFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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When Hideki Kuroda matches serves with Ubaldo Jimenez in this international affair of American League arms at Yankee Stadium Monday afternoon, Kuroda will take the hill knowing he is 5-1 in his last six team starts during April. He was also around the plate this spring with 10 strikeouts and 1 walk. With Jimenez 0-3 with an 8.25 ERA in his last three starts against the Pinstripes, we recommend a 1-unit play on the Yankees.

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Rob Vinciletti

Anaheim Ducks vs. Vancouver Canucks    
Play: Anaheim Ducks -115

The Ducks have won the first 4 meetings with Vancouver this season and have out scored them 21-6 in the process. They have the leagues 2nd best offensive unit and take on a Vancouver team with the 27th tanked home defense. The Ducks are 27-9 vs losing teams and Vancouver is 11-25 vs winning teams and have lost 25 of 37 in the second half. Look for Anaheim to take another from Vancouver here tonight.


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Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis CardinalsFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: St. Louis CardinalsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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These two club just opened the season in Cincinnati and now they play again here in St Louis. The Reds are 2-4 after winning on Sunday at the Mets, 2-1. The Reds have scored just 15 runs in just six games while allowing 19 runs overall. Not surprisingly the Reds are 27th in runs scored and 26th in batting average. Tony Cingrani gets the start for the Reds after a very nice initial outing. Cingrani threw seven shutout innings against these Cards last Wednesday, posting nine strike outs. Still, the Reds wasted the great outing with a loss to the Cards. The Cardinals aren't off to a much better start, just 3-3 after Sunday's loss at Pittsburgh, 2-1. Much like the Reds, the Cardinals are struggling early at the plate. St Louis is 22nd in runs scored and 27th in batting average. And, much like his counterpart tonight, Michael Wacha is coming off a excellent initial outing going 6 2/3 innings allowing just three hits and no runs. I look for another good pitching match here tonight but with the Cardinals at home I'm giving them the edge. Wacha is a pitcher I see continuing his success over much of the year while Cingrani is a much more questionable pitcher.

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Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Orioles vs. YankeesFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 8½FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This is the Yanks home opener. The visiting Baltimore Orioles come in off a 3-1 win over the Tigers in Detroit yesterday. The O’s send Ubaldo Jimenez (0-1, 6.00 ERA) to the hill tonight. Jimenez gave up four runs over six innings in a loss to the Red Sox in his first start of the season. Jimenez has had his troubles against the Yankees having gone 1-3 life time with an ERA of 6.45. In his last start versus the Yanks he gave up seven earned runs in just under five innings of work. New York comes in off a series win over the Toronto Blue Jays last night to move to 3-3 on the season behind some timely hitting and C.C. Sabathia pitching. The Yankees will counter with Hiroki Kuroda (0-1, 3.00 ERA) today. The right-hander gave up two runs, three hits and a walk over six innings Wednesday in Houston but was on the hook for the 3-1 loss. Obviously this is a big game for New York."There's always something special about Opening Day," manager Joe Girardi assessed last night. The Yankees have a lot of new players that will be looking to make their mark offensively in this game. The Orioles come off a low scoring game but will pretty jacked up to play the Evil Empire in the Big Apple. Baltimore’s big bats will likely have to step up here considering how shaky Jimenez has been vs. the Bronx Bombers. Consider taking the “over.”

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Ray MonohanFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland vs. MinnesotaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 8FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Twins have been scoring a lot more than expected this season while owning the league’s second worst ERA so far. They are a perfect 6-0 over this year and though a streak like that is made to be broken the pitchers going in this on give it a great chance to extend to another day. Oakland has power and everything the Twins do is scoring runs right now. I think the combo will put up some fireworks.

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Bryan PowerFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati vs. St. LouisFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Cincinnati +1.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Playing against the Cardinals when they faced a lefty starter was always a good idea last season, so I'll grab southpaw Tony Cingrani for the Reds +1.5 Monday afternoon....
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Cincinnati snapped a three-game losing streak w/ a 2-1 win over the Mets Sunday afternoon. The previous time they tasted victory was against St. Louis w/ the exact same pitching matchup we have this afternoon - Cingrani vs. Michael Wacha.  I had the Under that day and the two starters came through by combining to throw 13+ scoreless innings, a game eventually won by the Reds 1-0.  While the Reds haven't had much success here in St. Louis over the last decade, I like their chances w/ Cingrani.
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Cingrani went seven innings and allowed just two hits while striking out nine in last week's game.  The team has now won all three times he has started vs. the Cards, who are just 3-3 this season after losing Sunday in Pittsbrugh.  They had only three hits.  Look for the Reds to either win or lose by only a single run.

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Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore vs. NY YankeesFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: NY YankeesFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bronx Bombers are coming off a win in Toronto on Sunday, taking two of three in their series versus the Blue Jays. They will be back in New York Monday, hosting the Orioles in their home opener.
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Hiroki Kuroda will get the nod for the home team, and he pitched well in the Bronx last year. Kuroda (0-1, 3.00 ERA) was 7-3 with a 2.35 ERA in 14 home starts. He was also far more effective in day games than he was at night, with a record of 5-1 with a 2.26 ERA in 10 starts in the afternoon.
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The Orioles will hand the ball to Ubaldo Jimenez, who was roughed up by the Red Sox in his season debut. Jimenez (0-1, 6.00 ERA) allowed four runs on five hits, including a pair of home runs, losing 6-2 to Boston.
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It would appear that Jimenez prefers pitching under the lights, as he's 6-15 with a 5.53 ERA in afternoon games over the past three seasons.
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Carlos Beltran is hitting .364 with a pair of home runs lifetime versus Jimenez.

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Matt FargoFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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LA Angels vs. HoustonFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: HoustonFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston evened its record on the season at 3-3 and has a chance to salvage the split today with the series against the Angels while jumping over .500 before hitting the road for the first time. Scott Feldman turned in his second quality start of the season and the offense came back to life, scoring seven runs as Houston had scored a grand total of seven runs in their previous four games combined. We won with the Astros in Jarred Cosart's first outing this season and we will back him again here as he still remains an under the radar pitcher.  He is coming off a solid outing in his opener as he allowed just four hits and no runs in five innings against the Yankees in the Astros 3-1 victory. Last year in limited action, he tossed 60 innings, allowing 46 hits, 13 earned runs, 35 walks, and 33 strike outs. He only won one game but posted a 1.95 ERA and 1.35 WHIP while Houston won four of his nine starts when he was an underdog which showed a net profit. Cosart improved his command enormously in spring training with 16 strikeouts and only five walks in 12 innings. He showed good ground ball numbers last year and has a nasty cut fastball that can keep that going. C.J. Wilson got lit up in his first start this season as he allowed six runs on eight hits in 5.2 inning against the Mariners but still comes in as the hefty favorite because of name and expectations which I have talked about before that drives these lines. Granted, Wilson dominated Houston last year but the Angels went just 2-2 in those games and going back, they are 2-5 in his last seven starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.


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EZWINNERSFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Connecticut +3FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Kentucky has had the most impressive run in the tournament this year considering the teams that they have defeated but I believe that this will be their toughest task. I am still sitting on the 10-1 future for Kentucky to win the tournament that I placed in January when I was in Vegas, so this is a bit of a hedge, but the backcourt of the Huskies is playing as well as anyone in the nation. The Wildcats have got to this point due to the play of the Harrison twins, but Napier and Boatwright are going to be a very tough match up. When Kentucky struggled this season it was due to the twins as well and the UCONN back court could very well make those struggles reappear for the twins. Kentucky has also not blown anyone out during this run so this game could very well be decided by one possession where a Kentucky one or two point win would be the best of both worlds for me. Take the points.

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Will Rogers

Minnesota vs. Winnipeg
Pick: Minnesota

Minnesota can lock up a playoff berth with a win tonight in Winnipeg. This has been a good road team of late and with the Jets season all over but the shouting while the Wild have been hot, I expect the two points to go the way of the visitors in this one.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Traveling Well - Minnesota is 4-1-2 its last seven road games.  They have won in Winnipeg earlier this year. They have a recent win in Los Angeles, which is impressive.

2. Recent Trends - The Wild are coming off a tough four-game stretch that saw them go 3-0-1.  While the Jets beat the slumping Leafs two days ago, they had just four wins in their previous 12 games.

3. X-Factor -  Coming off an impressive shutout of the Pittsburgh Penguins on Saturday, the Wild are in a good place here.  They have won four of six coming off a shutout win this season.

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Jimmy Boyd

Cleveland Indians -144

The Indians won their home opener against the Twins on Friday, but would lose the series with back-to-back losses over the weekend. I look for Cleveland to come out focused and ready to take care of business against a bad San Diego team. While the Padres were able to avoid their fifth straight loss with a 4-2 win at Miami on Sunday, San Diego's offense comes in averaging a mere 2 runs and is hitting just 1.89 as a team on the season.

I look for Cleveland to provide more than enough runs for today's starter Corey Kubler, as the Indians will face off against the Padres No. 5 starter Robbie Erlin, who was just 3-3 with a 4.12 ERA in 11 games (9 starts) in 2013. Kubler was rocked for 5 runs on 8 hits in just 3 and 1/3 innings in his first start of the year at Oakland, but you have to keep in mind that he had a 4.98 ERA on the road last year compared to just a 2.76 ERA at home. I expect Kubler to bounce back in a big way against the soft-hitting Padres.

Cleveland is 30-11 in their last 41 games when listed as a favorite of -125 to -175 and a dominant 11-3 in their last 14 after two straight home losses against a division opponent. It's also worth noting that Kubler is 11-2 against the money line in his last 13 starts versus teams who draw 3 or fewer walks per game.

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Steve Janus

Minnesota Twins +137

The Twins finished up a respectable 3-3 on their 6-game road trip to start the season and are showing strong value as an underdog in their home opener. Minnesota's Kevin Correia is coming off a strong first start, where he allowed just 2 earned runs in six innings vs the White Sox. While Oakland's Scott Kazmir threw 7 and 1/3 shutout innings in a 6-1 A's win over the Indians at home in his first start, he's had his fair share of trouble on the road. Over the last 3 seasons, Kazmir is just 3-7 with a 4.66 ERA in 16 starts on the road.

We also have a strong system in play favoring Minnesota. Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (MINNESOTA) - excellent fielding team - averaging <=0.5 errors/game on the season against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing are 53-30 (64%) over the last 5 seasons.

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Sam Martin

Kentucky at Connecticut
Prediction: Over.

Once again the tournament doesn't make logical sense - instead bringing together the final two teams that got hot at the right time. Kentucky is here after winning games by 7, 2, 5, 3, and 1 points - defying the odds of virtually a coin-flips chance of winning or losing in four straight games.

UConn scores 60 points on 35% shooting vs. Michigan State, then scores 63 points on 56% shooting vs. Florida. Go figure. No idea who will win this game outright or cover the small number, but we do believe there is some value backing the Over. Kentucky prefers to speed things up, and despite UConn winning the last two games with low scores, the Huskies prefer a higher tempo as well. Against "offense" teams in Michigan and Wisconsin the Wildcats put up combined totals of 147 points two games in a row, and a similar final scores seems about right here.

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Jeff Alexander

Colorado Rockies -142

The White Sox haven't shown they can be trusted on the road where they are 16-45 in their last 61. The White Sox have also struggled their way to a poor 17-37 record in their last 54 series openers. The Rockies are 5-2 in their last 7 series openers and 4-1 in their last 5 as a home favorite. Paulino has been blasted for 16 runs on 26 hits over 18 1-3 innings in nine career games at Coors Field. Look for flighty Coors to get the best of him again.

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Tom Grassi

Cincinnati vs. St. Louis
Play: Under 6½

The Reds take their cold bats on the road again this afternoon opening a 3-game series with the Cardinals. They left New York scoring a total of 8 runs in the three games. On the season, Cincinnati has scored more than three runs only once in their six games. Their team batting average currently sits at .210.

St. Louis plays their home opener today after six road games to start the season. The first three were against these same Reds. The Cards bat haven’t been very hot either as they are scoring 2.8 runs per game with a .186 batting average.

The pitching matchup is a rematch between Cingrani and Wacha. In their meeting in Cincinnati the Reds outlast the Cards 1-0 with Cingrani going seven innings and not allowing a run while striking out nine Cards batters. Wacha also pitched shutout ball going 6 and 2/3 innings striking out seven.

The total in this contest is a very low 6.5 runs, and its low for a good reason. Both teams are not hitting, it’s an afternoon game, and both pitchers pitch well against the opposition. Look for another low scoring close game this afternoon in St. Louis.

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Dave Price

Texas Rangers +1½ -130

The Rangers are showing value catching runs at this price considering they have won six of the last eight meetings with Boston and 11 of the last 16 in Boston. Plus, Lackey's track record against Texas isn't good. He's 12-15 with a 6.01 ERA in 38 starts against the Rangers. His teams are 3-9 in his last 12 starts against them, including 0-3 in his last 3. Lackey is also a terrible 19-23 on the money line in his career as a home favorite of -150 to -175. Texas' Scheppers had a rough outing in his first career start, but he'll be more focused here as a result. It will be to his benefit that the Red Sox, who are struggling at the plate, aren't very familiar with him. Boston is just 6 for 44 (.136) with runners in scoring position over their first six games. Scheppers should also draw confidence from having had some success against Boston. He's allowed only one run on three hits in five innings of relief versus the Red Sox. Take Texas on the run line.

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Jack Jones

Texas Rangers +152

The Texas Rangers are showing excellent value as a big road underdog to the Boston Red Sox in Game 1 of this series Monday. I'll take advantage and back them at a great price with rookie Tanner Scheppers on the mound.

Scheppers made the Opening Day start for a reason, and though he was roughed up, this kid is still one of the best up-and-coming talents in the league. I look for him to bounce back tonight against the Red Sox.

Boston appears to be suffering a bit of a World Series hangover, which can be expected. It was just swept at home by the Milwaukee Brewers last series while getting outscored 17-8. The Red Sox are hitting .136 with runners in scoring position to start the season, which is simply a lack of focus.

John Lackey has had more trouble against the Texas Rangers in his 12-year career than any other opponent. The right-hander is 12-15 with a 6.01 ERA lifetime versus Texas, which is by far his worst ERA against any club he's faced multiple times.

Texas is 33-14 (+13.9 Units) against the money line vs. terrible speed teams that average 0.35 stolen bases or less over the last three seasons. Lackey is just 19-23 (-18.1 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -175 in his career. The Rangers are 7-0 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Texas is 11-5 in its last 16 meetings in Boston. Bet the Rangers Monday.

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SPORTS WAGERS

KANSAS CITY -108 over Tampa Bay

Matt Moore went 17-4 last year and that has him entering this season and one of the majors most overvalued hurlers. W/L records for starters in baseball is perhaps the most misleading stat in all of sports and we’ll look to take advantage of that here. Moore seems like a permanent member of the high risk choices, as his chronic control issues and high fly-ball% tendency make him susceptible to a wide range of outcomes. In his first start of the season he threw only 60 of his 106 pitches for strikes and posted a groundball/line-drive/fly-ball percentage of 37%/26%/37% with a WHIP of 1.59. This past spring, Moore walked 15 in 17.1 innings of work. Moore missed August in 2013 with a sore elbow and then September was a disaster once you get past the 2.79 ERA (poor command and a 5.07 xERA). Not only does his lack of control cause him to deal out walks, it also drives up his pitch count, making him less likely to pitch deep into games. Moore can strikeout batters but he gives the opposition far too many scoring chances and it’s going to catch up to him. Additionally, he’s not in the clear regarding his elbow issues either.

Jason Vargas comes into this year like he does every year - with a good consistency grade. His xERA shows his steadiness. Sure, some things are up (overall skills and command) and some are down (strikeout rate%, notably), but it all comes out in the wash. Vargas lost time last year to a blood clot but otherwise he's good for 200 fair-to-middling, blandly consumed innings pitched. Umm, are you yawning? We are too but Vargas almost always keeps his team in the game and had an outstanding first start against the scorching hot bats of the Tigers in which he went seven full and allowed just five hits and one run. We’ll gladly go with consistency over wildness.


COLORADO -1½ +156 over Chicago

The White Sox salvaged a game in Kansas City when Chris Sale dominated the Royals but that was Chicago’s only win over their last four games. The South Side’s pitching staff has allowed 27 runs over their previous four games prior to yesterday including 16 to the light-hitting Twins in two games. In 15.2 innings of relief work this season, Chicago’s already taxed bullpen has been tagged for 19 hits and 11 runs for an ERA of 6.32. The pen has also walked 12 batters and there is no question that we’ll see that pen (likely early) again in this one. Felipe Paulino had an up and down effort in his initial start back after missing the 2013 season following Tommy John surgery. He did strike out six in 5.1 IP, yet his fastball velocity averaged 93.5 mph, down from the 95-96 mph range he was at pre-surgery in 2012. Paulino wiggled out of some jams but that was against the Twinkies and you could see he was fighting it the entire game. Paulino’s WHIP in his first start was an alarming 1.69 and today's matchup against the Rockies at Coors Field is as tough as they come. The Rockies' lineup had a .808 OPS at home last season, best in the NL so look for Paulino and the South Side’s pen to get knocked around throughout.

Jordan Lyles, demoted when Franklin Morales nudged him out for the Rockies' fifth starter role, quickly returned when Tyler Chatwood's DL move was announced. Lyles started 65 games for the Astros from 2011-2013. His 5.35 ERA there contributed to Houston's misfortunes but his 4.19 xERA might say he deserved better. As a low-strikeout pitcher (6.2 K’s per nine) with fringe-to-average command, he'll need to maintain his near-50% groundball rate and he did precisely that with a 60% groundball rate in his first start against Miami. Lyles will likely give up some runs here but Colorado’s pen will pick him up and allow the Rockies to pull away. This one is all about fading the White Sox, Felipe Paulino and Chicago’s bullpen. 


San Diego +133 over CLEVELAND

Corey Kluber is battling everything right now. Kluber had a horrible spring in which he posted an ERA of 5.60 after giving up 33 runs in 27 frames. He subsequently went out and got rocked in his first start in Oakland by allowing eight hits and five earned runs in 3.1 innings. To make matters worse, Kluber walked three batters and struck out just two. Those three walks he surrendered to Oakland is a tell-take sign of a pitcher that is not comfortable challenging hitters. He’s scared to come at them and that’s not the type of pitcher you want to back spotting a price. Additionally, the Indians bullpen has been a complete mess thus far.

San Diego came up with a solid win in Miami yesterday after losing four straight previously and one win does wonders to a teams’ psyche. Robbie Erlin makes his first start of the season here. Last season, Erlin had a 4.11 xERA in nine starts. However, he showed why he has been a hot prospect with outstanding skills in four September starts. Lefties did hit him hard in SD and oddly enough, he had this reverse split throughout the minors too. Still, starters with Erlin’s skills don't grow on trees and the good news here is that Cleveland is hitting just .164 in 55 AB’s this season against southpaws. Erlin may need more seasoning but it could come very quickly if he solves LH batters because he had everything else working beautifully last September and this in spring training this year. We’re investing.

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